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Downscaling Seasonal Precipitation Forecasts over East Africa with Deep Convolutional Neural Networks

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第3期41卷 449-464页

作者： Temesgen Gebremariam ASFAW Jing-Jia LUO Institute for Climate and Application research(ICAR)/CIC-FEMD/KLME/ILCEC Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of geophysics space Science and Astronomy Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa 1176Ethiopia

This study assesses the suitability of convolutional neural networks(CNNs) for downscaling precipitation over East Africa in the context of seasonal forecasting. To achieve this, we design a set of experiments that compare different CNN configurations and deployed the best-performing architecture to downscale one-month lead seasonal forecasts of June–July–August–September(JJAS) precipitation from the Nanjing University of information Science and technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUIST-CFS1.0) for 1982–2020. We also perform hyper-parameter optimization and introduce predictors over a larger area to include information about the main large-scale circulations that drive precipitation over the East Africa region, which improves the downscaling results. Finally, we validate the raw model and downscaled forecasts in terms of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics, as well as their ability to reproduce the observed precipitation extreme and spell indicator indices. The results show that the CNN-based downscaling consistently improves the raw model forecasts, with lower bias and more accurate representations of the observed mean and extreme precipitation spatial patterns. Besides, CNN-based downscaling yields a much more accurate forecast of extreme and spell indicators and reduces the significant relative biases exhibited by the raw model predictions. Moreover, our results show that CNN-based downscaling yields better skill scores than the raw model forecasts over most portions of East Africa. The results demonstrate the potential usefulness of CNN in downscaling seasonal precipitation predictions over East Africa,particularly in providing improved forecast products which are essential for end users.

关键词： East Africa seasonal precipitation forecasting downscaling deep learning convolutional neural networks(CNNs)

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Ground-based and additional science support for SMILE

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第1期8卷 275-298页

作者： J.A.Carter M.Dunlop C.Forsyth K.Oksavik E.Donovon A.Kavanagh S.E.Milan T.Sergienko R.C.Fear D.G.Sibeck M.Connors T.Yeoman X.Tan M.G.G.T.Taylor K.McWilliams J.Gjerloev R.Barnes D.D.Billet G.Chisham A.Dimmock M.P.Freeman D.-S.Han M.D.Hartinger S.-Y.W.Hsieh Z.-J.Hu M.K.James L.Juusola K.Kauristie E.A.Kronberg M.Lester J.Manuel J.Matzka I.McCrea Y.Miyoshi J.Rae L.Ren F.Sigernes E.Spanswick K.Sterne A.Steuwer T.Sun M.-T.Walach B.Walsh C.Wang J.Weygand J.Wild J.Yan J.Zhang Q.-H.Zhang Planetary Sciences Group School of Physics and AstronomyUniversity of LeicesterUniversity RoadLeicesterLE17RHUK Rutherford Appleton Laboratory space Science Technology Facilities CouncilOxfordshireUK School of space and Environment Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191China Key Laboratory of space Environment Monitoring and information Processing Ministry of Industry and Information TechnologyBeijing 100017China Department of space and Climate Physics UCLMullard Space Science LaboratoryHolmbury St.MaryDorkingSurreyRH56NTUK Birkeland Centre for space Science Department of Physics and Technology.University of BergenBergenNorway Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Calgary2500 University DriveCalgaryAlbertaCanada T2N 1N4 British Antarctic Survey CambridgeUK Swedish Institute of space Physics KirunaSweden West Highfield Campus University of SouthamptonUniversity RoadSO171BJUK Goddard space Flight Center NASAGreenbeltMarylandUSA Athabasca University AthabascaCanada ESTEC European Space AgencyNetherlands University of Saskatchewan SaskatoonCanada The Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory LaurelMarylandUSA Swedish Institude of space Physics UppsalaSE 75121Sweden Tongji University Shanghai 200092China Center for space Plasma Physics Space Science Institute4765 Walnut Street Suite BBoulderColorado80301USA Polar research Institute of China Shanghai 200136China Finnish Meteorological Institute(FMI) Finland Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences(geophysics) Ludwig Maximilian University of Munich(LMU)MunichTheresienstr.41MunichD-80333Germany Canadian space Agency MontrealCanada GFZ German research Centre for Geosciences PotsdamGermany Nagoya University Institute for Space Earth Environment ResearchCenter for Integrated Data ScienceNagoyaAichiJP 464-8601 Northumbria University Newcastle upon TyneTyne and WearUK NE18ST National space Science Center Chinese Academy SciencesBeijing 100190China Arctic geophysics University Centre in Svalbard

The joint European space Agency and Chinese Academy of Sciences Solar wind Magnetosphere Ionosphere Link Explorer(SMILE)mission will explore global dynamics of the magnetosphere under varying solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field conditions,and simultaneously monitor the auroral response of the Northern Hemisphere *** these large-scale responses with medium and fine-scale measurements at a variety of cadences by additional ground-based and space-based instruments will enable a much greater scientific impact beyond the original goals of the SMILE ***,we describe current community efforts to prepare for SMILE,and the benefits and context various experiments that have explicitly expressed support for SMILE can offer.A dedicated group of international scientists representing many different experiment types and geographical locations,the Ground-based and Additional Science Working Group,is facilitating these *** include constructing an online SMILE Data Fusion Facility,the discussion of particular or special modes for experiments such as coherent and incoherent scatter radar,and the consideration of particular observing strategies and spacecraft *** anticipate growing interest and community engagement with the SMILE mission,and we welcome novel ideas and insights from the solar-terrestrial community.

关键词： magnetosphere ionosphere magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling ground-based experimentation SMILE conjunctions missions

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The seismicity in the middle section of the Altyn Tagh Fault system revealed by a dense nodal seismic array

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Earthquake research Advances 2024年第3期4卷 7-15页

作者： Shi Yao Tao Xu Yingquan Sang Lingling Ye Tingwei Yang Chenglong Wu Minghui Zhang Key Laboratory of Mineral Resources Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Department of Earth and space Sciences Southern University of Science and TechnologyShenzhen518055China Innovation Academy for Earth Science Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing100049China School of information Engineering Shandong University of AeronauticsBinzhou256603China

The left-lateral Altyn Tagh Fault(ATF) system is the northern boundary of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, separating the Tarim Basin and the Qaidam Basin. The middle section of ATF has not recorded any large earthquakes since1598 AD, so the potential seismic hazard is unclear. We develope an earthquake catalog using continuous waveform data recorded by the Tarim-Altyn-Qaidam dense nodal seismic array from September 17 to November23, 2021 in the middle section of ATF. With the machine learning-based picker, phase association, location, match and locate workflow, we detecte 233 earthquakes with M_L-1–3, far more than 6 earthquakes in the routine catalog. Combining with focal mechanism solutions and the local fault structure, we find that seismic events are clustered along the ATF with strike-slip focal mechanisms and on the southern secondary faults with thrusting focal mechanisms. This overall seismic activity in the middle section of the ATF might be due to the northeastward transpressional motion of the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau block at the western margin of the Qaidam Basin.

关键词： Altyn Tagh Fault Machine learning Seismicity Dense seismic array

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Formation and growth of nanophase iron particles on the surface of Mercury revealed by experimental study

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Acta Geochimica 2024年第4期43卷 774-784页

作者： Ronghua Pang Yang Li Chen Li Pengfei Zhang Zhuang Guo Sizhe Zhao Han Yu Li Wang Chenxi Zhu Shuangyu Wang Kairui Tai Qinwei Zhang Yuanyun Wen Rui Li Center for Lunar and Planetary Sciences Institute of GeochemistryChinese Academy of SciencesGuiyangChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology Chinese Academy of SciencesHefeiChina Institute of Remote Sensing and Geographical information System School of Earth and Space SciencesPeking UniversityBeijingChina State Key Laboratory of Lunar and Planetary Sciences Macao University of Science and TechnologyMacaoChina Faculty of Metallurgical and Energy Engineering Kunming University of Science and TechnologyKunmingChina State Key Laboratory of High Performance Ceramics and Superfi ne Microstructures Shanghai Institute of CeramicsChinese Academy of SciencesShanghaiChina Laboratory for space Environment and Physical Sciences Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbinChina research Center for Planetary Science College of Earth ScienceChengdu University of TechnologyChengduChina Key Laboratory of Planetary Sciences Purple Mountain ObservatoryChinese Academy of SciencesNanjingChina

space weathering is a primary factor in altering the composition and spectral characteristics of surface materials on airless ***,current research on space weathering focuses mainly on the Moon and certain types of *** particular,the impacts of meteoroids and micrometeoroids,radiation from solar wind/solar flares/cosmic rays,and thermal fatigue due to temperature variations are being *** weathering produces various transformation products such as melted glass,amorphous layers,iron particles,vesicles,and solar wind *** in turn lead to soil maturation,changes in visible and near-infrared reflectance spectra(weakening of characteristic absorption peaks,decreased reflectance,increased near-infrared slope),and alterations in magnetism(related to small iron particles),collectively termed the“lunar model”of space weathering *** to the Moon and asteroids,Mercury has unique spatial environmental characteristics,including more intense meteoroid impacts and solar thermal radiation,as well as a weaker particle radiation environment due to the global distribution of its magnetic ***,the lunar model of space weathering may not apply to *** studies have extensively explored the eff ects of micrometeoroid ***,this work focuses on the eff ects of solar-wind particle radiation in global magnetic-field distribution and on the weathering transformation of surface materials on Mercury under prolonged intense solar *** the utilization of highvalence state,heavy ion implantation,and vacuum heating simulation experiments,this paper primarily investigates the weathering transformation characteristics of the major mineral components such as anorthite,pyroxene,and olivine on Mercury’s surface and compares them to the weathering transformation model of the *** experimental results indicate that ion implantation at room temperature is insufficient to generate np-Fe^(0)directly but

关键词： Mercury space weathering Np-Fe^(0) Solar thermal radiation Solar wind

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Characterization and degradation of β-Sn particles in thermal aged Pb-rich solder joint for low-temperature co-fired ceramic(LTCC) applications

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Rare Metals 2024年第10期43卷 5346-5361页

作者： Jin-Hong Liu Zhe Zhu Qiang-Qiang Nie Jun-Fu Liu Peng He Shu-Ye Zhang State Key Laboratory of Advanced Welding and Joining Harbin Institute of Technology Anhui Key Laboratory of Microsystem East China Research Institute of Microelectronics School of Materials Science and Engineering Hefei University of Technology

High-lead solder joints are still playing an indispensable role in military and space ***, in-depth characterization of high-lead solder joints and the underlying degradation mechanisms remain unexplored. This research first performed aging tests on Sn10Pb90 solder joints, the shear strength at room and elevated temperatures gradually reduced, and the resistance increased. Here, a two-layered Ni–Sn intermetallic compound(IMC) structure was identified using transmission electron microscopy(TEM), which could be attributed to the change of Sn content in the solder. Moreover, the internal annealing twin of a Sn particle was discovered,which could be attributed to creeping induced by thermal expansion coefficient(CTE) difference between Sn and *** analysis of partial and whole annealing twins was conducted through high-resolution TEM(HRTEM).Finally, four degradation mechanisms were *** of the IMC layer would result in increased brittleness and resistivity. For particle coarsening, apart from diminishing the ductility and toughness of the solder joint, it would also accelerate the creeping rate by weakening the phase boundary strength. Regarding voids and cracks induced by phase boundary sliding, wedgeshaped cracking and pore-shaped cracking were discovered and their formation was analyzed. Most importantly, the consumption of Sn resulted in a depletion of wettable layer,leading to the formation of Pb streams and isolated IMC islands, also known as the spalling and delamination of IMCs. Pb diffusion followed a spiral path, which was mutually influenced by orientation misfit and concentration gradient. A technique to prevent cracking was *** research is expected to provide significant technical references for high-lead solder joints.

关键词： Aging Degradation mechanisms High-lead solder joints Properties TEM characterization

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Late Mesozoic Exhumation of the Huangling Massif:Constraints on the Evolution of the Middle Yangtze River

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Acta Geologica Sinica(English Edition) 2024年第1期98卷 250-264页

作者： SU Jianchao LIN Xu LI Chang’an Jolivet MARC WU Lin CHENG Feng DENG Bin WU Zhonghai CHEN Xiaokang HU Chengwei School of Geography and information Engineering China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China College of Civil Engineering and Architecture China Three Gorges UniversityYichangHubei 443002China Géosciences Rennes CNRS-UMR6118Univ RennesRennesFrance State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBejing 100029China Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution Ministry of EducationSchool of Earth and Space SciencesPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China State Key Laboratory of Oil and Gas Reservoir Geology and Exploitation/Chengdu University of technology Chengdu 100871China Institute of Geological Mechanics Chinese Academy of Geological ScienceBeijing 100081China

Plate subduction leads to complex exhumation processes on *** Huangling Massif lies at the northern margin of the South China *** the Huangling Massif was exhumed as a watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River during the Mesozoic remains under *** examined the exhumation history of the Huangling Massif based on six granite bedrock samples,using apatite fission track(AFT)and apatite and zircon(U-Th)/He(AHe and ZHe)*** samples yielded ages of 157–132 Ma(ZHe),119–106 Ma(AFT),and 114–72 Ma(AHe),*** modeling revealed that three phases of rapid cooling occurred during the Late Jurassic–Early Cretaceous,late Early Cretaceous,and Late *** exhumation processes led to the high topographic relief responsible for the emergence of the Huangling *** integrated of our new data with published sedimentological records suggests that the Huangling Massif might have been the watershed of the middle reaches of the Paleo-Yangtze River since the *** that time,the rivers flowed westward into the Sichuan Basin and eastward into the Jianghan *** subduction of the Pacific Plate beneath the Asian continent in the Mesozoic deeply influenced the geomorphic evolution of the South China Block.

关键词： apatite zircon (U-Th)/He fission track Huangling Massif Yangtze River

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大气CO_(2)和古地理共同控制新生代印太暖池的演化

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Science Bulletin 2024年第9期69卷 1323-1331页

作者：张冉柳中晖姜大膀俞永强张仲石杨一博谭宁司东张强周鑫 Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Earth Sciences The University of Hong KongHong Kong 999077China Department of Atmospheric Science School of Environmental StudiesChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Science Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Cenozoic Geology and Environment Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric Evolution Institute of Geology and GeophysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China School of Earth and space Sciences University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China

The Indo-Pacific warm pool(IPWP) is crucial for regional and global climates. However, the development of the IPWP and its effect on the regional climate during the Cenozoic remain unclear. Here, using a compilation of sea surface temperature(SST) records(mainly since the middle Miocene) and multimodel paleoclimate simulations, our results indicated that the extent, intensity and warmest temperature position of the IPWP changed markedly during the Cenozoic. Specifically, its extent decreased, its intensity weakened, and its warmest temperature position shifted from the Indian to western Pacific Ocean over time. The atmospheric CO_(2) dominated its extent and intensity, while paleogeography, by restricting the distribution of the Indian Ocean and the width of the tropical seaways, controlled the shift in its warmest temperature position. In particular, the eastward shift to the western Pacific Ocean from the middle to late Miocene inferred from compiled SST records likely resulted from the constriction of tropical seaways. Furthermore, by changing the atmospheric thermal structure and atmospheric circulation,the reduced extent and intensity of the IPWP decreased the annual precipitation in the western Indian Ocean, eastern Asia and Australia, while the shift in the warmest temperature position from the Indian to western Pacific Ocean promoted aridification in Australia. Qualitative model-data agreements are obtained for both the IPWP SST and regional climate. From the perspective of past warm climates with high concentrations of atmospheric CO_(2), the expansion and strengthening of the IPWP will occur in a warmer future and favor excessive precipitation in eastern Asia and Australia.

关键词： Indo-Pacific warm pool Cenozoic Atmospheric CO_(2) Paleogeography

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Theoretical study of superradiant masing with solid-state spins at room temperature

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2024年第6期67卷 38-47页

作者： Qilong Wu Yuan Zhang Hao Wu Shi-Lei Su Kai-Kai Liu Mark Oxborrow Chong-Xin Shan Klaus Mølmer Henan Key Laboratory of Diamond Optoelectronic Materials and Devices Key Laboratory of Material Physics Ministry of EducationSchool of Physics and MicroelectronicsZhengzhou UniversityZhengzhou 450052China Institute of Quantum Materials and Physics Henan Academy of SciencesZhengzhou 450046China Center for Quantum technology research and Key Laboratory of Advanced Optoelectronic Quantum Architecture and Measurements School of PhysicsBeijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing 100081China Beijing Academy of Quantum information Sciences Beijing 100193China Department of Materials Imperial College LondonLondon SW72AZUK Niels Bohr Institute University of CopenhagenCopenhagen 2100Denmark

Steady-state superradiance and superradiant lasing attract significant attentions in the field of optical lattice clocks,but have not been achieved yet due to the technical challenges and atom loss *** this article,we propose that their counter-part may be observed in the microwave domain with solid-state spins,i.e.,nitrogen-vacancy center spins and pentacene molecular spins,coupled to microwave resonator at room temperature with realistic technical *** validate our proposal,we investigate systematically the system dynamics and steady-state by solving quantum master equations for the multi-level and multi-process dynamics of trillions of *** calculations show that the superradiant Rabi oscillations occur firstly due to transitions among different Dicke states,and the subsequent continuous-wave superradiant masing can achieve a linewidth well below *** work may guide further exploration of transient and steady-state superradiant masing with the mentioned and other solid-state spins *** ultra-narrow linewidth may find applications in deep-space communications,radio astronomy and high-precision metrology.

关键词： solid-state spins superradiance maser

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Seasonal Prediction of Summer Precipitation over East Africa Using NUIST-CFS1.0

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第3期39卷 355-372,553-557页

作者： Temesgen Gebremariam ASFAW Jing-Jia LUO Institute for Climate and Application research(ICAR)/CICFEM/KLME/ILCEC Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of geophysics space Science and Astronomy Addis Ababa UniversityAddis Ababa 1176Ethiopia

East Africa is particularly vulnerable to precipitation variability, as the livelihood of much of the population depends on rainfed agriculture. Seasonal forecasts of the precipitation anomalies, when skillful, can therefore improve implementation of coping mechanisms with respect to food security and water management. This study assesses the performance of Nanjing University of information Science and technology Climate Forecast System version 1.0(NUISTCFS1.0) on forecasting June–September(JJAS) seasonal precipitation anomalies over East Africa. The skill in predicting the JJAS mean precipitation initiated from 1 May for the period of 1982–2019 is evaluated using both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics on grid cell and over six distinct clusters. The results show that NUIST-CFS1.0 captures the spatial pattern of observed seasonal precipitation climatology, albeit with dry and wet biases in a few parts of the region. The model has positive skill across a majority of Ethiopia, Kenya, Uganda, and Tanzania, whereas it doesn’t exceed the skill of climatological forecasts in parts of Sudan and southeastern Ethiopia. Positive forecast skill is found over regions where the model shows better performance in reproducing teleconnections related to oceanic SST. The prediction performance of NUIST-CFS1.0 is found to be on a level that is potentially useful over a majority of East Africa.

关键词： East Africa seasonal precipitation forecasts probabilistic verification ensemble prediction

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Multi-scale pressure-balanced structures in the solar wind observed by WIND

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Chinese Science Bulletin 2012年第12期57卷 1421-1428页

作者： YAO Shuo TU ChuanYi HE JianSen2 WEI WenBo MENG XiaoHong School of geophysics and information technology China University of Geosciences （Beijing） Beijing 100083 China School of Earth and space Sciences Peking University Beijing 100871 China

This work detects multi-scale, from hour to seconds, pressure-balanced structures (PBSs) in the solar wind based on the anti- correlation between the plasma thermal pressure and the magnetic pressure measured by WIND at 1 AU on April 5th, 2001. In our former research based on Cluster measurements, we showed the anti-correlation between the electron density and the magnetic field strength in multi-scales, and we supposed these structures may be pressure-balanced structures. Thus, in this work we aim to prove our speculation by the direct evidence on pressure measurements. Different from our previous work, we apply the WIND measurements this time, for they have both the magnetic pressure and the plasma pressure which Cluster could not offer. We use the wavelet cross-coherence method to analyze the correlation between the plasma pressure (P th ) and the magnetic pressure (P B ), and also the electron density (N e ) and the magnetic field strength (B) on various scales. We observe the anti-correlation between P th and P B distributed at different temporal scales ranging from 1000 s down to 10 s. This result directly indicates the existence of pressure- balanced structures (PBSs) with different sizes in the solar wind. Further, We compare the wavelet cross correlation spectrum of P th -P B and N e -B. We notice that the two spectra are similar in general. Thus this result confirms that the relation between P th -P B and N e -B are consistent with each other in the PBSs we study. Moreover, we compare the power spectrum density (PSD) of relative N e fluctuation with our previous work based on Cluster measurements. The two spectra show similar trend with Komolgorov's -5/3 as their slopes. This may imply the similarity of the structures observed by both WIND and Cluster spacecrafts. Finally, we discuss the possible formation mechanisms for these multi-scale pressure-balanced structures. Our result is important to support the existence of multi-scale PBSs from one-hour scale

关键词：多尺度结构压力平衡太阳风用户交换机压力测量等离子体压力平衡结构磁场强度

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