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Non-crossing Quantile Regression Neural Network as a Calibration Tool for Ensemble Weather Forecasts

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1417-1437页

作者： Mengmeng SONG Dazhi YANG Sebastian LERCH Xiang'ao XIA Gokhan Mert YAGLI Jamie M.BRIGHT Yanbo SHEN Bai LIU Xingli LIU Martin Janos MAYER School of Electrical Engineering and Automation Harbin Institute of TechnologyHarbin150001China Heidelberg Institute for Theoretical Studies Schloss-Wolfsbrunnenweg 3569118HeidelbergGermany Chair of Statistical Methods and Econometrics Karlsruhe Institute of Technology(KIT)Bluecherstr.1776185KarlsruheGermany Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100029China Solar Energy Research Institute of Singapore(SERIS) National University of Singapore(NUS)Singapore117574Singapore UK Power Networks LondonSE61NPUK China Meteorological Administration Beijing100081China Heilongjiang Meteorological Bureau Harbin150001China Department of Energy Engineering Faculty of Mechanical EngineeringBudapest University of Technology and EconomicsMűegyetem rkp.3H-1111BudapestHungary

Despite the maturity of ensemble numerical weather prediction(NWP),the resulting forecasts are still,more often than not,*** such,forecast calibration tools have become *** those tools,quantile regression(QR)is highly competitive in terms of both flexibility and predictive ***,a long-standing problem of QR is quantile crossing,which greatly limits the interpretability of QR-calibrated *** this point,this study proposes a non-crossing quantile regression neural network(NCQRNN),for calibrating ensemble NWP forecasts into a set of reliable quantile forecasts without *** overarching design principle of NCQRNN is to add on top of the conventional QRNN structure another hidden layer,which imposes a non-decreasing mapping between the combined output from nodes of the last hidden layer to the nodes of the output layer,through a triangular weight matrix with positive *** empirical part of the work considers a solar irradiance case study,in which four years of ensemble irradiance forecasts at seven locations,issued by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts,are calibrated via NCQRNN,as well as via an eclectic mix of benchmarking models,ranging from the naïve climatology to the state-of-the-art deep-learning and other non-crossing *** and stringent forecast verification suggests that the forecasts post-processed via NCQRNN attain the maximum sharpness subject to calibration,amongst all ***,the proposed conception to resolve quantile crossing is remarkably simple yet general,and thus has broad applicability as it can be integrated with many shallow-and deep-learning-based neural networks.

关键词： ensemble weather forecasting forecast calibration non-crossing quantile regression neural network CORP reliability diagram post-processing

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The slippery slope framework:A comprehensive evaluation of factors affecting trust and power

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Economic and Political Studies 2023年第3期11卷 382-399页

作者： Mardhiah Mardhiah Riyana Miranti Robert Tanton Directorate General of Taxes Ministry of Finance of the Republic of IndonesiaJakartaIndonesia bCanberra School of Politics Economics and SocietyFaculty of BusinessGovernment and LawUniversity of CanberraCanberraAustralia National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling Faculty of BusinessGovernment and LawUniversity of CanberraCanberraAustralia

Many empirical studies have been conducted to test the assumptions of the slippery slope framework(SSF).However,although the SSF theory has introduced several tax compliance factors that are believed to have associations with trust in tax authorities and power of tax authorities,most studies tend to include only the two main domains of trust and power in the *** of these studies comprehensively investigates the ***,this study is dedicated to fully elaborating on these factors and their correlations with the two main domains of trust and power separately and *** results show that most factors are proven to significantly influence trust and *** penalties,norms,distributive fairness and retributive fairness significantly and positively influence trust,while audit probabilities,tax penalties,attitudes,norms and retributive fairness have significant and positive correlations with *** results also confirm the main SSF assumptions that trust leads to voluntary compliance,while voluntary compliance positively affects overall tax ***,this study fails to demonstrate the relationship of power with enforced compliance,while enforced compliance is found to negatively affect overall tax compliance.

关键词： Trust power voluntary compliance enforced compliance

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Chaotic Metaheuristics with Multi-Spiking Neural Network Based Cloud Intrusion Detection

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Computers, Materials & Continua 2023年第3期74卷 6101-6118页

作者： Mohammad Yamin Saleh Bajaba Zenah Mahmoud AlKubaisy Department of Management Information Systems Faculty of Economics and AdministrationKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddah21589Saudi Arabia Department of Business Administration Faculty of Economics and AdministrationKing Abdulaziz UniversityJeddah21589Saudi Arabia

Cloud Computing(CC)provides data storage options as well as computing services to its users through the *** the other hand,cloud users are concerned about security and privacy issues due to the increased number of *** protection has become an important issue since the users’information gets exposed to third *** networks are exposed to different types of attacks which have extensively grown in addition to the novel intrusion methods and hacking *** Detection Systems(IDSs)can be used in a network to manage suspicious *** IDSs monitor the activities of the CC environment and decide whether an activity is legitimate(normal)or malicious(intrusive)based on the established system’s confidentiality,availability and integrity of the data *** the current study,a Chaotic Metaheuristics with Optimal Multi-Spiking Neural Network-based Intrusion Detection(CMOMSNN-ID)model is proposed to secure the cloud *** presented CMOMSNNID model involves the Chaotic Artificial Bee Colony Optimization-based Feature Selection(CABC-FS)technique to reduce the curse of *** addition,the Multi-Spiking Neural Network(MSNN)classifier is also used based on the simulation of brain *** is applied to resolve pattern classification *** order to fine-tune the parameters relevant to theMSNN model,theWhale Optimization Algorithm(WOA)is employed to boost the classification *** demonstrate the superiority of the proposed CMOMSNN-ID model,a useful set of simulations was *** simulation outcomes inferred that the proposed CMOMSNN-ID model accomplished a superior performance over other models with a maximum accuracy of 99.20%.

关键词： Cloud computing security intrusion detection feature selection multi-spiking neural network

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Enhancing environmental quality in the United States by linking biomass energy consumption and load capacity factor

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Geoscience Frontiers 2023年第3期14卷 54-64页

作者： Ugur Korkut Pata Mustafa Tevfik Kartal Tomiwa Sunday Adebayo Sami Ullah faculty of economics and Administrative Sciences Department of EconomicsOsmaniye Korkut Ata University80000 MerkezOsmaniyeTurkey Borsa_Istanbul Strategic Planning Financial Reportingand Investor Relations Directorate_IstanbulTurkey Department of economics Faculty of Economics and Administrative SciencesCyprus International UniversityNicosiaMersin-10Turkey Research Center for Labor economics and Human Resources Shandong UniversityWeihai 264209PR China

This study analyzes the impact of biomass energy,financial development,and economic growth on environmental quality using the novel Fourier autoregressive distributed lag(ARDL)approach on annual data for the period 1965–2018 in the United States(USA).The study analyzes the impact of related variables on the load capacity factor(LCF)as well as on indicators of environmental degradation such as carbon dioxide emissions and ecological *** LCF is one of the most comprehensive environmental indicators to date,encompassing both biocapacity and ecological *** this regard,this study contributes to the environmental economics literature by examining,for the first time,the impact of biomass energy on the *** results of the cointegration test show that there is only a long-run relationship between the LCF and the independent *** to the Fourier ARDL results,biomass energy improves the environmental quality,while financial development has no effect on the ***,the increase in per capita income reduces the ***,since the income elasticity is larger in the long run than in the short-run,the environmental Kuznets curve is ***,the United States government should encourage the use of biomass and investment in this form of energy.

关键词： Biomass energy Environmental quality EKC Fourier ARDL Load capacity factor USA

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A SECOND ORDER UNCONDITIONALLY CONVERGENT FINITE ELEMENT METHOD FOR THE THERMAL EQUATION WITH JOULE HEATING PROBLEM

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 2022年第3期40卷 354-372页

作者： Xiaonian Long Qianqian Ding College of Mathematics and Information Science Henan University of Economics and LawZhengzhou 450045China School of Mathematics Shandong UniversityJinan 250100China

In this paper,we study the finite element approximation for nonlinear thermal *** the nonlinearity of the equation,our theoretical analysis is based on the error of temporal and spatial *** consider a fully discrete second order backward difference formula based on a finite element method to approximate the temperature and electric potential,and establish optimal L^(2) error estimates for the fully discrete finite element solution without any restriction on the time-step *** discrete solution is bounded in infinite ***,several numerical examples are presented to demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method.

关键词： Thermal equation Joule heating Finite element method Unconditional convergence Second order backward difference formula Optimal L^(2)-estimate

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Lanchester equation for cognitive domain using hesitant fuzzy linguistic terms sets

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Journal of Systems Engineering and Electronics 2022年第3期33卷 674-682页

作者： HAN Qi LI Weimin XU Qiling ZHAO Minrui HUO Runze ZHANG Tao Air Defense and Antimissile School Air Force Engineering UniversityXi’an 710051China School of Humanities Economics and LawNorthwestern Polytechnical UniversityXi’an 710051China

Intelligent wars can take place not only in the physical domain and information domain but also in the cognitive *** cognitive domain will become the key domain to win in the future intelligent war.A Lanchester equation considering cognitive domain is proposed to fit the development tendency intelligent wars in this *** party is considered to obtain the exponential enhancement advantage on combat forces in combat if it can gain an advantage in the cognitive domain over the other party according to the systemic advantage *** operational effectiveness of the cognitive domain in war is considered to consist of a series of *** fuzzy sets and linguistic term sets are powerful tools when evaluating indicators,hence the indicators are scored by experts using hesitant fuzzy linguistic terms sets here.A unique hesitant fuzzy hybrid arithmetical averaging operator is used to aggregate the evaluation.

关键词： Lanchester equation cognitive domain hesitant fuzzy set hesitant fuzzy hybrid arithmetical averaging operator

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Bringing Minds Together:High-speed Railways,Team Building,and Innovation Collaboration

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China & World Economy 2022年第6期30卷 34-58页

作者： Chao Li Qian Zhou Shi Chen School of Public Finance and Taxation Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina Research Institute of economics and Management Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina School of law Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChina

This paper studies the impact of increased travelling efficiency on“innovation collaboration”between *** exploits China's recent high-speed railway(HSR)connections in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban *** paper instrumented HSR connections using the postal routes of the Yuan Dynasty and measured innovation collaboration using detailed information on patent applicants and *** results show that HSRs led to an increase in innovation collaboration by 121.7 percent from 1998 to 2016,and their overall quality increased by *** comparisonwith universities(public sector),thepaperfound that private sector firms'patent outcomes showed a larger increase in both quantity and quality after the HSR ***,we found that the teams of researchers whose members changed after the HSR connection benefited the most in comparison with both continuing teams and newly formed *** results prove that HSRs contributed to the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban *** results remained robustusingalternativemodel specifications.

关键词： coordinated development high-speed railway innovation collaboration travellingefficiency

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Timing Prediction Error Volatility and Dynamic Asset Allocation

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2022年第1期31卷 111-130页

作者： Yun Shi Academy of Statistics and Interdisciplinary Sciences Faculty of Economics and ManagementEast China Normal UniversityShanghai 200062China

We solve a portfolio selection,problem in which,return predictability,risk predictability and transaction cost are *** the problem,both expected return,prediction error volatility,and transaction cost are *** optimal strategy suggests trading partially toward a dynamic aim portfolio,which is a weighted average of expected future tangency portfolio and is highly influenced by the common fluctuation of prediction error volatility(CPE).When CPE is high,the investor would invest less and trade less frequently to avoid risk and transaction ***,the investor trades more closely to the aim portfolio with a more persistent CPE *** also conduct an empirical analysis based on the commodities futures in Chinese *** results reveal that by timing prediction error volatility,our strategy outperforms alternative strategies.

关键词： Dynamic asset allocation prediction error volatility transaction cost return predictability volatility timing

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The Numeric Characteristics of Chinese A-Share Market Index Volatility,Model Simulation,and Forecasting

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Social Sciences in China 2022年第2期43卷 161-179页

作者： Feng Yongfu Hua Xia Gao Jinkang 郑舒心华夏 School of Finance Southwestern University of Finance and Economics China Research Center of Financial law Southwestern University of Finance and Economics the School of Finance Southwestern University of Finance and EconomicsChengdu

This study investigates the basic numeric characteristics of Chinese A-share market index volatility (i.e.,the clustering,heteroscedasticity,and jumps) from the perspective of data *** presents a theoretical-empirical model based on these three major characteristics and conducts a maximum likelihood estimation to study Chinese A-share market return data *** show that,in full-sample or special periods,this model calibrates the A-share index volatility well and simulates in-sample volatility better than the four major empirical models adopted to study *** out-of-sample forecasts,this model performs better than the other four models on the value-at-risk dates,which are the volatile *** model can also decompose and explain the volatility of the Chinese A-share *** the basis of GARCH,this study revises the volatility model proposed by Maheu and extends Engle’s research ***,this model is of theoretical *** model’s simulation and forecast functioning can contribute to regulatory expectation management and investment portfolio construction.

关键词： index volatility model calibration forecast

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Willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses: A case study of 45 villages in Henan Province, China

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Regional Sustainability 2022年第2期3卷 133-145页

作者： WANG Yuchan GAO Genghe NING Xiaoju LI Yuanzheng NIU Ning GUO Yaqi faculty of economics Southern Federal UniversityRostov344680Russia School of Resources and Environment Henan University of Economics and LawZhengzhou450046China Academic Laboratory for Urban and Rural Spatial Data Mining of Henan Province Zhengzhou450046China

The willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses has an important impact on local *** present,there are few researches on the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase *** existing researches mostly focus on the perspective of sociology and economics,and few studies are conducted from the perspective of *** on the survey data of 45 villages in Henan Province of China in 2019,this study used binary logistic method to study the influencing factors of the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase *** willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase houses is affected by many factors,such as personal,family,village,and returning *** them,age and returning period are negatively correlated with the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase *** such as years of education,years of working,and per capita income of village are positively correlated with the willingness of returning migrant workers to purchase *** migrant workers in plains and hilly areas are more willing to purchase houses than those in mountainous *** formation of the willingness to purchase houses is mainly related to economic foundation,age,marital status,and other *** migrant workers are becoming more willing to purchase houses,and the expected locations are mainly concentrated in the county *** the context of China’s high density of rural population and rapid urbanization,more returning migrant workers are expected to purchase houses in cities and towns for the sake of employment,marriage,children’s education,and access to public *** a result,there is an extensive market of potential purchasers,which affects the development of the local urban real estate industry and is of great significance for returning migrant workers to truly integrate into the ***,some returning migrant workers still choose to purchase houses in villages,mainly affect

关键词： Returning migrant workers House purchase willingness Binary logistic method Urbanization Henan Province

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