In this paper, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based classifier is described to tell whether precipitation events will happen on a certain day at a certain time from historical meteorological data. The classifier deals...
详细信息
In this paper, a Gaussian mixture model (GMM) based classifier is described to tell whether precipitation events will happen on a certain day at a certain time from historical meteorological data. The classifier deals with a two-class classification problem where one class represents precipitation events and the other represents non-precipitation events. The concept of ambiguity is introduced to represent cases where weather conditions between the two classes like drizzles, intermittent or overcast are more likely to happen. Six groups of experiments are carried out to evaluate the performance of the classifier using different configurations based on the observation data released by Shanghai Baoshan weather station. Specifically, a typical classification performance of about 75% accuracy, 30% precision and 80% recall is achieved for prediction tasks with a time span of 12 hours.
云滴谱宽度对模式中云的光学厚度的参数化、气溶胶间接效应的评估以及降水形成过程的研究至关重要。本文利用美国POST(Physics of Stratocumulus Top)项目2008年7月19日的飞机观测资料,分析了微物理量和云滴谱的垂直分布及微物理过程。...
详细信息
云滴谱宽度对模式中云的光学厚度的参数化、气溶胶间接效应的评估以及降水形成过程的研究至关重要。本文利用美国POST(Physics of Stratocumulus Top)项目2008年7月19日的飞机观测资料,分析了微物理量和云滴谱的垂直分布及微物理过程。结果表明,该云系云滴谱宽度在云底附近较大,这是由低层核化过程导致的;中层凝结增长过程使得云滴谱宽度随高度增加逐渐减小;云顶附近夹卷混合过程导致云滴谱宽度增大。绝热云中垂直速度的增大会促进云凝结核的活化使云滴数浓度增大,促进凝结增长使云滴尺度增大、云滴谱宽度减小,云滴谱宽度与云滴数浓度、云滴尺度呈现负相关关系;云洞中受夹卷混合过程影响,垂直速度减小,云滴蒸发,云滴数浓度和云滴尺度减小、云滴谱宽度增大,且该效应随绝热程度减小而增强。建议云滴谱宽度的参数化将垂直速度、云滴数浓度、云滴尺度和绝热程度等考虑在内。
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