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Electricity demand forecasting at distribution and household levels using explainable causal graph neural network

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Energy and AI 2024年第2期16卷 385-395页

作者： Amir Miraki Pekka Parviainen Reza Arghandeh department of Computer science Electrical Engineering and Mathematical SciencesWestern Norway University of Applied SciencesBergenNorway department of Informatics University of BergenBergenNorway

Forecasting electricity demand is an essential part of the smart grid to ensure a stable and reliable power grid. With the increasing integration of renewable energy resources into the grid, forecasting the demand for electricity is critical at all levels, from the distribution to the household. Most existing forecasting methods, however, can be considered black-box models as a result of deep digitalization enablers, such as deep neural networks, which remain difficult to interpret by humans. Moreover, capture of the inter-dependencies among variables presents a significant challenge for multivariate time series forecasting. In this paper we propose eXplainable Causal Graph Neural Network (X-CGNN) for multivariate electricity demand forecasting that overcomes these limitations. As part of this method, we have intrinsic and global explanations based on causal inferences as well as local explanations based on post-hoc analyses. We have performed extensive validation on two real-world electricity demand datasets from both the household and distribution levels to demonstrate that our proposed method achieves state-of-the-art performance.

关键词： Causal inference Electricity demand forecasting Explainable artificial intelligence(XAI) Graph neural network

Novel Cs-Mg-Al mixed oxide with improved mobility of oxygen species for passive NOx adsorption

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Green Energy & Environment 2024年第10期9卷 1581-1591页

作者： Yimeng Yin Chizhong Wang Lei Qiu Xing Li Feilin Zhao Jie Yu Jinchi Han Huazhen Chang School of Environment and Natural Resources Renmin University of China department of earth System science Tsinghua University

The development of passive NOxadsorbers with cost-benefit and high NOxstorage capacity remains an on-going challenge to after-treatment technologies at lower temperatures associated with cold-start ***,Cs1Mg3Al catalyst prepared by sol±gel method was cyclic tested in NOxstorage under 5 vol%*** 100°C,the NOxstorage capacity (1219μmol g-1) was much higher than that of Pt/Ba O/Al2O3(610μmol g-1).This provided new insights for non-noble metal catalysts in low-temperature passive *** addition of Cs improved the mobility of oxygen species and thus improved the NOxstorage *** XRD,XPS,IR spectra and in situ DRIFTs with NH3probe showed an interaction between CsOxand AlOxsites via oxygen species formed on Cs1Mg3Al *** improved mobility of oxygen species inferred from O2-TPD was consistent with high NOxstorage capacity related to enhanced formation of nitrate and additional nitrite species by ***,the addition of Mg might improve the stability of Cs1Mg3Al by stabilizing surface active oxygen species in cyclic experiments.

关键词： Passive NO x adsorber Low-temperature NO x storage Cesium Oxygen mobility

Phanerozoic co-evolution of O2-CO2 and ocean habitability

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National science Review 2024年第6期11卷 18-21页

作者： Zunli Lu Rosalind E.M.Rickaby Jonathan L.Payne Ashley N.Prow department of earth & Environmental sciences Syracuse University department of earth sciences University of Oxford department of earth and Planetary sciences Stanford University

Atmospheric carbon dioxide and oxygen concentrations are partially linked via the geological cycle of organic carbon （Fig. 1A–C; e.g. CO2+H2O■CH2O+O2）. The history of these two biologically active components, controls on their concentrations, and implications for the complexity of the biosphere and habitability of earth have been hotly debated, but are generally considered independently.

关键词： CO2-CONCENTRATING MECHANISM OXYGEN EVOLUTION ANOXIA

Fossil organic carbon weathering:A nexus in global biogeochemical cycles

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science China earth sciences 2024年第6期67卷 2068-2072页

作者： Gaojun LI Gen KLI department of earth and Planetary sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China department of earth science University of CaliforniaSanta Barbara CA 93106USA

The participation of life processes represents a fundamental feature of geochemical cycles on the planet *** of primary processes is that the carbon-based life utilizes photosynthesis to convert atmospheric CO_(2) int... 详细信息

关键词： weathering earth geochemical

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Global weirding at mass extinction horizons

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National science Review 2024年第1期11卷 10-12页

作者： Gregory J.Retallack department of earth sciences University of Oregon

A strong motivation for studying mass extinctions is understanding how current climatic and biodiversity crises will affect creatures living on land such as ourselves. Perhaps the question is: how bad can it get? In that case, terrestrial Permian-Triassic mass extinctions are an irresistible worst-case scenario [1].

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Meldonium-induced steatosis is associated with increased delta 6 desaturation and reduced elongation of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids

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Liver Research 2024年第3期8卷 152-164页

作者： Bodil Bjørndal Siri Lunde Tungland Pavol Bohov Magne OSydnes Simon N.Dankel Lise Madsen Rolf K Berge department of Clinical science University of BergenBergenNorway department of Sports Physical Activity and FoodWestern Norway University of Applied SciencesBergenNorway department of Chemistry Bioscience and Environmental EngineeringUniversity of StavangerStavangerNorway department of Clinical Medicine University of BergenBergenNorway department of Heart Disease Haukeland University HospitalBergenNorway

Background and objective Metabolic associated fatty liver disease(MAFLD)is associated with abnormal lipid *** dysfunction is considered an important factor in the onset of MAFLD,whereas altered fatty acid composition has been linked to the severity of the *** acid(TTA),shown to induce mitochondrial proliferation and alter the fatty acid composition,was used to delay the accumulation of hepatic *** study aimed to evaluate how impaired mitochondrial fatty acid beta-oxidation affects fatty acid composition by incorporating meldonium into a high-carbohydrate *** C57BL/6 mice(n=40)were fed high-carbohydrate diets supplemented with meldonium,TTA,or a combination of meldonium and TTA for 21 *** levels were determined in liver samples,and fatty acid composition was measured in both liver and plasma ***,desaturase and elongase activities were *** hepatic activities and gene expression levels of enzymes involved in fatty acid metabolism were measured in liver samples,whereas carnitines,their precursors,and acylcarnitines were measured in plasma *** The meldonium-induced depletion of L-carnitine and mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation was confirmed by reduced plasma levels of L-carnitine and *** component analyses of the hepatic fatty acid composition revealed clustering dependent on meldonium and *** meldonium-induced increase in hepatic triacylglycerol levels correlated negatively with estimated activities of elongases and was associated with higher estimated activities of delta-6 desaturase(D6D;C18:4n-3/C18:3n-3 and C18:3n-6/C18:2n-6),and increased circulating levels of C18:4n-3 and C18:3n-6(gamma-linolenic acid).TTA mitigated meldonium-induced triacylglycerol levels by 80%and attenuated the estimated D6D activities,and elongation of n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids(PUFAs).TTA also attenuated the meldonium-mediated reduction of C24:1n-

关键词： Steatosis Fatty acid composition Fatty acid oxidation Meldonium Desaturase Elongasen-6 polyunsaturated fatty acid

Multiscale spatiotemporal meteorological drought prediction:A deep learning approach

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 211-221页

作者： Jia-Li ZHANG Xiao-Meng HUANG Yu-Ze SUN department of earth System science Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System ModellingInstitute for Global Change StudiesTsinghua UniversityBeijing 100084China

Reliable monitoring and thorough spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought are crucial for early warning and decision-making regarding drought-related *** utilisation of multiscale methods is effective for a comprehensive evaluation of drought occurrence and progression,given the complex nature of meteorological ***,the nonlinear spatiotemporal features of meteorological droughts,influenced by various climatological,physical and environmental factors,pose significant challenges to integrated prediction that considers multiple indicators and time *** address these constraints,we introduce an innovative deep learning framework based on the shifted window transformer,designed for executing spatiotemporal prediction of meteorological drought across multiple *** formulate four prediction indicators using the standardized precipitation index and the standard precipitation evaporation index as core methods for drought definition using the ERA5 reanalysis *** indicators span time scales of approximately 30 d and one ***-term indicators capture more anomalous variations,whereas long-term indicators attain comparatively higher accuracy in predicting future *** focus on the East Asian region,notable for its diverse climate conditions and intricate terrains,to validate the model's efficacy in addressing the complexities of nonlinear spatiotemporal *** model's performance is evaluated from diverse spatiotemporal viewpoints,and practical application values are analysed by representative drought *** results substantiate the effectiveness of our proposed model in providing accurate multiscale predictions and capturing the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of *** of the four drought indicators accurately delineates specific facets of the meteorological drought ***,three representative drought events,namely flash drought,sustained drought and severe drought,

关键词： Meteorological drought Spatiotemporal prediction Multiscale Swim transformer Deep learning

Analysis of ancient mass extinction recoveries in marine environments: generating strategies for managing outcomes of the current mass extinction

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National science Review 2024年第1期11卷 8-10页

作者： David J.Bottjer department of earth sciences University of Southern California

The defining feature of a mass extinction and its associated recovery is the global amount of extinction that occurred[1]. However, there is finer-scale detail to the story, as seen in the ongoing modern mass extinction(the sixth mass extinction), which exhibits variable effects among marine ecosystems and environments, and hence geographic areas [1].

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Late Ordovician Mass Extinction: earth, fire and ice

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National science Review 2024年第1期11卷 51-65页

作者： David A.T.Harper Palaeoecosystems Group Department of Earth SciencesDurham University

The Late Ordovician Mass Extinction was the earliest of the ‘big’ five extinction events and the earliest to affect the trajectory of metazoan life. Two phases have been identified near the start of the Hirnantian period and in the middle. It was a massive taxonomic extinction, a weak phylogenetic extinction and a relatively benign ecological extinction. A rapid cooling, triggering a major ice age that reduced the temperature of surface waters, prompted a drop in sea level of some 100 m and introduced toxic bottom waters onto the shelves. These symptoms of more fundamental planetary processes have been associated with a range of factors with an underlying driver identified as volcanicity. Volcanic eruptions, and other products, may have extended back in time to at least the Sandbian and early Katian, suggesting the extinctions were more protracted and influential than hitherto documented.

关键词： Ordovician LOME paleoecology palaeobiogeography biotas