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The risk of mpox importation and subsequent outbreak potential in Chinese mainland: a retrospective statistical modelling study

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Infectious Diseases of Poverty 2024年第1期13卷 63-73页

作者： Xiaowei Deng Yuyang Tian Junyi Zoul Juan Yang Kaiyuan Sun Hongjie Yu School of public health Key Laboratory of Public Health SafetyMinistry of EducationFudan UniversityShanghai 200032China division of International epidemiology and Population Studies Fogarty International CenterNational Institutes of HealthBethesdaMDUSA

Background The 2022-2023 mpox(monkeypox)outbreak has spread rapidly across multiple countries in the non-endemic region,mainly among men who have sex with men(MSM).In this study,we aimed to evaluate mpox's importation risk,border screening effectiveness and the risk of local outbreak in Chinese *** We estimated the risk of mpox importation in Chinese mainland from April 14 to September 11,2022 using the number of reported mpox cases during this multi-country outbreak from *** and the international air-travel data from Official Aviation *** constructed a probabilistic model to simulate the effectiveness of a border screening scenario during the mpox outbreak and a hypothetical scenario with less stringent quarantine *** we further evaluated the mpox outbreak potential given that undetected mpox infections were introduced into men who have sex with men,considering different transmissibility,population immunity and population *** We found that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy decreased about 94% and 69% mpox importations *** the quarantine policy,15-19% of imported infections would remain *** a case of mpox is introduced into active MSM population with almost no population immunity,the risk of triggering local transmission is estimated at 42%,and would rise to>95% with over six *** Our study demonstrates that the reduced international air-travel volume and stringent border entry policy during the COvID-19 pandemic reduced mpox importations ***,the risk could be sub-stantially higher with the recovery of air-travel volume to pre-pandemic *** could emerge as a public health threat for Chinese mainland given its large MSM community.

关键词： Mpox(Monkeypox) Importation risk International air travel Statistical modelling Men who have sex with men

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Reflections on four decades of physical activity epidemiology

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Journal of Sport and health Science 2024年第5期13卷 608-610页

作者： Barbara Sternfeld David R.Jacobs Jr. division of Research Kaiser Permanente Northern CaliforniaOaklandCA 94610USA division of epidemiology and Community health School of Public HealthUniversity of MinnesotaMinneapolisMN 55454USA

In 1985,public health Reports published a series of papers prepared for a workshop sponsored by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC).1 Building on the seminal work of Jeremy Morris and Ralph Paffenbarger Jr.,who were among the first to use epidemiological methods to study physical activity(PA),2,3 the workshop itself was the result of a growing scientific understanding of the importance of“physical fitness and exercise for improving the health of the public”.

关键词： semi workshop Ralph

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Weight change and all-cause and cause-specific mortality:A 25-year follow-up study

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第10期137卷 1169-1178页

作者： Huan Yang Jianbing Wang Xiaokun Wang Wanyi Sun Chenyunhao Tong Jinhu Fan Youlin Qiao Christian *** Department of Cancer epidemiology National Cancer Center/National Clinical Research Center for Cancer/Cancer HospitalChinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100021China Department of public health Zhejiang University School of MedicineNational Clinical Research Center for Children’s HealthHangzhouZhejiang 310058China Metabolic epidemiology Branch Division of Cancer Epidemiology and GeneticsNational Cancer InstituteRockvilleMD 20850USA

Background:Whether the dynamic weight change is an independent risk factor for mortality remains *** study aimed to examine the association between weight change and risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality based on the Linxian Nutrition Intervention Trial(NIT)***:Body weight of 21,028 healthy residents of Linxian,Henan province,aged 40-69 years was measured two times from 1986 to *** events were prospectively collected up to *** maintenance group(weight change<2 kg)or stable normal weight group was treated as the *** proportional hazard model was performed to calculate hazard ratios(HRs)and 95%confidence intervals(95%CIs)to estimate the risk of ***:A total of 21,028 subjects were included in the final *** with the weight maintenance group,subjects with weight loss≥2 kg had an increased risk of death from all-cause(HR_(All-cause)=1.14,95%CI:1.09-1.19,P<0.001),cancer(HR_(Cancer)=1.12,95%CI:1.03-1.21,P=0.009),and heart disease(HR_(Heart diseases)=1.21,95%CI:1.11-1.31,P<0.001),whereas subjects with weight gain≥5 kg had 11%(HR_(Cancer)=0.89,95%CI:0.79-0.99,P=0.033)lower risk of cancer mortality and 23%higher risk of stroke mortality(HR_(Stroke)=1.23,95%CI:1.12-1.34,P<0.001).For the change of weight status,both going from overweight to normal weight and becoming underweight within 5 years could increase the risk of total death(HR_(Overweight to normal)=1.18,95%CI:1.09-1.27;HR_(Becoming underweight)=1.35,95%CI:1.25-1.46)and cancer death(HR_(Overweight to normal)=1.20,95%CI:1.04-1.39;HR_(Becoming underweight)=1.44,95%CI:1.24-1.67),while stable overweight could increase the risk of total death(HR_(Stable overweight)=1.11,95%CI:1.05-1.17)and death from stroke(HR_(Stable overweight)=1.44,95%CI:1.33-1.56).Interaction effects were observed between age and weight change on cancer mortality,as well as between baseline BMI and weight change on all-cause,heart disease,and stroke mortality(all P_(

关键词： Weight change All-cause mortality Cancer Stroke Heart diseases Body mass index

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Molybdenum Concentration and the Risk of Spontaneous Preterm Birth: A Nested Case-Control Study — Beijing Municipality, China, 2018–2020

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China CDC weekly 2024年第13期6卷 261-266,I0005,I0006页

作者： Junhua Huang Wei Zheng Aili Wang Weiling Han Junxi Chen Hang An Lailai Yan Zhiwen Li Guanghui Li division of Endocrinology and Metabolism Department of ObstetricsBeijing Obstetrics and Gynecology HospitalCapital Medical University.Beijing Maternal and Child Health Care HospitalBeijingChina Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology Beijing Luhe HospitalCapital Medical UniversityBeijingChina Institute of Reproductive and Child health National Health Commission Key Laboratory of Reproductive HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina Department of epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina Department of Laboratorial Science and Technology School of Public HealthPeking UniversityBeijingChina

What is already known about this topic?The level of molybdenum(Mo)in a mother’s urine has been linked to the growth rate of the fetus and the blood pressure levels in *** is added by this report?We evaluated the variations in maternal plasma Mo concentrations throughout pregnancy and their potential association with the risk of spontaneous preterm birth(SPB).What are the implications for public health practice?Future research must determine the Mo levels in pregnant women across various regions in ***,particular attention needs to be given to the potential increase in Mo concentration throughout pregnancy and its possible adverse impacts on the health of both the mother and the fetus.

关键词： mother urine pregnancy

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Associations between parental adherence to healthy lifestyles and cognitive performance in offspring:A prospective cohort study in China

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第6期137卷 683-693页

作者： Rongxia Lv Yuhui Huang Siyi Huang Shiyi Wu Siwen Wang Guangyu Hu Yanan Ma Peige Song Jorge E.Chavarro S.V.Subramanian Chunling Lu Zhihui Li Changzheng Yuan School of public health the Second Affiliated HospitalZhejiang University School of MedicineHangzhouZhejiang 310058China Department of Nutrition Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public HealthBostonMA 02115USA Institute of Medical Information/Center for health Policy and Management Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical CollegeBeijing 100730China Department of Biostatistics and epidemiology School of Public HealthChina Medical UniversityShenyangLiaoning 110122China Department of Social and Behavioral Sciences Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public HealthBostonMA 02115USA division of Global health Equity Brigham and Women’s HospitalHarvard Medical SchoolBostonMA 02115USA Department of Global health and Social Medicine Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMA 02115USA Vanke School of public health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Department of Global health and Population Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public HealthBostonMA 02115USA

Background:Previous studies have reported associations of specific maternal and paternal lifestyle factors with offspring’s cognitive development during early *** study aimed to investigate the prospective associations between overall parental lifestyle and offspring’s cognitive performance during adolescence and young adulthood in ***:We included 2531 adolescents aged 10-15 years at baseline in 2010 from the China Family Panel Studies.A healthy parental lifestyle score(ranged 0-5)was constructed based on the following five modifiable lifestyle factors:Smoking,drinking,exercise,sleep,and *** estimating equation models were used to examine the association between baseline parental healthy lifestyle scores and offspring’s fluid and crystallized intelligence in subsequent years(2012,2014,2016,and 2018).Results:Offspring in the top tertile of parental healthy lifestyle scores performed better in overall fluid intelligence(multivariable-adjusted β=0.53,95%confidence interval[CI]:0.29-0.77)and overall crystallized intelligence(multivariable-adjusted β=0.35,95%CI:0.16-0.54)than those in the bottom tertile of parental healthy lifestyle *** results were similar after further adjustment for the offspring’s healthy lifestyle scores and persisted across the subgroups of parental socioeconomic ***,maternal and paternal healthy lifestyle scores were independently associated with better offspring’s cognitive performance,with significant contribution observed for paternal never-smoking,weekly exercise,and diversified *** both parents and offspring adhered to a healthier lifestyle,we observed the highest level of the offspring’s overall crystallized ***:Our study indicates that parental adherence to a healthier lifestyle is associated with significantly better offspring’s cognitive performance during adolescence and early adulthood,regardless of socioeconomic *** findings highlight the poten

关键词： Cohort study Parental healthy lifestyle Offspring Cognitive performance Intelligence Adolescence

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Development,validation,and transportability of several machine-learned,non-exercise-based VO_(2max)prediction models for older adults

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Journal of Sport and health Science 2024年第5期13卷 611-620页

作者： Benjamin T.Schumacher Michael J.LaMonte Andrea Z.LaCroix Eleanor M.Simonsick Steven P.Hooker Humberto Parada Jr. John Bellettiere Arun Kumar Herbert Wertheim School of public health and Human Longevity Science University of California San DiegoLa JollaCA 92093USA Department of epidemiology and Environmental health School of Public Health and Health ProfessionsUniversity at BuffaloState University of New YorkBuffaloNY 14214USA Translational Gerontology Branch Intramural Research ProgramNational Institute on AgingNational Institutes of HealthBaltimoreMD 21225USA College of health and Human Services San Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA 92182USA division of epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthSan Diego State UniversitySan DiegoCA 92182USA University of California San Diego Moores Cancer Center La JollaCA 92093USA Computer Science and Engineering and Halicioglu Data Science Institute University of California San DiegoLa JollaCA 92093USA

Background:There exist few maximal oxygen uptake(VO_(2max))non-exercise-based prediction equations,fewer using machine learning(ML),and none specifically for older *** direct measurement of VO_(2max)is infeasible in large epidemiologic cohort studies,we sought to develop,validate,compare,and assess the transportability of several ML VO_(2max)prediction ***:The Baltimore Longitudinal Study of Aging(BLSA)participants with valid VO2_(max)tests were included(n=1080).Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator,linear-and tree-boosted extreme gradient boosting,random forest,and support vector machine(SVM)algorithms were trained to predict VO_(2max)*** developed these algorithms for:(a)the overall BLSA,(b)by sex,(c)using all BLSA variables,and(d)variables common in aging ***,we quantified the associations between measured and predicted VO_(2max)and ***:The age was 69.0±10.4 years(mean±SD)and the measured VO_(2max)was 21.6±5.9 mL/kg/*** absolute shrinkage and selection operator,linear-and tree-boosted extreme gradient boosting,random forest,and support vector machine yielded root mean squared errors of 3.4 mL/kg/min,3.6 mL/kg/min,3.4 mL/kg/min,3.6 mL/kg/min,and 3.5 mL/kg/min,*** quartiles of measured VO_(2max)showed an inverse gradient in mortality *** VO_(2max)variables yielded similar effect estimates but were not robust to ***:Measured VO_(2max)is a strong predictor of *** ML can improve the accuracy of prediction as compared to simpler approaches but estimates of association with mortality remain sensitive to *** studies should seek to reproduce these results so that VO_(2max),an important vital sign,can be more broadly studied as a modifiable target for promoting functional resiliency and healthy aging.

关键词： Cardiorespiratory fitness Prediction algorithms epidemiology Mortality

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Psychiatric comorbidities in epilepsy:population co-occurrence,genetic correlations and causal effects

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General Psychiatry 2024年第1期37卷 103-111页

作者： Viktor H Ahlqvist Christina Dardani Paul Madley-Dowd Harriet Forbes Jessica Rast Caichen Zhong Renee M Gardner Christina Dalman Kristen Lyal cRAIG Newschaffer Torbjorn Tomson Michael Lundberg Daniel Berglind Neil M Davies Brian K Lee Cecilia Magnusson Dheeraj Rai Department of Global public health Karolinska InstitutetStockholmSweden Medical Research Council Integrative epidemiology Unit Bristol Medical SchoolUniversity of BristolBristolUK Centre for Academic Mental health Population Health SciencesBristol Medical SchoolUniversity of BristolBristolUK Faculty of epidemiology and Population health London School of Hygiene and Tropical MedicineLondonUK A.J.Drexel Autism Institute Drexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPAUSA Department of epidemiology and Biostatistics School of Public HealthDrexel UniversityPhiladelphiaPAUSA College of health and Human Development Pennsylvania State UniversityState CollegePAUSA Department of Clinical Neuroscience Karolinska InstitutetStockholmSweden Centre for epidemiology and Community Medicine Region StockholmStockholmSweden K.G Jebsen Center for Genetic epidemiology Department of Public Health and NursingNorwegian University of Science and TechnologyTrondheimNorway division of Psychiatry University Collge LondonLondonUK Department of Statistical Sciences University Cllge LondonLondonK NIHR Biomedical Research Centre University of BristoBristolUK Avon and Wiltshire Partnership NHS Mental Health TrustBristolUK

Background Psychiatric comorbidities are common in patients with *** for the co-occurrence of psychiatric conditions and epilepsy remain poorly *** We aimed to triangulate the relationship between epilepsy and psychiatric conditions to determine the extent and possible origins of these *** Using nationwide Swedish health registries,we quantified the lifetime prevalence of psychiatric disorders in patients with *** then used summarydata from genome-wide association studies to investigate whether the identified observational associations could be attributed to a shared underlying genetic aetiology using cross-trait linkage disequilibrium score ***,we assessed the potential bidirectional relationships using two-sample Mendelian *** In a cohort of 7628495 individuals,we found that almost half of the 94435 individuals diagnosed with epilepsy were also diagnosed with a psychiatric condition in their lifetime(adjusted lifetime prevalence,44.09%;95%confidence interval(Cl)43.78%to 44.39%).We found evidence for a genetic correlation between epilepsy and some neurodevelopmental and psychiatric *** example,we observed a genetic correlation between epilepsy and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder(r,=0.18,95%Cl 0.09 to 0.27,p<0.001)—a correlation that was more pronounced in focal epilepsy(r=0.23,95%CI 0.09 to 0.36,p<0.001).Findings from Mendelian randomisation using common genetic variants did not support bidirectional effects between epilepsy and neurodevelopmental or psychiatric *** Psychiatric comorbidities are common in patients with *** correlations may partially explain some comorbidities;however,there is little evidence of a bidirectional relationship between the genetic liability of epilepsy and psychiatric *** findings highlight the need to understand the role of environmental factors or rare genetic variations in the origins of psy

关键词： epilepsy Psychiat lifetime

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Birth weight,ideal cardiovascular health metrics in adulthood,and incident cardiovascular disease

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Chinese Medical Journal 2024年第10期137卷 1160-1168页

作者： Ying Sun Bin Wang Yuefeng Yu Yuying Wang Xiao Tan Jihui Zhang Lu Qi Yingli Lu Ningjian Wang Department of Endocrinology and Metabolism Institute of Endocrinology and MetabolismShanghai Ninth People’s HospitalShanghai Jiao Tong University School of MedicineShanghai 200011China School of public health Zhejiang UniversityHangzhouZhejiang 310058China Department of Medical Sciences Uppsala UniversityUppsala 75105Sweden Center for Sleep and Circadian Medicine The Affiliated Brain Hospital of Guangzhou Medical UniversityGuangzhouGuangdong 510370China Department of epidemiology School of Public Health and Tropical MedicineTulane UniversityNew OrleansLA 70118USA Department of Nutrition Harvard T.H.Chan School of Public HealthBostonMA 02138USA Channing division of Network Medicine Department of MedicineBrigham and Women’s Hospital and Harvard Medical SchoolBostonMA 02138USA

Background:Prenatal and postnatal factors may have joint effects on cardiovascular health,and we aimed to assess the joint association of birth weight and ideal cardiovascular health metrics(ICVHMs)prospectively in adulthood with incident cardiovascular disease(CVD).Methods:In the UK Biobank,227,833 participants with data on ICVHM components and birth weight and without CVD at baseline were *** ICVHMs included smoking,body mass index,physical activity,diet information,total cholesterol,blood pressure,and hemoglobin *** Cox proportional hazards model was used to estimate the hazard ratios(HRs)and 95%confidence intervals(CIs)in men and ***:Over a median follow-up period of 13.0 years(2,831,236 person-years),we documented 17,477 patients with incident *** with participants with birth weights of 2.5-4.0 kg,the HRs(95%CIs)of CVD among those with low birth weights was 1.08(1.00-1.16)in men and 1.23(1.16-1.31)in *** association between having a birth weighthealth metrics were jointly related to an increased risk of *** with birth weights<2.5 kg and ICVHMs score 0-1 had the highest risk of incident CVD(HR[95%CI]:3.93[3.01-5.13]in men;4.24[3.33-5.40]in women).The joint effect(HR[95%CI]:1.36[1.17-1.58])could be decomposed into 24.7%(95%CI:15.0%-34.4%)for a lower birth weight,64.7%(95%CI:56.7%-72.6%)for a lower ICVHM score,and 10.6%(95%CI:2.7%-18.6%)for their additive interaction in ***:Birth weight and ICVHMs were jointly related to CVD *** a normal birth weight and ideal ICVHMs may reduce the risk of CVD,and a simultaneous improvement of both prenatal and postnatal factors could further prevent additional cases in women.

关键词： Birth weight health metrics Cardiovascular disease Adult Stroke Coronary heart disease

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Unraveling the nexus between cellular senescence and malignant transformation:a paradigm shift in cancer research

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Cancer biology & Medicine 2024年第7期21卷 541-546页

作者： Xiaoyu Song Xiyan Liu Qiqiang Guo Hongde Xu Liu Cao The College of Basic Medical Science Health Sciences Institute China Medical University Key Laboratory of Cell biology of Ministry of public health Key Laboratory of Medical Cell Biology of Ministry of Education Key Laboratory of Precision Diagnosis and Treatment of Gastrointestinal Tumors of Ministry of Education Liaoning Province Collaborative Innovation Center of Aging Related Disease Diagnosis and Treatment and Prevention China Medical University

Cellular senescence, a natural process wherein cells cease division and undergo irreversible growth arrest, has long captivated the curiosity of scientists because of its many implications in aging and disease. Recent research has shed light on the nexus between cellular senescence and malignant transformation, thus leading to a paradigm shift in understanding cancer development and progression.

关键词： TUMORIGENESIS CELLS BRCA1

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Predictive Ability of Hypertriglyceridemic Waist,Hypertriglyceridemic Waist-to-Height Ratio,and Waist-to-Hip Ratio for Cardiometabolic Risk Factors Clustering Screening among Chinese Children and Adolescents

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Biomedical and Environmental Sciences 2024年第3期37卷 233-241页

作者： XIAO Tian Li YUAN Shu Qian GAO Jing Yu Julien SBaker YANG Yi De WANG Xi Jie ZHENG Chan Juan DONG Yan Hui ZOU Zhi Yong Key Laboratory of Molecular epidemiology of Hunan Province School of MedicineHunan Normal UniversityChangsha 410081HunanChina The Institute of Interdisciplinary Studies Hunan Normal UniversityChangsha 410013HunanChina Chenzhou First People's Hospital Chenzhou 423000HunanChina Centre for health and Exercise Science Research Hong Kong Baptist UniversityKowloon TongHong Kong 999077China Department of Sport Physical Education and HealthHong Kong Baptist UniversityKowloon TongHong Kong 999077China Vanke School of public health Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China Institute of Child and Adolescent health School of Public HealthPeking University Health Science CenterBeijing 100191China

Objective Hypertriglyceridemic waist(HW),hypertriglyceridemic waist-to-height ratio(HWHtR),and waist-to-hip ratio(WHR)have been shown to be indicators of cardiometabolic risk ***,it is not clear which indicator is more suitable for children and *** aimed to investigate the relationship between HW,HWHtR,WHR,and cardiovascular risk factors clustering to determine the best screening tools for cardiometabolic risk in children and *** This was a national cross-sectional *** and biochemical variables were assessed in approximately 70,000 participants aged 6–18 years from seven provinces in ***,physical activity,dietary intake,and family history of chronic diseases were obtained through ***,χ2 and logistic regression analysis was *** A significant sex difference was observed for HWHtR and WHR,but not for HW *** risk of cardiometabolic health risk factor clustering with HW phenotype or the HWHtR phenotype was significantly higher than that with the non-HW or non-HWHtR phenotypes among children and adolescents(HW:OR=12.22,95%CI:9.54-15.67;HWHtR:OR=9.70,95%CI:6.93-13.58).Compared with the HW and HWHtR phenotypes,the association between risk of cardiometabolic health risk factors(CHRF)clustering and high WHR was much weaker and not significant(WHR:OR=1.14,95%CI:0.97-1.34).Conclusion Compared with HWHtR and WHR,the HW phenotype is a more convenient indicator with higher applicability to screen children and adolescents for cardiovascular risk factors.

关键词： Hypertriglyceridemic waist Waist-to-hip ratio Children and adolescents China Hypertriglyceridemic waist-to-height ratio Cardiovascular risk factors

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