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Predictive modeling of COVID-19 death cases in Pakistan

Infectious Disease Modelling 2020年第1期5卷 897-904页

作者： Muhammad Daniyal Roseline Oluwaseun Ogundokun Khadijah Abid Muhammad Danyal Khan Opeyemi Eyitayo Ogundokun department of Statistics Islamia University of BahawalpurPakistan department of Computer Science Landmark University Omu AranNigeria Research Evaluation Unit College of Physicians&SurgeonsPakistan Gillani Law College BZU MultanPakistan directoriate department Audit SectionAgricultural and Rural Management Training InstituteIlorinNigeria

Background:The world is presently facing the challenges posed by COVID-19(2019-nCoV),especially in the public health sector,and these challenges are dangerous to both health and *** disease results in an acute respiratory infection that may result in pain and *** Pakistan,the disease curve shows a vertical trend by almost 256K established cases of the diseases and 6035 documented death cases till August 5,***:The primary purpose of this study is to provide the statistical model to predict the trend of COVID-19 death cases in *** age and gender of COVID-19 victims were represented using a descriptive ***:ology:Three regression models,which include Linear,logarithmic,and quadratic,were employed in this study for the modelling of COVID-19 death cases in *** three models were compared based on R2,Adjusted R2,AIC,and BIC *** data utilized for the modelling was obtained from the National Institute of Health of Pakistan from February 26,2020 to August 5,***:The finding deduced after the prediction modelling is that the rate of mortality would decrease by the end of *** total number of deaths will reach its maximum point;then,it will gradually *** indicates that the curve of total deaths will continue to be flat,i.e.,it will shift to be constant,which is also the upper bound of the underlying function of absolute death.

关键词： Coronavirus COVID-19 Public health Epidemic Modelling Model selection criteria

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