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Paleoclimate data assimilation: Principles and prospects

Science China earth sciences 2025年

作者： Haoxun ZHANG Mingsong LI Yongyun HU Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution Ministry of Education School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University State Key Laboratory of Shale Oil and Gas Enrichment Mechanisms and Effective Development Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University Institute of Ocean Research Peking University

Reconstructing climate states during geological periods is a key focus in studying earth system evolution. Substantial progress has been achieved in reconstructing paleoclimate and paleoenvironment using both earth system models and paleoclimate proxies. However, current paleoclimate reconstructions face several challenges:the accuracy of earth system model simulations relies on model parameter settings. Paleoclimate proxy data exhibit significant variability across different periods and regions, and proxy data are often sparse, hindering the accuracy and global relevance of proxy-based *** the pros and cons of these methods, paleoclimate data assimilation can effectively integrate earth system models and paleoclimate proxy data, enhancing the precision and global relevance of reconstructions. Using approaches such as the ensemble Kalman filter as an example, this paper introduces the principles of paleoclimate data assimilation and reviews recent advancements in reconstructing paleoclimate states using these techniques. Paleoclimate data assimilation offers new insights and advanced techniques for paleoclimate reconstruction, with potential applications extending to the entire Cenozoic, Mesozoic, and even Paleozoic eras. These applications could deepen our understanding of the past climatic backgrounds of extreme climate events such as glacial-interglacial cycles, hyperthermals, and oceanic anoxic events, providing a reference for predicting future climate change.

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Statistical analysis on the validity of the cold plasma approximation for chorus waves based on Van Allen Probe observations and their effects on radiation belt electrons

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earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第1期9卷 159-170页

作者： AoJun Ren Jiang Yu Jing Wang ZuZheng Chen XiaoMan Liu Planetary Environmental and Astrobiological Research Laboratory(PEARL) School of Atmospheric SciencesSun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhai Guangdong 519000China

Theoretical analysis has demonstrated that the dispersion relation of chorus waves plays an essential role in the resonant interaction and energy transformation between the waves and magnetospheric *** quantitative analyses often simplified the chorus dispersion relation by using the cold plasma ***,the applicability of the cold plasma assumption is doubtful,especially during geomagnetic *** here present a systematic statistical analysis on the validity of the cold plasma dispersion relation of chorus waves based on observations from the Van Allen Probes over the period from 2012 to *** statistical results show that the observed magnetic field intensities deviate substantially from those calculated from the cold plasma dispersion relation and that they become more pronounced with an increase in geomagnetic activity or a decrease in background plasma *** region with large deviations is mainly concentrated in the nightside and expands in both the radial and azimuthal directions as the geomagnetic activity increases or the background plasma density *** addition,the bounce-averaged electron scattering rates are computed by using the observed and cold plasma dispersion relation of chorus *** with usage of the cold plasma dispersion relation,usage of the observed dispersion relation considerably lowers the minimum resonant energy of electrons and lowers the scattering rates of electrons above tens of kiloelectronvolts but enhances those ***,these differences are more pronounced with the enhancement of geomagnetic activity or the decrease in background plasma density.

关键词： chorus waves cold plasma approximation dispersion relations scattering rates

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Spatiotemporal evolution of wildfire activity during the PaleoceneEocene Thermal Maximum in China

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Science China earth sciences 2025年

作者： Xueting WANG Zuoling CHEN Linlin CUI Xu WANG State Key Laboratory of Lithospheric and Environmental Coevolution Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of sciences College of Earth and Planetary Sciences Institute of Geology and Geophysics Chinese Academy of Sciences

The Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum（PETM） was the most prominent warming event in the Cenozoic and serves as a geological analog for the current global warming driven by anthropogenic CO2emissions from burning fossil *** a primary disruptor of earth's ecosystems, wildfire activity affects the balance of ecosystems, the global carbon cycle, and climate change. Therefore, studying the evolution and driving mechanisms of wildfires during the PETM is essential for predicting wildfire activity under global warming scenarios and for understanding the carbon cycle in the context of wildfire disturbances. Current research on wildfires during the PETM has mainly focused on the Northern Hemisphere, particularly Europe and North America, whereas studies on Chinese mainland remain limited. In this study, we analyzed black carbon（BC）concentration and carbon isotope(δ13C) in the Beigou section of the Nanyang Basin and the Xilutian section of the Fushun Basin to reconstruct the spatiotemporal evolution of wildfires in arid/semi-arid and humid zones. We integrated these findings with those of previous studies on the paleoclimate of the research area to elucidate the driving mechanisms behind wildfire occurrences. Our results indicate that wildfire activity weakened at the onset of the PETM, with the negative carbon isotope period characterized by low wildfire activity, except for a brief resurgence in the Nanyang Basin. During the recovery phase of the PETM, wildfire activity gradually increased, returning to the pre-PETM levels. The prolonged low wildfire state was likely caused by extremely high temperatures and precipitation as well as the resulting vegetation succession. During the PETM recovery phase, increased wildfire activity transformed “short-term carbon sinks” of the biological-atmospheric carbon cycle into “long-term carbon sinks” through the burial of BC. This process of carbon sink conversion may have acted as a negative feedback mechanism, contributing to carbo

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A robust statistical prediction model for late-summer heavy precipitation days in North China

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Science China earth sciences 2025年第1期68卷 158-171页

作者： Shunli JIANG Tingting HAN Xin ZHOU Huijun WANG Zhicong YIN Xiaolei SONG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education Nanjing University for Information Science and Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Recently, heavy precipitation(HP) events have occurred frequently in North China(NC), causing devastating economic losses and human fatalities. However, the short-term climate prediction of HP is quite limited. Combining year-to-year increment(DY) method and sliding correlations, we developed a robust seasonal prediction model for late-summer HP days(HPDs) in NC during 1982–2022, utilizing three independent predictors—February sea surface temperature(SST) in the Indian Ocean(SST＿IO), February snow depth over North Asia(SDE＿NA), and May melted snow depth in NC(MSDE＿NC). The SST＿IO anomalies affect NC's precipitation through the Pacific-Japan pattern. The SDE＿NA anomalies are associated with East Asian anomalous anticyclone by southeastern propagation of Rossby wave at Eurasia. The MSDE＿NC anomalies are followed by vertical motion and moisture anomalies in situ and thereby cause precipitation anomalies. This prediction model can well simulate the variations of the HPDs, with a correlation coefficient(CC) of 0.81(0.65) between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly). The percentage with the same sign for 15 extreme HPDs＿anomaly years(PSSE) is 100%.Moreover, in the cross-validation test during 1982–2022, the PSSE for HPDs＿anomaly is as high as 100%, along with a low rootmean-square error of 1.14. For independent hindcasts during 2013–2022, the CC between the observed and predicted HPDs＿DY(HPDs＿anomaly) is 0.93(0.83), together with high Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency(0.82) and agreement index(0.89). Specifically, the predictions are broadly consistent with the observations for 2015, 2016, 2017, 2021, and 2022, reflecting excellent performance of this prediction model of HPDs in NC.

关键词： Heavy precipitation at North China Year-to-year increment approach Robust seasonal prediction Sea surface temperature Snow depth

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Simulated effects of interactions between ocean acidification,marine organism calcification, and organic carbon export on ocean carbon and oxygen cycles

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Science China earth sciences 2018年第6期61卷 804-822页

作者： Han ZHANG Long CAO Department of atmospheric sciences School of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University

Ocean acidification caused by oceanic uptake of anthropogenic carbon dioxide(CO_2) tends to suppress the calcification of some marine organisms. This reduced calcification then enhances surface ocean alkalinity and increases oceanic CO_2 uptake, a process that is termed calcification feedback. On the other hand, decreased calcification also reduces the export flux of calcium carbonate(Ca CO_3), potentially reducing Ca CO_3-bound organic carbon export flux and CO_2 uptake, a process that is termed ballast feedback. In this study, we incorporate a range of different parameterizations of the links between organic carbon export, calcification, and ocean acidification into an earth system model, in order to quantify the long-term effects on oceanic CO_2 uptake that result from calcification and ballast feedbacks. We utilize an intensive CO_2 emission scenario to drive the model in which an estimated fossil fuel resource of 5000 Pg C is burnt out over the course of just a few centuries. Simulated results show that, in the absence of both calcification and ballast feedbacks, by year 3500, accumulated oceanic CO_2 uptake is2041 Pg C. Inclusion of calcification feedback alone increases the simulated uptake by 629 Pg C(31%), while the inclusion of both calcification and ballast feedbacks increase simulated uptake by 449–498 Pg C(22–24%), depending on the parameter values used in the ballast feedback scheme. These results indicate that ballast effect counteracts calcification effect in oceanic CO_2 uptake. Ballast effect causes more organic carbon to accumulate and decompose in the upper ocean, which in turn leads to decreased oxygen concentration in the upper ocean and increased oxygen at depths. By year 2600, the inclusion of ballast effect would decrease oxygen concentration by 11% at depth of ca. 200 m in tropics. Our study highlights the potentially critical effects of interactions between ocean acidification, marine organism calcification, and Ca CO3-bound organic carbon

关键词： Ocean carbon cycle Ocean acidification Carbon cycle modeling Carbon cycle-climate feedback

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Simulated effect of sunshade solar geoengineering on the global carbon cycle

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Science China earth sciences 2018年第9期61卷 1306-1315页

作者： Jiu JIANG Han ZHANG Long CAO Department of atmospheric sciences School of Earth Sciences Zhejiang University

Solar geoengineering has been proposed as a potential mechanism to counteract global wanning. Here we use the University of Victoria earth System Model （UVic） to simulate the effect of idealized sunshade geoengineering on the global carbon cycle. We conduct two simulations. The first is the A2 simulation, where the model is driven by prescribed emission scenario based on the SRES A2 COz emission pathway. The second is the solar geoengineering simulation in which the model is driven by the A2 CO2 emission scenario combined with sunshade solar geoengineering. In the model, solar geoengineering is represented by a spatially uniform reduction in solar insolation that is implemented at year 2020 to offset CO2-induced global mean surface temperature change. Our results show that solar geoengineering increases global carbon uptake relative to A2, in particular CO2 uptake by the terrestrial biosphere. The increase in land carbon uptake is mainly associated with increased net primary production （NPP） in the tropics in the geoengineering simulation, which prevents excess warming in tropics. By year 2100, solar geoengineering decreases A2-simulated atmospheric CO2 by 110 ppm （12%） and causes a 60% （251 Pg C） increase in land carbon accumulation compared to A2. Solar geoengineering also prevents the reduction in ocean oxygen concentration caused by increased ocean temperatures and decreased ocean ventilation, but reduces global ocean NPE Our results suggest that to fully access the climate effect of solar geoengineering, the response of the global carbon cycle should be taken into account.

关键词： Solar geoengineering Carbon cycle Climate change Ocean biogeochemistry

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Parameterization for the depth of the Entrainment Zone above the Convectively Mixed Layer

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2005年第1期22卷 114-121页

作者：孙鉴泞蒋维楣陈子赟袁仁民 Department of atmospheric sciences Department of earth and Space sciences

It has been noted that when the convective Richardson number Ri* is used to characterize the depth of the entrainment zone, various parameterization schemes can be obtained. This situation is often attributed to the invalidity of parcel theory. However, evidence shows that the convective Richardson number Ri* might be an improper characteristic scaling parameter for the entrainment process. An attempt to use an innovative parameter to parameterize the entrainment-zone thickness has been made in this paper. Based on the examination of the data of water-tank experiments and atmospheric measurements, it is found that the total lapse rate of potential temperature across the entrainment zone is proportional to that of the capping inversion layer. Inserting this relationship into the so-called parcel theory, it thus gives a new parameterization scheme for the depth of the entrainment zone. This scheme includes the lapse rate of the capping inversion layer that plays an important role in the entrainment process. Its physical representation is reasonable. The new scheme gives a better ordering of the data measured in both water-tank and atmosphere as compared with the traditional method using Ri*. These indicate that the parcel theory can describe the entrainment process suitably and that the new parameter is better than Ri*.

关键词： convectively mixed layer the depth of the entrainment zone capping inversion layer parameterization scheme parcel theory

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Proto-South China Sea Plate Tectonics Using Subducted Slab Constraints from Tomography

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Journal of earth Science 2018年第6期29卷 1304-1318页

作者： Jonny Wu John Suppe Department of earth and atmospheric sciences University of Houston

The past size and location of the hypothesized proto-South China Sea vanished ocean basin has important plate-tectonic implications for Southeast Asia since the Mesozoic. Here we present new details on proto-South China Sea paleogeography using mapped and unfolded slabs from tomography. Mapped slabs included： the Eurasia-South China Sea slab subducting at the Manila trench; the northern Philippine Sea Plate slab subducting at the Ryukyu trench; and, a swath of detached, subhorizontal, slab-like tomographic anomalies directly under the South China Sea at 450 to 700 km depths that we show is subducted ‘northern proto-South China Sea’ lithosphere. Slab unfolding revealed that the South China Sea lay directly above the ‘northern Proto-South China Sea’ with both extending 400 to 500 km to the east of the present Manila trench prior to subduction. Our slab-based plate reconstruction indicated the proto-South China Sea was consumed by double-sided subduction, as follows：（1） The ‘northern proto-South China Sea’ subducted in the Oligo–Miocene under the Dangerous Grounds and southward expanding South China Sea by in-place ‘self subduction’ similar to the western Mediterranean basins;（2） limited southward subduction of the proto-South China Sea under Borneo occurred pre-Oligocene, represented by the 800–900 km deep ‘southern proto-South China Sea’ slab.

关键词： seismic tomography plate tectonics South China Sea proto-South China Sea subducted slabs Borneo Oligocene–Miocene

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An accurately fast algorithm of calculating reflection/transmission coefficients

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Science China(Physics,Mechanics & Astronomy) 2008年第7期51卷 823-846页

作者： CASTAGNA J P Department of earth and atmospheric sciences University of Houston

For the boundary between transversely isotropic media with a vertical axis of symmetry (VTI media), the interface between a liquid and a VTI medium, and the free-surface of an elastic half-space of a VTI medium, an accurately fast algorithm was presented for calculating reflection/transmission (R/T) coefficients. Specially, the case of post-critical angle incidence was considered. Although we only performed the numerical calculation for the models of the VTI media, the calculated results can be extended to the models of transversely isotropic media with a horizontal axis of rotation symmetry (HTI media). Compared to previous work, this algorithm can be used not only for the calculation of R/T coefficients of the boundary between ellipsoidally anisotropic media, but also for that between generally anisotropic media, and the speed and accuracy of this algorithm are faster and higher. According to the anisotropic parameters of some rocks given by the published literature, we performed the calculation of R/T coefficients by using this algorithm and analyzed the effect of the rock anisotropy on R/T coefficients. We used Snell's law and the energy balance principle to perform verification for the calculated results.

关键词： reflection/transmission coefficient AVO analysis anisotropy VTI medium HTI medium

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Increase in the variability of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to enhanced future ENSO modulation

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 32-38页

作者： Younong Li Li Dan Jing Peng Qidong Yang Fuqiang Yang Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Key Laboratory of atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region Department of Atmospheric ScienceYunnan UniversityKunmingChina

El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air *** the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further *** investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 *** results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the *** higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in *** flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through *** occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.

关键词： Carbon variability ENSO modulation CMIP6 models

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