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AN OBSERVATIONAL ANALYSIS OF A TORRENTIAL RAINSTORM IN THE WARM SECTOR OF SOUTH CHINA COASTAL AREAS

Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2018年第4期24卷 481-493页

作者： ZHENG Teng-fei YU Xin HUANG Jian WAN Qi-lin LIU Xian-tong Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA

On May 20 th 2007, a brief but severe downpour rainstorm occurred in the coastal areas of Maoming and Yangjiang with rainfall of 115 mm per hour. Data from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis with 1°×1° resolution, Doppler weather radar, conventional surface observations, high-altitude radiosonde and wind profiler radar were used to analyze characteristics and contributions of synoptic scale and mesoscale systems during this torrential rainstorm. The results showed that:(1) the storm was caused by a quasi-linear mesoscale convective system(MCS) and the slow-movement of this system was the primary trigger of the torrential downpour;(2) water vapor was abundant, nearly saturated and in steady state throughout the atmosphere before the storm; intrusion of the weak dry and cold air in the middle level and a striking "dry above and wet below " structure had increased the atmospheric instability;(3) low-level southwesterly airflow from a low pressure(trough) at the Beibu Gulf provided abundant water vapor at the onset of the rainstorm; a deep dry layer was formed by dry and cold air behind the high-level trough, which facilitated latent heat release;upper-level divergence and low-level convergence circulations also provided vertical uplift for warm and moist air at the lower level;(4) Topography only played a minor role as the MCS developed and strengthened over relatively flat coastal terrain. Low level density flow induced by convection triggered new convective cell generation at the leading edge of the convective system, thereby playing a key role in the change of temperature gradient at lower layers, and resulting in strengthening atmospheric instability.

关键词： south China coastal areas rainstorm in the warm sector synoptic scale systems mesoscale process

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OBSERVATIONAL STUDY ON THE PRE-TROPICAL CYCLONE SQUALL LINE OF 8 AUGUST 2007 OVER THE COAST OF SOUTH CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2016年第4期22卷 508-521页

作者：郑腾飞黄健万齐林刘显通于鑫 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA

A squall line in front of the tropical cyclone Pabuk occurred in the west of the Pearl River Delta to Zhanjiang on August 8th, 2007 when the storm approached South China. The development, structure and environmental conditions for this squall line were investigated in this study, with particular attention paid to the possible connection of this squall line with Pabuk. The observational data employed in this study are from soundings, Doppler weather radars and wind profile radars. The following six major conclusions are drawn by our observational analyses.(1) This squall line developed gradually from individual convective cells, and land breeze may be responsible for the onset of the squall line.(2) The path and intensity of the squall line were modulated by the environmental conditions. The squall line propagated along the coastline, and it was stronger on the landing side of the coastline compared with the surrounding in-land regions and oceanic regions.(3) The typical characteristics of tropical squall lines were seen in this squall line,including the cold-pool intensity, vertical structure and the wake flow stratiform precipitation at its developing and mature phases.(4) The environmental conditions of this squall line resemble those of tropical squall lines in terms of deep moist air and low convection condensation level. They also resemble mid-latitude squall lines in terms of the convective instable energy and vertical wind shear in the lower troposphere.(5) Two roles were played by the strong wind around Pabuk. On the one hand, it made the atmosphere more unstable via suppressed shallow convection and increased solar radiation. On the other hand, it enhanced the land-sea thermal contrast and therefore strengthened the sea breeze and the resultant water vapor transport. The sinking temperature inversion prevented the occurrence of low-layer weak convection and accumulated convection instability energy for the development of the strong convection.

关键词： squall line tropical cyclone land breeze environmental conditions

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CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND numerical MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第3期25卷 293-303页

作者： YU Xin ZHENG Teng-fei WAN Qi-lin XIAO Hui LIU Xian-tong WANG Ting guangdong Provincial Meteorological Observatory/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon 'Hato', the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, ***, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of 'Hato', the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on'Hato'. The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of 'Hato'included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of'Hato'was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.

关键词： super typhoon "Hato" inshore intensification sea surface temperature(SST) sensitivity test

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Impacts of New Implementing Strategies for Surface and Model Physics Perturbations in TREPS on Forecasts of Landfalling Tropical Cyclones

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1833-1858页

作者： Xubin ZHANG guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction Institute of Tropical and Marine MeteorologyCMAGuangzhou 510640China

To improve the ensemble prediction system of the tropical regional atmosphere model for the South China Sea(TREPS) in predicting landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), the impacts of three new implementing strategies for surface and model physics perturbations in TREPS were evaluated for 19 TCs making landfall in China during 2014–16. For sea surface temperature(SST) perturbations, spatially uncorrelated random perturbations were replaced with spatially correlated ones. The multiplier f, which is used to form perturbed tendency in the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization Tendency(SPPT) scheme, was inflated in regions with evident convective activity(f-inflated SPPT). Lastly, the Stochastically Perturbed Parameterization(SPP) scheme with 14 perturbed parameters selected from the planetary boundary layer, surface layer, microphysics, and cumulus convection parameterizations was added. Overall, all these methods improved forecasts more significantly for non-intensifying than intensifying TCs. Compared with f-inflated SPPT,the spatially correlated SST perturbations generally showed comparable performance but were more(less) skillful for intensifying(non-intensifying) TCs. The advantages of the spatially correlated SST perturbations and f-inflated SPPT were mainly present in the deterministic guidance for both TC track and wind and in the probabilistic guidance for reliability of wind. For intensifying TCs, adding SPP led to mixed impacts with significant improvements in probability-matched mean of modest winds and in probabilistic forecasts of rainfall;while for non-intensifying TCs, adding SPP frequently led to positive impacts on the deterministic guidance for track, intensity, strong winds, and moderate rainfall and on the probabilistic guidance for wind and discrimination of rainfall.

关键词： ensemble forecasting mesoscale TC forecasting surface perturbations perturbations for model physics

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Vertical distribution characteristics of PM in the surface layer of Guangzhou

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Particuology 2015年第3期13卷 3-9页

作者： Xuejiao Deng Fei Li Yuanhong Li Jianyong Li Hongzhi Huang Xiantong Liu Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction China Meteorological Administration(CMA) guangdong Atmosphere Sounds Technology Centre

Measurements of particulate matter （PM）, i.e., PM10, PM2.5, and PM1, have been performed on the Can- ton Tower, a landmark building in Guangzhou, at heights of 121 and 454 m since November 2010, using a GRIMM 180 aerosol particle spectrometer （Germany）. Analyses of data from November 2010 to May 2013 showed that the annual average values of PM10, PM2.5, and PM 1 at the observation height of 121 m above the ground were 44.1, 38,2, and 34.9 μg/m3, respectively, and those at 454m above the ground were 35.7, 30,4, and 27.5 μg/m3, respectively. By considering the values of the secondary concentration limits given in the Ambient Air Quality Standards issued in 2012, it was observed that the annual average values of PM10 at the observation heights of 121 and 454 m, as well as those of PM2.5 at 454 m, reached those standards. Furthermore, the over-standard amplitude of the annual average value of PM2.5 at the observation height of 121 m was 9.1%. During the observation period, the maximum daily average val- ues of PM10, PM2.5, and PMI at the observation height of 121 m were 183.3, 144.8, and 123.8 μg/m3, respectively, and those at 454 m were 102.8, 92.7, and 86.4 μg/m3. The daily average values of PM10 at the observation height of 454 m were not above the standards. The over-standard frequencies of the daily average values of PM10 and PM2.5 at the observation height of 121 m were 0.6% and 10,7% respectively, and the over-standard amplitudes were 9.0% and 24.4%, respectively. The over-standard frequency of the daily average value of PM2.5 at the observation height of 454 m was 2.0%, and the over-standard amplitude was 10.4%. Accordingly, it can be stated that the air at the observation height 454 m above the ground did not reach the secondary limit of the new standards. The pollution was most serious during winter, and the air was relatively cleaner during summer, Overall, the vertical distributions of PM10, PM2.5, and PMI decreased with height. The lapse rates showed the fo

关键词： PM10PM2.5PM10ver-standardVertical distributionSurface layer

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A Time Neighborhood Method for the Verification of Landfalling Typhoon Track Forecast

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第2期40卷 273-284页

作者： Daosheng XU Jeremy Cheuk-Hin LEUNG Banglin ZHANG Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMAGuangzhou 510640China

Landfalling typhoons can cause disasters over large *** government and emergency responders need to take measures to mitigate disasters according to the forecast of landfall position,while slight timing error can be *** reliability of operational model forecasts of typhoon landfall position needs to be evaluated beforehand,according to the forecasts and observation of historical *** the evaluation of landfalling typhoon track,the traditional method based on point-to-point matching methods could be influenced by the predicted typhoon translation ***,the traditional track evaluation method may result in a large track error even if the predicted landfall position is close to *** purpose of this paper is to address the above issue using a simple evaluation method of landfalling typhoon track forecast based on the time neighborhood *** this new method,the timing error was lessened to highlight the importance of the position error during the landfall of *** properties of the time neighborhood method are compared with the traditional method based on numerical forecast results of 12 landfalling typhoon *** demonstrated that the new method is not sensitive to the sampling frequency,and that the difference between the time neighborhood and traditional method will be more obvious when the moving speed of typhoon is moderate(between 15−30 km h^(−1)).The time neighborhood concept can be easily extended to a broader context when one attempts to examine the position error more than the timing error.

关键词： time neighborhood method typhoon track landfalling typhoon model evaluation

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A STUDY ON THE PREDICT ABILITY OF GRAPES MODEL OVER SOUTH CHINA: COMPARISONS BY TWO INITIALIZATION CONDITIONS BETWEEN ECMWF AND NCEP

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2020年第1期26卷 27-34页

作者： ZHONG Shui-xin CHEN Zi-tong guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction/Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology cma Guangzhou 510641 China

This paper aims to assess the performances of different model initialization conditions(ICs)and lateral boundary conditions between two global models(GMs),i.e.,the European Centre for Medium-Range weather Forecasts(ECMWF)and National Centers for Environmental prediction(NCEP),on the accuracy of the Global/regional Assimilation and prediction System(GRAPES)forecasts for south China.A total of 3-month simulations during the rainy season were examined and a specific case of torrential rain over guangdong Province was *** ICs exhibited cold biases over south China,as well as a strong dry bias over the Pearl River Delta(PRD).In particular,the ICs from the ECMWF had a stronger cold bias over the PRD region and a more detailed structure than *** general,the NCEP provided a realistic surface temperature compared to the ECMWF over south ***,GRAPES initialized by the NCEP had better simulations of both location and intensity of precipitation than by the *** results presented in this paper could be used as a general guideline to the operational numerical weather prediction that uses regional models driven by the GMs.

关键词： model initialization conditions GRAPES torrential rain cold bias

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ON USE OF LHN METHOD TO ASSIMILATE THE INTENSIFIED SURFACE PRECIPITATIONS FOR GRAPES_MESO MODEL INITIALIZATION

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2016年第4期22卷 544-558页

作者：吴亚丽陈德辉 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA numerical weather prediction Center China Meteorological Administration

The quantitative precipitation forecast(QPF) in very-short range(0-12 hours) has been investigated in this paper by using a convective-scale(3km) GRAPES_Meso model. At first, a latent heat nudging(LHN) scheme to assimilate the hourly intensified surface precipitation data was set up to enhance the initialization of GRAPES_Meso integration. And then based on the LHN scheme, a convective-scale prediction system was built up in considering the initial "triggering"uncertainties by means of multi-scale initial analysis(MSIA), such as the three-dimensional variational data assimilation(3DVAR), the traditional LHN method(VAR0LHN3), the cycling LHN method(CYCLING), the spatial filtering(SS) and the temporal filtering(DFI) LHN methods. Furthermore, the probability matching(PM) method was used to generate the QPF in very-short range by combining the precipitation forecasts of the five runs. The experiments for one month were carried out to validate the MSIA and PM method for QPF in very-short *** numerical simulation results showed that:(1) in comparison with the control run, the CYCLING run could generate the smaller-scale initial moist increments and was better for reducing the spin-up time and triggering the convection in a very-short time;(2) the DFI runs could generate the initial analysis fields with relatively larger-scale initial increments and trigger the weaker convections at the beginning time(0-3h) of integration, but enhance them at latter time(6-12h);(3) by combining the five runs with different convection triggering features, the PM method could significantly improve the QPF in very-short range in comparison to any single run. Therefore, the QPF with a small size of combining members proposed here is quite prospective in operation for its lower computation cost and better performance.

关键词： convective-scale latent heat nudging (LHN) very-short-range QPF multi-scale initial analysis (MSIA) probability matching (PM)

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IMPACT OF TROPICAL INTRASEASONAL OSCILLATIONS ON THE PRECIPITATION OF guangdong IN JUNES

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2015年第4期21卷 326-336页

作者：林爱兰李春晖谷德军郑彬 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather PredictionCMA

The impact of tropical intraseasonal oscillations on the precipitation of guangdong in Junes and its physical mechanism are analyzed using 30-yr(1979 to 2008), 86-station observational daily precipitation of guangdong and daily atmospheric data from NCEP-DOE Reanalysis. It is found that during the annually first rainy season(April to June),the modulating effect of the activity of intraseasonal oscillations propagating eastward along the equator(MJO) on the June precipitation in guangdong is different from that in other months. The most indicative effect of MJO on positive(negative) anomalous precipitation over the whole or most of the province is phase 3(phase 6) of strong MJO events in Junes. A Northwest Pacific subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3. Water vapor transporting along the edge of the subtropical high from Western Pacific enhances significantly the water vapor flux over guangdong, resulting in the enhancement of the precipitation. The condition is reverse during phase 6. The mechanism for which the subtropical high intensifies and extends westward during phase 3 is related to the atmospheric response to the asymmetric heating over the eastern Indian Ocean. Analyses of two cases of sustained strong rainfall of guangdong in June 2010 showed that both of them are closely linked with a MJO state which is both strong and in phase 3, besides the effect from a westerly trough. It is argued further that the MJO activity is indicative of strong rainfall of guangdong in June. The results in the present work are helpful in developing strategies for forecasting severe rainfall in guangdong and extending, combined with the outputs of dynamic forecast models, the period of forecasting validity.

关键词： climatology tropical intraseasonal oscillation eastward propagation mode guangdong precipitation in June

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INVERSION OF TEMPERATURE FROM AMSU-A AND ITS APPLICATION ON WARM-CORE OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2016年第4期22卷 559-567页

作者：袁金南蒙伟光张艳霞蒋德海李春晖毛伟康黄辉军 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/guangdong Provincial key laboratory of regional numerical weather prediction CMA

The linear regression and horizontally stepwise correction are conducted on the observational data from AMSU-A L1 B of NOAA polar orbit satellite to invert a 40-layers(from 1,000 h Pa to 0.1 h Pa) dataset of atmospheric temperature with a horizontal resolution of 0.5°×0.5° after the correction of satellite antenna pattern and limb adjustment. Case study shows that the inversion data of temperature can reveal the detail structure of warm core in tropical cyclone. We choose two categories of tropical depressions(TDs) over the South China Sea, including the non-developing TDs and developing TDs. Both of them are developed downward from the middle and upper level to the lower level. Comparison between the evolutions of warm core in the two categories of TDs indicates that the warm core is developed downward from the middle and upper troposphere to the sea surface in all the downward-developing TDs. The difference is that in the group of further developing TDs, the warm core in the upper troposphere is intensified suddenly when it is extending to the sea surface. The warm core in the upper and lower troposphere is strengthened in a meantime. But the similar feature is not observed in the non-developing TDs. Then it may be helpful to judge the TD development by monitoring the change in its warm-core structure.

关键词： warm core structure inversion of temperature from AMSU-A tropical depression over the South ChinaSea comparison analysis

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