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Constrained future brightening of solar radiation and its implication for China's solar power

National science Review 2023年第1期10卷 154-165页

作者： Yanyi He Kun Yang Martin Wild Kaicun Wang Dan Tong Changkun Shao Tianjun Zhou department of earth system science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling Institute for Global Change Studies Tsinghua University National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource Environment Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences institute for Atmospheric and Climate science ETH Zürich Sino-French institute for earth system science College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Peking University State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

As earth’s primary energy source,surface downward solar radiation(Rs) determines the solar power potential and usage for climate change *** projections of Rsbased on climate models have large uncertainties that interfere with the efficient deployment of solar energy to achieve China’ s carbon-neutrality *** we assess 24 models in the latest Coupled Model Inter comparison Project Phase 6 with historical observations in China and find systematic biases in simulating historical Rsvalues likely due to model biases in cloud cover and clear-sky radiation,resulting in largely uncertain projections for future changes in Based on emergent constraints,we obtain credible Rswith narrowed uncertainties by ～56% in the mid-twenty-first century and show that the mean Rschange during 2050-2069 relative to 1995-2014 is 30% more brightening than the raw *** in North China and Southeast China with higher power demand,the constrained projections present more significant brightening,highlighting the importance of considering the spatial changes in future Rswhen locating new solar energy infrastructures.

关键词： surface downward solar radiation CMIP6 model emergent constraint future change solar energy

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Assessment of groundwater potential using multi-criteria decision analysis and geoelectrical surveying

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Geo-Spatial Information science 2022年第4期25卷 600-618页

作者： Marzieh Shabani Zohreh Masoumi Abolfazl Rezaei department of earth sciences Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences(IASBS)ZanjanIran Center for Research in Climate change and global Warming(CRCC) Institute for Advanced Studies in Basic Sciences(IASBS)ZanjanIran

A precise map of the dispersion of the groundwater potential across each watershed can help decision-makers to exert optimal water management in each *** this research,the potential of groundwater resources in both the Zanjanrood Catchment and the Tarom Region,located in the northwest of Iran,has been *** effective criteria including slope,land-use,drainage density,spring density,lithology,lineament density,and rainfall are *** were first weighted using the Analytical Hierarchical Process(AHP)method and then overlaid by the Technique for Order Preferences by Similarity to Ideal(TOPSIS)***,the spatial zoning map of groundwater potential was obtained in four categories.A sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the influence of each criterion on the obtained *** model was verified using both the spatial distribution of the high-discharged production wells and the geophysical-based geoelectric field *** results indicate that the high-discharged wells(>40 l/s)in both regions are dispersed predominantly in the very good zone and,in several cases,in the good ***,the results from the two-dimensional models of resistivity and induced polarization of geoelectrical field survey are inappropriate agreement with those from the TOPSIS ***,there is no suitable potential zone of groundwater in the surrounding highlands to be used in the future for drinking purposes since the highlands water supply is a strategic supply for *** strategies employed in this study,the results of GIS modeling,and the geoelectrical analysis can be considered for sustainable development of similar arid and semi-arid areas since groundwater is considered as the main supplier of water in such regions.

关键词： Spatial Information system(GIS) Remote Sensing(RS) groundwater potential TOPSIS geoelectrical field survey sustainable development

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大陆岩石圈与地球深部动力过程的协同演化

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科学通报 2024年第2期69卷 200-214页

作者：刘丽军陈凌中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所岩石圈演化国家重点实验室北京100029 department of earth science and Environmental change University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignUrbana IL 61801USA 中国科学院大学地球与行星科学学院北京100049

陆地是人类最主要的栖息地,然而其下方岩石圈的性质仍存在很多未知的因素.传统的板块构造理论认为大陆漂移是受大洋板块运动所控制,大陆岩石圈与对流地幔的物质交换局限在板块边界或热点附近,而大陆内部,尤其是克拉通的构造变形主要是... 详细信息

陆地是人类最主要的栖息地,然而其下方岩石圈的性质仍存在很多未知的因素.传统的板块构造理论认为大陆漂移是受大洋板块运动所控制,大陆岩石圈与对流地幔的物质交换局限在板块边界或热点附近,而大陆内部,尤其是克拉通的构造变形主要是大陆岩石圈对深部动力过程的被动响应.该认识的一个理论基础是tectosphere模型,即大陆内部的克拉通岩石圈地幔密度小而黏度高,从而能够长期稳定存在.然而近期的研究表明,克拉通岩石圈并非如传统认为的长期保持稳定,很多克拉通都发生过不同程度的结构改变,甚至破坏.相应地,对克拉通岩石圈地幔动力学性质的认知也在发生重大转变,如发现其密度高于周围地幔并且具有分层性,而其内部也存在不同尺度的薄弱带/层,在特定的构造扰动下,克拉通岩石圈会发生失稳而形成大规模拆沉.因此,本文认为,大陆岩石圈与深部地幔在超大陆时间尺度上是协同演化的,前者可以通过拆沉和折返的形式主动参与地幔对流,进而更加深刻地影响深浅能量和物质交换.这一认识的转变表明,大陆岩石圈对深部动力过程具有主动作用,因此我们对固体地球演化、环境气候变迁等重大问题的探索需要更多地引入大陆岩石圈本身的贡献.

关键词：大陆岩石圈大洋俯冲地幔柱拆沉深浅耦合协同演化

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Impact of Revised Trigger and Closure of the Double-Plume Convective Parameterization on Precipitation Simulations over East Asia

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2023年第7期40卷 1225-1243页

作者： Xiaohan LI Yi ZHANG Yanluan LIN Xindong PENG Baiquan ZHOU Panmao ZHAI Jian LI State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China 2035 Future Laboratory PIESAT Information Technology Co Ltd.Beijing 100195China department of earth system science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China CMA earth system modeling and Prediction Center Beijing 100081China

A double-plume convective parameterization scheme is revised to improve the precipitation simulation of a global model(global-to-Regional Integrated Forecast system;GRIST).The improvement is achieved by considering the effects of large-scale dynamic processes on the trigger of deep *** closure,based on dynamic CAPE,is improved accordingly to allow other processes to consume CAPE under the more restricted convective trigger *** revised convective parameterization is evaluated with a variable-resolution model setup(110–35 km,refined over East Asia).The Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP)simulations demonstrate that the revised convective parameterization substantially delays the daytime precipitation peaks over most land areas,leading to an improved simulated diurnal cycle,evidenced by delayed and less frequent afternoon ***,changes to the threshold of the trigger function yield a small impact on the diurnal amplitude of precipitation because of the consistent setting of dCAPE-based trigger and *** simulated mean precipitation remains reasonable,with some improvements evident along the southern slopes of the Tibetan *** revised scheme increases convective precipitation at the lower levels of the windward slope and reduces the large-scale precipitation over the upper slope,ultimately shifting the rainfall peak southward,which is in better agreement with the observations.

关键词： convective parameterization diurnal cycle of precipitation East Asia variable-resolution modeling

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Precipitation recycling ratio and water vapor sources on the Tibetan Plateau

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science China earth sciences 2022年第3期65卷 584-588页

作者： Kun YANG Qiuhong TANG Hui LU department of earth system science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource EnvironmentInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Precipitation recycling ratio(i.e.,evaporation-precipitation feedback strength)and water vapor sources are two key aspects of regional water cycle,and their quantification is essential for understanding water cycle processes and their *** results of existing studies on the precipitation recycling ratio and water vapor sources for the Tibetan Plateau were highly *** article clarifies different frameworks for understanding the water *** points out that(1)the ratio of evaporation to precipitation depends mainly on climate regimes,while the precipitation recycling ratio is closely related to both the climate regimes and the scale of the region of interest,and(2)the water vapor sources depend on the traced period(precipitating or non-precipitating period)and the degree of *** the same theoretical framework,there is no fundamental conflict among the results of different studies on the water cycle in the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Regional water vapor balance Precipitation recycle Water vapor tracing Precipitating period

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Synergies of carbon neutrality, air pollution control, and health improvement - a case study of China Energy Interconnection scenario

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global Energy Interconnection 2022年第5期5卷 531-542页

作者： Jianxiang Shen Wenjia Cai Xiaotong Chen Xing Chen Zijian Zhao Zhiyuan Ma Fang Yang Shaohui Zhang department of earth system science Institute for Global Change StudiesMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModelingTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084P.R.China global Energy Interconnection Development and Cooperation Organization Xicheng DistrictBeijing 100031P.R.China School of Economics and Management Beihang UniversityBeijing 100191P.R.China International institute for Applied systems Analysis(IIASA) Schlossplatz 1A-2361 LaxenburgAustria

Climate change and air pollution are primarily caused by the combustion and utilization of fossil *** climate change and air pollution cause health *** on the development of China,it is extremely important to explore the synergies of the energy transition,CO_(2) reduction,air pollution control,and health improvement under the target of carbon peaking before 2030 and carbon neutrality before *** study introduces the policy evolution and research progress related to energy,climate change,and the environment in China and proposes a complete energy-climate-air-health mechanism *** on the MESSAGE-GLOBIOM integrated assessment model,emission inventory and chemical transport model,and exposure-response function,a comprehensive assessment method of energy-climate-air-health synergies was established and applied to quantify the impacts of Chinese Energy Interconnection Carbon Neutrality(CEICN)*** results demonstrate that,by 2060,the SO_(2),NO_(x) and PM_(2.5) emissions are estimated to be reduced by 91%,85%,and 90%respectively compared to the business-as-usual(BAU)*** direct health impacts brought by achieving the goal of carbon neutrality will drive the proactive implementation of more emission reduction measures and bring greater benefits to human health.

关键词： Energy-climate-air-health synergies Climate change Energy transition Carbon neutrality China Energy Interconnection.

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Comparison of the Anthropogenic Emission Inventory for CMIP6 Models with a Country-Level Inventory over China and the Simulations of the Aerosol Properties

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2022年第1期39卷 80-96页

作者： Tianyi FAN Xiaohong LIU Chenglai WU Qiang ZHANG Chuanfeng ZHAO Xin YANG Yanglian LI College of global change and earth system science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China department of Atmospheric sciences Texas A&M UniversityCollege StationTexas 77843USA International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China department of earth system science Tsinghua UniversityBeijing 100091China

Anthropogenic emission inventory for aerosols and reactive gases is crucial to the estimation of aerosol radiative forcing and climate ***,the anthropogenic emission inventory for AerChemMIP,endorsed by CMIP6,is briefly *** CMIP6 inventory is compared with a country-level inventory(i.e.,MEIC)over China from 1986 to *** are found in the yearly trends of the two inventories,especially after *** yearly trends of the aerosol burdens simulated by CESM2 using the two inventories follow their emission trends and deviate after the mid-2000s,while the simulated aerosol optical depths(AODs)show similar *** difference between the simulated AODs is much smaller than the difference between model and *** the simulated AODs agree with the MODIS satellite retrievals for country-wide average,the good agreement is an offset between the underestimation in eastern China and the overestimation in western ***-biased precursor gas of SO_(2),overly strong convergence of the wind field,overly strong dilution and transport by summer monsoon circulation,too much wet scavenging by precipitation,and overly weak aerosol swelling due to low-biased relative humidity are suggested to be responsible for the underestimated AOD in eastern *** indicates that the influence of the emission inventory uncertainties on simulated aerosol properties can be overwhelmed by model biases of meteorology and aerosol *** is necessary for climate models to perform reasonably well in the dynamical,physical,and chemical processes that would influence aerosol simulations.

关键词： anthropogenic emission inventory AerChemMIP CMIP6 MEIC aerosol CESM2

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中新世气候适宜期构造运动加速全球海洋碳循环

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science Bulletin 2024年第6期69卷 823-832页

作者：刘丰豪杜金龙黄恩清马文涛马小林 Lucas J.Lourens 田军 State Key Laboratory of Marine Geology Tongji UniversityShanghai 200092China State Key Laboratory of Satellite Ocean Environment Dynamics Second Institute of OceanographyMinistry of Natural ResourcesHangzhou 310012China State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology Institute of Earth EnvironmentChinese Academy of SciencesXi’an 710061China department of earth sciences Faculty of GeosciencesUtrecht UniversityUtrecht CB 3584Netherlands

global warming during the Miocene Climate Optimum(MCO,~17-14 million years ago)is associated with massive carbon emissions sourced from the flood basalt volcanism and ocean crustal ***,the perturbation of tectonic carbon degassing on the interaction between climate change and carbon cycle remains ***,through time-evolutive phase analysis of new and published high-resolution benthic foraminiferal oxygen(δ^(18)O)and carbon(δ^(13)C)isotope records from the global ocean,we find that variations in the marine carbon cycle lead the climate-cryosphere system(δ^(13)Clead-δ^(18)O)on 405,000-year eccentricity timescales during the *** is in contrast to the previously reported climate-lead-carbon(δ^(18)O-lead-δ^(13)C)scenario during most of the Oligo-Miocene(~34-6 million years ago).Further sensitivity analysis and model simulations suggest that the elevated atmospheric CO_(2) concentrations and the resulting greenhouse effect strengthened the low-latitude hydrological cycle during the MCO,accelerating the response of marine carbon cycle to eccentricity *** climate processes played a more important role in regulating carbon-cycle variations when earth's climate was in a warm regime,as opposed to the dominant influence of polar ice-sheet dynamics during the PlioPleistocene(after~6 million years ago).

关键词： global warming Eccentricity cycle Carbon cycle Low-latitude hydrological cycle

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Climate-influenced vector-borne diseases in Africa: a call to empower the next generation of African researchers for sustainable solutions

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贫困所致传染病(英文) 2024年第2期13卷 1-10页

作者： Obame-Nkoghe Judica?l Agossou Adjoavi Esse Mboowa Gerald Kamgang Basile Caminade Cyril Duke Dawn C. Githeko Andrew Karanja Ogega Obed M. Elloué Nestor Engone Sarr Fatou Bintou Nkoghe Dieudonné Kengne Pierre Ndam Nicaise T. Paupy Christophe Bockarie Moses Otomo Patricks Voua Molecular and Cellular Biology Laboratory (LabMC) Biology Department University of Science and Technology of Masuku BP Franceville Gabon Ecology and Health Research Unit Interdisciplinary Center for Medical Research of Franceville BP Franceville Gabon department of Zoology and Entomology Faculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences University of the Free State Private Bag x13 Phuthaditjhaba Republic of South Africa Laboratory of Pharmacology and Improved Traditional Medicines Department of Animal Physiology Faculty of Science and Technology University of Abomey-Calavi BP Cotonou Benin The African Center of Excellence in Bioinformatics and Data-Intensive sciences Infectious Diseases Institute College of Health Sciences Makerere University P. O Box Kampala Uganda Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention African Union Commission Roosevelt Street P.O. Box WKAddis Ababa Ethiopia Centre for Research in Infectious Diseases P.O. Box Yaoundé Cameroon earth system Physics department The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste Italy Africa Research Excellence Fund Charterhouse Street London EC1MHR UK Community Health Support Program P.O. Box Kisumu Kenya The African Academy of sciences Nairobi Kenya Center for Phylosophical studies and Research (CERP) Omar Bongo University (UOB) BP Libreville Gabon UMRED Health Training and Research Unit University of Iba Der Thiam of Thiès BP Thiès Senegal National Parasitic Diseases Control Program Ministry of Health Libreville Gabon MIVEGEC Univ. Montpellier CNRS IRD Montpellier France MERIT IRD Paris Cité University Paris France department of Parasitology Noguchi Memorial Institute for Medical Research University of Ghana LG Accra Ghana School of Community Health sciences Njala University Bo Sierra Leone

We look at the link between climate change and vector-borne diseases in low- and middle-income countries in Africa. The large endemicity and escalating threat of diseases such as malaria and arboviral diseases, intensified by climate change, disproportionately affects vulnerable communities globally. We highlight the urgency of prioritizing research and development, advocating for robust scientific inquiry to promote adaptation strategies, and the vital role that the next generation of African research leaders will play in addressing these challenges. Despite significant challenges such as funding shortages within countries, various pan-African-oriented funding bodies such as the African Academy of sciences, the Africa Research Excellence Fund, the Wellcome Trust, the U.S. National institutes of Health, and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation as well as initiatives such as the African Research Initiative for Scientific Excellence and the Pan-African Mosquito Control Association, have empowered (or are empowering) these researchers by supporting capacity building activities, including continental and global networking, skill development, mentoring, and African-led research. This article underscores the urgency of increased national investment in research, proposing the establishment of research government agencies to drive evidence-based interventions. Collaboration between governments and scientific communities, sustained by pan-African funding bodies, is crucial. Through these efforts, African nations are likely to enhance the resilience and adaptive capacity of their systems and communities by navigating these challenges effectively, fostering scientific excellence and implementing transformative solutions against climate-sensitive vector-borne diseases.

关键词： Climate change Vector-borne diseases Africa Environmental justice Research and development Pan-African funding initiatives

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Cross-sectional rainfall observation on the central-western Tibetan Plateau in the warm season:system design and preliminary results

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science China earth sciences 2023年第5期66卷 1015-1030页

作者： Kun YANG Yingying CHEN Lazhu Changhui ZHAN Xiaoyan LING Xu ZHOU Yaozhi JIANG Xiangnan YAO Hui LU Xiaogang MA Lin OUYANG Weihao PAN Yanghang REN Changkun SHAO Jiaxin TIAN Yan WANG Hua YANG Siyu YUE Ke ZHANG Dingchi ZHAO Long ZHAO Jianhong ZHOU Mijun ZOU Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for earth system Modeling Department of Earth System ScienceInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China National Tibetan Plateau Data Center State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System and Resource EnvironmentInstitute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China Research Center for Ecology College of ScienceTibet UniversityLhasa850011China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Science and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing100101China Chongqing Jinfo Mountain Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research Station School of Geographical SciencesSouthwest UniversityChongqing400715China

The central and western Tibetan Plateau(CWTP)is characterized by harsh environment and strong interactions among the spheres of earth as well as significant changes in climate and water cycles over the past four *** lack of precipitation observations is a bottleneck for the study of land surface processes in this *** the past six years,we have designed and established two observation transects across the south-north and the west-east in this region to obtain hourly rainfall data during the warm season(May-September).The south-north transect extends from Yadong Valley on the southern slope of the Himalayas to Shuanghu County in the hinterland of the plateau,with a total of 31stations;the west-east transect extends from Shiquanhe in the west to Naqu in the central TP,with a total of 22 *** observation dataset has been applied to clarify the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation in the CWTP,to evaluate the quality of typical gridded precipitation products,to support the development of regional climate models,and to reveal the processes of summertime lake-air *** observation dataset has been released in the National Tibetan Plateau Data Center.

关键词： Central and western Tibetan Plateau Rainfall observation transects Observation uncertainty Spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation Precipitation data evaluation

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