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China's Overinvestment and International Trade Conflicts

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China & World Economy 2019年第5期27卷 37-62页

作者： Gunther Schnabl Institute of economic policy Leipzig UniversityGermany

For a long time, China s impressive growth performance has been driven by investment and high productivity gains. Based on a discussion of possible overcapacities and overinvestment in China, this paper investigates the sustainability of China s investment and export-driven growth model. Since the turn of the millennium, buoyant capital inflows and low interest rates have been at the root of overinvestment and misallocation of capital, which necessitated export subsidies to clear markets. The overinvestment boom is argued to have ended around 2014. Since then, the overcapacities have weakened China's bargaining position in the US-Chinese trade conflict and have tempted Chinese authorities to postpone the restructuring of the Chinese economy by providing low-interest credit. The gradual reemergence of quasi-soft budget constraints is seen to undermine China s long-term growth potential.

关键词： credit growth overinvestment rebalancing soft budget constraints trade policy zombification

Exchange Rate Regime, Financial Market Bubbles and Long-term Growth in China： Lessons from Japan

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China & World Economy 2017年第1期25卷 32-57页

作者： Gunther Schnabl Senior fellow Leipzig University Institute for Economic Policy Leipzig.

Since 2014, capital inflows into China have turned into capital outflows, reversing the gradual appreciation path of the renminbi against the US dollar into an erratic depreciation path. The paper explains the current capital ouows by comparing China and Japan with respect to the impact of exchange rate expectations on speculative capital flows. It is argued that both in China and Japan, given benign liquidity conditions in the USA, policy-induced appreciation expectations have generated capital inflows that have contributed to overinvestment and financial market bubbles. The current reversal of capital flows is seen as a signal that the bubble in China has burst. To stabilize growth in China and to discourage speculative capital ouows a fixed exchange rate to the dollar is recommended. Given Japan＇s experience and given that China＇s foreign assets remain high, the depreciation pressure on the Chinese renminbi can be expected to abate.

关键词： China capital controls exchange rate policy Japan rebalancing secular stagnation

China's Exchange Rate and Financial Repression:The Conflicted Emergence of the RMB as an International Currency

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China & World Economy 2014年第3期22卷 1-31页

作者： Ronald McKinnon Gunther Schnabl economics Department Stanford University Institute of economic policy Leipzig University

Instability in the worm dollar standard, as most recently manifested in the US Federal Reserve＇s near-zero interest rate policy, has caused consternation in emerging markets with naturally higher interest rates. China has been provoked into speeding RMB ＂internationalization ＂; that is, opening up domestic financial markets to reduce its dependence on the US dollar for invoicing trade and making international payments. However, despite rapid percentage growth in offshore financial markets in RMB, the Chinese authorities are essentially trapped into maintaining exchange controls （reinforced by financial repression in domestic interest rates） to avoid an avalanche of foreign capital inflows that would threaten inflation and asset price bubbles by driving nominal interest rates on RMB assets down further. Because a floating （appreciating） exchange rate could attract even more hot money inflows, the People＇s Bank of China should focus on keeping the yuan/dollar rate stable so as to encourage naturally high wage increases to help balance China ＂s international competitiveness. However, further internationalization of the RMB, as with the proposed Shanghai pilot free trade zone, is best deferred until world interest rates rise to more normal levels.

关键词： China exchange rate stabilization financial repression inflation dollar standard intemationalization of RMB

Are Disasters a Risk to Regional Fiscal Balance?Evidence from Indonesia

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第6期12卷 839-853页

作者： Astrid Wiyanti Alin Halimatussadiah economic Planning and Development policy University of IndonesiaJakarta 10440Indonesia Center for Climate Finance and Multilateral policy Fiscal Policy AgencyMinistry of Finance of IndonesiaJakarta 10710Indonesia Department of economics University of Indonesia.Depok 16424.Indonesia

Indonesia is an archipelago country and is fairly vulnerable to disasters. While disasters generally affect government revenue and expenditure, their effects likely vary by country. This study examines the effect of disasters on the fiscal balance, revenue, and expenditure of local governments. We used panel data and fixed effects methods to estimate the degree to which disaster severity influences budgetary solvency at the district and provincial levels in Indonesia between 2010 and 2018. This study revealed that disasters can strain fiscal balance at the district and provincial levels due to a decrease in own-source revenue and an increase in social assistance expenditure, capital expenditure, consumption expenditure, and unexpected expenditure. The district expenditure most threatened by disasters is consumption expenditure, while the provincial expenditure most threatened is unexpected expenditure. We also found that an increase in capital expenditure can lead to financial burden due to delays of planned projects or post-disaster reconstruction. Based on these findings, it is clear that some forms of insurance or other financing schemes are necessary to mitigate the adverse impacts of disasters on regional fiscal balance.

关键词： Budgetary solvency Disaster impacts Disaster insurance Fiscal balance Indonesia Local government budgets

A Solution to Two Paradoxes of International Capital Flows

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economic and Political Studies 2014年第1期2卷 3-43页

作者： JIANDONG JU SHANG-JIN WEI the Center for International economic Research (CIER) at Tsinghua University and University of Oklahoma the Columbia Business School Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR)CIERand National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)

International capital flows from rich to poor countries can be regarded as either too small(the Lucas paradox in a one-sector model)or too large(when compared with the logic of factor price equalization in a two-sector model).To resolve the paradoxes,we introduce a non-neoclassical model which features financial contracts and firm *** our model,free trade in goods does not imply equal returns to capital across *** addition,rich patterns of gross capital flows emerge as a function of financial and property rights institutions.A poor country with an inefficient financial system may simultaneously experience an outflow of financial capital but an inflow of FDI,resulting in a small net *** comparison,a country with a low capital-to-labor ratio but a high risk of expropriation may experience an outflow of financial capital without a compensating inflow of FDI.

关键词： capital bypass circulation expropriation risk gross capital flow heterogeneous entrepreneurs financial development

How China Could Contribute to a Benign Global Rebalancing?

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China & World Economy 2008年第5期16卷 35-50页

作者： Pingfan Hong Rob Vos Keping Yao Chief of Global economic Monitoring Department of Economic and Social Affairs the United Nations Director for Development policy and Analysis the United Nations Statistician Department of Economic and Social Affairs the United Nations

Our study shows that China could contribute to an orderly global rebalancing using a package of policies to stimulate its domestic consumption. These policies include a progressive appreciation of the RMB, fiscal stimulation by increasing expenditure on education, health care, social safety nets and poverty reduction, income policies to reduce inequality and to strengthen wage income, and reforms of the financial system to improve financial efficiency and to mitigate financial constraints. By implementing such policies, China＇ s external surplus could be narrowed and its domestic imbalances improved. The excessively high savings rate could be lowered and the share of household consumption increased, even though GDP growth would moderate slightly.

关键词： consumption exchange rate global imbalances savings social spending

Cultural tightness,trust,and power in enforcing tax compliance

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economic and Political Studies 2024年第2期12卷 143-170页

作者： Aloys Prinz Institute of Public economics Munster Centre for Economic PolicyUniversity of MunsterMunsterGermany

The so-called Cultural Tightness–Looseness(CTL)concept intends to describe the socio-cultural foundation of societies by the strictness of social *** this paper,CTL is used to investigate its relevance to enforcing tax *** CTL concept is formalised by structural payoff matrices for the confrontation between citizens and *** norms and their impacts on the behaviour of the parties in a conflict are used to define several variants of tight and loose *** payoff matrices are employed to classify respective forms of *** a dynamic analysis,‘power’and‘trust’,as policy measures of behaviour control,are introduced to determine which instrument or combination of instruments emerges as the most relevant and effective option in the respective societal *** result is that‘trust’emerges in tight societies as the more important instrument of behaviour control,whereas‘power’appears as the more crucial tool in loose ***,it is concluded that power or the‘cops and robbers’approach is usually applied in loose societies to enforce tax *** contrast,‘trust’via the provision of information and support for paying taxes can be more often used in tight societies.

关键词： Cultural tightness cultural looseness social norms behaviour control trust and power tax compliance

Assessment of Local Public Finance Performance in China When Undesirable Fiscal Phenomena are Taken into Account

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China & World Economy 2012年第6期20卷 82-101页

作者： Shujian Zhang Jun Zhang Shiyi Chen Public policy Institute Georgetown University China Center for economic Studies Fudan University

Making use of the data envelopment analysis （DEA） technique and taking undesirable fiscal phenomena into account, this paper comprehensively quantifies the public fnance performance of local governments in China during the course of fiscal decentralization reform. The introduction of undesirable fiscal outcomes into this assessment makes it possible to identify meaningful and informative characteristics of local public finance performance in China. When reforms are first implemented, local pubIic financial performance improves because undesirable fiscal phenomena have not yet become too serious. The tax sharing system reform did not work well in its early stages, and negatively impacted public expenditure e3ficiency. The reform started to play a substantial role between 2001 and 2005, when local governments experienced better public finance performance. Corresponding to the deterioration of the financial sector in recent years, local public financial performance worsened after 2007. Further reform of the current fiscal and taxation system is necessary in China, to ensure a brighter future for the nation.

关键词： efficiency scores fiscal decentralization local governments public finance performance undesirable outputs

Reforming the World Trade Organization: Practitioner Perspectives from China, the EU, and the US

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China & World Economy 2021年第4期29卷 1-34页

作者： Bernard Hoekman Robert Wolfe European University Institute and the Centre for economic policy Research Italy Queen's University Canada

China,the European Union,and the United States are the world s largest *** have a big stake in a multilateral system of rules to manage the inevitable frictions among interdependent economies organized on different *** paper discusses elements of the WTO reform agenda through the lens of positions taken by these three WTO members,identifying the extent of alignment on key subjects,including transparency,dispute settlement,and plurilateral *** draw on findings of a recent research project on WTO reform and use responses to an expert survey to assess the prospects for actions that all three trade powers might *** premise is that reforming WTO is a necessary condition for the organization to be a more salient forum for the three large economies to address trade tensions,and that agreement among these three trade powers^in turn,is necessary to resolve the problems of the WTO.

关键词： China plurilateral cooperation trade agreements trade conflict WTO