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Uncertainty analysis for the calculation of marine environmental design parameters in the South China Sea

Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 427-443页

作者： Guilin LIU Xinsheng ZHOU Yi KOU Fang WU Daniel ZHAO Yu XU college of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China dornsife college University of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta BarbaraCA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridgeMA 02138USA Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China

The calculation results of marine environmental design parameters obtained from different data sampling methods,model distributions,and parameter estimation methods often vary *** better analyze the uncertainties in the calculation of marine environmental design parameters,a general model uncertainty assessment method is *** proposed a new multivariate model uncertainty assessment method for the calculation of marine environmental design *** method divides the overall model uncertainty into two categories:aleatory uncertainty and epistemic *** aleatory uncertainty of the model is obtained by analyzing the influence of the number and the dispersion degree of samples on the information entropy of the *** epistemic uncertainty of the model is calculated using the information entropy of the model itself and the prediction *** advantages of this method are that it does not require many-year-observation data for the marine environmental elements,and the method can be used to analyze any specific factors that cause model *** show that by applying the method to the South China Sea,the aleatory uncertainty of the model increases with the number of samples and then stabilizes.A positive correlation was revealed between the dispersion of the samples and the aleatory uncertainty of the *** the distribution of the model and the parameter estimation results of the model have significant effects on the epistemic uncertainty of the *** the goodness-of-fit of the model is relatively close,the best model can be selected according to the criterion of the lowest overall uncertainty of the models,which can both ensure a better model fit and avoid too much uncertainty in the model calculation *** presented multivariate model uncertainty assessment method provides a criterion to measure the advantages and disadvantages of the marine environmental design parameter calculation model from the aspect of u

关键词： South China Sea marine environmental design parameters model uncertainty information entropy Monte Carlo method

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Assessment of typhoon storm surge disaster scale based on expansion model

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2023年第2期41卷 518-531页

作者： Guilin LIU Xiuxiu NONG Yi KOU Fang WU Daniel ZHAO Zongbing YU college of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China dornsife college University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles CA 90089USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara CA 93106USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridge MA 02138USA State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of TechnologyDalian 116024China

The South China Sea suffers strongly from the typhoon storm surge disasters in China,and its northern coastal areas are facing severe ***,it is necessary and urgent to establish an assessment system for rating typhoon storm surge *** constructed an effective and reliable rating assessment system for typhoon storm surge disaster based on the theories of over-threshold,distribution function family,and composite extreme *** over-threshold sample was used as the basis of data analysis,the composite extreme value expansion model was used to derive the design water increment,and then the disaster level was delineated based on the return period *** results of the extreme value model comparison show that the Weibull-Pareto distribution is more suitable than the classical extreme value distribution for fitting the over-threshold *** results of the return period projection are relatively stable based on different analysis *** the 10 typhoon storm surges as examples,they caused landfall in the Guangdong area in the past 10 *** results of the assessment ranking indicate that the risk levels based on the return period levels obtained from different distributions are generally *** classifying low-risk areas,the classification criteria of the State Oceanic Administration,China(SOA,2012)are more *** the high-risk areas,the results of the assessment ranking based on return period are more consistent with those of the SOA.

关键词： risk classification South China Sea typhoon storm surge extreme value expansion over threshold sampling

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Multilevel Modeling of PM2.5 and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Diabetes Mellitus in Adults Aged 65 and Older

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2022年第7期10卷 266-278页

作者： Longjian Liu Jessica Grimm Qing Wang Rose Ann DiMaria-Ghalili Charles N. Haas Arthur Frank Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Dornsife School of Public Health Drexel University Philadelphia PA USA School of Public Health Shandong University Jinan China Department of Graduate Nursing College of Nursing and Health Professions Drexel University Philadelphia PA USA Department of Civil Architectural and Environmental Engineering College of Engineering Drexel University Philadelphia PA USA Department of Environment and Occupational Health Dornsife School of Public Health Drexel University Philadelphia PA USA

We aimed to test a hypothesis that elevated ambient particulate matter (PM) 2.5 concentrations are significantly associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, and diabetes mellitus (DM) in adults aged 65 and older. We analyzed data (2010-2013) from U.S. 1118 counties to examine the association between PM2.5 concentrations and risk of prevalent CHD, stroke, and DM, and mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD), CHD, stroke, and DM in adults aged ≥ 65. Multilevel regression analysis technique was applied to test these associations. The results show that the annual mean of PM2.5 concentration was 8.7 μg/m3 in the total study sample. Significant differences in mean PM2.5 concentrations were observed across counties and states in the U.S. Multilevel regression analysis indicates that an average annual concentration of 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 concentration was significantly associated with an increased prevalence of CHD, stroke, and DM by 4.9‰ (95% CI: 3.1‰ - 6.7‰), 0.8‰ (0.5‰ - 1.1‰), and 3.3‰ (2.9‰ - 4.4‰), respectively. State-level correlation analyses indicate that increased PM2.5 concentrations were significantly associated with increased age-adjusted mortality from CVD (r = 0.76, p < 0.001), CHD (r = 0.0.40, p = 0.004), stroke (r = 0.60, p p = 0.02). In conclusion, Elevated PM2.5 concentrations were significantly associated with an increased risk of the prevalence and mortality from CVD, CHD, stroke, and DM. Continued effort to control ambient PM2.5 concentrations could play an important role in risk reduction of cardiovascular disease and diabetes in the elderly.

关键词： PM2.5 Cardiovascular Disease Coronary Heart Disease Stroke Diabetes Mellitus

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Study on evaluation standard of uncertainty of design wave height calculation model

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2021年第4期39卷 1188-1197页

作者： Baiyu CHEN Yi KOU Fang WU Liping WANG Guilin LIU college of Engineering University of California BerkeleyBerkeley 94720USA dornsife college University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles 90007USA Statistics and Applied Probability University of California Santa BarbaraSanta Barbara 93106USA School of Mathematical Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China college of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266071China

The accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters depends on the probability distribution model,and the calculation results of different distribution models are often *** is very important to determine which distribution model is more stable and reasonable when extrapolating the recurrence level of the studied sea *** this paper,we constructed an evaluation method of the overall uncertainty of the calculation results and a measurement of the uncertainty of the design parameters derivation model,by incorporating the influence of sample information on the model information entropy,such as sample size,degree of dispersion,and sampling *** show that the sample data size and the degree of dispersion are directly proportional to the information *** the same group of data,the maximum entropy distribution model has the lowest overall uncertainty,while the Gumbel distribution model has the largest overall *** other words,the maximum entropy distribution model has good applicability in the accurate calculation of marine environmental design parameters.

关键词： uncertainty information entropy extreme value distribution model

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Maximum Entropy Distribution Function and Uncertainty Evaluation Criteria

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China Ocean Engineering 2021年第2期35卷 238-249页

作者： CHEN Bai-yu KOU Yi ZHAO Daniel WU Fang WANG Li-ping LIU Gui-lin college of Engineering University of California BerkeleyBerkeley 94720USA dornsife college University of Southern CaliforniaLos Angeles 90007USA Department of Mathematics Harvard UniversityCambridge 02138USA Statistics and applied probability University of California Santa BabaraSanta Babara 93106USA School of Mathematical Sciences Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China college of Engineering Ocean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China

Marine environmental design parameter extrapolation has important applications in marine engineering and coastal disaster *** distribution models used for environmental design parameter usually pass the hypothesis tests in statistical analysis,but the calculation results of different distribution models often vary *** this paper,based on the information entropy,the overall uncertainty test criteria were studied for commonly used distributions including Gumbel,Weibull,and Pearson-III *** improved method for parameter estimation of the maximum entropy distribution model is proposed on the basis of moment *** study in this paper shows that the number of sample data and the degree of dispersion are proportional to the information entropy,and the overall uncertainty of the maximum entropy distribution model is minimal compared with other models.

关键词： maximum entropy distribution model uncertainty information entropy evaluation criterion

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Assessment of cerebral oxygenation response to hemodialysis using near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS):Challenges and solutions

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Journal of Innovative Optical Health Sciences 2021年第6期4卷 55-70页

作者： Ardy Wong Lucy Robinson Seena Soroush Aditi Suresh Dia Yang Kelechi Madu Meera N.Harhay Kambiz Pourrezaei Drexel University School of Bioengineering Philadelphia Pennsylvania Department of Epidemiology&Biostatistics Drexel University dornsife School of Public Health Philadelphia Pennsylvania Drexel University college of Arts and Sciences Philadelphia Pennsylvania Department of Medicine Drexel University college of Medicine Philadelphia Pennsylvania Tower Health Transplant Institute Tower Health System West Reading Pennsylvania

To date,the clinical use of functional near-infrared spectroscopy(NIRS)to detect cerebral ischemia has been largely limited to surgical settings,where motion artifacts are *** this study,we present novel techniques to address the challenges of using NIRS to monitor ambu-latory patients with kidney disease during approximately eight hours of hemodialysis(HD)*** with end-stage kidney disease who require HD are at higher risk for cognitive impairment and dementia than age-matched *** studies have suggested that HD-related declines in cerebral blood flow might explain some of the adverse outcomes of HD ***,there are currently no established paradigms for monitoring cerebral per-fusion in real-time during HD *** this study,we used NIRS to assess cerebral hemo-dynamic responses among 95 prevalent HD patients during two consecutive HD *** observed substantial signal attenuation in our predominantly Black patient cohort that required probe *** also observed consistent motion artifacts that we addressed by devel-oping a novel NIRS methodology,called the HD cerebral oxygen demand algorithm(HD-CODA),to identify episodes when cerebral oxygen demand might be outpacing supply during HD *** then examined the association between a summary measure of time spent in cerebral deoxygenation,derived using the HD-CODA,and hemodynamic and treatment-related *** found that this summary measure was associated with intradialytic mean arterial pressure,heart rate,and volume *** studies should use the HD-CODA to implement studies of real-time NIRS monitoring for incident dialysis patients,over longer time frames,and in other dialysis modalities.

关键词： Motion artifact removal cerebral oxygenation end-stage kidney disease near-infrared spectroscopy

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Vitamin d deficiency and metabolic syndrome:The joint effect on cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in the United States adults

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World Journal of Cardiology 2022年第7期14卷 411-426页

作者： Longjian Liu Saishi Cui Stella L Volpe Nathalie S May Deeptha Sukumar Rose Ann DiMaria-Ghalili Howard J Eisen Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Dornsife School of Public HealthDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPA 19104United States Department of Human Nutrition Foodsand ExerciseVirginia Polytechnic Institute and State UniversityBlacksburgVA 24061United States Department of Medicine College of MedicineDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPA 19102United States Department of Nutrition Sciences College of Nursing and Health ProfessionsDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPA 19102United States Department of Graduate Nursing College of Nursing and Health ProfessionsDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPA 19102United States Division of Cardiology Heart and Vascular InstitutePennsylvania State UniversityHersheyPA 17033United States

BACKGROUND The long-term impact of vitamin D deficiency and metabolic syndrome(MetS)on cardiovascular disease(CVD)and all-cause mortality are still a matter of *** To test the hypotheses that lower serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D[25(OH)D]concentrations(a marker of vitamin D level)and MetS have a long-term impact on the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality,and individuals with vitamin D deficiency can be identified by multiple *** A sample of 9094 adults,20 to 90 years of age,who participated in the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES III,1988 to 1994)were followed through December 2015 was *** associations of serum 25(OH)D concentrations and MetS with CVD and all-cause mortality were analyzed longitudinally using Cox regression *** and regression tree(CART)for machine learning was applied to classify individuals with vitamin D *** Of 9094 participants,30%had serum 25(OH)D concentrations<20 ng/mL(defined as vitamin D deficiency),39%had serum 25(OH)D concentrations between 20 to 29 ng/mL(insufficiency),and 31%had serum 25(OH)D concentrations≥30 ng/mL(sufficiency).Prevalence of MetS was 28.4%.During a mean of 18 years follow-up,vitamin D deficiency and MetS were significantly associated with increased risk of CVD and all-cause *** with both vitamin D deficiency and MetS had the highest risk of CVD mortality(HR=1.77,95%CI:1.22-2.58)and all-cause mortality(HR=1.62,95%CI:1.26-2.09),followed by those with both vitamin D insufficiency and MetS for CVD mortality(HR=1.59,95%CI:1.12-2.24),and all-cause mortality(HR=1.41,95%CI:1.08-1.85).Meanwhile,vitamin D sufficiency significantly decreased the risk of CVD and all-cause mortality for those who even had *** the total study sample,CART analysis suggests that being non-Hispanic Black,having lower serum folate level,and being female were the first three predictors for those with serum 25(OH)D *** Vitamin D defic

关键词： Joint effect Serum 25 hydroxyvitamin D concentration Metabolic syndrome Cardiovascular and all-cause mortality Cox model and machine learning

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Complex skin modes in non-Hermitian coupled laser arrays

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Light(Science & Applications) 2022年第12期11卷 3002-3007页

作者： Yuzhou G.N.Liu Yunxuan Wei Omid Hemmatyar Georgios G.Pyrialakos Pawel S.Jung Demetrios N.Christodoulides Mercedeh Khajavikhan Ming Hsieh Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering University of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90089USA CREOL The College of Optics&PhotonicsUniversity of Central FloridaOrlandoFL 32816-2700USA Faculty of Physics Warsaw University of TechnologyKoszykowa 7500-662 WarsawPoland Department of Physics&Astronomy Dornsife College of LettersArts&SciencesUniversity of Southern CaliforniaLos AngelesCA 90089USA

From biological ecosystems to spin glasses,connectivity plays a crucial role in determining the function,dynamics,and resiliency of a *** the realm of non-Hermitian physics,the possibility of complex and asymmetric exchange interactions(|κ_(ij)|≠|κ_(ji)|)between a network of oscillators has been theoretically shown to lead to novel behaviors like delocalization,skin effect,and bulk-boundary *** archetypical lattice exhibiting the aforementioned properties is that proposed by Hatano and Nelson in a series of papers in late *** the ramifications of these theoretical works in optics have been recently pursued in synthetic dimensions,the Hatano-Nelson model has yet to be realized in real *** makes the implementation of these lattices challenging is the difficulty in establishing the required asymmetric exchange interactions in optical *** this work,by using active optical oscillators featuring non-Hermiticity and nonlinearity,we introduce an anisotropic exchange between the resonant elements in a lattice,an aspect that enables us to observe the non-Hermitian skin effect,phase locking,and near-field beam steering in a Hatano-Nelson laser *** work opens up new regimes of phase-locking in lasers while shedding light on the fundamental physics of non-Hermitian systems.

关键词： Hermitian locking Complex

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Impact of diabetes mellitus on risk of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: Evidence on health outcomes and antidiabetic treatment in United States adults

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World Journal of Diabetes 2016年第18期7卷 449-461页

作者： Longjian Liu Barbara Simon Jinggaofu Shi Arshpreet Kaur Mallhi Howard J Eisen Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Drexel University Dornsife School of Public Health Division of Endocrinology Drexel University College of Medicine Division of Cardiology Drexel University College of Medicine

AIMTo examine the epidemic of diabetes mellitus (DM) and its impact on mortality from all-cause and cardiovascular disease (CVD), and to test the effect of antidiabetic therapy on the mortality in United States adults. METHODS The analysis included a randomized population sample of 272149 subjects ages ≥ 18 years who participated in the National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) in2000-2009. Chronic conditions (hypertension, DM and CVD) were classified by participants’ self-reports of physician diagnosis. NHIS-Mortality Linked Files, and NHIS-Medical Expenditure Panel Survey Linkage Fileson prescribed medicines for patients with DM were used to test the research questions. χ 2, Poisson and Cox’s regression models were applied in data *** Of all participants, 22305 (8.2%) had DM. The prevalence of DM significantly increased from 2000 to 2009 in all age groups (P < 0.001). Within an average 7.39 (SD= 3) years of follow-up, male DM patients had 1.56 times higher risk of death from all-cause (HR = 1.56, 95%CI:1.49-1.64), 1.72 times higher from heart disease [1.72 (1.53-1.93)], 1.48 times higher from cerebrovascular disease [1.48 (1.18-1.85)], and 1.67 times higher from CVD [1.67 (1.51-1.86)] than subjects without DM,respectively. Similar results were observed in females. In males, 10% of DM patients did not use any antidiabetic medications, 38.1% used antidiabetic monotherapy, and 51.9% used ≥ 2 antidiabetic medications. These corresponding values were 10.3%, 40.4% and 49.4% in females. A significant protective effect of metformin monotherapy or combination therapy (except for insulin) on all-cause mortality and a protective but non-significant effect on CVD mortality were observed. CONCLUSION This is the first study using data from multiple linkage files to confirm a significant increased prevalence of DM in the last decade in the United States. Patients with DM have significantly higher risk of death from all-cause and CVD than those without DM. Antidiabeti

关键词： Epidemic of diabetes mellitus Cardiovascular disease Pharmacoepidemiologic profiles United States

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Impact of diabetes mellitus and cardiometabolic syndrome on the risk of Alzheimer’s disease among postmenopausal women

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World Journal of Diabetes 2021年第1期12卷 69-83页

作者： Longjian Liu Edward J Gracely Xiaoyan Yin Howard J Eisen Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics Dornsife School of Public HealthDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPA 19104United States Department of Family Community and Preventive MedicineDrexel University College of MedicinePhiladelphiaPA 19129United States Institute for Diabetes Obesity and MetabolismPerelman School of MedicineUniversity of PennsylvaniaPhiladelphiaPA 19104United States Heart and Vascular Institute Pennsylvania State UniversityHersheyPA 17033United States

BACKGROUND In spite of an increase in the incidence and prevalence of diabetes mellitus(DM)and Alzheimer’s disease(AD)in the aging population worldwide,limited attention has been paid to their potential *** To investigate the association of DM and cardiometabolic syndrome(CMS,a precursor to DM)with risk of incident AD among postmenopausal *** Postmenopausal women aged 50-79(n=63117)who participated in the ***’s Health Initiative Observational Study(WHIOS),recruited in 1993-1998,without baseline AD and followed up through March 1,2019,were *** was classified by participant-reported history of doctor-diagnosis of incident AD in the *** was defined by participant-report or treated because of diabetes or serum glucose concentrations≥126 mg/*** was defined as having≥3 of five CMS components:large waist circumference,high blood pressure,elevated triglycerides,elevated glucose,and low high-density lipoprotein *** associations of DM and CMS with AD were analyzed using Cox’s proportional hazards regression *** During a median follow-up of 20 years(range:3.36 to 23.36 years),of 63117 participants,8340 developed incident *** with DM had significantly higher incidence of AD[8.5,95%confidence interval(CI):8.0-9.0 per 1000 personyears(PY)]than those without DM(7.1,95%CI:6.9-7.2 per 1000 PY).Multivariate Cox’s regression analysis indicated that women with DM or CMS had a significantly higher risk of AD than those without DM or *** corresponding hazard ratios[HR(95%CI)]were 1.22(1.13-1.31,P<0.001)in subjects with DM,and 1.18(1.09-1.27,P<0.001)in subjects with *** HRs diminished with age and became non-significant in the oldest age *** During a median follow-up of 20 years,DM and CMS were significantly associated with the risk of AD among postmenopausal *** specifically,women aged 50-69 with DM or CMS vs those without these conditions had significantly higher relative risks of AD th

关键词： Epidemiology Diabetes mellitus Cardiometabolic disorders Alzheimer’s disease Aging population

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