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Seismic Risk Model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Region, China:Considering Epistemic Uncertainty from the Seismic Hazard Models

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第3期15卷 434-452页

作者： Jian Ma Katsuichiro Goda Kai Liu Silva Vitor Anirudh Rao Ming Wang Key Laboratory of Earthquake Engineering and Engineering Vibration Institute of Engineering MechanicsChina Earthquake Administration Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Mitigation Ministry of Emergency Management School of National Safety and Emergency Management Beijing Normal University Shenzhen Key Laboratory of Urban disasters Digital Twin department of Earth Sciences Western University Global Earthquake Model Foundation

This study presents a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China. The model comprises a township-level residential building exposure model, a vulnerability model derived from the Chinese building taxonomy,and a regional probabilistic seismic hazard model. The three components are integrated by a stochastic event-based method of the OpenQuake engine to assess the regional seismic risk in terms of average annual loss and exceedance probability curve at the city, province, and regional levels. The novelty and uniqueness of this study are that a probabilistic seismic risk model for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region in China is developed by considering the impact of site conditions and epistemic uncertainty from the seismic hazard model.

关键词： Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region Epistemic uncertainty Seismic risk assessment Seismic risk model

Anthropogenic Influence on Decadal Changes in Concurrent Hot and Dry Events over China around the Mid-1990s

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 233-246页

作者： Qin SU Buwen DONG Fangxing TIAN Nicholas P.KLINGAMAN Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological disasters and Climate Resources in the Great Mekong Subregion Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China department of Atmospheric Sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China National Centre for Atmospheric Science Department of MeteorologyUniversity of ReadingReadingRG66BBUK Geofysisk Institut University of BergenBergen 5007Norway Citadel Investment Group Moor House120 London WallLondonRG66BBUK

The frequency and duration of observed concurrent hot and dry events(HDEs) over China during the growing season(April–September) exhibit significant decadal changes across the mid-1990s. These changes are characterized by increases in HDE frequency and duration over most of China, with relatively large increases over southeastern China(SEC), northern China(NC), and northeastern China(NEC). The frequency of HDEs averaged over China in the present day(PD,1994–2011) is double that in the early period(EP, 1964–81);the duration of HDEs increases by 60%. Climate experiments with the Met Office Unified Model(MetUM-GOML2) are used to estimate the contributions of anthropogenic forcing to HDE decadal changes over China. Anthropogenic forcing changes can explain 60%–70% of the observed decadal changes,suggesting an important anthropogenic influence on HDE changes over China across the mid-1990s. Single-forcing experiments indicate that the increase in greenhouse gas(GHG) concentrations dominates the simulated decadal changes,increasing the frequency and duration of HDEs throughout China. The change in anthropogenic aerosol(AA) emissions significantly decreases the frequency and duration of HDEs over SEC and NC, but the magnitude of the decrease is much smaller than the increase induced by GHGs. The changes in HDEs in response to anthropogenic forcing are mainly due to the response of climatological mean surface air temperatures. The contributions from changes in variability and changes in climatological mean soil moisture and evapotranspiration are relatively small. The physical processes associated with the response of HDEs to GHG and AA changes are also revealed.

关键词： concurrent hot and dry events decadal variation greenhouse gases aerosol emissions

Improvement of cloud microphysical parameterization and its advantages in simulating precipitation along the Sichuan-Xizang Railway

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 856-873页

作者： Xiaoqi XU Zhiwei HENG Yueqing LI Shunjiu WANG Jian LI Yuan WANG Jinghua CHEN Peiwen ZHANG Chunsong LU China Meteorological Administration Transportation Meteorology Key Laboratory Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric SciencesNanjing 210041China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Institute of Plateau MeteorologyCMAChengdu 610072China State Key Laboratory of Disaster Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China China Meteorological Administration Aerosol-Cloud and Precipitation Key Laboratory and Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

The Sichuan-Xizang Railway is an important part of the railway network in China, and geological disasters, such as mountain floods and landslides, frequently occur in this region. Precipitation is an important cause of these disasters;therefore,accurate simulation of the precipitation in this region is highly important. In this study, the descriptions for uncertain processes in the cloud microphysics scheme are improved;these processes include cloud droplet activation, cloud-rain autoconversion, rain accretion by cloud droplets, and the entrainment-mixing process. In the default scheme, the cloud water content of different sizes corresponds to the same cloud droplet concentration, which is inconsistent with the actual content;this results in excessive cloud droplet size, unreasonable related conversion rates of microphysical process(such as cloud-rain autoconversion), and an overestimation of precipitation. Our new scheme overcomes the problem of excessive cloud droplet size. The processes of cloudrain autoconversion and rain accretion by cloud droplets are similar to the stochastic collection equation, and the mixing mechanism of cloud droplets is more consistent with that occurred during the actual physical process in the cloud. Based on the new and old schemes, multiple precipitation processes in the flood season of 2021 along the Sichuan-Xizang Railway are simulated, and the results are evaluated using ground observations and satellite data. Compared to the default scheme, the new scheme is more suitable for the simulation of cloud physics, reducing the simulation deviation of the liquid water path and droplet radius from 2 times to less than 1 time and significantly alleviating the overestimation of precipitation intensity and range of precipitation center. The average root-mean-square error is reduced by 22%. Our results can provide a scientific reference for improving precipitation forecasting and disaster prevention in this region.

关键词： The Sichuan-Xizang Railway Cloud microphysics Precipitation Model improvement

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Prioritizing Strategies for Building the Resilience of Public health Systems to disasters Across Multiple Communities and Countries

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 1-17页

作者： Benjamin J.Ryan Mayumi Kako Shelby Garner Rok Fink Ismail Tayfur Jonathan Abrahams Sanjaya Bhatia Adriana Campelo Matthew Fendt Alicia Fontenot Nahuel Arenas Garcia Tim Hatch Ryoma Kayano LaShonda Malrey‑Horne Makiko MacDermot Md Moshiur Rahman Chaverle Noel Shuhei Nomura Jeremy P.Novak Maria Opazo Kendell Oliver Luciana Peters Sohel Rahman PerihanŞimşek Andrew Stricklin Raymond Swienton Bryan W.Brooks Frist College of Medicine Belmont UniversityNashvilleTN 37212USA department of Environmental Science Environmental Health Science ProgramCollege of Arts and SciencesBaylor UniversityWacoTX 76798USA Division of Nursing Science School of Biomedical and Health SciencesHiroshima UniversityHiroshima 734-8553Japan Gordon E.Inman College of health Sciences and Nursing Belmont UniversityNashvilleTN 37212USA Faculty of health Sciences University of Ljubljana1000 LjubljanaSlovenia department of Emergency Medicine University of Health Sciences34668 IstanbulTurkey Monash University Accident Research Center MelbourneVIC 3800Australia Global Education and Training Institute United Nations Ofce for Disaster Risk ReductionIncheon 22004Republic of Korea Regional Ofce for the Americas and Caribbean United Nations Ofce for Disaster Risk ReductionPanama City 0843-03441Panama Engineering and Computer Science Baylor UniversityWacoTX 76798USA department of Public health Robbins College of Health and Human SciencesBaylor UniversityWacoTX 76798USA Alabama department of Public health MontgomeryAL 36092USA World health Organization Centre for health Development(WHO Kobe Centre) Kobe 651-0073Japan Waco-McLennan County Public health District WacoTX 76707USA department of health Policy and Management School of MedicineKeio UniversityTokyo 160-8582Japan department of Global health Policy Graduate School of MedicineThe University of TokyoTokyo 113-0033Japan Tokyo Foundation for Policy Research Tokyo 106-6234Japan Global Development College BrisbaneQLD 4000Australia Municipality of Pudahuel 13124 PudahuelChile City Hall of Porto Alegre Porto Alegre 90010-170Brazil Ministry of health and Family Welfare Government of the People’s Republic of BangladeshDhaka 1000Bangladesh department of Emergency Aid and Disaster Management Trabzon University61335 TrabzonTurkey department of Emergency Medicine UT SouthwesternDallasTX 75390USA

The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the urgent need to strengthen public health *** response,the United Nations Disaster Risk Reduction(UNDRR) Public health System Resilience Scorecard(Scorecard) was applied in workshops across multiple *** aim of our research was to explore the workshop findings to develop priority strategies for strengthening public health system *** conducted a workshop from 14 to 16 March 2023,at the UNDRR Global Education and Training Institute in Incheon,Republic of Korea.A sequential modified Delphi method was utilized to develop a set of prioritized resilience *** were drawn from 70 strategies identified from 13 distinct workshops in eight *** two surveys,23 strategies were *** received ratings of "High" or Very High" from89% of *** related to the inclusion of public health risks in emergency plans,integrating multidisciplinary teams into public health,enabling local transport mechanisms,and improving the ability to manage an influx of *** Scorecard provides an adaptable framework to identify and prioritize strategies for strengthening public health system *** leveraging this methodology,our study demonstrated how resilience strategies could inform disaster risk reduction funding,policies,and actions.

关键词： health system resilience Public policy Resilience scorecard Workshops

Predictability of the 7·20 extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou in stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter ensembles

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2226-2241页

作者： Min YANG Peilong YU Lifeng ZHANG Xiaobing PAN Quanjia ZHONG Yunying LI College of Meteorology and Oceanography National University of Defense TechnologyChangsha 410073China Key Laboratory of High Impact Weather(Special) China Meteorological AdministrationChangsha 410073China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological disasters/Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China department of Ocean Science Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong Kong 999077China

The scale-dependent predictability of the devastating 7·20 extreme rainstorm in Zhengzhou,China in 2021 was investigated via ensemble experiments,which were perturbed on different scales using the stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter(SKEB)scheme in the WRF model,with the innermost domain having a 3-km grid *** daily rainfall(RAIN24h)and the cloudburst during 1600-1700 LST(RAIN1h)were *** demonstrated that with larger perturbation scales,the ensemble spread for the rainfall maximum widens and rainfall forecasts become closer to the *** ensembles with mesoscale or convective-scale perturbations,RAIN1h loses predictability at scales smaller than 20 km and RAIN24h is predictable for all *** in ensembles with synoptic-scale perturbations,the largest scale of predictability loss extends to 60 km for both RAIN1h and ***,the average positional error in forecasting the heaviest rainfall for RAIN24h(RAIN1h)was 400 km(50-60)*** southerly low-level jet near Zhengzhou was assumed to be directly responsible for the forecast uncertainty of *** rapid intensification in low-level cyclonic vorticity,mid-level divergence,and upward motion concomitant with the jet dynamically facilitated the *** analysis of the divergent,rotational and vertical kinetic spectra and the corresponding error spectra showed that the error kinetic energy at smaller scales grows faster than that at larger scales and saturates more quickly in all ***-scale perturbations not only boost larger-scale error growth but are also conducive to error growth at all scales through a downscale cascade,which indicates that improving the accuracy of larger-scale flow forecast may discernibly contributes to the forecast of cloudburst intensity and position.

关键词： Stochastic kinetic-energy backscatter(SKEB) Extreme rainfall Ensemble forecast Predictability

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Assessing the Performance of CMIP6 Models in Simulating Droughts across Global Drylands

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第2期41卷 193-208页

作者： Xiaojing YU Lixia ZHANG Tianjun ZHOU Jianghua ZHENG LASG Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China College of Geography&Remote Sensing Sciences Xinjiang UniversityUrumqi 830046China

Both the attribution of historical change and future projections of droughts rely heavily on climate modeling. However,reasonable drought simulations have remained a challenge, and the related performances of the current state-of-the-art Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6(CMIP6) models remain unknown. Here, both the strengths and weaknesses of CMIP6 models in simulating droughts and corresponding hydrothermal conditions in drylands are *** the general patterns of simulated meteorological elements in drylands resemble the observations, the annual precipitation is overestimated by ~33%(with a model spread of 2.3%–77.2%), along with an underestimation of potential evapotranspiration(PET) by ~32%(17.5%–47.2%). The water deficit condition, measured by the difference between precipitation and PET, is 50%(29.1%–71.7%) weaker than observations. The CMIP6 models show weaknesses in capturing the climate mean drought characteristics in drylands, particularly with the occurrence and duration largely underestimated in the hyperarid Afro-Asian areas. Nonetheless, the drought-associated meteorological anomalies, including reduced precipitation, warmer temperatures, higher evaporative demand, and increased water deficit conditions, are reasonably reproduced. The simulated magnitude of precipitation(water deficit) associated with dryland droughts is overestimated by 28%(24%) compared to observations. The observed increasing trends in drought fractional area,occurrence, and corresponding meteorological anomalies during 1980–2014 are reasonably reproduced. Still, the increase in drought characteristics, associated precipitation and water deficit are obviously underestimated after the late 1990s,especially for mild and moderate droughts, indicative of a weaker response of dryland drought changes to global warming in CMIP6 models. Our results suggest that it is imperative to employ bias correction approaches in drought-related studies over drylands by using CMIP6 o

关键词： droughts hydrothermal conditions drylands CMIP6 model evaluation

The Probability Density Function Related to Shallow Cumulus Entrainment Rate and Its Influencing Factors in a Large-Eddy Simulation

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 173-187页

作者： Lei ZHU Chunsong LU Xiaoqi XU Xin HE Junjun LI Shi LUO Yuan WANG Fan WANG Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological disasters(CIC-FEMD)and Key Laboratory for Aerosol-Cloud-Precipitation of China Meteorological Administration Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nanjing Joint Institute for Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing 210019China College of Aviation Meteorology Civil Aviation Flight University of ChinaGuanghan 618307China Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China department of Geography Hong Kong Baptist UniversityHong Kong SAR 999077China

The process of entrainment-mixing between cumulus clouds and the ambient air is important for the development of cumulus *** obtaining the entrainment rate(λ)is particularly important for its parameterization within the overall cumulus parameterization *** this study,an improved bulk-plume method is proposed by solving the equations of two conserved variables simultaneously to calculateλof cumulus clouds in a large-eddy *** results demonstrate that the improved bulk-plume method is more reliable than the traditional bulk-plume method,becauseλ,as calculated from the improved method,falls within the range ofλvalues obtained from the traditional method using different conserved *** probability density functions ofλfor all data,different times,and different heights can be well-fitted by a log-normal distribution,which supports the assumed stochastic entrainment process in previous *** analysis demonstrate that the relationship betweenλand the vertical velocity is better than other thermodynamic/dynamical properties;thus,the vertical velocity is recommended as the primary influencing factor for the parameterization ofλin the *** results of this study enhance the theoretical understanding ofλand its influencing factors and shed new light on the development ofλparameterization.

关键词： large-eddy simulation cumulus clouds entrainment rate probability density functions spatial and temporal distribution

Understanding the factors influencing cloud-core vertical accelerations during deep convection formation in the WRF model

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 1-7页

作者： Na Li Jin Wang Lingkun Ran Lei Yin Xiba Tang Yuchen Liu Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Guizhou Meteorological Bureau GuiyangChina University of Chinese Academy of Sciences BeijingChina Nanjing University of Posts and Telecommunications NanjingChina Yunnan Key Laboratory of Meteorological disasters and Climate Resources in the Great Mekong Subregion Yunnan UniversityKunmingChina

本文将扰动气压利用一个线性诊断关系代替,重新推导了WRF模式框架地形追随坐标系下的垂直动量方程,建立了垂直加速与对流触发(DCI)影响因子(如温度,水汽等)的直接联系.研究发现,DCI过程与对流核垂直加速相关,三维副散,扰动位势在垂直方... 详细信息

本文将扰动气压利用一个线性诊断关系代替,重新推导了WRF模式框架地形追随坐标系下的垂直动量方程,建立了垂直加速与对流触发(DCI)影响因子(如温度,水汽等)的直接联系.研究发现,DCI过程与对流核垂直加速相关,三维副散,扰动位势在垂直方向的二阶非均匀性,扰动位温垂直梯度,比湿及其垂直梯度,水凝物拖曳,均是能够直接影响垂直加速和对流触发的物理因子,这些量与模式基本预报量相关,通过解析基本预报量对对流发展的直接影响,可能有助于理解模式对DCI过程预测失败的原因.

关键词：垂直加速深对流垂直速度冰雹

Sexual and Reproductive Service Interventions for Menstrual Regulation, Safe Abortion, and Post-abortion Care and Their Effectiveness During Disaster Response: A Global Systematic Review

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第3期15卷 359-373页

作者： Nibedita S.Ray-Bennett Winifred Ekezie Isha Biswas Nimra Iqbal Choudhary David Cowie Lasith Dissanayake Lauren Macleod Azukaeogo Nnaji Madhulika Sahoo School of Business University of Leicester Avoidable Deaths Network University of Leicester Diabetes Research Centre Leicester General Hospital University of Leicester School of Social Sciences and Humanities Aston University Lifespan and Population health School of Medicine University of Nottingham School of Public health and Interdisciplinary Studies Auckland University of Technology Faculty of Life Sciences and Education University of South Wales West African Regional ECHO (WARE) APIN Public Health Initiatives department of Anthropology Kalahandi University

Sexual and reproductive health(SRH) services are crucial for women especially during disasters, to reduce maternal mortality and morbidity from miscarriages, unsafe abortions, and post-abortion complications. This study explored the SRH interventions provided during disaster response. A systematic review was conducted to identify what menstrual regulation(MR), safe abortion(SA), and post-abortion care(PAC) approaches/interventions exist to promote resilience in the health system in disaster settings; what intervention components were most eff ective; and challenges and opportunities to meeting SRH rights. Five electronic databases were searched, resulting in 4194 records. Following the screening process, seven publications were included. The intervention-related information in each publication was assessed based on availability,accessibility, acceptability, and quality. Two SRH approaches/interventions were found. The eff ectiveness of intervention components could not be conducted due to the limited number of relevant studies. Challenges were found at facility and community levels, and opportunities included overcoming them, making MR, SA, and PAC integral to the mitigation phase,and policy change to overcome barriers related to unaff ordability and inaccessibility. Recommendations are provided to encourage research and policy towards improving neglected SRH in disaster settings to realize Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the Global Strategy and Sendai Framework's priority to promote disaster-resilient health systems.

关键词： Abortion disasters Sendai framework Sexual and reproductive health Sustainable development goal