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未来气候变化对淮河流域径流的可能影响

应用气象学报 2008年第6期19卷 741-748页

作者：高歌陈德亮徐影国家气候中心北京100081 regional Climate Group Earth Sciences Center Gothenburg University Gothenburg Sweden

采用新安江月分布式水文模型,结合1961—2000年历史月气候资料和4个CGCMs的3个SRES排放情景下(B1,A2,A1B)未来降水和气温情景模拟结果,对过去淮河流域的径流进行模拟检验并对未来2011—2040年的径流影响进行评估,为水资源管理和规划提... 详细信息

采用新安江月分布式水文模型,结合1961—2000年历史月气候资料和4个CGCMs的3个SRES排放情景下(B1,A2,A1B)未来降水和气温情景模拟结果,对过去淮河流域的径流进行模拟检验并对未来2011—2040年的径流影响进行评估,为水资源管理和规划提供依据。结果表明:水文模型能较好地反映年、月流量以及多年平均值和季节的变化;年流量模拟一般好于月流量,淮河干流主要控制水文站如王家坝、鲁台子、蚌埠的年流量模型效率系数均在80以上;多年平均值模拟效果好,平均绝对相对误差为10。多数CGCMs不同排放情景下气候模拟结果表明:未来2011—2040年,淮河流域气候将趋于暖湿,但年径流量将可能以减少趋势为主。这对淮河地区水资源的可持续发展以及东线调水工程水资源统一调配和管理提出了较大的挑战。淮河流域大部分区域2011—2040年月径流量减少将主要发生在1月和7—12月,变化趋势较为确定;4—6月,径流量将以增加趋势为主,不确定性较大;2—3月,径流具有增加趋势的地区多分布在淮河以北地区,具有减少趋势的地区则多分布在淮河干流及以南地区和洪泽湖、平原区,这些地区增加或减少趋势的不确定性较大。

关键词：气候变化径流水文模型淮河流域

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Assessing the hydrological and social effects of Three Gorges Reservoir using a modified SWAT model

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Journal of Earth Science 2024年

作者： Xin Dai Lunche Wang Qian Cao Zigeng Niu Zengliang Luo Yuhua Luo Hubei Key Laboratory of regional Ecology and Environmental Change， School of Geography and Information Engineering， China University of Geosciences State Key Laboratory of Biogeology and Environmental Geology， School of Geography and Information Engineering， China University of Geosciences Hubei Luojia Laboratory

As a crucial human activity， dam construction can profoundly impact the surface hydrology patterns. The Three Gorges Reservoir （TGR）， as one of the largest hydraulic engineering projects in the world， has gained continuous attention for its eco-hydrological effects. However， further investigation is necessary to understand the runoff and social impacts of the TGR on the upper Yangtze River. This study first employed a modified SWAT model to simulate runoff， compared scenarios with and without the TGR， and finally evaluated water supply and demand in the upper Yangtze River. The results showed a significant increasing trend in the surface water area of the upper Yangtze River from 2000-2020. The modified SWAT model performs well in simulating the runoff， with nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency and Percent Bias improved by 0.04～0.30 and 2～31.90 respectively. Scenario simulation results revealed that the TGR reduced seasonal differences in runoff. During the flood season， the runoff volume at the Yichang station in the scenario with the TGR is lower than in the scenario without the TGR， peaking at 4，500 m3/s. Conversely， in the dry season， the runoff volume of the scenario with TGR is higher， with a maximum increase of 1500 m3/s. The region exhibiting the greatest runoff variations is the Yangtze River’s main stem in the Three Gorges Reservoir region. Besides， the TGR notably alleviated the water supply-demand imbalance in Chongqing during the winter and spring seasons， with a maximum increase of 0.16 in the supply-demand index. This study can contribute significantly to understanding the natural and social impacts of the TGR from the perspective of hydrological and scenario simulation.

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A Study of Prevalence of Diabetes and Prediabetes in Patients of Non-Alcoholic Fatty Liver Disease and the Impact of Diabetes on Liver Histology in Coastal Eastern India

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Journal of Diabetes Mellitus 2014年第4期4卷 290-296页

作者： Shivaram Prasad Singh Ayaskanta Singh Girish Kumar Pati Bijay Misra Debasis Misra Sanjib Kumar Kar Manas Kumar Panigrahi Chudamani Meher Omprakash Agrawal Niranjan Rout Kaumudi Pattnaik Pallavi Bhuyan Amarendra Mohapatra Department of Gastroenterology S. C. B. Medical College Cuttack India Department of Radiology Beam Diagnostics Centre Cuttack India Department of Oncopathology A. H. Regional Cancer Center Cuttack India Department of Pathology S. C. B. Medical College Cuttack India regional Medical Research Centre Bhubaneswar India

Background and Objectives: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is more common in diabetic patients. There are limited studies on clinical, biochemical and histological features of NAFLD patients who are diabetic. The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence of diabetes and prediabetes in a cohort of NAFLD patients and to compare anthropometry, biochemical and metabolic parameters and hepatic histology of diabetic NAFLD patients with non-diabetic NAFLD patients. Methods: 515 consecutive NAFLD patients diagnosed by abdominal ultrasound and 100 healthy controls were subjected to detailed anthropometric measurements and biochemical assays including blood sugars, LFT, lipid profile and HOMA. Diabetes and prediabetes were defined according to WHO criteria. Patients were categorized and compared according to the presence or absence of diabetes. Liver biopsy was performed in 240 NAFLD patients and the liver histology was also compared between the two groups. Statistical analysis was performed on SPSS 16. Results: 124 out of the 515 (24.08%) NAFLD patients were diabetics, 118 out of 515 (22.9%) were pre-diabetics, while only 3 out of 100 controls had impaired glucose tolerance. Diabetic patients were older. NAFLD patients with diabetes had significantly higher waist circumference [98.02 ± 12.01 vs 93.89 ± 8.8, p = 0.000] as compared to the NAFLD patients without diabetes. Fasting blood sugar [124 ± 46.3 vs 90.8 ± 10.2, p = 0.000], triglyceride level [218.4 ± 17.6 vs 192 ± 9, p = 0.03] and HOMA-IR [2.6 ± 0.36 vs 1.84 ± 0.2, p nash in 31.4% and definite nash in 34.2%. Fatty change alone was noted in 16.5% cases, borderline nash in 34.1%, while 49% had definite nash on liver biopsy of NAFLD patients without diabetes. Fibrosis was noted

关键词： Fatty Liver Diabetes Prediabetes Liver Histology Insulin Resistance Steatohepatitis

Evaluating the applicability of the water erosion prediction project(WEPP)model to runoff and soil loss of sandstone reliefs in the Loess Plateau,China

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International Soil and Water Conservation Research 2023年第2期11卷 240-250页

作者： Ruipeng Zhu Yang Yu Jiongchang Zhao Dianjun Liu Siyu Cai Juanlong Feng Jesús Rodrigo-Comino School of Soil and Water Conservation Beijing Forestry UniversityBeijing100083China jixian National Forest Ecosystem Observation and Research Station CNERNSchool of Soil and Water ConservationBejing Forestry UniversityBejing100083China Inner Mongolia Hydraulic Research Institute Hohhot010051China Department of Water Resources China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBejing100038China Departamento de Analisis Geografico regional y Geografia Fisica Facultad de Filosofiay LetrasCampus Universitario de CartujaUniversity of Granada

Soil erosion is one of the most serious environmental issues,especially in vulnerable areas such as the Pisha sandstone regions located in the Loess Plateau(China).In these types of reliefs,long-term studies monitoring runoff and soil loss are scarce,and even more considering the efficiency of different soil management techniques applied to reduce land *** this study,seven years(2014-2020)of in-situ measurements of surface runoff and soil loss for different land uses(forestland,shrubland,grassland,farmland,and bare land)in a Pisha Sandstone environment at the Loess Plateau were *** applied the Water Erosion Prediction Project(WEPP)model combining the large database with the precipitation *** results showed that runoff volume coming from observed and simulated data exhibited significant differences among them depending on the different vegetation *** and soil loss were different among diverse land use types as follows:farmland>grassland>shrubland>*** conducting a calibration,we found satisfactorily simulated surface runoff and sediment yield based on precipitation regimes and land uses at sandstone *** performance of surface runoff was better than sediment *** range of standard error of the model simulation for event and annual values of runoff were 4.71 mm and 12.19 mm,*** standard error for event and annual values of soil loss were 4.19 t/hm^(2)and 21.86 t/hm^(2).In the calibration group,R2 of runoff and soil loss were 0.92 and 0.86 respectively,while nash-Sutcliffe coefficient(E)reached 0.90 and 0.85,*** the validation group,the R2 for both runoff and soil loss were 0.82 and 0.56,***-Sutcliffe coefficient(E)were 0.77 and 0.54 for the runoff and sediment *** concluded that using a detailed monitoring dataset,the WEPP model could accu-rately simulate and predict water erosion in the hillslopes of Pisha sandstone area.

关键词： Land use Precipitation regimes Hydrological modeling Runoff Soil loss

Applicability evaluation of the SWIM at river basins of the black soil region in Northeast China： A case study of the upper and middle Wuyuer River basin

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Journal of Geographical Sciences 2017年第7期27卷 817-834页

作者： YANG Zhiyuan GAO Chao ZANG Shuying YANG Xiuchun Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Monitoring of Geographic Environment Harbin Normal University Harbin 150025 China College of Territorial Resources and Tourism Anhui Normal University Wuhu 241000 Anhui China Institute of Agricultural Resources and regional Planning Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences Beijing 100081 China

In this paper, we selected the middle and upper reaches of the Wuyuer River basin in the black soil region of Northeast China as the study area. We adopted the soil and water integrated model （SWIM） and evaluated the parameter sensitivity using partial correlation coefficient. We calibrated and validated our simulation results based on the daily runoff data from Yi＇an hydrological station at the outlet of the river basin and the evaporation data re- corded by various weather stations from 1961 to 1997. Following evaluation of the modeling data against the observed data, we present the applicability of SWIM in the river basin of the black soil region, and discuss the resulting errors and their probable causes. Results show that in the periods of calibration and validation, the nash-Sutcliffe efficiency （NSE） coeffi- cients of the monthly and daily runoffs were not less than 0.71 and 0.55, and the relative er- rors were less than 6.0%. Compared to daily runoffs, the simulation result of monthly runoffs was better. Additionally, the NSE coefficients of the potential monthly evaporation were not less than 0.81. Together, the results suggest that the calibrated SWIM can be utilized in various simulation analyses of runoffs on a monthly scale in the black soil region of Northeast China. On the contrary, the model had some limitations in simulating runoffs from snowmelt and frozen soil. Meanwhile, the stimulation data deviated from the measured data largely when applied to the years with spring and summer floods. The simulated annual runoffs were considerably higher than the measured data in the years with abrupt increases in annual precipitation. However, the model is capable of reproducing the changes in runoffs during flood seasons. In summary, this model can provide fundamental hydrological information for comprehensive management of the Wuyuer River basin water environment, and its applica- tion can be potentially extended to other river basins in the black soil regio

关键词： SWIM Wuyuer River basin sensitivity analysis runoff potential evapotranspiration applicability evaluation

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Dilemma of total allowable catch(TACs)allocated as shareable quotas:Applying a bio-economic game-theoretical approach to euro-mauritanian fisheries agreements

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Aquaculture and Fisheries 2024年第4期9卷 674-681页

作者： Elimane Abou Kane Abou Cire Ball Patrice Brehmer IMROP Laboratory of Social and Economic Studies-Mauritanian Institute of Oceanographic Research and FisheriesNouadhibouBP 22Mauritania UREMCD MacroeconomicsGrowth and Development Research UnitFaculty of Legal and Economic SciencesUniversity of Nouakchott Al AasriyaNouakchottBP 880Mauritania IRD Univ BrestCNRSIfremerLemarISRACRODTDakar1386Senegal CSRP SRFCSub Regional Fisheries CommissionDakar25485Senegal

The recent fisheries management approach by Mauritania recommends that Total Allowable Catch(TAC)quotas,identified as essential for maintaining fish stocks,be shared(allocated)among fishing fleets operating in Mauritanian ***,the efficiency of such management regulations is *** issue can be identified as the typical dilemma between distant-fishing countries and coastal *** developed a theoretical model to determine how to allocate TAC quotas between the fishing fleets of Mauritania(RIM)and the European Union(EU).We discuss the various procedures and conditions for optimizing the allocation of fishing quotas(by country)in context of the nash *** found that both equilibria are characterized by strategic interactions of the exploitation that influence both the supply of TAC quotas available on the market and the cost of externalities due to RIM’s dependence on financial compensation by the EU and available TAC quotas.

关键词： Fish war Quotas nash equilibrium Game theory TAC Fisheries management

Preserved liver regeneration capacity after partial hepatectomy in rats with non-alcoholic steatohepatitis

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World Journal of Hepatology 2018年第1期10卷 8-21页

作者： David Haldrup Sara Heeboll Karen Louise Thomsen Kasper Jarlhelt Andersen Michelle Meier Frank Viborg Mortensen Jens Randel Nyengaard Stephen Hamilton-Dutoit Henning Gronbaek Department of Hepatology and Gastroenterology Aarhus University HospitalAarhus C DK-8000Denmark Department of Internal Medicine Randers Regional HospitalRanders NO DK-8930Denmark Department of Surgical Gastroenterology Aarhus University HospitalAarhus C DK-8000Denmark Stereology and Electron Microscopy Laboratory Centre for Stochastic Geometry and Advanced BioimagingAarhus University HospitalAarhus C DK-8000Denmark Institute of Pathology Aarhus University HospitalAarhus C DK-8000Denmark

AIM To evaluate the liver regeneration capacity(LRC) after partial hepatectomy(PH) in experimental non-alcoholic steatohepatitis(nash).METHODS Fifty-four female rats were fed a high-fat, high-cholesterol diet(HFCD, 65% fat, 1% cholesterol) or standard diet(STD) for 16 wk. A 70% PH was performed and the animals were euthanised before PH or 2 or 5 d postPH. LRC was evaluated using: The total number of Ki-67 positive hepatocytes in the caudate lobe, N(Ki-67, lobe) evaluated in a stereology-based design, the regenerated protein ratio(RPR), prothrombin-proconvertin ratio(PP), and m RNA expression of genes related to *** The HFCD nash model showed significant steatosis with ballooning and inflammation, while no fibrosis was present. Mortality was similar in HFCD and STD animals following PH. HFCD groups were compared to respective STD groups and HFCD animals had a significantly elevated alanine transaminase at baseline(P nash rats had a preserved LRC after hepatectomy when compared to STD rats. The methods and models of nash are essential in understanding and evaluating LRC.

关键词： Rat Non-alcoholic fatty liver Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis Liver regeneration Hepatectomy Ki-67 Gene expression

Butterflies Extracts Show Antibacterial Activity

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Advances in Microbiology 2017年第6期7卷 467-479页

作者： Reuven Rasooly Miriam Rothschild Yael Gov Paul Wolferstan Robert nash Paula Do Naomi Balaban Foodborne Toxin Detection & Prevention Research Unit United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service Western Regional Research Center Albany CA USA Ashton Wold Peterborough UK Department of Human Microbiology Sackler School of Medicine Tel Aviv University Tel Aviv Israel Aberystwyth University-IBERS Aberystwyth UK

Extracts of several British butterfly species were tested and shown to possess powerful bactericidal activity against gram-positive bacteria (tested on Staphylococcus aureus and Bacillus anthracis). The active compounds in the grass-feeding species were identified as hydroxylated pyrrolizidine alkaloids (PAs) related to loline with nitrogen at C-1. Lolines are known insecticidal and insect-deterrent compounds that are produced in grasses infected by endophytic fungal symbionts. Lolines also increase resistance of endophyte-infected grasses to insect herbivores. The butterfly-isolated pyrrolizidine alkaloids appear to be novel and non-toxic to human cells such as HaCat human skin keratinocytes and Hep-2 human epithelial cells. The discovery of novel agents from butterflies could lead to the development of new antimicrobials.

关键词： Pyrrolizidine Alkaloids British Butterflies Staphylococcus aureus Antimicrobial

Promising diagnostic biomarkers of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis: from clinical proteomics to microbiome

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World Journal of Hepatology 2021年第11期13卷 1494-1511页

作者： Carolina Castillo-Castro Alexandro JoséMartagón-Rosado Rocio Ortiz-Lopez Luis Felipe Garrido-Treviño Melissa Villegas-Albo Francisco Javier Bosques-Padilla Tecnológico de Monterrey Escuela de Medicina y Ciencias de la SaludMonterrey 64710Mexico Unidad de Investigación de Enfermedades Metabólicas Instituto Nacional de Ciencias Médicas y NutriciónCiudad de México 14080Mexico Centro regional para el Estudio de las Enfermedades Digestivas Servicio de GastroenterologíaFacultad de Medicina y Hospital Universitario Dr.JoséEleuterio GonzálezUniversidad Autónoma de Nuevo LeónMonterrey 64460Mexico

Fatty liver has been present in the lives of patients and physicians for almost two *** knowledge has been generated regarding its etiology and consequences,although a long path seeking novel and innovative diagnostic biomarkers for nonalcoholic fatty liver disease(NAFLD)and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis(nash)is still *** the one hand,proteomics and lipidomics have emerged as potential noninvasive resources for NAFLD *** contrast,metabolomics has been able to distinguish between NAFLD and nash,even detecting degrees of *** the other hand,genetic and epigenetic markers have been useful in monitoring disease progression,eventually functioning as target *** markers involved in immune dysregulation,oxidative stress,and inflammation are involved in the instauration and evolution of the ***,the fascinating gut microbiome is significantly involved in NAFLD and *** review presents state-of-the-art biomarkers related to NAFLD and nash and new promises that could eventually be positioned as diagnostic resources for this *** is evident,despite great advances in studying these biomarkers,there is still a long path before they translate into clinical benefits.

关键词： Fatty liver Biomarkers Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease Nonalcoholic steatohepatitis