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Advances in climate Change research 2015年第3期6卷 159-170页

作者： ZHANG Peng Deliang CHEN Hans W.LINDERHOLM ZHANG Qiong Regional climate Group Department of Earth Sciences University of Gothenburg Bert bolin Centre for climate research Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology Stockholm University

Tree-ring based temperature reconstructions have successfully inferred the past inter-annual to millennium scales summer temperature variability. A clear relationship between annual and summer temperatures can provide insights into tile variability of past annual mean tem- perature from the reconstructed summer temperature. However, how similar are summer and annual temperatures is to a large extent still unknown. This study aims at investigating the relationship between annual and summer temperatures at different timescales in central Sweden during the last millennium. The temperature variability in central Sweden can represent large parts of Scandinavia which has been a key region for dendroclimatological research. The observed annual and summer temperatures during 1901-2005 were firstly decomposed into different frequency bands using ensemble empirical mode decomposition （EEMD） method, and then the scale-dependent relationship was quantified using Pearson correlation coefficients. The relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures determined by the instrumental data was subsequently used to evaluate 7 climate models. The model with the best performance was used to infer the relationship for the last millennium. The results show that the relationship between the observed annual and summer temperatures becomes stronger as the timescale increases, except for the 4--16 years timescales at which it does not show any relationship. The summer temperature variability at short timescales （2--4 years） shows much higher variance than the annual variability, while the annual temperature variability at long timescales （〉32 years） has a much higher variance than the summer one. During the last millennium, the simulated summer temperature also shows higher variance at the short timescales （2-4 years） and lower variance at the long timescales （〉1024 years） than those of the annual temperature. The relationship between the two temperatures is generally close at

关键词： Annual temperature Summer temperature Central Sweden climate model simulation Scale-dependent similarity

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Fundamental Characteristics of Tropical Rain Cell Structures as Measured by TRMM PR

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Journal of Meteorological research 2020年第6期34卷 1129-1150页

作者： Yunfei FU Yilun CHEN Xiangdong ZHANG Yu WANG Rui LI Qi LIU Lei ZHONG Qiong ZHANG Aoqi ZHANG School of Earth and Space Sciences University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China International Arctic research center and department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Alaska FairbanksFairbanksAK 99775USA department of physical geography and bolin center for climate research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden

Rain cells are the most elementary unit of precipitation system in *** this study,fundamental geometric and physical characteristics of rain cells over tropical land and ocean areas are investigated by using 15-yr measurements of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Precipitation Radar(PR).The rain cells are identified with a minimum bounding rectangle(MBR)*** results indicate that about 50%of rain cells occur at length of about 20 km and width of 15 *** proportion of rain cells with length>200 km and width>100 km is less than1%.There is a a log-linear relationship between the mean length and width of rain ***,for the same horizontal geometric parameters,rain cells tend to be square horizontally and lanky vertically over land,while vertically squatty over *** rainfall intensity of rain cells varies from 0.4 to 10 mm h-1 over land to 0.4–8 mm h-1 over *** results indicate that the occurrence frequency of rain cells decreases as the areal fraction of convective precipitation in rain cells increases,while such frequency remains almost invariant when the areal fraction of stratiform precipitation varies from 10%to 80%.The relationship between physical and geometric parameters of rain cells shows that the mean rain rate of rain cells is more frequently associated with the increase of their area,with the increasing rate over land greater than that over *** results also illustrate that heavy convective rain rate prefers to occur in larger rain cells over land while heavy stratiform rain rate tends to appear in larger rain cells over *** the same size of rain cells,the areal fraction and the contribution of convective precipitation are about10%–15%higher over land than over ocean.

关键词： rain cell occurrence frequency geometric parameters physical parameters Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission(TRMM)Precipitation Radar(PR)

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Sediment transport in headwaters of a volcanic catchment Kamchatka Peninsula case study

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2017年第3期11卷 565-578页

作者： Sergey R. CHALOV Anatolii S. TSYPLENKOV Jan PIETRON Aleksandra S. CHALOVA Danila I. SHKOLNYI Jerker JARSJO Michael MAERKER Faculty of geography M. V. Lomonosov Moscow State University Moscow 119911 Russia department of physical geography and the bolin Centre for climate research Stockholm University Stockholm 10691 Sweden department of Earth and Environmental Sciences Pavia University Pavia 27100 Italy

Due to specific environmental conditions, headwater catchments located on volcanic slopes and valleys are characterized by distinctive hydrology and sediment transport patterns. However, lack of sufficient monitoring causes that the governing processes and patterns in these areas are rarely well understood. In this study, spatiotemporal water discharge and sediment transport from upstream sources was investigated in one of the numerous headwater catchments located in the lahar valleys of the Kamchatka Peninsula Sukhaya Elizovskaya River near Avachinskii and Koryakskii volcanoes. Three different subcatchments and corresponding channel types （wandering rivers within lahar valleys, mountain rivers within volcanic slopes and rivers within submountain terrains） were identified in the studied area. Our measure- ments from different periods of observations between years 2012-2014 showed that the studied catchment was characterized by extreme diurnal fluctuation of water discharges and sediment loads that were influenced by snowmelt patterns and high infiltration rates of the easily erodible lahar deposits. The highest recorded sediment loads were up to 9-104 mg/L which was related to an increase of two orders of magnitude within a one day of observations. Additionally, to get a quantitative estimate of the spatial distribution of the eroded material in the volcanic substrates we applied an empirical soil erosion and sediment yield model - modified universal soil loss equation （MUSLE）. The modeling results showed that even if the applications of the universal erosion model to different non-agricultural areas （e.g., volcanic catchments） can lead to irrelevant results, the MUSLE model delivered might be acceptable for non-lahar areas of the studied volcanic catchment. Overall the results of our studyincrease our understanding of the hydrology and asso- ciated sediment transport for prediction of risk manage- ment within headwater volcanic catchments.

关键词： sediment transport volcanoes lahars Kam-chatka Peninsula MUSLE erosion

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Origin of the spatial consistency of summer precipitation variability between the Mongolian Plateau and the mid-latitude East Asian summer monsoon region

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Science China Earth Sciences 2020年第8期63卷 1199-1208页

作者： Jie CHEN Wei HUANG Qiong ZHANG Song FENG Key Laboratory of Western China s Environmental Systems(Ministry of Education) College of Earth and Environmental SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China department of physical geography and bolin Centre for climate research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden department of Geosciences University of ArkansasFayetteville 72701USA

The Mongolian Plateau(MP) is located in the eastern part of arid Central Asia(ACA). Climatically, much of the MP is dominated by the westerly circulation and has an arid and semi-arid climate;however, the eastern part of the MP is also influenced by the East Asian summer monsoon(EASM) and has a humid and semi-humid climate. Several studies have shown that precipitation variability in the MP differs from that in western ACA but is consistent with that in the EASM region. Here we use monthly precipitation data for 1979–2016 to characterize and determine the origin of the summer precipitation variability of the MP and the EASM region. The results show that the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region exhibit a consistent pattern of precipitation variability on interannual and decadal timescales;specifically, the consistent regions are the MP and North and Northeast China. We further investigated the physical mechanisms responsible for the consistent interdecadal precipitation variability between the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region, and found that the mid-latitude wave train over Eurasia, with positive(negative) geopotential height anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative(positive) geopotential height anomalies over Europe and the MP, is the key factor responsible for the consistency of precipitation variability in the MP and the mid-latitude EASM region. The positive anomalies over the North Atlantic and ACA and negative anomalies over Europe and the MP would enhance the transport of westerly and monsoon moisture to the MP and North and Northeast China. They could also strengthen the Northeast Asian low, enhance the EASM, and trigger the anomalous ascending motion over the MP which promotes precipitation in the MP and in the mid-latitude EASM region. Overall, our results help explain the spatial variations of paleo-precipitation/humidity reconstructions in East Asia and clarify the reasons for the consistency of the regional climate.

关键词： Mongolian Plateau Mid-latitude EASM region Summer precipitation Decadal Consistent variability

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Understanding Interannual Variations of the Local Rainy Season over the Southwest Indian Ocean

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2021年第11期38卷 1852-1862页

作者： Hanying LI Peng HU Qiong ZHANG Ashish SINHA Hai CHENG Institute of Global Environmental Change Xi'an Jiaotong UniversityXi'an 710054China center for Monsoon ystem research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China department of physical geography and bolin Centre for climate research Stockholm UniversityStockholm SE 10691Sweden department of Earth Science California State UniversityDominguez HillsCarson CA 90747USA department of Earth Sciences University of MinnesotaMinneapolis MN 55455USA

Located at the southern boundary of the tropical rainfall belt within the South Africa monsoon regime,Rodrigues Island,~2500 km east of East Africa,is ideally located to investigate climatic changes over the southwest Indian Ocean(SWIO).In this study,we investigate the climatic controls of its modern interannual rainfall variability in terms of teleconnection and local *** find that increased rainfall over the SWIO tends to occur in association with anomalously warm(cold)SSTs over the equatorial central Pacific(Maritime Continent),resembling the central Pacific El Niño,closely linked with the Victoria mode in the North *** analyses show that the low-level convergence induced by warm SST over the equatorial central Pacific leads to anomalous low-level divergence over the Maritime Continent and convergence over a large area surrounding the Rodrigues Island,which leads to increased rainfall over the SWIO during the rainy ***,the excited Rossby wave along the tropical Indian Ocean transports more water vapor from the tropical convergence zone into the SWIO via intensified northwest ***,positive feedback induced by the Rossby wave response to the increased rainfall in the region contributes to the large interannual variations over the SWIO.

关键词： southwest Indian Ocean interannual rainfall variability Pacific Walker Circulation Rossby wave positive feedback

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GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping using numerical risk factor bivariate model and its ensemble with linear multivariate regression and boosted regression tree algorithms

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Journal of Mountain Science 2019年第3期16卷 595-618页

作者： Alireza ARABAMERI Biswajeet PRADHAN Khalil REZAE Masoud SOHRABI Zahra KALANTARI department of Geomorphology Tarbiat Modares University Centre for Advanced Modelling and Geospatial Information Systems (CAMGIS) Faculty of Engineering and ITUniversity of Technology Sydney department of Energy and Mineral Resources Engineering Choongmu-gwanSejong University Faculty of Earth Sciences Kharazmi University department of Civil Engineering- geotechnics Islamic Azad university of Urmia Stockholm University Department of Physical Geography and Bolin Centre for Climate Research

In this study, a novel approach of the landslide numerical risk factor(LNRF) bivariate model was used in ensemble with linear multivariate regression(LMR) and boosted regression tree(BRT) models, coupled with radar remote sensing data and geographic information system(GIS), for landslide susceptibility mapping(LSM) in the Gorganroud watershed, Iran. Fifteen topographic, hydrological, geological and environmental conditioning factors and a landslide inventory(70%, or 298 landslides) were used in mapping. Phased array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar data were used to extract topographic parameters. Coefficients of tolerance and variance inflation factor were used to determine the coherence among conditioning factors. Data for the landslide inventory map were obtained from various resources, such as Iranian Landslide Working Party(ILWP), Forestry, Rangeland and Watershed Organisation(FRWO), extensive field surveys, interpretation of aerial photos and satellite images, and radar data. Of the total data, 30% were used to validate LSMs, using area under the curve(AUC), frequency ratio(FR) and seed cell area index(SCAI).Normalised difference vegetation index, land use/land cover and slope degree in BRT model elevation, rainfall and distance from stream were found to be important factors and were given the highest weightage in modelling. Validation results using AUC showed that the ensemble LNRF-BRT and LNRFLMR models(AUC = 0.912(91.2%) and 0.907(90.7%), respectively) had high predictive accuracy than the LNRF model alone(AUC = 0.855(85.5%)). The FR and SCAI analyses showed that all models divided the parameter classes with high precision. Overall, our novel approach of combining multivariate and machine learning methods with bivariate models, radar remote sensing data and GIS proved to be a powerful tool for landslide susceptibility mapping.

关键词： Landslide susceptibility GIS Remote sensing Bivariate model Multivariate model Machine learning model

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Response of North Pacific and North Atlantic decadal variability to weak global warming

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Advances in climate Change research 2018年第2期9卷 95-101页

作者： WU Sheng LIU Zheng-Yu CHENG Jun LI Chun Laboratory for climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies (LaCOAS) and department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of Physics Peking University Beijing 100871 China Atmospheric Science Program Department of Geography Ohio State University Columbus 43210 USA Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Chenge (ILCEC) Climate Dynamics Research Center Nunjing University of Information Science and Technology Nunjing 210044 China physical Oceanography Lab Ocean University of China Qingdao 266100 China

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation （PDO） and the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability （AMV） are the two dominant low-frequency modes in the climate system. This research focused on the response of these two modes under weak global warming. Observational data were derived from the Hadley center Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature dataset （HadISST） and coupled model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5）. Changes in PDO and AMV were examined using four models （bcc-csml-1, CCSM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MPI- ESM-LR） with long weak global warming scenarios （RCP2.6）. These models captured the two low-frequency modes in both pre-industrial run and RCP2.6 run. Under weak global warming, the time scales of PDO and AMV significantly decreased while the amplitude only slightly decreased. Interestingly, the standard deviation of the North Pacific sea surface temperature anomaly （SSTA） decreased only in decadal time scale, and that of the North Atlantic SSTA decreased both in interannual and decadal time scales. The coupled system consists of a slow ocean component, which has a decadal time scale, and a fast atmospheric component, which is calculated by subtracting the decadal from the total. Results suggest that under global warming, PDO change is dominated by ocean dynamics, and AMV change is dominated by ocean dynamics and stochastic atmosphere forcing.

关键词： Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal variability RCP2.6

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Urban green spaces accessibility in two European cities:Vilnius(Lithuania)and Coimbra(Portugal)

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geography and Sustainability 2022年第1期3卷 74-84页

作者： Luís Valença Pinto Carla Sofia Santos Ferreira Miguel Inácio Paulo Pereira research Centre for Natural Resources Environment and Society(CERNAS)Polytechnic Institute of CoimbraCoimbra Agrarian Technical SchoolCoimbraPortugal Environmental Management Laboratory Mykolas Romeris UniversityVilniusLithuania department of physical geography and bolin Centre for climate research Stockholm UniversitySE-10691 StockholmSweden Navarino Environmental Observatory 24001 MessiniaGreece

Urban green spaces(UGS)are essential for human well-being,contributing towards quality of life and promoting social interactions and *** to recreational UGS is key to human well-being in urban ***,there is a lack of works focused on recreational UGS accessibility in cities from different countries,using different types of *** this work,we studied the accessibility to recreational UGS in Vilnius(Lithuania)and Coimbra(Portugal)through four transport modes(foot,bike,bus and car)within 5-and 10-minute *** results showed important differences between *** had higher accessibility to recreational UGS than Coimbra in all transport *** both cities,the accessibility was highest by car and lowest by ***,the percentage of population covered by 5-and 10-minute distance UGS accessibility in Vilnius is higher than in Coimbra,despite the lower population density in Vilnius.A large number of recreational UGS,their geographic distribution,the dispersed population pattern,and the location of several urbanizations near recreational UGS increased the inhabitant’s accessibility to recreational UGS in *** differences in accessibility between cities were mainly attributed to the large number of recreational UGS and higher road network density,cycleways and footways density,and bus lines in Vilnius,compared to *** work identified the areas where recreational UGS accessibility is difficult in using different transport modes and need to be improved in study *** is essential to support urban planners and increase cities’*** findings of this work will be important for the management of the studied urban areas.

关键词： Recreational UGS Accessibility Transport modes Urban planning Well-being

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末次间冰期127 ka时期植被反馈增强东亚夏季风降水的数值模拟研究

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第四纪研究 2020年第6期40卷 1499-1512页

作者：张琼陈婕 department of physical geography and bolin Centre for climate research Stockholm UniversityStockholm 10691Sweden 兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室甘肃兰州730000

黄土和石笋等古气候代用资料表明在末次间冰期间,东亚夏季风增强、降水增多。本研究利用地球系统模式EC-Earth模拟了末次间冰期127 ka时期的气候,通过和工业革命前的气候模拟控制试验做比对,分析了127 ka时期由于地球轨道参数变化导致... 详细信息

黄土和石笋等古气候代用资料表明在末次间冰期间,东亚夏季风增强、降水增多。本研究利用地球系统模式EC-Earth模拟了末次间冰期127 ka时期的气候,通过和工业革命前的气候模拟控制试验做比对,分析了127 ka时期由于地球轨道参数变化导致的东亚夏季风的空间变化特征。我们利用了两种EC-Earth的模式配置,即"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰"耦合模式和"大气-陆面-海洋-海冰-动态植被"耦合模式,分别估算轨道强迫和植被反馈对东亚夏季风降水变化的贡献。数值模拟结果表明,地球轨道强迫导致的海陆热力差异使得东亚夏季风系统显著增强并北移西伸,中国中部及华北地区降水增多而东部沿海地区降水减少。耦合了动态植被模式的试验结果表明,127 ka时期温暖湿润的气候致使东亚地区植被增多,植被的蒸腾作用使得地表的感热和潜热通量显著增大,从而增强了局地水循环,使降水进一步增多。植被的反馈作用在原本温暖湿润的华南地区对降水的影响并不显著,但是对相对干旱的我国中部和华北地区降水有显著影响。数值试验结果表明轨道强迫和植被反馈的共同作用能使内陆的四川盆地到华北一带夏季降水增加约40%,其中30%的增加是由于轨道强迫作用,约10%是由于植被反馈。这个研究也提醒我们,要得到更加合理的对过去或未来气候变化的模拟结果,有必要使用耦合动态植被的气候系统模式。

关键词：末次间冰期 127 ka 东亚夏季风降水气候模拟轨道强迫植被反馈

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climate and litter C/N ratio constrain soil organic carbon accumulation

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National Science Review 2019年第4期6卷 746-757页

作者： Guoyi Zhou Shan Xu Philippe Ciais Stefano Manzoni Jingyun Fang Guirui Yu Xuli Tang Ping Zhou Wantong Wang Junhua Yan Gengxu Wang Keping Ma Shenggong Li Sheng Du Shijie Han Youxin Ma Deqiang Zhang Juxiu Liu Shizhong Liu Guowei Chu Qianmei Zhang Yuelin Li Wenjuan Huang Hai Ren Xiankai Lu Xiuzhi Chen South China Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Ecology Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Institut Pierre Simon Laplace Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement CEA CNRS UVSQ UPSaclay department of physical geography Stockholm University bolin Centre for climate research Institute of Botany Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of Sciences Guangzhou Institute of geography Guangdong Academy of Sciences College of Tourism Henan Normal University Institute of Mountain Hazards and Environment Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Soil and Water Conservation Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Applied Ecology Chinese Academy of Sciences Xishuangbanna Tropical Botanical Garden Chinese Academy of Sciences

Soil organic carbon(SOC) plays critical roles in stabilizing atmospheric CO2concentration, but the mechanistic controls on the amount and distribution of SOC on global scales are not well understood. In turn, this has hampered the ability to model global C budgets and to find measures to mitigate climate change. Here, based on the data from a large field survey campaign with 2600 plots across China’s forest ecosystems and a global collection of published data from forested land, we find that a low litter carbon-to-nitrogen ratio(C/N) and high wetness index(P/PET, precipitation-to-potentialevapotranspiration ratio) are the two factors that promote SOC accumulation, with only minor contributions of litter quantity and soil texture. The field survey data demonstrated that high plant diversity decreased litter C/N and thus indirectly promoted SOC accumulation by increasing the litter quality. We conclude that any changes in plant-community composition, plant-species richness and environmental factors that can reduce the litter C/N ratio, or climatic changes that increase wetness index, may promote SOC accumulation. The study provides a guideline for modeling the carbon cycle of various ecosystem scales and formulates the principle for land-based actions for mitigating the rising atmospheric CO2concentration.

关键词： litter carbon-to-nitrogen wetness index annual litterfall soil texture soil organic carbon

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