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Risk assessment of oil and gas investment environment in countries along the Belt and Road Initiative

Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 1429-1443页

作者： Bao-Jun Tang Chang-Jing Ji Yu-Xian Zheng Kang-Ning Liu Yi-Fei Ma Jun-Yu Chen Center for Energy and Environmental Policy Research Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China School of Management and Economics Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center of Electric Vehicles in Beijing BeijingChina Sustainable Development Research institute for Economy and society of Beijing BeijingChina institute of Carbon Neutrality ShanghaiTech UniversityShanghai201210China

With the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative, China is deepening its cooperation in oil and gas resources with countries along the Initiative. In order to better mitigate risks and enhance the safety of investments, it is of significant importance to research the oil and gas investment environment in these countries for China's overseas investment macro-layout. This paper proposes an indicator system including 27 indicators from 6 dimensions. On this basis, game theory models combined with global entropy method and analytic hierarchy process are applied to determine the combined weights, and the TOPSIS-GRA model is utilized to assess the risks of oil and gas investment in 76 countries along the Initiative from 2014 to 2021. Finally, the GM(1,1) model is employed to predict risk values for 2022-2025. In conclusion, oil and gas resources and political factors have the greatest impact on investment environment risk, and 12 countries with greater investment potential are selected through cluster analysis in conjunction with the predicted results. The research findings may provide scientific decisionmaking recommendations for the Chinese government and oil enterprises to strengthen oil and gas investment cooperation with countries along the Belt and Road Initiative.

关键词： Belt and Road Initiative Oil and Gas Investment Risk assessment

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Environmental and Climate Justice in Palestine

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American Journal of Climate Change 2024年第2期13卷 251-280页

作者： Jad Isaac Jane Hilal Applied Research institute-Jerusalem (ARIJ) society Bethlehem Palestine Water and Enviromenat Department Applied Research Institute-Jerusalem Society (ARIJ) Society Bethlehem Palestine

To have a clean, safe, and functional environment is not only essential for the purpose of preservation, but also imperative for safeguarding the most fundamental of human rights. Resolution 45/94 of the United Nations (UN) General Assembly also stresses and acknowledges that: “all individuals are entitled to live in an environment adequate for their health and wellbeing” (United Nations Digital Library System, 1991). Environmental and climate justice, which: “emerged in the context of the local environmental struggles of directly oppressed groups”, is a global movement dedicated to ensuring equal protection of people’s human rights (i.e., water, health, life, etc.) in the face of the climate crisis. Moreover, health, environment and human rights are part of the 2030 agenda (in particular, SDG 1, SDG 5, SDG 6, SDG 7, SDG 13, SDG 16, SDG 17). Individually, both environmental and climate justice are rooted in an intersectional outlook, by which they highlight the common threads between communities and the people’s inclusion, irrespective of race, class, or gender, in the pursuit of justice. On the other hand, they recognise and acknowledge the role and consequences of climate change in economic, social, and political dimensions;thus, drawing emphasis on the rights of people under the emerging inequities. In the case of Palestine, the Palestinian community is increasingly becoming vulnerable to these effects and the resulting inequalities of climate change. This vulnerability stems from: 1) The right to life;clean WASH;equitable work opportunities;access to resources;and free movement;are all examples of human rights that the Israeli colonial regime infringes upon;2) Infrastructure is essential for climate adaptation: 61% of the West Bank is ultimately barred from building infrastructure (B’Tselem, 2019) and Gaza Strip has major gaps in infrastructure due to intentional destruction by Israel;3) Palestinian deprivation of the sovereign right to natural resources by Isra

关键词： Environmental Degradation Climate Change Environmental and Climate Justice Human Rights Causes and Solution

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Practical Prescribed Time Tracking Control With Bounded Time-Varying Gain Under Non-Vanishing Uncertainties

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IEEE/CAA Journal of Automatica Sinica 2024年第1期11卷 219-230页

作者： Dahui Luo Yujuan Wang Yongduan Song the Key Laboratory of Dependable Service Computing in Cyber Physical society Ministry of EducationChongqing UniversityChongqing 400044 the School of Automation Chongqing UniversityChongqing 400044 the Star institute for Intelligent Systems Chongqing 400044 IEEE

This paper investigates the prescribed-time control(PTC) problem for a class of strict-feedback systems subject to non-vanishing uncertainties. The coexistence of mismatched uncertainties and non-vanishing disturbances makes PTC synthesis nontrivial. In this work, a control method that does not involve infinite time-varying gain is proposed, leading to a practical and global prescribed time tracking control solution for the strict-feedback systems, in spite of both the mismatched and nonvanishing uncertainties. Different from methods based on control switching to avoid the issue of infinite control gain that involves control discontinuity at the switching point, in our method a softening unit is exclusively included to ensure the continuity of the control action. Furthermore, in contrast to most existing prescribed-time control works where the control scheme is only valid on a finite time interval, in this work, the proposed control scheme is valid on the entire time interval. In addition, the prior information on the upper or lower bound of gi is not in need,enlarging the applicability of the proposed method. Both the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation confirm the effectiveness of the proposed control algorithm.

关键词： Adaptive control prescribed time control(PTC) strict-feedback systems tracking control

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Multiscale spatiotemporal meteorological drought prediction:A deep learning approach

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 211-221页

作者： Jia-Li ZHANG Xiao-Meng HUANG Yu-Ze SUN Department of Earth System Science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModellingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Reliable monitoring and thorough spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought are crucial for early warning and decision-making regarding drought-related *** utilisation of multiscale methods is effective for a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrence and progression,given the complex nature of meteorological ***,the nonlinear spatiotemporal features of meteorological droughts,influenced by various climatological,physical and environmental factors,pose significant challenges to integrated prediction that considers multiple indicators and time *** address these constraints,we introduce an innovative deep learning framework based on the shifted window transformer,designed for executing spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought across multiple *** formulate four prediction indicators using the standardized precipitation index and the standard precipitation evaporation index as core methods for drought definition using the ERA5 reanalysis *** indicators span time scales of approximately 30 d and one ***-term indicators capture more anomalous variations,whereas long-term indicators attain comparatively higher accuracy in predicting future *** focus on the East Asian region,notable for its diverse climate conditions and intricate terrains,to validate the model's efficacy in addressing the complexities of nonlinear spatiotemporal *** model's performance is evaluated from diverse spatiotemporal viewpoints,and practical application values are analysed by representative drought *** results substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model in providing accurate multiscale predictions and capturing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of *** of the four drought indicators accurately delineates specific facets of the meteorological drought ***,three representative drought events,namely flash drought,sustained drought and severe drought,

关键词： Meteorological drought Spatiotemporal prediction Multiscale Swim transformer Deep learning

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global lessons on delivery of primary healthcare services for people with non-communicable diseases:convergent mixed methods

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Family Medicine and Community Health 2024年第3期12卷 13-24页

作者： Robert Mash Lisa R Hirschhorn Inayat Singh Kakar Renu John Manushi Sharma Devarsetty Praveen Stellenbosch University StellenboschSouth Africa Northwestern University ChicagoIllinoisUSA The George institute for global Health New DelhiIndia The George institute for global Health HyderabadIndia Manipal Academy of Higher Education ManipalIndia

Objective To extract key lessons on primary healthcare(PHC)service delivery strategies for non-communicable diseases(NCD)from the work of researchers funded by the global Alliance for Chronic Diseases(GACD).Design A convergent mixed methods study that extracted data using a standardised template from research projects funded by the GACD that focused on *** strategies implemented in these studies were mapped onto the PHC Performance Initiative *** qualitative interviews were conducted with researchers from purposefully selected projects to understand the strategies and contextual factors in more *** PHC contexts from low or middle-income countries(LMIC)as well as vulnerable groups within high-income *** came from all regions of the world,particularly East Asia and Pacific,sub-Saharan Africa,South Asia,Latin America and *** The study extracted data on 84 research projects and interviewed researchers from 16 research *** Research projects came from all regions of the world,and mainly focused on diabetes(35.3%),hypertension(28.3%)and mental health(27.6%).Mapped onto the PHC Performance Initiative framework:49.4%focused on high-quality PHC(particularly the comprehensiveness of NCD care,41.2%);41.2%on the availability of PHC services(particularly the competence of healthcare workers,36.5%);35.3%on population health management(particularly community-based services,35.3%);34.1%on facility organisation and management(particularly team-based care,20.0%)and 31.8%on access(particularly digital technology,23.5%).Most common strategies were task shifting and training to improve the comprehensiveness of NCD care through community-based *** factors related to inputs:infrastructure,equipment and medication,workforce(particularly community health workers),finances,health information systems and digital *** Key strategies and contextual factors to improve PHC service del

关键词： services convergent income

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A cross-sectional analysis of the effectiveness of a nutritional support programme for people with tuberculosis in Southern Madagascar using secondary data from a non-governmental organisation

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 101-102页

作者： Mara Anna Franke Julius Valentin Emmrich Fierenantsoa Ranjaharinony Onja GbrilleRavololohanitra Harizaka Emmanuel Andriamasy Samuel Knauss Nadine Muller global Digital Health Lab at Charité Center for global Health Charité – Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine London UK Ärzte Für Madagaskar E.V. Leipzig Germany Heidelberg institute of global Health Heidelberg University Heidelberg Germany Berlin institute of Health at Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany Doctors for Madagascar Antananarivo Madagascar Speciality Network: Infectious Diseases and Respiratory Medicine Charité - Universitätsmedizin Berlin Berlin Germany

Background There is a strong,bi-directional link between tuberculosis(TB)and undernutrition:TB often causes undernutrition,and undernourished people are more likely to contract TB and experience worse ***,several TB nutritional support programmes exist;however,evidence on their effectiveness is limited and *** study evaluates the effect of a nutritional support programme implemented for people with TB in the Atsimo-Andrefana region,Madagascar in *** this programme,undernourished people with TB[with a body mass index(BMI)of<18.5 kg/m]receive 0.6 L of vegetable oil and 6.0 kg of a soy-wheat blend per month throughout their TB *** We analysed secondary non-governmental organisation data collected between January and Novem-ber 2022 in the Atsimo-Andrefana region,Southern Madagascar,including information on an individual's medical conditions(e.g.,type of TB,treatment outcomes)and nutritional status measured prior to,during,and after comple-tion of treatment(e.g.,height,weight,mid-upper arm circumference).We conducted descriptive analyses of patient baseline characteristics and outcomes to assess the impact of the provided nutritional support on the BMI of people With *** A total of 1310 people with TB were included in the study[9.9%(130)children under the age of 5,32.1%(420)children between 5 and 18 years,58.0%(760)adults].55.4% of children under 5,28.1% of children between ages 5 and 18,and 81.3%of adults were undernourished at treatment initiation.42.3%(55/130)of children under 5 experi-enced severe acute malnutrition at treatment *** the average BMl of adults with TB receiving food support increased over time,from 17.1 kg/m^(2)(interquartile range:15.8-18.3,range:10.3-22.5)to 17.9 kg/m^(2)(interquartile range:16.6-19.1,range:11.9-24.1),most adults remained undernourished even after completing TB *** The current TB nutritional support programme falls short of sufficiently increasing the BM

关键词： Tuberculosis Sub-Saharan Africa Undernutrition Nutritional support

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Mobility of rhenium and selenium during chemical weathering and their implication for petrogenic organic carbon oxidation

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 740-750页

作者： Yuhong ZHANG Jin WANG Yuanxin QU Chao ZHU Zhangdong JIN State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi'an 710061China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Xi'an institute for Innovative Earth Environment Research Xi'an 710061China institute of global Environmental Change Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an 710049China

The oxidative weathering of petrogenic organic carbon(OC_(petro)) is an important source of carbon dioxide(CO_(2)) into the atmosphere on geological timescales and significantly influences the carbon cycle and global climate change. However, at present, a robust proxy to assess OC_(petro)oxidation is lacking. Riverine rhenium(Re) has emerged as a potential proxy to trace OC_(petro)oxidation, but little is known about Re sources and its relationship with OC_(petro)oxidation. To better understand the robustness of this proxy, we analyzed a shale weathering profile from the early Cambrian Shuijingtuo Formation in Chengkou County, Chongqing City, to address the mobility of Re and selenium(Se) and their relationship with the oxidation of OC_(petro)by analyses of the elemental variation and sequential extraction. The results showed that the chemical index of alteration(CIA)increases from the fresh bedrock to the weathered sections, indicating enhanced weathering intensity. Based on the sequential extraction and mass transfer coefficients(τ), Re and Se mainly exist in the organic phase of shale and are paired lost with OC_(petro) during weathering, with no obvious correlation with sulfide minerals. Furthermore, the different proportions of Re and Se loss with OC_(petro) loss can be attributed to their different geochemical behaviors during weathering. Our study supports Re as a robust proxy to trace OC_(petro) oxidation, whereas Se is the potential one. In the future, combined studies on various sedimentary rock profiles with catchment basins are needed to determine the sources of riverine Re and Se and their relationships with OC_(petro) oxidation.

关键词： Rhenium and selenium Shale Mobility OC_(petro) Chemical weathering

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Market-based solution in China to finance the clean from the dirty

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Fundamental Research 2024年第2期4卷 324-333页

作者： Haoqi Qian Rong Ma Libo Wu institute for global Public Policy Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China LSE-Fudan Research Centre for global Public Policy Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China School of Economics Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China Shanghai institute for Energy and Carbon Neutrality Strategy Fudan UniversityShanghai 200433China

Financial incentives play a key role in promoting renewable energy investments that can help China achieve the‘dual carbon’*** national emissions trading scheme(ETS)and the renewable energy portfolio standard(RPS)are two existing market-based policy instruments that can generate stable expected returns for low-carbon *** paper studies the interactive distribution effects of these two market-based *** use the micro-level thermal power plant data to investigate the abatement effects of the national ETS,in which the details show that the existing rate-based ETS will result in higher negative impacts on power units,whose installed capacities are smaller than 400 *** interactive distribution effects between the two markets will occur when the permit allocation standards of the national ETS become stricter than the existing *** in Eastern China and Northern China will face high pressure on costs in both ETS and RPS *** the levels of the permit allocation standards are set as 70%of the existing ones and the carbon price is assumed to be 200 yuan/ton in 2030,the annual market size of the national ETS will be nearly 100 billion yuan,and the annual market size is predicted to be 250 billion *** the existing rate-based national ETS,the China Certified Emission Reduction(CCER)mechanism will have an offsetting effect,which should be taken into serious consideration during the policy-making processes in the future.

关键词： Emission trading scheme Renewable energy portfolio standard Green finance Policy interactions China certified emission reduction Distribution effect

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Pollen analysis reveals the effects of uncovered interactions,pollen-carrying structures,and pollinator sex on the structure of wild bee-plant networks

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Insect Science 2024年第3期31卷 971-988页

作者： Clément Tourbez Carmelo Gómez-Martínez MiguelÁngel Gonzalez-Estévez Amparo Lazaro Mediterranean institute for Advanced Studies(UIB-CSIC) Global Change Research GroupEsporlesBalearic IslandsSpain Department of Biology Ecology AreaUniversity of the Balearic/slandsPalmaSpain

Pollination networks are increasingly used to model the complexity of interactions between pollinators and flowering plants in *** methods exist to sample these interactions,with direct observations of plant-pollinator contacts in the field being by far the most *** the identification of pollen carried by pollinators allows uncovering interactions and increasing sample sizes,the methods used to build pollen-transport networks are variable and their effect on network structure remains *** understand how interaction sampling influences the structure of networks,we analyzed the pollen found on wild bees from eight communities across Mallorca Island and investigated the differences in pollen loads between bee body parts(scopa ***)and *** then assessed how these differences,as well as the uncovered interactions not detected in the field,influenced the structure of wild bee-plant *** identified a higher quantity and diversity of pollen in the scopa than in the rest of the female body,but these differences did not lead to differences in structure between plant-pollination(excluding scopa pollen)and bee-feeding interaction(including scopa pollen)***,networks built with pollen data were richer in plant species and interactions and showed lower modularity and specialization(H2'),and higher nestedness than visitation networks based on field *** interactions with plants were stronger compared to those of males,although not ***,females were more generalist(low d')and tended to be more central in interaction networks,indicating their more key role structuring pollination networks in comparison to *** study highlights the importance of palynological data to increase the resolution of networks,as well as to understand important ecological questions such as the differences between plant-pollination and bee-feeding interaction networks,and the role of sexes in pollination.

关键词： palynology pollen-transport networks pollination role of bee sexes sampling methodology visitation networks

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Populism as a Crisis of Democratic Legitimacy:With Some References to France and the United States

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Fudan Journal of the Humanities and Social Sciences 2024年第2期17卷 193-209页

作者： Jean-Marc Coicaud Law and global Affairs Rutgers UniversityRutgersUSA Fudan institute for Advanced Study in Social Sciences ShanghaiChina

Populism combines the following characteristics:a rejection of economic policies linked to globalization;a condemnation of political and economic elites perceived as allied,directly or indirectly,to globalization policies;a nationalist conception of the national interest;a mistrust of immigration,seen as a threat to identity;as for populism’s supporters,a rather popular sociological profile,and an electoral profile that tends toward the“hard right”(“droite dure”),without ruling out bridges to the“hard left”(“gauche dure”).Having said this,I propose to defend three theses:populism is not the solution to the problems of the countries where it is developing,whether in France,the United States or elsewhere;it would be dangerous,however,to ignore the crises of which populism is the product;it is essential to take the measure of the problems that favor its emergence and to try to provide answers to them.

关键词： Populism Democratic legitimacy Hard right Hard left

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