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Seasonal Prediction of the Record-Breaking Northward Shift of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in July 2021

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第3期40卷 410-427页

作者： Shuai HU Tianjun ZHOU Bo WU Xiaolong CHEN State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The unprecedented Zhengzhou heavy rainfall in July 2021 occurred under the background of a northward shift of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH).Although the occurrence of this extreme event could not be captured by seasonal predictions,a skillful prediction of the WPSH variation might have warned us of the increased probability of extreme weather events in Central and Northern ***,the mechanism for the WPSH variation in July 2021 and its seasonal predictability are still ***,the observed northward shift of the WPSH in July 2021 is shown to correspond to a meridional dipole pattern of the 850-hPa geopotential height to the east of China,the amplitude of which became the strongest since *** meridional dipole pattern is two nodes of the Pacific–Japan *** investigate the predictability of the WPSH variation,a 21-member ensemble of seasonal predictions initiated from the end of June 2021 was *** predictable and unpredictable components of the meridional dipole pattern were identified from the ensemble *** predictable component is driven by positive precipitation anomalies over the tropical western *** positive precipitation anomalies are caused by positive horizonal advection of the mean moist enthalpy by southwesterly anomalies to the northwestern flank of anticyclonic anomalies excited by the existing La Niña,which is skillfully predicted by the *** leading mode of the unpredictable component is associated with the atmospheric internal intraseasonal oscillations,which are not initialized in the *** relative contributions of the predictable and unpredictable components to the observed northward shift of the WPSH at 850 hPa are 28.0%and 72.0%,respectively.

关键词： western pacific subtropical high seasonal prediction seasonal predictability La Niña Pacific-Japan pattern

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CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1911-1922页

作者： Shuai HU Bo WU Yiming WANG Tianjun ZHOU Yongqiang YU Bian HE Pengfei LIN Qing BAO Hailong LIU Kangjun CHEN Shuwen ZHAO State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100864China

The outputs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System(FGOALSf3-L)model for the decadal climate prediction project(DCPP)of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)are described in this *** FGOALS-f3-L was initialized through the upgraded,weakly coupled data assimilation scheme,referred to as EnOI-IAU,which assimilates observational anomalies of sea surface temperature(SST)and upper-level(0–1000-m)ocean temperature and salinity profiles into the coupled ***,nine ensemble members of 10-year hindcast/forecast experiments were conducted for each initial year over the period of 1960–2021,based on initial conditions produced by three initialization *** hindcast and forecast experiments follow the experiment designs of the Component-A and Component-B of the DCPP,*** decadal prediction output datasets contain a total of 44 monthly mean atmospheric and oceanic *** preliminary evaluation indicates that the hindcast experiments show significant predictive skill for the interannual variations of SST in the north Pacific and multi-year variations of SST in the subtropical Pacific and the southern Indian Ocean.

关键词： CMIP6 DCPP FGOALS-f3-L decadal prediction model initialization

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The Application of Flux-Form Semi-Lagrangian Transport Scheme in a Spectral Atmosphere Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2013年第1期30卷 89-100页

作者：王晓聪刘屹岷吴国雄 Shian-Jiann LIN 包庆 State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences noaa/geophysical fluid dynamics laboratory Princeton UniversityPrincetonNew Jersey

A flux-form semi-Lagrangian transport scheme （FFSL） was implemented in a spectral atmospheric GCM developed and used at IAP/LASG. Idealized numerical experiments show that the scheme is good at shape preserving with less dissipation and dispersion, in comparison with other conventional schemes, hnportantly, FFSL can automatically maintain the positive definition of the transported tracers, which was an underlying problem in the previous spectral composite method （SCM）. To comprehensively investigate the impact of FFSL on GCM results, we conducted sensitive experiments. Three main improvements resulted： first, rainfall simulation in both distribution and intensity was notably improved, which led to an improvement in precipitation frequency. Second, the dry bias in the lower troposphere was significantly reduced compared with SCM simulations. Third, according to the Taylor diagram, the FFSL scheme yields simulations that are superior to those using the SCM： a higher correlation between model output and observation data was achieved with the FFSL scheme, especially for humidity in lower troposphere. However, the moist bias in the middle and upper troposphere was more pronounced with the FFSL scheme. This bias led to an over-simulation of precipitable water in comparison with reanalysis data. Possible explanations, as well as solutions, are discussed herein.

关键词： advection precipitation spectral composite method flux-form semi-Lagrangian Spectral Atmospheric Model of the IAP/LASG (SAMIL)

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Negligible Warming Caused by Nord Stream Methane Leaks

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第4期40卷 549-552页

作者： Xiaolong CHEN Tianjun ZHOU State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Unanticipated sabotage of two underwater pipelines in the Baltic Sea(Nord Stream 1 and 2)happened on 26September *** quantities of natural gas,primarily methane,were released into the atmosphere,which lasted for about one *** a more powerful greenhouse gas than CO_(2),the potential climatic impact of methane is a global *** multiple methods and datasets,a recent study reported a relatively accurate magnitude of the leaked methane at 0.22±0.03 million tons(Mt),which was lower than the initial estimate in the immediate aftermath of the *** an energy conservation framework used in IPCC AR6,we derived a negligible increase in global surface air temperature of 1.8×10^(-5)℃ in a 20-year time horizon caused by the methane leaks with an upper limit of 0.25 *** the resultant warming from this methane leak incident was minor,future carbon release from additional Earth system feedbacks,such as thawing permafrost,and its impact on the methane mitigation pathways of the Paris Agreement,warrants investigation.

关键词： Nord Stream methane leak global warming potential climatic impact

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New Opportunities for Neutrons in Environmental and Biological Sciences

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Frontiers of Environmental Science & Engineering 2024年第7期18卷 179-186页

作者： Alexander Johs Shuo Qian Leighton Coates Brian H.Davison James G.Elkins Xin Gu Jennifer Morrell-Falvey Hugh O'Neill Jeffrey M.Warren Eric M.Pierce Kenneth Herwig Oak Ridge National laboratory Oak RidgeTN37831USA

The use of neutron methods in environmental and biological sciences is rapidly emerging and accelerating with the development of new instruments at neutron user *** article,based on a workshop held at Oak Ridge National laboratory(ORNL),offers insights into the application of neutron techniques in environmental and biological *** highlight recent advances and identify key challenges and potential future research *** include soil and rhizosphere processes,root water dynamics,plant-microbe interactions,structure and dynamics of biological systems,applications in synthetic biology and enzyme engineering,next-generation bioproducts,biomaterials and bioenergy,nanoscale structure,and fluid dynamics of porous materials in *** provide an outlook on emerging opportunities with an emphasis on new capabilities that will be enabled at the Spallation Neutron Source Second Target Station currently under design at *** mission of scientific neutron user facilities worldwide is to enable science using state-of-the-art neutron *** aim to encourage researchers in the environmental and biological research community to explore the unique capability afforded by neutrons at these facilities.

关键词： Neutrons Environment Biology Neutron imaging Neutron scattering Second Target Station(STS)

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The Linkage between Midwinter Suppression of the North Pacific Storm Track and Atmospheric Circulation Features in the Northern Hemisphere

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第3期39卷 502-518页

作者： Minghao YANG Chongyin LI Xin LI Xiong CHEN Lifeng LI College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The midwinter suppression(MWS) of the North Pacific storm track(NPST) has been an active research topic for decades. Based on the daily-mean NCEP/NCAR reanalysis from 1948 to 2018, this study investigates the MWS-related atmospheric circulation characteristics in the Northern Hemisphere by regression analysis with respect to a new MWS index, which may shed more light on this difficult issue. The occurrence frequency of the MWS of the upper-tropospheric NPST is more than 0.8 after the mid-1980 s. The MWS is accompanied by significantly positive sea-level pressure anomalies in Eurasia and negative anomalies over the North Pacific, which correspond to a strengthened East Asian winter monsoon. The intensified East Asian trough and atmospheric blocking in the North Pacific as well as the significantly negative low-level air temperature anomalies, lying upstream of the MNPST, are expected to be distinctly associated with the MWS. However, the relationship between the MWS and low-level atmospheric baroclinicity is somewhat *** the diagnostics of the eddy energy budget, it is identified that the inefficiency of the barotropic energy conversion related to the barotropic governor mechanism does not favor the occurrence of the MWS. In contrast, weakened baroclinic energy conversion, buoyancy conversion, and generation of eddy available potential energy by diabatic heating are conducive to the occurrence of the MWS. In addition, Ural blocking in the upstream region of the MNPST may be another candidate mechanism associated with the MWS.

关键词： midwinter suppression North Pacific storm track anomalous atmospheric circulation eddy energy budget

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Hole cleaning evaluation and installation spacing optimization of cuttings bed remover in extended-reach drilling

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Petroleum Science 2024年第3期21卷 2005-2022页

作者： Shuo Peng Wen-Jun Huang De-Li Gao MOE Key laboratory of Petroleum Engineering China University of Petroleum-BeijingBeijing102249China State Key laboratory of Petroleum Resources and Engineering China University of Petroleum-BeijingBeijing102249China

In extended-reach or long-horizontal drilling,cuttings usually deposit at the bottom of the *** cuttings accumulate to a certain thickness,complex problems such as excessive torque and drag,tubing buckling,and pipe stuck probably occur,which results in a lot of non-productive time and remedial *** bed remover can efficiently destroy deposited cuttings in time through hydraulic and mechanical stirring *** paper aims to build a method for hole cleaning evaluation and installation spacing optimization of cuttings bed remover to improve the wellbore cleaning ***,a Computational fluid dynamics approach with Eulerian—Eulerian multiphase model was utilized to investigate the mechanism of cuttings transportation,and a new type of cuttings bed remover was ***,an evaluation method of hole cleaning effect of remover was *** that,the effects of several drilling parameters on hole cleaning including flow rate of drilling fluid,rotational speed of drillpipe,rate of penetration,wellbore size,rheological property of drilling fluid,and remover eccentricity on the performance of cuttings bed remover were *** results demonstrate that the new type of remover with streamline blade performs better than conventional *** efficiency of hole cleaning is greatly improved by increasing the rotational speed of drillpipe,flow rate of drilling fluid,remover eccentricity,and 6 rpm Fann dial reading for drilling *** higher rate of penetration and large wellbore size result in worse hole *** findings can serve as an important guide for the structure optimization design of cuttings bed remover and installation spacing of removers.

关键词： Extended-reach drlling Drilling hydraulics Cuttings transport Hole cleaning Cuttings bed remover

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Monsoon Break over the South China Sea during Summer: Statistical Features and Associated Atmospheric Anomalies

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2023年第10期40卷 1749-1765页

作者： Minghao BI Ke XU Riyu LU State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

This study identifies break events of the South China Sea(SCS)summer monsoon(SCSSM)based on 42 years of data from 1979 to 2020,and investigates their statistical characteristics and associated atmospheric anomalies.A total of 214 break events are identified by examining the convection evolution during each monsoon *** is found that most events occur between June and September and show a roughly even ***-lived events(3–7 days)are more frequent,accounting for about two thirds of total events,with the residual one third for long-lived events(8–24 days).The SCSSM break is featured by drastic variations in various atmospheric ***,the convection and precipitation change from anomalous enhancement in adjoining periods to a substantial suppression during the break,with the differences being more than 60 W m−2 for outgoing longwave radiation(OLR)and 10 mm d−1 for *** convection/precipitation suppression is accompanied by an anomalous anticyclone in the lower troposphere,corresponding to a remarkable westward retreat of the monsoon trough from the Philippine Sea to the Indochina Peninsula,which reduces the transportation of water vapor into the ***,the pseudo-equivalent potential temperature()declines sharply,mainly attributable to the local specific humidity reduction caused by downward dry ***,it is found that the suppressed convection and anomalous anticyclone responsible for the monsoon break form near the equatorial western Pacific and then propagate northwestward to the SCS.

关键词： South China Sea summer monsoon monsoon break atmospheric circulation convection

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Different Impacts of Intraseasonal Oscillations on Precipitation in Southeast China between Early and Late Summers

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1885-1896页

作者： Junqi LIU Riyu LU State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

This study investigates the influences of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation(BSISO), which originates from the equatorial Indian Ocean and prevails over the Indo-Pacific region, on precipitation over Southeast China, including South China and Yangtze River Valley. The results indicate that the BSISO-related precipitation anomalies are remarkably different between early summer(May–June) and late summer(July–August). The BSISO-related precipitation anomalies tend to appear more northward in late summer in comparison with early summer. Accordingly, the BSISO is significantly related to precipitation anomalies over South China during many phases in early summer but related to very weak anomalies during all the phases in late summer. Such northward shifts of precipitation anomalies from early summer to late summer are clearest during phases 4 and 7, when the lower-tropospheric anticyclonic and cyclonic circulation anomalies dominate over the subtropical western North Pacific, respectively. Finally, we explain the differences between early and late summers through the seasonal northward migration of climatological equivalent potential temperature gradient, which is located in the South China during early summer but migrates northward to the YRV during late summer.

关键词： intraseasonal oscillation precipitation Southeast China

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CAS FGOALS-f3-H Dataset for the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)Tier 2

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2022年第11期39卷 1873-1884页

作者： Bo AN Yongqiang YU Qing BAO Bian HE Jinxiao LI Yihua LUAN Kangjun CHEN Weipeng ZHENG State Key laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and geophysical fluid dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100049China

Following the High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project(HighResMIP)Tier 2 protocol under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6),three numerical experiments are conducted with the Chinese Academy of Sciences Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Model,version f3-H(CAS FGOALS-f3-H),and a 101-year(1950–2050)global high-resolution simulation dataset is presented in this *** basic configuration of the FGOALSf3-H model and numerical experiments design are briefly described,and then the historical simulation is *** by observed radiative agents from 1950 to 2014,the coupled model essentially reproduces the observed long-term trends of temperature,precipitation,and sea ice extent,as well as the large-scale pattern of temperature and *** an approximate 0.25°horizontal resolution in the atmosphere and 0.1°in the ocean,the coupled models also simulate energetic western boundary currents and the Antarctic Circulation Current(ACC),reasonable characteristics of extreme precipitation,and realistic frontal scale air-sea *** dataset and supporting detailed information have been published in the Earth System Grid Federation.

关键词： HighResMIP FGOALS-f3-H coupled model data description CMIP6

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