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Research status of earthquake forecasting in hydraulicfracturing induced earthquakes

earthquake Science 2021年第3期34卷 286-298页

作者： Qian Wang Xinxin Yin Changsheng Jiang Cong Jiang Yan Zhang Hongyu Zhai Yanbao Zhang Guijuan Lai Fengling Yin Institute of Geophysics China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing 100081China gansu earthquake agency Lanzhou 730000China

In the new types of industrial activities including unconventional energy extraction associated with shale gas and hot dry rock,gas reservoir operations,CO2 geological storage,undergoing research on induced earthquake forecasting has become one of the forward positions of current *** for the intense actual demand,the immature research on induced earthquake forecasting has already been applied in pre-assessment of site safety and seismic hazard and risk *** work will review systematically recent advances in earthquake forecasting induced by hydraulic fracturing during industrial production from four aspects:earthquake occurrence probability,maximum expected magnitude forecasting,seismic risk analysis for engineering and social applications and key scientific *** terms of earthquake occurrence probability,we introduce statistical forecasting models such as an improved ETAS and non-stationary ETAS and physical forecasting models such as Seismogenic Index(SI)and hydro-mechanism *** on maximum expected magnitude forecasting has experienced four stages of linear relationship with net injection volume of fluid,power exponential relationship and physical forecasting regarding fault *** seismic risk analysis,we focus on probabilistic seismic hazard assessment and quantitative geological susceptibility ***,this review is extended to key scientific problems that contain obtaining accurate fault scale and environmental stress state of reservoir,critical physical process of runaway rupture,complex mechanism of fault activation as well as physical mechanism and modeling of trailing *** work in understanding induced earthquake forecasting may contribute to unconventional energy development and production,seismic hazard mitigation,emergency management and scientific research as a reference.

关键词： induced earthquakes earthquake forecasting seismic hazard mitigation of earthquake disaster risk

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The Influence of Freeze-Thaw Cycles on Unconfined Compressive Strength of Lignin Fiber-Reinforced Loess

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Journal of Renewable Materials 2022年第4期10卷 1063-1080页

作者： Zhongnan Gao Xiumei Zhong Qian Wang Yongqi Su Jun Wang Lanzhou Institute of Seismology China Earthquake AdministrationLanzhou730000China Key Laboratory of Loess earthquake Engineering China Earthquake Administration&Gansu ProvinceLanzhou730000China gansu Bureau of Coal Geology Lanzhou730000China

In the seasonal permafrost region with loess distribution,the influence of freeze-thaw cycles on the engineering performance of reinforced loess must be paid attention *** studies have shown that the use of fiber materials can improve the engineering performance of soil and its ability to resist freeze-thaw *** the same time,as eco-environmental protection has become the focus,which has been paid more and more attention to,it has become a trend to find new environmentally friendly improved materials that can replace traditional chemical *** purpose of this paper uses new environmental-friendly improved materials to reinforce the engineering performance of loess,improve the ability of loess to resist freeze-thaw cycles,and reduce the negative impact on the ecological *** reinforce the engineering performance of loess and improve its ability to resist freeze-thaw cycles,lignin fiber is used as a reinforcing *** a series of laboratory tests,the unconfined compressive strength(UCS)of lignin fiber-reinforced loess under different freeze-thaw cycles was *** effects of lignin fiber content and freeze-thaw cycles on the strength and deformation modulus of loess were *** with the microstructure features,the change mechanism of lignin fiber-reinforced loess strength under freeze-thaw cycles was *** results show that lignin fiber can improve the UCS of loess under freeze-thaw cycles,but the strengthening effect no longer increases with the increase of fiber *** the fiber content is less than 1%,the UCS growth rate of loess is the fastest under freeze-thaw *** the UCS of loess with 1%fiber content is the most stable under freeze-thaw *** freeze-thaw cycles increase the deformation modulus of loess with 1%fiber content,and its ability to resist deformation is obviously better than loess with 1.5%,2%and 3%fiber *** fiber content over 1%will weaken the strengthening effect of

关键词： Fiber-reinforced loess freeze-thaw cycles unconfined compressive strength deformation modulus

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Emergency Response to the MS7.0 Jiuzhaigou,Sichuan earthquake,and Characteristics of Seismic Disasters in the Stricken Area in gansu Province

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earthquake Research in China 2018年第2期32卷 189-199页

作者： Shi Yucheng Jing Tianxiao Gao Xiaoming gansu earthquake agency Lanzhou 730000China Lanzhou Institute of Seismology China Earthquake AdministrationLanzhou 730000China

This paper introduces the response process of the gansu earthquake agency during the Jiuzhaigou M_S7.0 earthquake in Sichuan Province,including earthquake emergency disposal procedures,information reports,disaster investigation and intensity assessment,seismic monitoring and trend determination,and emergency dissemination. This paper reveals the characteristics of earthquake damage in the quake-hit areas of gansu Province,draws some corresponding conclusions and summarizes the countermeasures for recovery and reconstruction in the quake-hit areas of gansu Province.

关键词： Jiuzhaigou M S7.0 earthquake Sichuan Province earthquake response earthquake disaster characteristics Recovery and reconstruction

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Analysis of Anomalous Characteristics of Regional Crustal Deformation before the September 16^th,2019 Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake,gansu,China

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earthquake Research in China 2020年第2期34卷 210-218页

作者： MA Haiping WANG Qian ZHANG Bo WU Shanyi WANG Pengtao DOU Xiying LI Minjuan gansu earthquake agency Lanzhou 730000China Lanzhou Geophysical Field Science State Observation Station Lanzhou 730000China

To study the crustal movement in the vicinity of the epicenter before the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake in 2019, the characteristics of crustal deformation before the earthquake are discussed through the GPS velocity field analysis based on the CMONOC data observed from GPS. The baseline time series between two continuous GPS stations and the strain time series of an area among several stations are analyzed in the epicenter area. The resulting time series of baseline azimuth around the epicenter reflects that the energy of the fault in the northern margin of Qilian Mountain is accumulated continuously before 2017. Besides,the movement trend of azimuth slows down after 2017,indicating the stress accumulation on both sides of the seismogenic fault zone has reached a certain degree. The first shear strain and EWdirection linear strain in the epicentral area of the Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake remain steady after 2017,and the surface strain rate decreases gradually after 2016. It is illustrated that there is an obvious deformation loss at the epicentral region three years before the earthquake,indicating that a certain degree of strain energy is accumulated in this area before the earthquake.

关键词： Zhangye MS5.0 earthquake GPS reference station Velocity field Baseline azimuth time-series Strain time series

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Evaluation and Analysis of the Effect of Lignin Amelioration on Loess Collapsibility

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Journal of Renewable Materials 2022年第12期10卷 3405-3424页

作者： Xiumei Zhong Yuxin Liang Qian Wang Jinlian Ma Shouyun Liang Yan Wang Xiaowei Xu Key Laboratory of Loess earthquake Engineering China Earthquake Administration&Gansu Provincelanzhou730000China Department of Civil Engineering and Mechanics Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou730000China

The road subgrade and road surface in collapsible loess area are prone to many engineering diseases such as uneven subgrade settlement,insufficient bearing capacity of soaked foundation,collapse and instability of sub-grade side slope due to the special properties of *** an environment-friendly,low-cost soil modifier with good adhesion and chelation properties,lignin has been considered to be used in highway subgrade *** order to explore the effect of lignin on loess,the compressive and collapsible properties of modified loess with different lignin contents were analyzed based on consolidation compression *** improvement mechanism of lignin on loess collapsibility was studied by means of infiltration test and SEM *** results show that lignin fibers can promote the agglomeration of loose particles and form a network structure in the soil particle pores,enhance the cementation strength between particles and soil skeleton,and reduce the permeability of *** the increase of lignin fiber content,the improvement degree of loess collaps ility shows a trend of first increasing and then *** the lignin fiber content is 2%,the effect is the best,and the improved loess ollapsi-bility is eliminated.

关键词： Collapsible loess lignin distribution characteristics of pore particles SEM permeability characteristics

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Assessment of strong earthquake risk in the Chinese mainland from 2021 to 2030

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earthquake Research Advances 2023年第1期3卷 81-91页

作者： Zhigang Shao Yanqiang Wu Lingyun Ji Faqi Diao Fuqiang Shi Yujiang Li Feng Long Hui Zhang Wuxing Wang Wenxin Wei Peng Wang Xiaoxia Liu Qi Liu Zhengyang Pan Xiaofei Yin Yue Liu Wei Feng Zhenyu Zou Jia Cheng Renqi Lu Yueren Xu Xi Li Institute of earthquake Forecasting China Earthquake AdministrationKey Laboratory of Earthquake ForecastingBeijing100036China The First Monitoring and Application Center China Earthquake AdministrationTianjin300180China The Second Monitoring and Application Center China Earthquake AdministrationXi'an710054China China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) Wuhan430074China Shaanxi earthquake agency Xi'an710068China National Institute of Natural Hazards Beijing100085China Sichuan earthquake Administration Chengdu610044China gansu earthquake agency Lanzhou730000China Institute of Geology China Earthquake AdministrationBeijing100029China Yunnan University Kunming650091China

The long-term earthquake prediction from 2021 to 2030 is carried out by researching the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese *** on the strong earthquake recurrence model,the cumulative probability of each target fault in the next 10 years is given by the recurrence period and elapsed time of each fault,which are adopted from relevant studies such as seismological geology,geodesy,and historical earthquake *** on the long-term predictions of large earthquakes throughout the world,this paper proposes a comprehensive judgment scheme based on the fault segments with the seismic gap,motion strongly locked,sparse small-moderate earthquakes,and apparent Coulomb stress *** paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the relative risk for strong earthquakes that may occur in the coming 10 years on the major faults in the active tectonic block boundary zones in the Chinese *** present loading rate of each fault is first constrained by geodetic observations;the cumulative displacement of each fault is then estimated by the elapsed time since the most recent strong earthquake.

关键词： Long-term earthquake prediction Chinese mainland Active tectonic block

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Focal mechanism and seismogenic structure of the Shiqu MS4.4 earthquake

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earthquake Research Advances 2021年第4期1卷 28-37页

作者： Yanming Yang Shubo Wang Riya Su earthquake agency of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region Hohhot010010China

The focal mechanism solution of the Shiqu MS 4.4 earthquake occurred on May 16th,2017 in Sichuan Province is studied by the gCAP method using the waveform data from the regional seismic networks in Sichuan,Qinghai,Tibet and gansu *** strike/dip/dipping angle of the first nodal plane are 214/80/167and those of the second nodal plane are 306/77/10,the optimal centroid depth is 7.30.6 km and the moment magnitude is MW ***,the study investigates the robustness of the results against the error of crustal velocity structure,location,data quality and difference of seismic parameters,subsequently obtaining a stable resolved focal *** to the geological structure in the seismogenic area,spatial distribution of aftershock sequenceof the regional tectonic stress field,and the focal mechanism of the main shock,we suggest that the Shiqu earthquake is induced by a left-lateral strike-slip mechanism and the second nodal plane is inferred to be the seismogenic fault,consistent with the geometry of the Changshagongma fault which is the secondary fault of the northwest part of the Xianshuihe fault zone.

关键词： Shiqu Focal mechanism Seismogenic structure Qinghai-Tibetan plateau Xianshuihe fault zone

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Simulation of Silty Clay Compressibility Parameters Based on Improved BP Neural Network Using Bayesian Regularization

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earthquake Research in China 2020年第3期34卷 378-393页

作者： CAI Run PENG Tao WANG Qian HE Fanmin ZHAO Duoying Chengdu Surveying Geotechnical Research Institute Co Ltd.of MCCChengdu 610023China Key Laboratory of Loess earthquake Engineering Gansu Earthquake AgencyLanzhou 730000China Lanzhou Institute of Seismology China Earthquake AdministrationLanzhou 730000China

Soil compressibility parameters are important indicators in the geotechnical field and are affected by various factors such as natural conditions and human *** the sample size is too large,conventional methods require massive human and financial *** order to reasonably simulate the compressibility parameters of the sample,this paper firstly adopts the correlation analysis to select seven influencing *** of the factors has a high correlation with compressibility ***,the proportion of the weights of the seven factors in the Bayesian neural network is analyzed based on Garson ***,an output model of the compressibility parameters of BR-BP silty clay is established based on Bayesian regularized BP neural ***,the model is used to simulate the measured compressibility *** output results are compared with the measured values and the output results of the traditional LM-BP neural *** results show that the model is more stable and has stronger nonlinear fitting *** output of the model is basically consistent with the actual *** with the traditional LMBP neural network model,its data sensitivity is enhanced,and the accuracy of the output result is significantly improved,the average value of the relative error of the compression coefficient is reduced from 15.54%to 6.15%,and the average value of the relative error of the compression modulus is reduced from 6.07%to 4.62%.The results provide a new technical method for obtaining the compressibility parameters of silty clay in this area,showing good theoretical significance and practical value.

关键词： Silty clay Compressibility Correlation analysis Bayesian regularization Neural networks

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Research Progress on the Mechanism of Single-Chinese Medicinal Herbs in Treating Diabetes Mellitus

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Chinese Journal of Integrative Medicine 2011年第2期17卷 235-240页

作者：杨丽霞刘铜华黄宗涛李娟娥吴丽丽 Institute of Traditional Chinese Medicine Gansu Province Academy of Chinese Medicine agency of Science and Technology Beijing University of Chinese Medicine gansu Province Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine

Treating diabetes mellitus （DM） with Chinese medicine （CM） has had a few thousands years of history. Past Chinese medical texts had already recorded numerous medicinal herbs as well as recipes for treating DM and accumulated much clinical experience. In the following article, the prevention of DM using CM in the past 5 years is retrospectively studied, and mainly focuses on the usage of simple Chinese herbal extracts or monomers in terms of cellular as well as molecular biology.

关键词： single-Chinese medicinal herbs diabetes mellitus progress

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Application on Anomaly Detection of Geoelectric Field Based on Deep Learning

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earthquake Research in China 2020年第3期34卷 358-377页

作者： WEI Lei AN Zhanghui FAN Yingying CHEN Quan YUAN Lihua HOU Zeyu Lanzhou Institute of Seismology China Earthquake AdministrationLanzhou 730000China Lanzhou Geophysics National Observation and Research Station Lanzhou 730000China gansu earthquake agency Lanzhou 730000China School of Science Lanzhou University of TechnologyLanzhou 730050China

The deep learning method has made nurnerials achievements regarding anomaly detection in the field of time *** introduce the speech production model in the field of artificial intelligence,changing the convolution layer of the general convolution neural network to the residual element structure by adding identity mapping,and expanding the receptive domain of the model by using the dilated causal *** on the dilated causal convolution network and the method of log probability density function,the anomalous events are detected according to the anomaly *** validity of the method is verified by the simulation data,which is applied to the actual observed data on the observation staion of Pingliang geoeletric field in gansu *** results show that one month before the Wenchuan M_S8.0,Lushan M_S7.0 and Minxian-Zhangxian M_S6.6 earthquakes,the daily cumulative error of log probability density of the predicted results in Pingliang Station suddenly decreases,which is consistent with the actual earthquake anomalies in a certain time *** analyzing the combined factors including the spatial electromagnetic environment and the variation of micro fissures before the earthquake,we explain the possible causes of the anomalies in the geoelectric field of before the *** successful application of deep learning in observed data of the geoelectric field may behefit for improving the ultilization rate both the data and the efficiency of ***,it may provide technical support for more seismic research.

关键词： Deep learning Time series Dilated causal convolution Geoelectric field Abnormal detection

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