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Study on the Method of Short-Term Synthetic Earthquake Prediction in the North China Region

Earthquake Research in China 2004年第2期18卷 188-199页

作者： PingJianjun ZhangYongxian ZhangQingrong LiuSuying ChenJianguo HuangWanfa MiXuemei earthquakeadministrationofhebeiprovince Shijiazhuang050021China CenterforAnalysisandPrediction ChinaEarthquakeAdministrationBeijing100036China

Based on the extraction and calculation of the short-term seismic precursory information magnitude from the 114 major precursory observations in the North China region, and together with consideration of factors such as geological structure, seismicity, crustal thickness, and in particular, the current geodynamics of the region, the authors studied the time-space evolution characteristics of the short-term earthquake precursory information magnitude and its relationship with earthquakes and proposed the index and method for the short-term synthetic prediction of earthquakes with M S≥5.0 in the North China region. The inspection through R-value shows that the method is effective to a certain extent for earthquake prediction.

关键词： The North China region Precursory information magnitude of short-term earthquake anomaly Information field Evolution characteristics Methods of synthetic prediction

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Study on Shear Wave Velocity Structure and Velocity Ratio Beneath Ordos Block and Its Eastern and Southern Margins

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Earthquake Research in China 2004年第3期18卷 242-252页

作者： ZhangXuemin DiaoGuiling ShuPeiyi SchoolofGeophysicsandInformationTechnology ChinaUniversityofGeosciencesBeijing100083China earthquakeadministrationofhebeiprovince Shijiazhuang050021China InstituteofGeologyandGeophysics ChineseAcademyofSciencesBeijing100029China

Using pure S wave fitting method, we studied the shear wave velocity structures under the Ordos block and its eastern and southern marginal areas. The results show that the velocity structure beneath Yulin station in the interior of Ordos block is relatively stable, where no apparent change between high and low velocity layers exists and the shear wave velocity increases steadily with the depth. There is a 12km thick layer at the depth of 25km under this station, with an S wave velocity (V S=3.90km/s) lower than that at the same depth in its eastern and southern areas (V S≥4.00km/s). The crust under the eastern margin of Ordos block is thicker than that of the Yulin station, and the velocity structures alternate between the high and low velocity layers, with more low velocity layers. It has the same characteristic as having a 10km-thick low velocity layer (V S=3.80km/s) in the lower crust but buried at a depth of about 35km. Moreover, we studied the V P/V S ratio under each station in combination with the result of P wave velocity inversion. The results show that, the average velocity ratio of the Yulin station at the interior of Ordos block is only 1.68, with a very low ratio (about 1.60) in the upper crust and a stable ratio of about 1.73 in the mid and lower crust, which indicates the media under this station is homogenous and stable, being in a state of rigidity. But at the stations in the eastern and southern margins of the Ordos block, several layers of high velocity ratio (about 1.80) have been found, in which the average velocity ratio under Kelan and Lishi stations at the eastern margin is systemically higher than that of the general elastical body waves (1.732). This reflects that the crust under the marginal areas is more active relatively, and other materials may exist in these layers. Finally, we discussed the relationship among earthquakes, velocity structures beneath stations and faults.

关键词： Ordos block S wave Velocity structure Velocity ratio

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