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Simulations of the Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillation by the Atmospheric General Circulation Model of the Beijing climate center

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2010年第5期24卷 571-583页

作者：董敏吴统文王在志张芳 Laboratory for climate Studies of CMA National Climate Center

The performance of BCC （Beijing climate center） AGCM 2.0.1 （Atmospheric General Circulation Model version 2.0.1） in simulating the tropical intraseasonal oscillation （TIO） is examined in this *** simulations are validated against observation and compared with the NCAR CAM3 （Community Atmosphere Model version 3） *** BCC AGCM2.0.1 is developed based on the original BCC AGCM （version 1） and NCAR *** reference atmosphere and reference pressure are introduced into the ***,the original prognostic variables of temperature and surface pressure become their departures from the reference atmosphere.A new Zhang-McFarlane convective parameterization scheme is incorporated into the model with a few *** modifications include those in the boundary layer process and snow cover *** simulations are run for 52 yr from 1949 to 2001 under the lower boundary conditions of observed monthly *** TIOs from the model are *** comparison shows that the NCAR CAM3 has a poor ability in simulating the *** simulated strength of the TIO is very *** energy of the eastward moving waves is similar to that of the westward moving waves in *** in observation the former is much larger than the *** seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO produced by CAM3 are also much different from the *** ability of the BCC AGCM2.0.1 in simulating the TIO is significantly *** simulated TIO is *** strength of the TIO produced by the BCC AGCM2.0.1 is close to the *** energy of eastward *** is much stronger than that of the westward moving waves,which is consistent with the *** is no significant difference in the seasonal variation and spatial distribution of the TIO between the BCC model simulation and the *** general,the BCC model performs better than CAM3 in simulating the TIO.

关键词： Beijing climate center (BCC) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) tropical intraseasonal oscillation (TIO) simulation study

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Introduction of CMIP5 Experiments Carried out with the climate System Models of Beijing climate center

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Advances in climate Change Research 2013年第1期4卷 41-49页

作者： XIN Xiao-Ge WU Tong-Wen ZHANG Jie Beijing climate center National climate center China Meteorological Administration

The climate system models from Beijing climate center, BCC_CSM1.1 and BCC_CSM1.1-M, are used to carry out most of the CMIP5 experiments. This study gives a general introduction of these two models, and provides main information on the experiments including the experiment purpose, design, and the external forcings. The transient climate responses to the CO2 concentration increase at 1% per year are presented in the simulation of the two models. The BCC_CSM1.1-M result is closer to the CMIP5 multiple models ensemble. The two models perform well in simulating the historical evolution of the surface air temperature, globally and averaged for China. Both models overestimate the global warming and underestimate the warming over China in the 20th century. With higher horizontal resolution, the BCC_CSM1.1-M has a better capability in reproducing the annual evolution of surface air temperature over China.

关键词： CMIP5 climate system model experiment BCC_CSM

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Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

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SPATIO-TEMPORAL VARIATION CHARACTERISTICS OF EXTREMELY HEAVY PRECIPITATION FREQUENCY OVER SOUTH CHINA IN THE LAST 50 YEARS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第3期20卷 279-288页

作者：陆虹陈思蓉郭媛何慧徐圣璇 climate center of guangxi center of Lightning Protection in guangxi

This paper comprehensively studies the spatio-temporal characteristics of the frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events over South China by using the daily precipitation data of 110 stations during 1961 to 2008 and the extremely heavy precipitation thresholds determined for different stations by REOF, trend coefficients, linear trend, Mann-Kendall test and variance analysis. The results are shown as follows. The frequency distribution of extremely heavy precipitation is high in the middle of South China and low in the Guangdong coast and western guangxi. There are three spatial distribution types of extremely heavy precipitation in South China. The consistent anomaly distribution is the main type. Distribution reversed between the east and the west and between the south and the north is also an important type. Extremely heavy precipitation events in South China mainly occurred in the summer-half of the year. Their frequency during this time accounts for 83.7% of the total frequency. In the 1960 s and 1980 s, extremely heavy precipitation events were less frequent while having an increasing trend from the late 1980 s. Their climatological tendency rates decrease in the central and rise in the other areas of South China, and on average the mean series also shows an upward but insignificant trend at all of the stations. South China's frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events can be divided into six major areas and each of them shows a different inter-annual trend and three of the representative stations experience abrupt changes by showing remarkable increases in terms of Mann-Kendall tests.

关键词： South China frequency of extremely heavy precipitation events spatio-temporal characteristics abrupt change

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Evaluation of the Tropical Variability from the Beijing climate center's Real-Time Operational Global Ocean Data Assimilation System

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第2期33卷 208-220页

作者： Wei ZHOU Mengyan CHEN Wei ZHUANG Fanghua XU Fei ZHENG Tongwen WU Xin WANG Laboratory for climate Studies National Climate Center China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography South China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling and Center for Earth System ScienceTsinghua University International center for climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The second-generation Global Ocean Data Assimilation System of the Beijing climate center （BCC_GODAS2.0） has been run daily in a pre-operational mode. It spans the period 1990 to the present day. The goal of this paper is to introduce the main components and to evaluate BCC_GODAS2.0 for the user community. BCC_GODAS2.0 consists of an observational data preprocess, ocean data quality control system, a three-dimensional variational （3DVAR） data assimilation, and global ocean circulation model [Modular Ocean Model 4 （MOM4）]. MOM4 is driven by six-hourly fluxes from the National centers for Environmental Prediction. Satellite altimetry data, SST, and in-situ temperature and salinity data are assimilated in real time. The monthly results from the BCC_GODAS2.0 reanalysis are compared and assessed with observations for 1990-201 I. The climatology of the mixed layer depth of BCC_GODAS2.0 is generally in agreement with that of World Ocean Atlas 2001. The modeled sea level variations in the tropical Pacific are consistent with observations from satellite altimetry on interannual to decadal time scales. Performances in predicting variations in the SST using BCC_GODAS2.0 are evaluated. The standard deviation of the SST in BCC_GODAS2.0 agrees well with observations in the tropical Pacific. BCC_GODAS2.0 is able to capture the main features of E1 Nifio Modoki I and Modoki II, which have different impacts on rainfall in southern China. In addition, the relationships between the Indian Ocean and the two types of E1 Nino Modoki are also reproduced.

关键词： operational oceanography global ocean 3DVAR E1 Nifio interannual variability

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STUDY ON THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE DECADAL VARIATIONS OF ANNUALLY FIRST RAINY SEASON PRECIPITATION OF guangxi AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE OF INDIAN OCEAN IN SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE

引用

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第2期14卷 137-140页

作者：况雪源黄梅丽林振敏黄雪松 guangxi climate center guangxi Institute of Meteorology and Disaster-Reducing Research

Decadal circulation differences between more and less rainfall periods in the annually first rainy season of guangxi and their association with sea surface temperature (SST) of the austral Indian Ocean are investigated by using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. The results are shown as follows. A pattern in which there is uniform change of the guangxi precipitation shows a 20-year decadal oscillation and a 3-year interannual change. In contrast, a pattern of reversed-phase change between the north and the south of guangxi has a 6-year interannual periodicity and quasi-biennial oscillation. In the period of more precipitation, the surface temperature in Eurasia is positively anomalous so as to lead to stronger low pressure systems on land and larger thermal contrast between land and ocean. Therefore, the air column is more unstable and ascending flows over guangxi are intensified while the Hadley cell is weakened. Furthermore, the weaker western Pacific subtropical high and South Asia High, together with a stronger cross-equatorial flow, result in the transportation of more humidity and the appearance of more precipitation. The correlation analysis indicates that the Indian Ocean SST in Southern Hemisphere is closely associated with the variation of the seasonal precipitation of guangxi on the decadal scale by influencing the Asian monsoon through the cross-equatorial flow.

关键词： guangxi annually first rainy season rainfall decadal variation SST in Indian Ocean

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Ensemble Prediction of Monsoon Index with a Genetic Neural Network Model

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2009年第6期23卷 701-712页

作者：姚才金龙赵华生 Department of Atmospheric Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University guangxi Meteorological Administration guangxi climate center

After the consideration of the nonlinear nature changes of monsoon index,and the subjective determination of network structure in traditional artificial neural network prediction modeling,monthly and seasonal monsoon intensity index prediction is studied in this paper by using nonlinear genetic neural network ensemble prediction（GNNEP）*** differs from traditional prediction modeling in the following aspects：（1）Input factors of the GNNEP model of monsoon index were selected from a large quantity of preceding period high correlation factors,such as monthly sea temperature fields,monthly 500-hPa air temperature fields,monthly 200-hPa geopotential height fields,etc.,and they were also highly information-condensed and system dimensionality-reduced by using the empirical orthogonal function（EOF）method,which effectively condensed the useful information of predictors and therefore controlled the size of network structure of the GNNEP model.（2）In the input design of the GNNEP model,a mean generating function（MGF）series of predictand（monsoon index）was added as an input factor;the contrast analysis of results of predic- tion experiments by a physical variable predictor-predictand MGF GNNEP model and a physical variable predictor GNNEP model shows that the incorporation of the periodical variation of predictand（monsoon index）is very effective in improving the prediction of monsoon index.（3）Different from the traditional neural network modeling,the GNNEP modeling is able to objectively determine the network structure of the GNNNEP model,and the model constructed has a better generalization *** the case of identical predictors,prediction modeling samples,and independent prediction samples,the prediction accuracy of our GNNEP model combined with the system dimensionality reduction technique of predictors is clearly higher than that of the traditional stepwise regression model using the traditional treatment technique of predictors,suggesting that the GNNEP model

关键词： monsoon index ensemble prediction genetic algorithm neural network mean generating function

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ANALYSIS ON INTRA-ANNUAL INHOMOGENEITY OF RAINSTORM EVENTS IN guangxi

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2014年第2期20卷 135-142页

作者：覃卫坚李栋梁雷雪梅覃志年 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology guangxi climate center guangxi Bureau of Meteorology

Based on the daily precipitation data of 83 stations in guangxi and the NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data from 1979 through 2008, the characteristics of spatial and temporal distribution and variation of the rainstorm concentration degree(RCD) and the rainstorm concentration period(RCP) are analyzed by using the methods of Monte Carlo test etc. The results are shown as follows. The rainstorm events are concentrated in April-September, taking up about 90% of the yearly rainfall total, and the percentages of rainstorms in the annual total precipitation have an increasing tendency. RCD in the east of guangxi is larger than that in the west. The RCP in the northeast and southwest of guangxi is later than that in the other regions, and has the earliest onset in the northern mountainous regions of Baise and southeast guangxi. The RCD exhibits an increasing tendency in the northwest and the coastal region while showing a decreasing tendency in the other regions. On a long-term basis, the RCP in the east and coastal region has a postponing trend but tends to be earlier in the other regions. The proposed mechanism is as follows: If the geopotential height in the south of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the West Pacific has a highly negative anomaly in winter, the western Pacific subtropical high will be strong in summer, which increases the RCD in guangxi. If the geopotential height has a highly positive anomaly in winter, the subtropical high will have a significant periodic oscillation in summer, which decreases the RCD in guangxi. The value of RCD is high(low) in the area of northern mountainous regions of guangxi and Beihai in strong(weak) South China Sea summer monsoon years, while in the other areas, the value of RCD is low(high).

关键词： rainstorm rainstorm concentration degree (RCD) Monte Carlo test guangxi

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Optimizing the key parameter to accelerate the recovery of AMOC under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 39-45页

作者： Haolan Ren Fei Zheng Tingwei Cao Qiang Wang International center for climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina College of Oceanography Hohai UniversityNanjingChina CAS Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of Sciences and Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)QingdaoChina

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation(AMOC)plays a central role in long-term climate variations through its heat and freshwater transports,which can collapse under a rapid increase of greenhouse gas forcing in climate *** studies have suggested that the deviation of model parameters is one of the major factors in inducing inaccurate AMOC *** this work,with a low-resolution earth system model,the authors try to explore whether a reasonable adjustment of the key model parameter can help to re-establish the AMOC after its *** a new optimization strategy,the extra freshwater flux(FWF)parameter is determined to be the dominant one affecting the AMOC’s *** traditional ensemble optimal interpolation(EnOI)data assimilation and new machine learning methods are adopted to optimize the FWF parameter in an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing experiment to improve the adaptability of model parameters and accelerate the recovery of *** results show that,under an abrupt 4×CO_(2) forcing in millennial simulations,the AMOC will first collapse and then re-establish by the default FWF parameter ***,during the parameter adjustment process,the saltier and colder sea water over the North Atlantic region are the dominant factors in usefully improving the adaptability of the FWF parameter and accelerating the recovery of AMOC,according to their physical relationship with FWF on the interdecadal timescale.

关键词： Recovery of AMOC 4×CO_(2)forcing Key parameter Parameter estimation Data assimilation Machine learning

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A study of the early warning signals of abrupt change in the Pacific decadal oscillation

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Chinese Physics B 2015年第8期24卷 662-673页

作者：吴浩侯威颜鹏程张志森王阔 Hunan climate center National climate center College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Zhejiang climate center

In recent years, the phenomenon of a critical slowing down has demonstrated its major potential in discovering whether a complex dynamic system tends to abruptly change at critical points. This research on the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) index has been made on the basis of the critical slowing down principle in order to analyze its early warning signal of abrupt change. The chaotic characteristics of the PDO index sequence at different times are determined by using the largest Lyapunov exponent(LLE). The relationship between the regional sea surface temperature(SST) background field and the early warning signal of the PDO abrupt change is further studied through calculating the variance of the SST in the PDO region and the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient, thereby providing the experimental foundation for the extensive application of the method of the critical slowing down phenomenon. Our results show that the phenomenon of critical slowing down, such as the increase of the variance and autocorrelation coefficient, will continue for six years before the abrupt change of the PDO index. This phenomenon of the critical slowing down can be regarded as one of the early warning signals of an abrupt change. Through calculating the LLE of the PDO index during different times, it is also found that the strongest chaotic characteristics of the system occurred between 1971 and 1975 in the early stages of an abrupt change(1976), and the system was at the stage of a critical slowing down, which proves the reliability of the early warning signal of abrupt change discovered in 1970 from the mechanism. In addition, the variance of the SST,along with the spatial distribution of the autocorrelation coefficient in the corresponding PDO region, also demonstrates the corresponding relationship between the change of the background field of the SST and the change of the PDO.

关键词： abrupt climate change critical slowing down early warning signals largest Lyapunov exponent sea surface temperature

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