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The Role of Underlying Boundary Forcing in Shaping the Recent Decadal change of Persistent Anomalous Activity over the Ural Mountains

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1496-1510,1661-1667页

作者： Ting LEI Shuanglin LI climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Beijing Meteorological Service center Beijing 100089China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China department of atmospheric Science China University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China

Observational analyses demonstrate that the Ural persistent positive height anomaly event(PAE) experienced a decadal increase around the year 2000, exhibiting a southward displacement afterward. These decadal variations are related to a large-scale circulation shift over the Eurasian Continent. The effects of underlying sea ice and sea surface temperature(SST) anomalies on the Ural PAE and the related atmospheric circulation were explored by atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project(AMIP) experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 and by sensitivity experiments using the atmospheric General Circulation Model(AGCM). The AMIP experiment results suggest that the underlying sea ice and SST anomalies play important roles. The individual contributions of sea ice loss in the Barents-Kara Seas and the SST anomalies linked to the phase transition of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) are further investigated by AGCM sensitivity experiments isolating the respective *** sea ice decline in Barents-Kara Seas triggers an atmospheric wave train over the Eurasian mid-to-high latitudes with positive anomalies over the Urals, favoring the occurrence of Ural PAEs. The shift in the PDO to its negative phase triggers a wave train propagating downstream from the North Pacific. One positive anomaly lobe of the wave train is located over the Ural Mountains and increases the PAE there. The negative-to-positive transition of the AMO phase since the late-1990s causes positive 500-h Pa height anomalies south of the Ural Mountains, which promote a southward shift of Ural PAE.

关键词： Ural persistent anomaly Pacific decadal oscillation Atlantic multidecadal oscillation sea ice loss in Barents-Kara Seas

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The source of Double ITCZ induced by the SST bias over the tropical western Pacific as reflected in CAS-ESM2 Model

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Science China Earth sciences 2024年第5期67卷 1604-1615页

作者： Jinning TONG Fei ZHENG Jiangbo JIN Ruowen YANG Jiang ZHU Qingcun ZENG department of atmospheric sciences Yunnan UniversityKunming 650091China International center for climate and Environment Science Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

“Double ITCZ”is a common precipitation bias over the tropical Pacific in current climate models and Earth system models,but the reasons for its formation are still worth exploring and *** this study,we adopted the second version of Chinese Academy of sciences Earth System Model(CAS-ESM2),by comparing a set of sea surface temperature(SST)bias correction experiments over the tropical Pacific,to explore the possible mechanism of SST bias on inducing the“Double ITCZ”from the perspective of the climatic annual mean bias in the coupled *** revealed that the simulated climatic annual mean SST bias over the tropical Pacific can affect the bias of latent heat flux through the saturation specific humidity,and the bias of latent heat flux can further affect that of vertical velocity of humid air by the condensation release mechanism,and finally modulate the simulated bias in ***,through the inter-comparison between different experiments,it is found that the source of Double ITCZ might mainly come from the annual mean SST bias over the tropical western Pacific through the proposed air-sea coupled process of“SST-saturated specific humidity-latent heat flux-vertical velocity-precipitation”,indicating a possible way on reducing the couple biases in models over the tropical Pacific to improve the accuracy of CAS-ESM2 for climate simulation.

关键词： SST bias Double ITCZ Nudging SST CAS-ESM2

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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO department of atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of atmospheric Physics and climate change research center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center and Bjerknes Centre for climate research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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A New Merged Product Reveals Precipitation Features over Drylands in China

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第10期41卷 2079-2091页

作者： Min LUO Yuzhi LIU Jie GAO Run LUO Jinxia ZHANG Ziyuan TAN Siyu CHEN Khan ALAM Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University Collaborative Innovation center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou University department of Physics University of Peshawar

Due to the considerable uncertainties inherent in the datasets describing the spatiotemporal distributions of precipitation in the drylands of China, this study presents a new merged monthly precipitation product with a spatial resolution of approximately 0.2° × 0.2° during 1980–2019. The newly developed precipitation product was validated at different temporal scales（e.g., monthly, seasonally, and annually）. The results show that the new product consistently aligns with the spatiotemporal distributions reported by the Chinese Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System（CLDAS） product and Multi-Source Weighted Ensemble Precipitation（MSWEP）. The merged product exhibits exceptional quality in describing the drylands of China, with a bias of –2.19 mm month–1relative to MSWEP. In addition,the annual trend of the merged product(0.09 mm month–1yr–1) also closely aligns with that of the MSWEP(0.11 mm month–1yr–1) during 1980–2019. The increasing trend indicates that the water cycle and wetting process intensified in the drylands of China during this period. In particular, there was an increase in wetting during the period from 2001–***, the merged product exhibits potential value for improving our understanding of the climate and water cycle in the drylands of China.

关键词： drylands merged dataset precipitation water cycle

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Seasonal Variation of the Sea Surface Temperature Growth Rate of ENSO

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第3期41卷 465-477页

作者： Xinyi XING Xianghui FANG Da PANG Chaopeng JI department of atmospheric and Oceanic sciences and Institute of atmospheric sciences Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China Shanghai Frontiers Science center of Atmosphere-Ocean Interaction Shanghai 200438China Shanghai Key Laboratory of Ocean-land-atmosphere Boundary Dynamics and climate change Fudan UniversityShanghai 200438China

El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO) exhibits a distinctive phase-locking characteristic, first expressed during its onset in boreal spring, developing during summer and autumn, reaching its peak towards winter, and decaying over the next spring. Several studies have demonstrated that this feature arises as a result of seasonal variation in the growth rate of ENSO as expressed by the sea surface temperature(SST). The bias towards simulating the phase locking of ENSO by many state-of-the-art climate models is also attributed to the unrealistic depiction of the growth rate. In this study, the seasonal variation of SST growth rate in the Ni?o-3.4 region(5°S–5°N, 120°–170°W) is estimated in detail based on the mixed layer heat budget equation and recharge oscillator model during 1981–2020. It is suggested that the consideration of a variable mixed layer depth is essential to its diagnostic process. The estimated growth rate has a remarkable seasonal cycle with minimum rates occurring in spring and maximum rates evident in autumn. More specifically, the growth rate derived from the meridional advection(surface heat flux) is positive(negative) throughout the year. Vertical diffusion generally makes a negative contribution to the evolution of growth rate and the magnitude of vertical entrainment represents the smallest contributor. Analysis indicates that the zonal advective feedback is regulated by the meridional immigration of the intertropical convergence zone, which approaches its southernmost extent in February and progresses to its northernmost location in September, and dominates the seasonal variation of the SST growth rate.

关键词： SST growth rate intertropical convergence zone zonal advective feedback mixed layer depth ENSO seasonal variation

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate Centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Representation of the Stratospheric Circulation in CRA-40 Reanalysis:The Arctic Polar Vortex and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第5期41卷 894-914页

作者： Zixu WANG Shirui YAN Jinggao HU Jiechun DENG Rongcai REN Jian RAO Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The representation of the Arctic stratospheric circulation and the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO)during the period 1981–2019 in a 40-yr Chinese global reanalysis dataset(CRA-40)is evaluated by comparing two widely used reanalysis datasets,ERA-5 and ***-40 demonstrates a comparable performance with ERA-5 and MERRA-2 in characterizing the winter and spring circulation in the lower and middle Arctic ***,differences in the climatological polar-mean temperature and polar night jet among the three reanalyses are within±0.5 K and±0.5 m s^(–1),*** onset dates of the stratospheric sudden warming and stratospheric final warming events at 10 hPa in CRA-40,together with the dynamics and circulation anomalies during the onset process of warming events,are nearly identical to the other two reanalyses with slight *** contrast,the CRA-40 dataset demonstrates a deteriorated performance in describing the QBO below 10 hPa compared to the other two reanalysis products,manifested by the larger easterly biases of the QBO index,the remarkably weaker amplitude of the QBO,and the weaker wavelet power of the QBO *** pronounced biases are mainly concentrated in the period 1981–98 and largely reduced by at least 39%in 1999–***,particular caution is needed in studying the QBO based on *** three reanalyses exhibit greater disagreement in the upper stratosphere compared to the lower and middle stratosphere for both the polar region and the tropics.

关键词： CRA-40 ERA-5 MERRA-2 Arctic stratosphere the QBO

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Substantial increase of heat-induced labor and economic loss in China under rapid economic and environmental temperature growth

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Advances in climate change research 2024年第4期15卷 708-716页

作者： Bo-Wen CHU Jian-Feng LUO Ke-Xin WANG Zhen-Cheng XING Hai-Kun WANG Joint International research Laboratory of atmospheric and Earth System sciences School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Collaborative Innovation center of climate change Jiangsu ProvinceNanjing 210023China Frontiers Science center for Critical Earth Material Cycling Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China Nanjin-Helski Insiute in Amosperc and Earth System sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China

Exposure to heat stress causes diminished work performance and leads to economic *** the last two decades,China has experienced both rapid economic development and environmental warming;however,the spatiotemporal variations of association between environmental heat and labor loss have been rarely investigated behind this double ***,we evaluated the variation in China's heat-induced labor productivity loss and related economic cost from 2001 to 2019 and investigated the effect of economic development and regional *** found that decline in labor productivity because of heat stress increased significantly(pclimate change,especially in developing areas with higher temperature and humidity environment.

关键词： Heat stress Labor loss Wet bulb globe temperature China Economic impact

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Characteristics of super drought in Southwest China and the associated compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies

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Science China Earth sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2084-2102页

作者： Lin WANG Wen CHEN Gang HAUNG Ting WANG Qiulin WANG Xiaoyun SU Zixuan REN Chakrit CHOTAMONSAK Atsamon LIMSAKUL Kritanai TORSRI CAS Key Laboratory of Regional climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China department of atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for atmospheric sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Carbon Neutrality research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou 310051China center for Monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China department of Geography Faculty of Social SciencesChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand Environmental Science research center Faculty of ScienceChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand climate change and Environmental research center TechnopolisKlong 5Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand Hydro-Informatics Innovation Division Hydro-Informatics InstituteMinistry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok 10900Thailand

In recent decades,Southwest China(SWC)has suffered from frequent super droughts,leading to severe economic losses and ecological *** study investigates the characteristics of super droughts in SWC during 1961-2022,reveals the compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies,and explores the plausible atmospheric circulation mechanisms *** nature of super drought is a compound drought caused by the superposition of extreme drought events across multiple time *** contrasting the typical drought cases in 2006 and 2022,the decisive role of multiscalar drought compounding is *** on the Comprehensive Multiscalar Index(CMI),multiple super drought events in SWC were identified to be temporally clustered during *** them,the decadal background of enhanced evaporation and precipitation deficit at long time scales is a necessary condition for shaping the overall pattern of super droughts,while the precipitation and evaporation anomalies at short time scales trigger the outbreak of super droughts,determining the exact timing of *** events include August-September 2006,November 2009 to May 2010,July-October 2011,April-May 2012,January-April 2013,*** results suggest that the contribution of superposed precipitation anomalies to super drought is 2.4 times that of *** regards the circulation mechanisms affecting multiscalar precipitation,the anomalous spatial patterns at short-term and long-term scales are similar,featuring the cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea and the northeasterly wind anomalies together with the subsidence center over *** 2006-2014,the possible causes for the cross-seasonal persistent precipitation reduction in SWC are the extreme negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)in the North Pacific as well as the pronounced warming of the warm pool in the western *** key dynamic processes are outlined as *** the one hand,the negative PDO p

关键词： Super drought Multiscalar Compounding effect Mechanism analysis Southwest China

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Projected changes in extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau based on a set of RCM simulations

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第5期17卷 3-9页

作者： Yuanhai Fu Xuejie Gao climate change research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjingChina University of Chinese Academy of sciences BeijingChina

Extreme snowfall events over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)cause considerable damage to local society and natural *** this study,the authors investigate the projected changes in such events over the TP and its surrounding areas based on an ensemble of a set of 21st century climate change projections using a regional climate model,*** model is driven by five CMIP5 global climate models at a grid spacing of 25 km,under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 *** modified ETCCDI extreme indices-namely,SNOWTOT,S1mm,S10mm,and Sx5day-are employed to characterize the extreme snowfall ***4 generally reproduces the spatial distribution of the indices over the region,although with a tendency of *** the projected changes,a general decrease in SNOWTOT is found over most of the TP,with greater magnitude and better cross-simulation agreement over the eastern *** the simulations project an overall decrease in S1mm,ranging from a 25%decrease in the west and to a 50%decrease in the east of the *** S10mm and Sx5day are projected to decrease over the eastern part and increase over the central and western parts of the ***,S10mm shows a marked increase(more than double)with high cross-simulation agreement over the central *** increases in all four indices are found over the Tarim and Qaidam basins,and northwestern China north of the *** projected changes show topographic dependence over the TP in the latitudinal direction,and tend to decrease/increase in low-/high-altitude areas.

关键词： Extreme snowfall Regional climate model Tibetan plateau climate change

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