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World Journal of AIDS 2014年第2期4卷 249-257页

作者： Chris R. Kenyon Jozefien Buyze hiv/sti unit Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Belgium

Background: The extent of the differential spread of hiv around the world remains incompletely explained. This paper examines the extent to which five explanatory variables (circumcision prevalence, condom usage, sti treatment coverage, number of sex partners, partner concurrency) are correlated with peak hiv prevalence rates at a country level. Methods: We performed linear regression analysis to measure the association between each of the independent variables and the national peak hiv prevalence rates for 15 - 49 years old. Results: Our analysis shows a strong positive association between peak hiv prevalence and the prevalence of partner concurrency (rho = 0.853;P = 0.001). There was no association between peak hiv prevalence and circumcision prevalence (rho = 0.118;P = 0.161), condom usage (rho = 0.048;P = 0.794), sti treatment coverage (rho = 0.143;P = 0.136) and number of sex partners (rho = 0.134;P = 0.298) at a global level. There was however a strong negative association between peak hiv prevalence and circumcision prevalence when the analysis was limited to countries within sub Saharan Africa (rho = -0.659;P = 0.000). Sub Saharan Africa had the second and third highest circumcision rates in the world when the circumcision prevalence thresholds were set at 80% and 20% respectively. Conclusions: Differences in the prevalence of circumcision likely influence differential peak hiv prevalence within sub Saharan Africa but are implausible causes for the higher hiv prevalence in this region. The close association found between concurrency and hiv prevalence requires replication in further studies.

关键词： hiv Sexual Network Epidemiology Peak hiv Prevalence Ecological

The Prevalence of Syphilis Is Associated with the Prevalence of Male Point-Concurrency: An Ecological Analysis

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World Journal of AIDS 2015年第2期5卷 131-139页

作者： Chris Richard Kenyon Kara Osbak Sexually Transmitted Infections hiv/sti unit Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Belgium Division of Infectious Diseases and hiv Medicine University of Cape Town Cape Town South Africa hiv/sti unit Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Belgium

Objective: The prevalence of syphilis differs considerably between different populations and indi-vidual level risk factors such as number of sex partners seem unable to completely explain these differences. The effect of network level factors, such as the prevalence of partner concurrency, on syphilis prevalence has not hitherto been investigated. Study design: Linear regression was per-formed to assess the relationship between the prevalence of male concurrency and prevalence of syphilis in each of 11 countries for which we could obtain comparable data. The data for concur-rency prevalence was taken from the WHO/Global Programme on AIDS (GPA) sexual behavioural surveys. Syphilis prevalence rates were obtained from antenatal syphilis serology surveys done in the same countries. In addition, we used linear regression to assess if there was a relationship between syphilis and concurrency prevalence of various racial and ethnic groups within the united States and South Africa. Results: In the international study, we found a strong relationship between the prevalence of male concurrency and syphilis prevalence (r = 0.79, P = 0.003). In the subnational studies, the relationship between concurrency and syphilis prevalence was positive in all cases but was only statistically significant so in the case of South Africa’s racial groups (r = 0.98, P = 0.01). Conclusions: The findings of an ecological-level association between syphilis and partner concurrency need to be replicated but suggest that efforts directed towards decreasing partner concurrency may reduce syphilis prevalence.

关键词： Concurrency Sexual Network hiv Syphilis

The Ebola virus:a review of progress and development in research

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Biomedicine 2014年第12期4卷 928-936页

作者： Yitades Gebre Teshome Gebre Abena Peters hiv/sti TB and Viral HepatitisPan American Health Organization/World Health Organization(PAHO/WHO) Regional Director for Africa Task Force for Global Health

The Ebola virus was identified in the year 1976 and has caused periodic outbreaks in West African *** disease has a case fatality rate up to 90%.Ebola has been classified as a biosafety level four pathogen and there is no currently approved vaccine or treatment for the ***,remarkable progress has been demonstrated by researchers in understanding the pathogenicity of the Ebola *** animal models have been cultivated to develop diagnostics,vaccines and therapeutic drugs.

关键词： Ebola virus disease Ebola vaccines Ebola therapeutic drugs Ebola non-human primates Ebola research

Case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) in Iran-a term of caution

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2020年第7期13卷 328-330页

作者： Vahid Rahmanian Mohammad Hasan Rabiee Hamid Sharifi Zoonoses Research Center Jahrom University of Medical SciencesJahromIran Department of Epidemiology Faculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran hiv/sti Surveillance Research Center WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to 72 countries by the time of writing this report on 4th March 2020[1].On 20th February 2020,the first two confirmed deaths from COVID-19were reported in *** 4th March 2020,2 922 confirmed and92 death cases have also been reported till 4th March 2020 in Iran(Figure 1)[1].A key question that remains unanswered or controversial among the public,media,and researchers is the exact COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) in *** does the CFR in Iran appear to be higher compared to the rest of the world until now?Or why the fatality rate is high at the beginning of the epidemic in Iran?

关键词： Figure fatal Iran

Prediction of malaria cases in the southeastern Iran using climatic variables:An 18-year SARIMA time series analysis

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第10期14卷 463-471页

作者： Hamid Reza Tohidinik Hossein Keshavarz Mehdi Mohebali Mandana Sanjar Gholamreza Hassanpour hiv/sti Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Center for Research of Endemic Parasites of Iran(CREPI) Tehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran Department of Medical Parasitology&Mycology School of Public HealthTehran University of Medical SciencesTehranIran

Objective:To predict future trends in the incidence of malaria cases in the southeast of Iran as the most important area of malaria using Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(SARIMA)model,and to check the effect of meteorological variables on the disease ***:SARIMA method was applied to fit a model on malaria incidence from April 2001 to March 2018 in Sistan and Baluchistan province in southeastern *** variables such as temperature,rainfall,rainy days,humidity,sunny hours and wind speed were also included in the multivariable model as ***,the best fitted model was adopted to predict the number of malaria cases for the next 12 ***:The best-fitted univariate model for the prediction of malaria in the southeast of Iran was SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12[Akaike Information Criterion(AIC)=307.4,validation root mean square error(RMSE)=0.43].The occurrence of malaria in a given month was mostly related to the number of cases occurring in the previous 1(p=1)and 12(P=1)*** inverse number of rainy days with 8-month lag(β=0.3292)and temperature with 3-month lag(β=-0.0026)were the best predictors that could improve the predictive performance of the univariate ***,SARIMA(1,0,0)(1,1,1)12 including mean temperature with a 3-month lag(validation RMSE=0.414)was selected as the final multivariable ***:The number of malaria cases in a given month can be predicted by the number of cases in the prior 1 and 12 *** number of rainy days with an 8-month lag and temperature with a 3-month lag can improve the predictive power of the model.

关键词： Malaria Time series SARIMA Forecasting Climate Iran

Spatio-temporal history of H9N2 viruses in Iran and neighbor countries by Bayesian analysis and molecular characterization

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第7期14卷 309-315页

作者： Nima Ghalekhani Saied Bokaie Sana Eybpoosh Hesameddin Akbarein Divisions of Epidemiology&Zoonoses Department of Food Hygiene and Quality ControlFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranIran hiv/sti Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Research Centre for Emerging and Reemerging Infectious DiseasesPasteur Institute of IranTehranIran

Objective: To delineate the H9N2 influenza virus circulation within Iran and its neighboring countries, the potential source of the epidemic in these countries, and its date of ***: We obtained all hemagglutinin(HA) and neuraminidase(NA) nucleotide sequences of influenza H9N2 available up to December 25, 2020 from Iran and its neighboring countries(i.e., Pakistan, Afghanistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkey, and Iraq). We also performed a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo method to infer the evolutionary dynamic and the most recent common ancestor for the HA and NA ***: H9N2 epidemic may have started in Iran and Pakistan much earlier than the other investigated countries in the region, and an ongoing bidirectional dispersion of the virus between the investigated countries was also observed. The mean time of the most recent common ancestor of H9N2 viruses was 1988 for HA, and 1992 for ***: Strains from investigated countries rooted in Pakistan and Iran. Regular surveillance of H9N2 viruses, especially in the live bird markets, enhancing the biosecurity of poultry industry and screening newly arriving immigrants and tourists from neighboring countries at border should be considered to control spread of the virus. Furthermore, surveillance of viral molecular evolution should be initiated for effective prevention of epidemic and pandemic spreads.

关键词： Influenza virus H9N2 Bayesian phylogeographic Iran

Predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis using SARIMA and Markov switching models in Isfahan, Iran: A time-series study

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2021年第2期14卷 83-93页

作者： Vahid Rahmanian Saied Bokaie Aliakbar Haghdoost Mohsen Barouni Department of Food Hygiene and Quality Control Division of Epidemiology&ZoonosesFaculty of Veterinary MedicineUniversity of TehranTehranIran hiv/sti Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Health Services Management Research Center Institute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Objective:To determine the potential effect of environment variables on cutaneous leishmaniasis occurrence using time-series models and compare the predictive ability of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average(SARIMA)models and Markov switching model(MSM).Methods:This descriptive study employed yearly and monthly data of 49364 parasitologically-confirmed cases of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan province,located in the center of Iran from January 2000 to December *** data were provided by the leishmaniasis national surveillance system,the meteorological organization of Isfahan province,and Iranian Space Agency for vegetation *** SARIMA and MSM models were implemented to examine the environmental factors of cutaneous leishmaniasis ***:The minimum relative humidity,maximum relative humidity,minimum wind speed,and maximum wind speed were significantly associated with cutaneous leishmaniasis epidemics in different lags(P<0.05).Comparing SARIMA and MSM,Akaikes information criterion(AIC),and mean absolute percentage error(MAPE)in MSM were much smaller than SARIMA models(MSM:AIC=0.95,MAPE=3.5%;SARIMA:AIC=158.93,MAPE:11.45%).Conclusions:SARIMA and MSM can be a useful tool for predicting cutaneous leishmaniasis in Isfahan *** cutaneous leishmaniasis falls into one of two states of epidemic and non-epidemic,the use of MSM(dynamic)is recommended,which can provide more information compared to models that use a single distribution for all observations(Box-Jenkins SARIMA model).

关键词： Leishmaniasis Climate factor Time series analysis Forecasting Iran

Uptake of hepatitis C direct-acting antiviral treatment in China:a retrospective study from 2017 to 2021

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2023年第2期12卷 126-126页

作者： Xinyu Du Jiarun Mi Hanchao Cheng Yuanyuan Song Yuchang Li Jing Sun Polin Chan Zhongdan Chen Simon Luo School of Health Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College Beijing China Hepatitis/TB/hiv/sti World Health Organisation Regional Office for the Western Pacific Manila The Philippines Hepatitis/TB/hiv/sti World Health Organisation Representative Office in China Beijing China IQVIA Holding Company Beijing China

Background Direct-acting antivirals(DAAs)for hepatitis C treatment in China became available since *** study expects to generate evidence to inform decision-making in a nationwide scale-up of DAA treatment in *** We described the number of standard DAA treatment at both national and provincial levels in China from 2017 to 2021 based on the China Hospital Pharmacy Audit(CHPA)*** performed interrupted time series analysis to estimate the level and trend changes of the monthly number of standard DAA treatment at national *** also adopted the latent class trajectory model(LCTM)to form clusters of the provincial-level administrative divisions(PLADs)with similar levels and trends of number of treatment,and to explore the potential enablers of the scale-up of DAA treatment at provincial *** The number of 3-month standard DAA treatment at national level increased from 104 in the last two quarters of 2017 to 49,592 in the year of *** estimated DAA treatment rates in China were 1.9%and 0.7%in 2020 and 2021,which is far below the global target of 80%.The national price negotiation at the end of 2019 resulted in DAA inclusion by the national health insurance in January *** that month,the number of treatment increased 3668 person-times(Psting services demonstrated earlier and faster scale-up of *** Central negotiations to reduce prices of DAAs resulted in inclusion of DAA treatment under the universal health insurance,which are critical elements that support scaling up access to hepatitis C treatment in ***,the current treatment rates are still far below the global *** the PLADs lagged beh

关键词： Direct-acting antiviral Hepatitis C Treatment Universal health insurance China

Tioxolone niosomes exert antileishmanial effects on Leishmania tropica by promoting promastigote apoptosis and immunomodulation

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Asian Pacific Journal of Tropical Medicine 2019年第8期12卷 365-374页

作者： Maryam Hakimi Parizi Iraj Sharifi Saeedeh Farajzadeh Abbas Pardakhty Mohammad Hossein Daie Parizi Hamid Sharifi Ali Reza Keyhani Mahshid Mostafavi Mehdi Bamorovat Ahmad Khosravi Daryoush Ghaffari Leishmaniasis Research Center Kerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Department of Pediatric dermatology Kerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Pharmaceutics Research Center Neuropharmacology InstituteKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Department of Pediatrics Kerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran hiv/sti Surveillance Research Center and WHO Collaborating Center for HIV SurveillanceInstitute for Futures Studies in HealthKerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran Research Center of Tropical and Infectious Diseases Kerman University of Medical SciencesKermanIran

Objective: To explore the antileishmanial effect of tioxolone and its niosomal form against Leishmania tropica. Methods: Tioxolone niosomes were prepared by the hydration method and were evaluated for morphology, size, release study, and encapsulation efficiency. The cytotoxicity of tioxolone and its niosomal form was measured by MTT assay, leishmanicidal activity against promastigote and amastigote by MTT assay, apoptosis by flow cytometry, IL-12, IL-10 and metacaspase gene expression levels by q-PCR. Results: Span/Tween 40 and Span/Tween 60 niosomes had good physical stability as depicted in their size distribution curves and high encapsulation efficiency(>99%). The release profile of the entrapped compounds showed Fickian’s model of tioxolone delivery based on diffusion through lipid bilayers. With the IC50 value for amastigote as(24.5±2.1) μg/mL and selectivity index as 10.5, the Span/Tween 60 niosome(NT2) had a superior effect to other drugs. The CC50 value and IC50 of promastigote value for NT2 were(257.5±24.5) μg/mL and(164.8±20.6) μg/mL, respectively. The flow cytometric analysis showed that tioxolone and niosomal forms induced apoptosis of Leishmania tropica promastigotes in a dose-dependent manner. NT2 increased the expression level of IL-12 and metacaspase genes and decreased the expression level of the IL-10 ***: Niosomes of tioxolone play an immunomodulatory role in increasing Th1 cytokine profile and inhibiting the Th2 cytokine profile. It could be used for treatment of anthroponotic cutaneous leishmaniasis.

关键词： Niosome Tioxolone Leishmania tropica Apoptosis

A Critical Appraisal of the Ideology of Monogamy’s Influence on hiv Epidemiology

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World Journal of AIDS 2016年第1期6卷 16-26页

作者： Chris Kenyon Robert Colebunders Sipho Dlamini Herman Meulemans Sizwe Zondo sti unit Institute of Tropical Medicine Antwerp Belgium Division of Infectious Diseases and hiv Medicine Department of Medicine University of Cape Town Cape Town South Africa University of Antwerp Antwerpen Belgium Department of Psychology Rhodes University Grahamstown South Africa

The linked ideas that all members of society should only engage in monogamous relationships and that these should all be based on romantic love are decided outliers from a historical perspective. Despite this, there is a widespread contemporary belief that monogamy based on love is the most ethical and natural form of partnering for humans—mononormativism. It has long been accepted that our values influence how we frame and interpret scientific questions. In the article we ask, using the example of mononormativism, how does an individual’s sexual ethics influence how they pursue hiv epidemiology? Using a Social Intuitionalist theoretical framework, we argue that a belief in monogamy-as-normative has contributed to certain researchers dismissing the evidence that the generalized hiv epidemics in parts of Africa are due to higher rates of non-monogamy.

关键词： hiv Epidemiology Concurrency Polygamy Mononormativity Social-Intuitionalism