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Predictability Study of Weather and Climate Events Related to Artificial Intelligence Models

Advances in atmospheric sciences 2025年第1期42卷 1-8页

作者： Mu MU Bo QIN Guokun DAI department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences&Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Key laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Frontiers Science Center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology Shanghai 200438China Key laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of EducationShanghai 200438China

Conducting predictability studies is essential for tracing the source of forecast errors,which not only leads to the improvement of observation and forecasting systems,but also enhances the understanding of weather and climate *** the past few decades,dynamical numerical models have been the primary tools for predictability studies,achieving significant ***,with the advances in artificial intelligence(AI)techniques and accumulations of vast meteorological data,modeling weather and climate events using modern data-driven approaches is becoming trendy,where FourCastNet,Pangu-Weather,and GraphCast are successful *** this perspective article,we suggest AI models should not be limited to forecasting but be expanded to predictability studies,leveraging AI's advantages of high efficiency and self-contained optimization *** this end,we first remark that AI models should possess high simulation capability with fine spatiotemporal resolution for two kinds of predictability *** models with high simulation capabilities comparable to numerical models can be considered to provide solutions to partial differential equations in a data-driven ***,we highlight several specific predictability issues with well-determined nonlinear optimization formulizations,which can be well-studied using AI models,holding significant scientific *** addition,we advocate for the incorporation of AI models into the synergistic cycle of the cognition–observation–model *** predictability studies have the potential to transform“big data”to“big and better data”and shift the focus from“AI for forecasts”to“AI for science”,ultimately advancing the development of the atmospheric and oceanic sciences.

关键词： predictability artificial intelligence models simulation and forecasting nonlinear optimization cognition–observation–model paradigm

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Numerical prediction of oceanic mesoscale circulation and satellite altimetry data assimilation in the Western Pacific

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Science China Earth sciences 2025年第3期68卷 909-927页

作者： Zhijin LI Jianfang FEI Renhe ZHANG Xingliang JIANG Wenlong MA Xiaoping CHENG Lei LIU Guihua WANG Changlin CHEN department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University Shanghai Key laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change College of meteorology and Oceanology National University of Defense Technology

oceanic mesoscale circulations, primarily manifesting as eddies, typically span around 100 km horizontally and persist for about a month. These circulations represent the main component of oceanic kinetic energy and are referred to as the“weather” of the ocean. Forecasting efforts, focused on periods from a day to a month, target these mesoscale *** in eddy-resolving models, observing systems such as Argo floats and satellite altimeters, and data assimilation techniques have enabled systems like HYCOM in the United States and Mercator-Ocean in Europe to predict these features effectively. To further enhance mesoscale forecasting, the Pacific Regional Ocean Forecast System(RPOFS) was developed for the pan-western Pacific(100°E–178°E, 20°S–50°N). Covering the dynamic Kuroshio and Kuroshio Extension regions, RPOFS features a 3 km horizontal grid and 67 vertical levels, with a multi-scale three-dimensional variational data assimilation(MS-3DVAR) scheme implemented. This system assimilates data from various sources, including satellite sea surface height and temperature, as well as subsurface profiles. In particular, an enhanced altimeter data assimilation methodology allows explicitly constraining both barotropic and baroclinic components of sea surface height. RPOFS demonstrates reliable forecasting of mesoscale circulations, with five-day forecasts accurately predicting eddies larger than 150 km and capturing features of the Kuroshio large meander. Forecasting errors are comparable to or smaller than those of HYCOM and Mercator-Ocean systems.

关键词： Western Pacific Ocean Ocean model Mesoscale eddy Numerical prediction Multiscale data assimilation Satellite altimetry

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Airborne Investigation of Riming:Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics within a Weak Convective System in North China

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2025年第3期42卷 515-526页

作者： Xiangfeng HU Hao HUANG Shaoyu HOU Kun ZHAO Chuanfeng ZHAO Yinghui LU Jiefang YANG Rong ZHANG Delong ZHAO Weiguo LIU Dan ZHANG Haixia XIAO Key laboratory of Radar meteorology and State Key laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorology AdministrationBeijing 100044China China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an atmospheric Boundary Layer Key laboratory Xiong'an New AreaHebei 071703China Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Center ShijiazhuangHebei 051430China School of atmospheric sciences Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOEand Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material CyclingNanjing UniversityJiangsu 210023China department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification Key laboratory China Meteorology AdministrationBeijing 100044China Beijing Weather Modification Center Beijing 100089China Nanjing joint Institute for atmospheric sciences NanjingJiangsu 210000China

The process of riming significantly impacts the microphysical characteristics of *** study uses aircraft and radar observation data in stratiform clouds with convection embedded that occurred in the central and southern regions of North China on 22 May *** microphysical structural characteristics and processes near the embedded convection core and in the stratiform cloud are analyzed *** attention is given to the effect of riming on the microphysical properties near the upper boundary of the melting layer and to the factors influencing riming *** collaborative observations reveal that the particle size distributions observed near the convection core and in the stratiform region are close,while the particle properties like habit and riming degree are quite *** the melting layer,larger plate-like ice particles and supercooled water droplets(D>50μm)are more abundant near the convective core,leading to higher collision efficiencies between ice particles and supercooled water *** fluctuation amplitudes of vertical airflow near the convective core also contribute to the increased riming activity and the formation of more heavily rimed particles,such as ***,in situ measurements from airborne probes also revealed that above the melting layer,the riming process involves two stages:the mass of snow crystals grows as supercooled droplets merge internally without changing size,followed by external freezing that significantly enlarges the crystals.

关键词： riming collision efficiency airflow fluctuation particle habit aircraft measurement

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marine sources of formaldehyde in the coastal atmosphere

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Science Bulletin 2025年第1期70卷 96-103页

作者： Hengqing Shen Likun Xue Gen Zhang Yujiao Zhu Min Zhao Xuelian Zhong Yanqiu Nie Jinghao Tang Yuhong Liu Qi Yuan Huiwang Gao Tao Wang Wenxing Wang Environment Research Institute Shandong UniversityQingdao 266237China department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong Kong 999077China State Key laboratory of Severe Weather&Key laboratory for atmospheric Chemistry of cma Institute of Atmospheric CompositionChinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081China Key laboratory of marine Environment and Ecology Ministry of Education of ChinaOcean University of ChinaQingdao 266100China marine Ecology and Environmental Science laboratory Laoshan LaboratoryQingdao 266071China

Elevated concentrations of formaldehyde and other carbonyl compounds are frequently observed in the marine atmosphere but are often significantly underestimated by atmospheric *** evaluate the potential impact of marine sources on atmospheric formaldehyde,high-resolution measurements were conducted at a coastal site(~15 m from the sea)during the summer in Qingdao,*** formaldehyde levels averaged 2.4±0.9 ppbv(1 ppbv=10^(-9)L L^(-1)),with peaks reaching 6.8 *** trajectories indicate that formaldehyde concentrations remained high in marine air *** exhibited weak correlations with primary pollutants such as NO and CO but showed strong correlations with marine tracers,notably methyl ethyl ketone and *** experiments confirmed that the photodecomposition of Enteromorpha released large amounts of formaldehyde and marine tracer *** normalized to acetylene,the levels of formaldehyde,1-butene,and MEK increased by factors of 3.8,8.1,and 3.5,*** from an observation-based chemical box model simulation,which utilizes the Master Chemical Mechanism(MCM),revealed that formaldehyde contributes 56% to the primary source of HO_(2)radicals,while neglecting formaldehyde chemistry would lead to a 15% reduction in coastal ozone production *** study interlinks oceanic biology and atmospheric chemistry,advancing the understanding of the ocean’s role as a significant source of organic compounds and its contribution to carbon cycling.

关键词： Formaldehyde Coastal atmosphere Enteromorpha marine Ozone

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Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第10期41卷 2027-2042页

作者： Yining GU Ruifen ZHAN Xiaomeng LI department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences/Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology Shanghai 200030China Institute of Desert and meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationUrumqi 830002China

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs).This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North *** on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020,four distinct circulation patterns are identified:the monsoon trough(MT)pattern,accounting for 40.3%of occurrences,the confluence zone(CON)pattern at 26.2%,the easterly wave(EW)pattern at 17.8%,and the monsoon gyre(MG)pattern at 15.7%.The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough,with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its *** CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high,and the monsoon trough,with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows *** EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows,with MTCs developing along the easterly wave *** in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows.A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity,while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other *** meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy,acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

关键词： multiple tropical cyclones western North Pacific circulation pattern monsoon trough barotropic energy conversion

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Airborne Investigation of Riming: Cloud and Precipitation Microphysics within a Weak Convective System in North China

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2025年第3期 515-526页

作者： Xiangfeng HU Hao HUANG Shaoyu HOU Kun ZHAO Chuanfeng ZHAO Yinghui LU Jiefang YANG Rong ZHANG Delong ZHAO Weiguo LIU Dan ZHANG Haixia XIAO Key laboratory of Radar meteorology and State Key laboratory of Severe Weather China Meteorology Administration China Meteorological Administration Xiong'an atmospheric Boundary Layer Key laboratory Hebei Provincial Weather Modification Center School of atmospheric sciences Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/MOE and Frontiers Science Center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Nanjing University department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences School of Physics Peking University laboratory of Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Severe Storms Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences Cloud-Precipitation Physics and Weather Modification Key laboratory China Meteorology Administration Beijing Weather Modification Center Nanjing joint Institute for atmospheric sciences

The process of riming significantly impacts the microphysical characteristics of clouds. This study uses aircraft and radar observation data in stratiform clouds with convection embedded that occurred in the central and southern regions of North China on 22 May 2017. The microphysical structural characteristics and processes near the embedded convection core and in the stratiform cloud are analyzed comparatively. Particular attention is given to the effect of riming on the microphysical properties near the upper boundary of the melting layer and to the factors influencing riming efficiency. The collaborative observations reveal that the particle size distributions observed near the convection core and in the stratiform region are close, while the particle properties like habit and riming degree are quite different. Above the melting layer,larger plate-like ice particles and supercooled water droplets(D > 50 μm) are more abundant near the convective core,leading to higher collision efficiencies between ice particles and supercooled water droplets. Larger fluctuation amplitudes of vertical airflow near the convective core also contribute to the increased riming activity and the formation of more heavily rimed particles, such as graupel. Furthermore, in situ measurements from airborne probes also revealed that above the melting layer, the riming process involves two stages: the mass of snow crystals grows as supercooled droplets merge internally without changing size, followed by external freezing that significantly enlarges the crystals.

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Alignment of Track Oscillations during Tropical Cyclone Rapid Intensification

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第4期41卷 655-670页

作者： Tong XIE Liguang WU Yecheng FENG Jinghua YU Key laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Dept.of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology Shanghai 200438China

Recent studies on tropical cyclone(TC)intensity change indicate that the development of a vertically aligned TC circulation is a key feature of its rapid intensification(RI),however,understanding how vortex alignment occurs remains a challenging topic in TC intensity change *** on the simulation outputs of North Atlantic Hurricane Wilma(2005)and western North Pacific Typhoon Rammasun(2014),vortex track oscillations at different vertical levels and their associated role in vortex alignment are examined to improve our understanding of the vortex alignment during RI of TCs with initial hurricane *** is found that vortex tracks at different vertical levels oscillate consistently in speed and direction during the RI of the two simulated *** the consistent track oscillation reduces the oscillation tilt during RI,the reduction of vortex tilt results mainly from the mean track before *** is also found that the vortex tilt is primarily due to the mean vortex track before and after *** track oscillations are closely associated with wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves that are dominant wavenumber-1 circulations in the TC inner-core *** study suggests that the dynamics of the wavenumber-1 vortex Rossby waves play an important role in the regulation of the physical processes associated with the track oscillation and vertical alignment of TCs.

关键词： tropical cyclone rapid intensification vortex tilt Rossby wave

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Decadal Changes in Dry and Wet Heatwaves in Eastern China:Spatial Patterns and Risk Assessment

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第10期41卷 2011-2026页

作者： Yue ZHANG Wen ZHOU Ruhua ZHANG department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Key laboratory of Polar Atmosphere-ocean-ice System for Weather and Climate Ministry of EducationFudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

Under global warming,understanding the long-term variation in different types of heatwaves is vital for China’s preparedness against escalating heat *** study investigates dry and wet heatwave shifts in eastern China over recent *** trend analysis displays pronounced warming in inland midlatitudes and the Yangtze River Valley,with increased humidity in coastal *** results indicate intensifying dry heatwaves in northern China,while the Yangtze River Valley sees more frequent dry *** the other hand,Indochina and regions north of 25°N also experience intensified wet heatwaves,corresponding to regional humidity *** analysis is conducted based on different situations:strong,frequent dry or wet *** dry heatwaves are influenced by anticyclonic circulations over northern China,accompanied by warming SST anomalies around the coastal midlatitudes of the western North Pacific(WNP).Frequent dry heatwaves are related to strong subsidence along with a strengthened subtropical high over the *** and frequent wet heatwaves show an intensified Okhotsk high at higher latitudes in the lower troposphere,and a negative circumglobal teleconnection wave train pattern in the upper *** El Niño SST patterns are observed in two kinds of wet heatwave and frequent dry heatwave *** analysis indicates that El Niño events heighten the likelihood of these heatwaves in regions most at *** global warming continues,adapting and implementing mitigation strategies toward extreme heatwaves becomes crucial,especially for the aforementioned regions under significant heat stress.

关键词： decadal changes dry heatwave wet heatwave eastern China

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Vertical structure of variabilities in the tropical easterly jet and associated factors

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atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2023年第5期16卷 81-87页

作者： Ye Yao Yuanyuan Guo Zhiping Wen Sihua Huang department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences&Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology ShanghaiChina Shanghai Key laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and Climate Change Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change NanjingChina

热带东风急流为热带上对流层-下平流层内夏季出现的一支强东风带,其垂直范围为300-70hPa,目前其垂直结构的变化特征有待研究.本文利用经验正交函数分解研究了热带东风急流纬向垂直剖面的主要模态。第一模态表现为垂直方向上急流强度的... 详细信息

热带东风急流为热带上对流层-下平流层内夏季出现的一支强东风带,其垂直范围为300-70hPa,目前其垂直结构的变化特征有待研究.本文利用经验正交函数分解研究了热带东风急流纬向垂直剖面的主要模态。第一模态表现为垂直方向上急流强度的一致变化.ENSO对第一模态的年际分量具有主导贡献,而大西洋年代际振荡和太平洋年代际振荡可能调制其年代际分量第二模态表现为热带东风急流垂直位移的年际变化.热带平流层准两年振荡不同位相的相继下传既可以直接影响对流层顶的纬向风异常,也可以通过改变海洋性大陆附近的对流异常影响热带东风急流的垂直位置.

关键词：热带东风急流垂直结构年际变化年代际变化厄尔尼诺-南方涛动平流层准两年振荡

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Investigating the effect of the Tibetan Plateau on the ITCZ using a coupled Earth system model

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atmospheric and oceanic Science Letters 2023年第1期16卷 53-58页

作者： Chuqiao Yan Jie Yao Xingchen Shen Haijun Yang department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences and cma-fdu joint laboratory of marine meteorology Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina Shanghai Scientific Frontier Base for Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction Studies Fudan UniversityShanghaiChina department of atmospheric and oceanic sciences School of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijingChina Science&Technology on Integrated Information System laboratory Institute of SoftwareChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文利用耦合地球气候系统模式研究了青藏高原对热带辐合带(ITCZ)的影响.我们研究发现热带大西洋ITCZ的位置对青藏高原存在与否有明显的敏感性.与目前真实情况相比,移除青藏高原会导致北半球海面降温,南半球海面升温.这种海面温度变化... 详细信息

本文利用耦合地球气候系统模式研究了青藏高原对热带辐合带(ITCZ)的影响.我们研究发现热带大西洋ITCZ的位置对青藏高原存在与否有明显的敏感性.与目前真实情况相比,移除青藏高原会导致北半球海面降温,南半球海面升温.这种海面温度变化在大西洋表现得尤为明显,导致热带大西洋最大海温中心向南移动,从而迫使大气对流中心向南移动,即表现为ITCZ的南移.相应地,夏季热带大气Hadley环流的上升支也发生明显南移.北(南)半球海洋变冷(变暖)这种态势要求增强跨赤道向北的大气经向热量输送,从而维持各个半球的能量平衡,而这需要ITCZ位置的南移才能实现.本文研究表明,青藏高原的存在在现今ITCZ气候态的形成中可能扮演了重要角色.

关键词：青藏高原热带辐合带耦合地球气候模式 Hadley环流热量输送

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