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A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North china

Science china Earth Sciences 2025年第1期68卷 158-171页

作者： Shunli JIANG Tingting HAN Xin ZHOU Huijun WANG Zhicong YIN Xiaolei SONG Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Southern marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Recently, heavy precipitation(HP) events have occurred frequently in North china(NC), causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities. However, the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited. Combining year-to-year increment(DY) method and sliding correlations, we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs) in NC during 1982–2022, utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean(SST＿IO), February snow depth over North Asia(SDE＿NA), and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE＿NC). The SST＿IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern. The SDE＿NA anomalies are associated with east Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia. The MSDE＿NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies. This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs, with a correlation coefficient(CC) of 0.81(0.65) between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly). The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs＿anomaly years(PSSE) is 100%.Moreover, in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022, the PSSE for HPDs＿anomaly is as high as 100%, along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14. For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022, the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly) is 0.93(0.83), together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82) and agreement index(0.89). Specifically, the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2022, reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

关键词： Heavy precipitation at North china Year-to-year increment approach Robust seasonal prediction sea surface temperature Snow depth

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Elimination of the impact of vessels on ocean wave height inversion with X-band wave monitoring radar

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2016年第5期34卷 1114-1121页

作者：王立吴雄斌马克涛田云费跃军 School of Electronic information Faculty of Radio OceanographyWuhan University marine Forecast center of east china sea East China Sea BranchState Oceanic Administration

Directional wave spectra and integrated wave parameters can be derived from X-band radar sea surface images.A vessel on the sea surface has a significant influence on wave parameter inversions that can be seen as intensive backscatter speckles in X-band wave monitoring radar sea surface images.A novel algorithm to eliminate the interference of vessels in ocean wave height inversions from X-band wave monitoring radar is *** algorithm is based on the characteristics of the *** principal components(PCs) of a sea surface image sequence are extracted using empirical orthogonal function(EOF)*** standard deviation of the PCs is then used to identify vessel interference within the image *** mitigate the interference,a suppression method based on a frequency domain geometric model is *** algorithm framework has been applied to OSMAR-X,a wave monitoring system developed by Wuhan University,based on nautical X-band *** sea surface images captured on vessels by OSMAR-X are processed using the method proposed in this *** schemes are validated by comparisons with data from in situ wave *** root-mean-square error between the significant wave heights(SWH) retrieved from original interference radar images and those measured by the buoy is reduced by 0.25 *** determinations of surface gravity wave parameters,in particular SWH,confirm the applicability of the proposed method.

关键词： X-band wave monitoring radar vessel interference empirical orthogonal function(EOF) significant wave heights(SWH) frequency domain geometric model

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Silicon limitation on primary production and its destiny in Jiaozhou Bay, china Ⅷ: The variation of atmospheric carbon caused by both phytoplankton and human

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2010年第2期28卷 416-425页

作者：杨东方苗振清石强陈豫陈国光 marine Science College Zhejiang Ocean University North china sea Environmental Monitoring center SOA information College Shanghai Ocean University

Statistical analysis on data collected in the Jiaozhou Bay (Shandong, china) from May 1991 to February 1994 and those collected in Hawaii from March 1958 to December 2007 shows dynamic and cyclic changes in atmospheric carbon in the Northern Pacific Ocean (NPO), as well as the variation in space-time distribution of phytoplankton primary production and atmospheric carbon in the study regions. The study indicates that the human beings have imposed an important impact on the changing trends of the atmospheric carbon. Primary production in the Jiaozhou Bay presents a good example in this regard. In this paper, dynamic models of the atmospheric carbon in the NPO, the cyclic variations in the atmospheric carbon, and primary production in the Jiaozhou Bay are studied with simulation curves presented. A set of equations were established that able to calculate the rate and acceleration of increasing carbon discharged anthropologically into the atmosphere and the conversion rate of phytoplankton to atmospheric carbon. Our calculation shows that the amount of atmospheric carbon absorbed by one unit of primary production in the Jiaozhou Bay is (3.21–9.74)×10-9/(mgC·m-2d-1), and the amount of primary production consumed by a unit of atmospheric carbon is 102.66–311.52 (mgC·m-2d-1/10-6). Therefore, we consider that the variation of atmospheric carbon is a dynamic process controlled by the increase of carbon compound and its cyclic variation, and those from anthropologic discharge, and phytoplankton growth.

关键词： atmospheric carbon carbon conversion human beings phytoplankton Jiaozhou Bay Hawaii

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Surface tidal currents in the open sea area to the east of the Zhoushan Islands measured with high frequency surface wave radar

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2013年第10期32卷 5-10页

作者： SHEN Zhiben WU Xiongbin FEI Yuejun XU Xing'an CHEN Xiaofeng Radio Oceanography Laboratory School of Electronic InformationWuhan University marine Forecast center of east china sea East China Sea BranchState Oceanic Administration

Based on the quasi-harmonic analysis of 11 d vector ocean currents obtained from two high frequency sur- face wave radars located at Zhujiajian Island and Shengshan Island, the spatial distribution characteristics of surface tidal currents in the open sea area to the east of the Zhoushan Islands of Zhejiang Province, china are studied. The following conclusions are drawn from the analysis： the tidal current pattern in the open sea area to the east of Zhoushan Islands is primarily regular semidiurnal, which is significantly affected by the shallow water constituents. The directions of the major axes of tidal current ellipses of M2 lie approx- imately in the NW-SE direction. With the increasing of distance away from the coast, the directions of the tidal current ellipses gradually shift toward the E-W direction. The tidal currents are mainly reversing cur- rents. The spatial distribution of probable maximum current velocities decreases gradually from northeast to southwest which is basically in accordance with the spatial distribution of measured maximum current velocities. The residual currents near the coast are larger than those far away from the coast. The directions of the residual currents are basically north by east, and the angle to the due north increases gradually with the increasing distance away from the coast. The topography shows a certain impact on the spatial distri- bution of shallow water constituents, the rotation of tidal currents, the probable maximum currents and the residual currents.

关键词： high frequency surface wave radar quasi-harmonic analysis Zhoushan Islands of Zhejiang Province of china spatial distribution characteristics surface tidal currents

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Carbon,Nitrogen,and Sulfur Contents in marine Phytoplankton Cells and Biomass Conversion

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Journal of Ocean University of china 2023年第3期22卷 851-862页

作者： CHEN Wenqing YANG Shimin SHANG Jie WANG Jinwen College of marine Life Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China North china sea marine Forecasting center of soa Qingdao 266102China

In this study,we isolated and cultured phytoplankton along the coast of china and measured the cellular carbon,nitrogen,and sulfur contents under four *** results showed that the contents of the cellular elements varied widely among different *** found that temperature is one of the important factors affecting the carbon,nitrogen,and sulfur contents in phytoplankton cells;however,the degree of influence of temperature is different for different kinds of *** measuring the nitrogen content in cells,we found that the C:N ratio indirectly measured in the experiment fluctuated in the range of 3.50-8.97,and the average C:N ratio was *** this experiment,we accurately measured the cell elemental contents at different temperatures and transformed the cell count results into carbon,nitrogen,and sulfur contents to express the *** method ensures that the contribution of species that are small in number but with a large cell volume in biomass is ***,this method comprehensively considers the interspecific differences of species and the uneven distribution of elements in phytoplankton cells,which is of significance in the estimation of marine carbon and nitrogen *** distribution of nitrogen content in marine phytoplankton can well indicate the marine eutrophication caused by human *** change can affect the community structure and element composition of marine phytoplankton,meanwhile marine carbon and nitrogen element can regulate the climate to a certain extent.

关键词： phytoplankton temperature gradient carbon element nitrogen element sulfur element element content distribution

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An ensemble learning method to retrieve sea ice roughness from Sentinel-1 SAR images

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第5期43卷 78-90页

作者： Pengyi Chen Zhongbiao Chen Runxia Sun Yijun He School of marine Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China east sea information center of State Oceanic Administration Shanghai 200136China

sea ice surface roughness(SIR)affects the energy transfer between the atmosphere and the ocean,and it is also an important indicator for sea ice *** obtain a small-scale SIR with high spatial resolution,a novel method is proposed to retrieve SIR from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar(SAR)images,utilizing an ensemble learning ***,the two-dimensional continuous wavelet transform is applied to obtain the spatial information of sea ice,including the scale and direction of ice ***,a model is developed using the Adaboost Regression model to establish a relationship among SIR,radar backscatter and the spatial information of sea *** proposed method is validated by using the SIR retrieved from SAR images and comparing it to the measurements obtained by the Airborne Topographic Mapper(ATM)in the summer Beaufort *** determination of coefficient,mean absolute error,root-mean-square error and mean absolute percentage error of the testing data are 0.91,1.71 cm,2.82 cm,and 36.37%,respectively,which are ***,K-fold cross-validation and learning curves are analyzed,which also demonstrate the method’s applicability in retrieving SIR from SAR images.

关键词： 2-D Cauchy continuous wavelet transform(CWT) Adaboost Regression sea ice sea ice surface roughness

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Solar light,seawater temperature,and nutrients,which one is more important in affecting phytoplankton growth?

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2009年第4期27卷 825-831页

作者：苗振清杨东方 College of Environmental Science and Engineering Ocean University of China marine Science College Zhejiang Ocean University North china sea Environmental Monitoring center SOA

Based on research results on the impacts of solar light,seawater temperature,and nutrient available to phytoplankton growth and changes in phytoplankton physiology and assemblage,we discussed the order of influence of these *** clarifying the mechanisms and processes of the impacts by these factors,we have determined the rising order of the importance as solar light,seawater temperature,and nutrient silicon (Si).Therefore,for human interests in sustaining economic development,the first thing to be considered is the input of nutrient Si into the ocean,followed by seawater temperature change.

关键词： solar light seawater temperature nutrient Si phytoplankton growth and assemblage structure order of importance

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Impact of PhaseⅢProject of Maji Mountain Port on sediment siltation in adjacent sea area

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2017年第12期36卷 111-118页

作者： JIN Zuowen ZUO Changsheng WANG Zhizu College of Oceanic and Atmospheric Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China east china sea Branch of State Oceanic Administration Shanghai 200137China National marine information center Tianjin 300171China east china sea center of Standard and Metrology State Oceanic AdministrationShanghai 200137China

Based on a 3-D Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model（FVCOM）, tidal dynamics has been studied in the sea area around the Phase III Project of Maji Mountain Port（MMP）. Furthermore, taking typhoon ＂Canhong＂ as an example, a storm surge and sediment model has also been established to study the impact of the Phase III Project on current flows and siltation during extreme weather. Tidal currents before and after the project have been compared. Model results show that the changes of tidal current mainly occur in the engineering areas with a magnitude change of 0.3–0.4 m/s during maximum flood and ebb tides. The flow condition for the port has been improved as the flow direction is changed to parallel to the wharf after the completion of the project. There is little siltation in the adjacent area, which will not affect the safety of ship navigation. Besides, the sudden siltation during typhoon period is relatively weak. The back silting in two days is less than 5 cm indicating no sudden siltation occurs.

关键词： Maji Mountain Port FVCOM tidal current siltation storm

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Screen and effect analysis of immunostimulants for sea cucumber,Apostichopus japonicus

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Chinese Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2009年第1期27卷 80-84页

作者：李继业孙修勤郑风荣郝林华 College of marine Life Science Ocean University of China North china sea Environmental Monitoring center State Oceanic Administration The First Institute of Oceanography soa

Immunostimulants may improve disease resistance of aquaculture animals by promoting the nonspecific immunity response of the organisms. Five types of saccharides, including chitosan, yeast polysaccharide, burdock oligosaccharide, seaweed polysaccharide and lentinus edodes polysaccharide, were screened for potential use as immunostimulants by using spectrophotometry. The saccharides were injected into Apostichopusjaponicus, a sea cucumber, and the lysozyme and superoxide dismutase （SOD） activities of the coelomic fluid and epidermal slime were monitored in six consecutive days. The results show that the lysozyme activity of the animal＇s coelomic fluid was significantly stimulated on day 2, day 4 and day 6 after the injection of the saccharides （P〈0.05）. The effects of chitosan and yeast polysaccharide were the most notable. The lysozyme activity of the epidermal slime was significantly increased by chitosana, yeast polysaccharide, seaweed polysacchafide, and burdock oligosaccharide on day 1 and day 2 after the injection （P〈0.05）. The SOD activity of the coelomic fluid was significantly promoted by the saccharides on day 2 and day 4 post-injection （P〈0.05）, while the SOD activity of the epidermal slime increased on day 2. These findings indicate that chitosan and yeast polysaccharide are the most effective immunostimulants and potential healthy anti-disease feedstuff for A. japonicus.

关键词： Apostichopusjaponicus immunostimulant lysozyme superoxide dismutase

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Statistical model on the surface elevation of waves with breaking

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Science china Earth Sciences 2008年第5期51卷 759-768页

作者： YUAN YeLi HUA Feng ZHANG ShuWen HAN Lei marine Science and Numerical Modeling Laboratory SOAQingdao 266061China First Institute of Oceanography SOAQingdao 266061China South china sea Environmental Institute Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China

In the surface wind drift layer with constant momentum flux, two sets of the consistent surface eleva- tion expressions with breaking and occurrence conditions for breaking are deduced from the first in- tegrals of the energy and vortex variations and the kinetic and mathematic breaking criterions, then the expression of the surface elevation with wave breaking is established by using the Heaviside function. On the basis of the form of the sea surface elevation with wave breaking and the understanding of small slope sea waves, a triple composite function of real sea waves is presented including the func- tions for the breaking, weak-nonlinear and basic waves. The expression of the triple composite func- tion and the normal distribution of basic waves are the expected theoretical model for surface elevation statistics.

关键词： first integrals for energy and vortex variations in wind drift layer kinetic and mathematic wave breaking criterions triple composite function of the real sea waves normal distribution of the basic waves

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