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Climate change impact assessment on three major crops in the north-central region of Bangladesh using DSSAT

International Journal of Agricultural and Biological Engineering 2018年第4期11卷 135-143页

作者： Atikur Rahman Mohammad Abdul Mojid Selina Banu department of Irrigation and water management Bangladesh Agricultural UniversityMymensingh-2202Bangladesh department of Agricultural and Industrial Engineering Hajee Mohammad Danesh Science and Technology UniversityDinajpur-5200Bangladesh

The potential consequences of climate change emanated from global warming are very alarming;the greatest concern is the potentially disastrous consequences on crop agriculture and food security in many parts of the *** is a country highly susceptible to climate change,but information in this regard is still *** study investigated the effects of climate change on three major crops-wheat,potato and rice-in the north-central region of *** climate change scenarios,A2 and B2,of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC)were generated by employing MAGICC/SCENGEN model together with the observed climate data of the *** growth and yield of the crops were simulated using DSSAT CERES-Wheat,SUBSTOR-Potato and CERES-Rice models under the present and projected future changing climatic *** a predicted 5.32℃ increase in temperature in the year 2100,the yield of wheat,rice and potato would decrease by 47.6%,67.8%and 38.6%,*** increased temperature would accelerate physiological maturity of the crops as reflected by their reduced length of growing season(LGS)by 1.20%to 18.5%.The reduced LGS would reduce seasonal evapotranspiration(ET)of the crops by shortening time-span for ET *** to dominant yield reduction over ET reduction,the water use efficiency(WUE)for grain/tuber and biomass yields would decrease with the changing *** reduced crop yields are an indicative of a potential future risk of food security in *** results of this study can therefore guide to adopt coping mechanisms in the light of climate change to ensure future food security of the country.

关键词： climate change DSSAT MAGICC/SCENGEN model CERES model SUBSTOR model growing season length crop-water use

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Assessment of runoff changes in the sub-basin of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin, China based on multiple methods

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第4期16卷 461-482页

作者： WANG Xingbo ZHANG Shuanghu TIAN Yiman department of water Resources China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower ResearchBeijing 100038China College of Hydrology and water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

Quantitative assessment of the impact of climate variability and human activities on runoff plays a pivotal role in water resource management and maintaining ecosystem *** study considered six sub-basins in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin,China,to reveal the trend of the runoff evolution and clarify the driving factors of the changes during 1956–*** regression,Mann-Kendall test,and sliding t-test were used to study the trend of the hydrometeorological elements,while cumulative distance level and ordered clustering methods were applied to identify mutation *** contributions of climate change and human disturbance to runoff changes were quantitatively assessed using three methods,i.e.,the rainfall-runoff relationship method,slope variation method,and variable infiltration capacity(Budyko)hypothesis ***,the availability and stability of the three methods were *** results showed that the runoff in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River basin exhibited a decreasing trend from 1956 to 2020,with an abrupt change in *** attribution analysis,the runoff series could be divided into two phases,i.e.,1961–1985(baseline period)and 1986–2020(changing period);and it was found that the rainfall-runoff relationship method with precipitation as the representative of climate factors had limited usability compared with the other two methods,while the slope variation and Budyko hypothesis methods had highly consistent *** factors showed different effects in the sub-basins of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River ***,human disturbance was the main factor that contributed to the runoff changes,accounting for 53.0%–82.0%;and the contribution of climate factors to the runoff change was 17.0%–47.0%,making it the secondary factor,in which precipitation was the most representative climate *** results provide insights into how climate and anthropogenic changes synergistically influence the runoff of t

关键词： economic belt runoff change influencing assessment climate human activities

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A MULTI-PERIOD PRICING AND INVENTORY CONTROL MODEL

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Journal of Systems Science & Complexity 2010年第2期23卷 249-260页

作者： Juliang ZHANG Jian CHEN department of Logistics management School of Economics and Management Beijing Jiaotong UniversityBeijing 100044 China. department of management Science and Engineering School of Economics and Management Tsinghua University Beijing 100084 China.

The authors analyze a finite horizon,single product,period review model in which pricingand inventory decisions are made *** in different periods are random variablesthat are independent of each other and their distributions depend on the product *** andordering decisions are made at the beginning of each period and all shortage are *** is a convex function of the amount *** objective is to find an inventory and pricing policymaximizing expected discounted profit over the finite *** authors characterize the structure ofthe optimal combined pricing and inventory strategy for this ***,the authors demonstratehow the profit-to-go function,order up to level,reorder point and optimal price change with respectto state and time.

关键词： Convex cost function planning horizon pricing stochastic inventory management uncertainty.

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On the use of horizontal acoustic Doppler profilers for continuous bed shear stress monitoring

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International Journal of Sediment Research 2013年第2期28卷 260-268页

作者： B.VERMEULEN AJF HOITINK MG SASSI Hydrologyand Quantitative water management Group Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen UniversityPO Box 476700AA Wageningenthe Netherlands Ph.D.Candidate Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Department of Physical Geography Utrecht UniversityPO Box 80.0053508TA Utrechtthe Netherlands Assoc.Prof. Hydrologyand Quantitative water management Group Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen UniversityPO Box 476700AA Wageningenthe Netherlands Hydrologyand Quantitative water management Group Department of Environmental SciencesWageningen UniversityPO Box 476700AA Wageningenthe Netherlands Dr.

Continuous monitoring of bed shear stress in large river systems may serve to better estimate alluvial sediment transport to the coastal *** we explore the possibility of using a horizontally deployed acoustic Doppler current profiler(ADCP) to monitor bed shear stress,applying a prescribed boundary layer model,previously used for discharge *** model parameters include the local roughness length and a dip correction factor to account for sidewall *** these parameters depend on river stage and on the position in the cross-section, and were estimated from shipborne ADCP *** applied the calibrated boundary layer model to obtain bed shear stress estimates over the measuring range of the *** validate the results,co-located coupled ADCPs were used to infer bed shear stress,both from Reynolds stress profiles and from mean velocity profiles. From HADCP data collected over a period of 1.5 years,a time series of width profiles of bed shear stress was obtained for a tidal reach of the Mahakam River,East Kalimantan,Indonesia.A smaller dataset covering 25 hours was used for comparison with results from the coupled *** bed shear stress estimates derived from Reynolds stress profiles appeared to be strongly affected by local effects causing upflow and downflow,which are not included in the boundary layer model used to derive bed shear stress with the horizontal *** shear stresses from the coupled ADCP are representative of a much more localized flow,while those derived with the horizontal ADCP resemble the net effect of the flow over larger *** shear stresses obtained from mean velocity profiles from the coupled ADCPs show a good agreement between the two methods,and highlight the robustness of the method to uncertainty in the estimates of the roughness length.

关键词： Bed-shear stress Horizontal ADCP Coupled ADCP Mahakam river Reynolds stress profiles

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GENERALIZED INTUITIONISTIC FUZZY HYBRID CHOQUET AVERAGING OPERATORS

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Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering 2013年第1期22卷 112-122页

作者： Fanyong MENG Qiang ZHANG School of management Qingdao Technological University department of management and Economics Beijing Institute of Technology

In this study a new hybrid aggregation operator named as the generalized intuitionistic fuzzy hybrid Choquet averaging（GIFHCA） operator is ***,some desirable properties are studied, and several important cases are ***,we define the generalized Shapley GIFHCA （GS-GIFHCA） operator,which does not only overall consider the importance of elements and their ordered positions,but also globally reflect the correlations among them and their ordered *** order to simplify the complexity of solving a fuzzy measure,we further define the generalizedλ-Shapley GIFHCA（GλS-GIFHCA） operator.

关键词： Multi-attribute group decision making intuitionistic fuzzy set Choquet integral generalized Shapley function fuzzy measure

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NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF HORIZONTAL BUOYANT WALL JET

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2010年第1期22卷 58-65页

作者： HUAI Wen-xin LI Zhi-wei QIAN Zhong-dong ZENG Yu-hong HAN Jie PENG Wen-qi State Key Laboratory of water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science Wuhan University Wuhan 430072 China department of water Environment China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing100038 China

This article applies the realizable k - ω model to simulate the buoyant wall jet and gives the results of cling length, centerline trajectory and temperature dilutions at certain sections. The comparison between the numerical results and Sharp＇s experimental data indicates that the model is effective in estimating velocity distribution and temperature dilutions. The velocity profiles at the cental plane and z-plane both show a strong similarity at certain distance from the nozzle, and the distributions of velocity and temperature dilutions also exhibit a similarity along the axial direction at centerline in the near-field. Based on the results, the article gives the corresponding relationships between the distance and the dilutions of velocity and temperature, which is useful in predicting the behavior of the wall buoyant jet.

关键词： buoyancy wall jet cling length velocity profile temperature dilution

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Forest visualization at multiple scales for management and planning

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Science China(Technological Sciences) 2006年第Z1期49卷 27-34页

作者： David J.Mladenoff department of Forest Ecology and management

In this study forests were visualized at various scales by placing individual trees into a forest with realistic sizes and densities. Tree images were used from two sources: high quality field photos and images created using graphic design software. The terrain, species composition, and tree sizes and density from forest inventory were all represented in GIS data format. In addition, non-tree objects and features that are essential for close-to-reality visualization were combined with the tree images in a 3-D visualization software package. We further portrayed stand level effects by animating a simulated fly-through of a forest. To visualize temporal change, a case study of four different forest patches was animated. The advantages of this approach comparing to other visualization approaches are: (1) it represents the forests with realistic individual tree images; and (2) it maintains both visual and informational realism in a forest viewable from within-stand to landscape scales. Thus, this approach is realistic in two aspects. First, it is almost as realistic as a photograph, and secondly, its information content is actual forest composition, density, and height.

关键词： 3-D, visualization, forest, landscape, multiple scales.

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A dynamic model for exploring water-resource management scenarios in an inland arid area: Shanshan County, Northwestern China

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Journal of Mountain Science 2017年第6期14卷 1039-1057页

作者： CHEN Chao AHMAD Sajjad KALRA Ajay XU Zhi-xia department of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Construction University of Nevada department of Civil and Environmental Engineering Southern Illinois University department of water Resources China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research

water scarcity is a challenge in many arid and semi-arid regions; this may lead to a series of environmental problems and could be stressed even further by the effects from climate change. This study focused on the water resource management in Shanshan County, an inland arid region located in northwestern China with a long history of groundwater overexploitation. A model of the supply and demand system in the study area from 2006 to2030, including effects from global climate change,was developed using a system dynamics(SD)modeling tool. This SD model was used to 1) explore the best water-resource management options by testing system responses under various scenarios and2) identify the principal factors affecting the responses, aiming for a balance of the groundwater system and sustainable socio-economic *** causes were identified as primarily responsible for water issues in Shanshan: low water-use efficiency low water reuse, and increase in industrial waterdemand. To address these causes, a combined scenario was designed and simulated, which was able to keep the water deficiency under 5% by 2030. The model provided some insights into the dynamic interrelations that generate system behavior and the key factors in the system that govern water demand and supply. The model as well as the study results may be useful in water resources management in Shanshan and may be applied, with appropriate modifications, to other regions facing similar water management challenges.

关键词： System dynamics water resources management Northwestern China water scarcity

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The influence of drag parameter on submerged vegetation flow simulation using a porous approach

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2024年第4期36卷 796-801页

作者： Meng-yang Liu Yi-sen Wang Yi-qing Gong Shu-xia Wang College of water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China State Key Laboratory of water Resources Engineering and management Wuhan UniversityWuhan 430072China River Research department Changjiang River Scientific Research InstituteWuhan 430010China Key Laboratory of Hydrologic-Cycle and Hydrodynamic-System of Ministry of water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Institute of water Science and Technology Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

In simulating vegetated flows using the porous approach,the reasonableness of the drag coefficient significantly impacts the calculation *** study employs large eddy simulation(LES)to quantitatively investigate the effect of drag parameters on key flow characteristics in submerged vegetated *** results indicate that changes in the drag coefficient significantly alter the velocity in the middle of the vegetation layer and near the water surface in the free-flow *** with longitudinal velocity,the drag coefficient has a more pronounced effect on the vertical distribution of Reynolds stress,especially its peak at the top of the vegetation *** porous approach can accurately reproduce the vertical distribution of longitudinal velocity and Reynolds stress,consistent with experimental measurements,only when shear-scale flow *** to the high-intensity secondary flow under moderate vegetation density,fluctuations in the drag coefficient have a more significant impact on the numerical results than in very dense ***,selecting the drag coefficient value should be done cautiously,especially in the absence of experimental measurements for validation.

关键词： Drag parameter large eddy simulation(LES) submerged vegetation secondary flow porous approach

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PREDICTION TECHNIQUES OF CHAOTIC TIME SERIES AND ITS APPLICATIONS AT LOW NOISE LEVEL

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Applied Mathematics and Mechanics(English Edition) 2006年第1期27卷 7-14页

作者：马军海王志强陈予恕 School of management department of Mechanics

The paper not only studies the noise reduction methods of chaotic time series with noise and its reconstruction techniques, but also discusses prediction techniques of chaotic time series and its applications based on chaotic data noise reduction. In the paper, we first decompose the phase space of chaotic time series to range space and null noise space. Secondly we restructure original chaotic time series in range space. Lastly on the basis of the above, we establish order of the nonlinear model and make use of the nonlinear model to predict some research. The result indicates that the nonlinear model has very strong ability of approximation function, and Chaos predict method has certain tutorial significance to the practical problems.

关键词： chaotic time series noise reduction essential characteristic extraction nonlinear model predict technology

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