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Crustal magma oxidation state and endowments in porphyry copper deposits

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年第1期68卷 226-236页

作者： Yumin AI Massimo CHIARADIA Chao WU Huayong CHEN Key Laboratory of Mineralogy and Metallogeny Guangzhou Institute of Geochemistry Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of sciences department of Earth sciences University of Geneva Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Mineral Physics and Materials

Porphyry copper deposits（PCDs） supply the majority of the world's copper（Cu） as well as significant amounts of molybdenum（Mo） and gold（Au）. The formation of these deposits is controlled by a variety of geological factors, among which the magmatic oxidation is one of the focuses of current research. This study investigates the redox characteristics of arc magmas by analyzing the ratio of vanadium（V） to scandium（Sc） and its correlation with the oxygen fugacity （fO2） of magmas from arcs of various crustal thicknesses globally. We compiled an extensive dataset of published V/Sc values and studied the partition coefficients of Vand Sc between minerals and silicate melts across various magmatic environments. The results demonstrate that fractional crystallization of magnetite markedly reduces V/Sc values of the residual melt. Furthermore, magnesium number（Mg#） at the onset of magnetite fractionation is strongly positively correlated with fO2of the equilibrium magma. Based on this,the oxidation of arc magmas from different crustal thicknesses can be evaluated. The result suggests that magmas generated in crusts thicker than 20 km tend to be more oxidized with increasing crust thickness. This trend is attributed to enhanced intracrustal differentiation processes involving garnet and amphibole, particularly in mature island and continental arcs. In contrast,magmas in thinner arc crusts（<20 km）, which are significantly influenced by subducted slab materials, display higher oxidation states than most of their thicker crust counterparts. These findings suggest that both subduction dynamics and crustal thickness play a vital role in determining the oxidation state of arc magmas and, consequently, their capacity to generate PCDs. Highly oxidized, primitive arc magmas are less favorable for PCD formation due to that they tend to experience magnetite fractionation and thus sulfide saturation in the early stage of magma evolution, a process leading to copper depletion. On the contra

关键词： Magma evolution V/Sc systematics Magnetite Oxygen fugacity Porphyry copper deposits

Rivers increasingly warmer:Prediction of changes in the thermal regime of rivers in Poland

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Journal of Geographical sciences 2025年第1期35卷 139-174页

作者： Mariusz PTAK Teerachai AMNUAYLOJAROEN Mariusz SOJKA department of Hydrology and Water Management Adam Mickiewicz University School of Energy and Environment University of Phayao atmospheric Pollution and Climate Research Unit School of Energy and Environment University of Phayao department of Land Improvement Environmental Development and Spatial Management Poznań University of Life Sciences

Emphasis on future environmental changes grows due to climate change, with simulations predicting rising river temperatures globally. For Poland, which has a long history of thermal studies of rivers, such an approach has not been implemented to date. This study used 9 Global Climate Models and tested three machine-learning techniques to predict river temperature changes. Random Forest performed best, with R2=0.88 and lowest error(RMSE:2.25, MAE:1.72). The range of future water temperature changes by the end of the 21st century was based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. It was determined that by the end of the 21st century, the average temperature will increase by 2.1°C(SSP2-4.5) and 3.7°C(SSP5-8.5). A more detailed analysis, divided by two major basins Vistula and Odra, covered about 90% of Poland's territory. The average temperature increase, according to scenarios SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 for the Odra basin rivers,is 1.6°C and 3.2°C and for the Vistula basin rivers 2.3°C and 3.8°C, respectively. The Vistula basin's higher warming is due to less groundwater input and continental climate *** findings provide a crucial basis for water management to mitigate warming effects in Poland.

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Spatiotemporal evolution of Ediacaran-Cambrian(ca. 551–523 Ma)sponges in South China and their simulated contributions to marine oxygenation

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年

作者： Yan YE Lei ZHANG Can CHEN Shan CHANG Yuhao YI Qinglai FENG State Key Laboratory of geological Processes and Mineral Resources China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) School of Earth Science China University of Geosciences(Wuhan) department of Geology Lund University Institute of Sedimentary Geology Chengdu University of Technology Key Laboratory of Deep-time Geography and Environment Reconstruction and Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources Chengdu University of Technology Second geological Brigade of Hubei geological Bureau College of Urban and Environmental sciences Hubei Normal University Exploration and Development Research Institute SINOPEC Jianghan Oilfield Company

The origin and evolution of sponges have attracted interest, not only because they are among the most basal metazoans, but also because they act as important ecological engineers in the ocean. Previous research suggested that sponge groups diversified quickly during the Cambrian Series 2, while Terreneuvian sponge fossils are conspicuously rare and poorly substantiated. Yet, an increasing number of sponge spicules have been reported from the Ediacaran-Cambrian(E-C, ca.551–523 Ma) transitional carbonates/cherts worldwide, particularly in South China, which calls for updated discussions. Ocean oxygenation has been widely proposed to play a critical role in organismal evolution, but its relationship with sponges is unclear and falls into a “chicken-egg” dilemma. In this study, we summarize reported sponge spicule distributions from five E-C sections in South China to investigate the early evolutionary pattern of siliceous sponges. According to current stratigraphic correlation,monaxons first appear in the late Ediacaran in the intrashelf basin-slope area, and then potentially expand to the continental shelf and deep basin in the lower Cambrian. In these sections, the abundance, size, and diversity of monaxons increase upwards,followed by the appearance of diaxons, triaxons and then polyactines. Despite the uncertain affinity of the sponge fossils, it is possible that siliceous hexactinellids evolved later than siliceous demosponges, given that the earliest spicule assemblages are exclusively composed of monaxons, which commonly form bundles comparable to modern demosponges. New geochemical data from the Sifangjing section, Guizhou Province and the Yanziqiao section, Hunan Province, South China show that the appearance of sponges usually corresponds to anoxic environment. In addition, we applied the recently proposed Biological Pump, Oxygen and Phosphorus(BPOP) model to trace the evolution of oceanic oxygen concentrations with the radiation of sponges. The results indic

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Enhancing weather predictions:Initial condition sensitivity and error dynamics in data assimilation

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年

作者： Weiwei FU department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences Fudan University Key Laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of Education Fudan University IRDR International Center of Excellence on Risk Interconnectivity and Governance on Weather Fudan University

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a crucial role in modern numerical forecasting (Kalnay, 2002). It has been demonstrated that incorporating real-time observational data into forecast models significantly enhances the accuracy of both shortterm weather forecasts (Bauer et al., 2015; Bannister, 2017)and long-term climate predictions (Karspeck et al., 2013;Mochizuki et al., 2016).

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Prediction of Shear Bond Strength of Asphalt Concrete Pavement Using Machine Learning Models and Grid Search Optimization Technique

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Computer Modeling in Engineering & sciences 2025年第1期142卷 691-712页

作者： Quynh-Anh Thi Bui Dam Duc Nguyen Hiep Van Le Indra Prakash Binh Thai Pham Civil Engineering department University of Transport Technology54 Trieu KhucThanh XuanHanoi100000Vietnam DDG(R)geological Survey of India Gandhinagar382010India

Determination of Shear Bond strength(SBS)at interlayer of double-layer asphalt concrete is crucial in flexible pavement *** study used three Machine Learning(ML)models,including K-Nearest Neighbors(KNN),Extra Trees(ET),and Light Gradient Boosting Machine(LGBM),to predict SBS based on easily determinable input ***,the Grid Search technique was employed for hyper-parameter tuning of the ML models,and cross-validation and learning curve analysis were used for training the *** models were built on a database of 240 experimental results and three input variables:temperature,normal pressure,and tack coat *** validation was performed using three statistical criteria:the coefficient of determination(R2),the Root Mean Square Error(RMSE),and the mean absolute error(MAE).Additionally,SHAP analysis was also used to validate the importance of the input variables in the prediction of the *** show that these models accurately predict SBS,with LGBM providing outstanding ***(Shapley Additive explanation)analysis for LGBM indicates that temperature is the most influential factor on ***,the proposed ML models can quickly and accurately predict SBS between two layers of asphalt concrete,serving practical applications in flexible pavement structure design.

关键词： Shear bond asphalt pavement grid search optimization machine learning

Paleoclimate data assimilation: Principles and prospects

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年

作者： Haoxun ZHANG Mingsong LI Yongyun HU Key Laboratory of Orogenic Belts and Crustal Evolution Ministry of Education School of Earth and Space Sciences Peking University State Key Laboratory of Shale Oil and Gas Enrichment Mechanisms and Effective Development Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences School of PhysicsPeking University Institute of Ocean Research Peking University

Reconstructing climate states during geological periods is a key focus in studying Earth system evolution. Substantial progress has been achieved in reconstructing paleoclimate and paleoenvironment using both Earth system models and paleoclimate proxies. However, current paleoclimate reconstructions face several challenges:the accuracy of Earth system model simulations relies on model parameter settings. Paleoclimate proxy data exhibit significant variability across different periods and regions, and proxy data are often sparse, hindering the accuracy and global relevance of proxy-based *** the pros and cons of these methods, paleoclimate data assimilation can effectively integrate Earth system models and paleoclimate proxy data, enhancing the precision and global relevance of reconstructions. Using approaches such as the ensemble Kalman filter as an example, this paper introduces the principles of paleoclimate data assimilation and reviews recent advancements in reconstructing paleoclimate states using these techniques. Paleoclimate data assimilation offers new insights and advanced techniques for paleoclimate reconstruction, with potential applications extending to the entire Cenozoic, Mesozoic, and even Paleozoic eras. These applications could deepen our understanding of the past climatic backgrounds of extreme climate events such as glacial-interglacial cycles, hyperthermals, and oceanic anoxic events, providing a reference for predicting future climate change.

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Increase in the variability of terrestrial carbon uptake in response to enhanced future ENSO modulation

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 32-38页

作者： Younong Li Li Dan Jing Peng Qidong Yang Fuqiang Yang Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Key Laboratory of atmospheric Environment and Processes in the Boundary Layer over the Low-Latitude Plateau Region Department of Atmospheric ScienceYunnan UniversityKunmingChina

El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)is a major driver of climate change in middle and low latitudes and thus strongly influences the terrestrial carbon cycle through land-air *** the ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability are projected to increase in the future,but their connection still needs further *** investigate the impact of future ENSO modulation on carbon flux variability,this study used 10 CMIP6 earth system models to analyze ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability in middle and low latitudes,and their relationship,under different scenarios simulated by CMIP6 *** results show a high consistency in the simulations,with both ENSO modulation and carbon flux variability showing an increasing trend in the *** higher the emissions scenario,especially SSP5-8.5 compared to SSP2-4.5,the greater the increase in *** flux variability in the middle and low latitudes under SSP2-4.5 increases by 30.9%compared to historical levels during 1951-2000,while under SSP5-8.5 it increases by 58.2%.Further analysis suggests that ENSO influences mid-and low-latitude carbon flux variability primarily through *** occurrence may potentially be attributed to the increased responsiveness of gross primary productivity towards regional temperature fluctuations,combined with the intensified influence of ENSO on land surface temperatures.

关键词： Carbon variability ENSO modulation CMIP6 models

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An improved urban cellular automata model by using the trend-adjusted neighborhood

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Ecological Processes 2020年第1期9卷 314-326页

作者： Xuecao Li Yuyu Zhou Wei Chen department of geological and atmospheric sciences Iowa State UniversityAmesIA 50011USA

Background:Cellular automata(CA)-based models have been extensively used in urban sprawl ***,most studies focused on the improvement of spatial representation in the modeling,with limited efforts for considering the temporal context of urban *** this paper,we developed a Logistic-Trend-CA model by proposing a trend-adjusted neighborhood as a weighting factor using the information of historical urban sprawl and integrating this factor in the commonly used Logistic-CA *** applied the developed model in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China and analyzed the model performance to the start year,the suitability surface,and the neighborhood ***:Our results indicate the proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model outperforms the traditional Logistic-CA model significantly,resulting in about 18%and 14%improvements in modeling urban sprawl at medium(1 km)and fine(30 m)resolutions,*** proposed Logistic-Trend-CA model is more suitable for urban sprawl modeling over a long temporal interval than the traditional Logistic-CA *** addition,this new model is not sensitive to the suitability surface calibrated from different periods and spaces,and its performance decreases with the increase of the neighborhood ***:The proposed model shows potential for modeling future urban sprawl spanning a long period at regional and global scales.

关键词： Cellular automata(CA)model Temporal context Urban sprawl Logistic regression Neighborhood

Ensembles vs. information theory: supporting science underuncertainty

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2018年第4期12卷 653-660页

作者： Grey S.NEARING Hoshin V.GUPTA University of Alabama Department of Geological SciencesTuscaloosaAL 35294-1152USA University of Arizona Department of Hydrology and Atmospheric SciencesTucsonAZ 85721-0158USA

Multi-model ensembles are one of the most common ways to deal with epistemic uncertainty in hydrology. This is a problem because there is no known way to sample models such that the resulting ensemble admits a measure that has any systematic (i.e., asymptotic, bounded, or consistent) relationship with uncertainty. Multi-model ensembles are effectively sensitivity analyses and cannot – even partially – quantify uncertainty. One consequence of this is that multi-model approaches cannot support a consistent scientific method – in particular, multi-model approaches yield unbounded errors in inference. In contrast, information theory supports a coherent hypothesis test that is robust to (i.e., bounded under) arbitrary epistemic uncertainty. This paper may be understood as advocating a procedure for hypothesis testing that does not require quantifying uncertainty, but is coherent and reliable (i.e., bounded) in the presence of arbitrary (unknown and unknowable) uncertainty. We conclude by offering some suggestions about how this proposed philosophy of science suggests new ways to conceptualize and construct simulation models of complex, dynamical systems.

关键词： information theory multi-model ensembles Bayesian methods uncertainty quantification hypothesis testing