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Relevance of hybrid artificial intelligence for improving the forecasting accuracy of natural resource prices

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 431-446页

作者： Mei Li Rida Waheed Dervis Kirikkaleli Ghazala Aziz School of Management and Economics and Shenzhen finance Institute The Chinese University of Hong KongShenzhen(CUHK-Shenzhen)China department of finance and Economics College of BusinessUniversity of JeddahJeddahSaudi Arabia European University of Lefke Faculty of Economic and Administrative ScienceDepartment of Banking and FinanceLefkeTurkey department of Business Administration College of Administrative and Financial SciencesSaudi Electronic UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia

The prediction performance of traditional forecasting methods is low due to the high level of complexity in a series of energy *** present study attempts to compare the traditional regression,machine learning tools and hybrid models to conclude the outperforming *** first step is to propose the effective denoising technique for Tadawul energy index,which has confirmed the superiority of CSD based ***,we use the CSD-ARIMA,CSD-ANN,and CSD-RNN as hybrid *** a result,CSD-RNN outperforms both other models in terms of MSE,MAPE,RMSE and *** findings are useful for policy makers,investors and portfolio managers to forecast the energy trends,and hedge the portfolio risk accordingly.

关键词： Hybrid artificial intelligence CSD denoising technique Forecasting Energy prices Saudi Arabia

Can ChatGPT reduce human financial analysts’optimistic biases?

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Economic and Political Studies 2024年第1期12卷 20-33页

作者： Xiaoyang Li Haoming Feng Hailong Yang Jiyuan Huang School of Accounting and finance The Hong Kong Polytechnic UniversityHong Kong SARChina School of finance Renmin University of ChinaBeijingChina department of banking and finance University of ZurichZurichSwitzerland Swiss finance Institute ZurichSwitzerland

This paper examines the potential of ChatGPT,a large language model,as a financial advisor for listed firm performance *** focus on the constituent stocks of the China Securities Index 300 and compare ChatGPT’s forecasts for major financial performance measures with human analysts’forecasts and the realised *** findings suggest that ChatGPT can correct the optimistic biases of human *** study contributes to the literature by exploring the potential of ChatGPT as a financial advisor and demonstrating its role in reducing human biases in financial decision-making.

关键词： ChatGPT large language models analyst forecast optimistic biases human–machine interaction

Comprehensive Dynamics of banking: A Systemic Approach Incorporating Lending, Investment, and Capital Variables

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Journal of Systems Science and Information 2024年第3期12卷 323-339页

作者： Gulnaz ABDUKADYROVA Adilia TABYSHOVA Minara NAZEKOVA Jyldyz ALYMBAEVA Cholpon TOKTOSUNOVA department of banking and the Securities Market Musa Ryskulbekov Kyrgyz Economic UniversityBishkek 720033Kyrgyz Republic department of finance and Financial Technologies named after S.A.Sulaymanbekov Musa Ryskulbekov Kyrgyz Economic UniversityBishkek 720033Kyrgyz Republic

The research topic related to the analysis of banking activity is relevant since the banking sector is complex and dynamic and requires constant monitoring and analysis to make informed decisions. Using a mathematical model of system dynamics to analyse banking activities can help banks make better decisions, manage risk, ensure the stability and efficiency of operations, and adapt to changing conditions. The purpose of the study is to determine the influence of various factors, in particular economic activity, on the final profit of the bank. Among the methods used, the analytical method, the functional method, the system analysis method, the deduction method, the synthesis method, and the comparison method were applied. In the course of this study, an extensive analytical review of banking activities was carried out using a system dynamics model, taking into account the requirements of the International Financial Reporting Standards(IFRS 9). The study included various scenario analyses to explore the impact of changes in economic conditions on the bank's loan portfolio,risk level, and profitability. Both economic growth scenarios and recession scenarios were considered in order to more fully assess their impact on the financial condition of the bank. A forecast and analysis of the risks associated with lending, investments, and other bank operations was carried out. The practical significance lies in the application of the results obtained to address issues related to banking in order to increase the efficiency of this process and achieve a new level of development.

关键词： credit risks recession scenario economic activity management decisions loan portfolio

Exploring the asymmetric impact of economic complexity,FDI,and green technology on carbon emissions:Policy stringency for clean-energy investing countries

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第4期15卷 459-473页

作者： Najia Saqib Gheorghița Dinca˘ department of finance College of Business AdministrationPrince Sultan UniversityRiyadhKingdom of Saudi Arabia department of finance and Accounting Transilvania University of BrașovBrașovRomania

All economies are concerned about rising carbon emissions,which contribute to environmental *** current paper formulates a novel framework to scrutinize the impacts of shocks in economic complexity,FDI,environmental technology,and renewable energy on carbon emission in the leading clean energy investment countries,spanning the period from 1995 to *** spite of the constraint for better environmental defence and the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals(SDGs),this paper introduces an empirical approach utilizing the Panel NARDL methodology to investigate the asymmetrical connections between carbon emissions and relevant exogenous ***,we utilize additional techniques,namely AMG and CCEMG,to enhance the robustness of our *** empirical findings reveal that positive shocks in economic complexity,FDI,environmental technology,and renewable energy reduce carbon emissions while negative shocks may result to elevated pollution levels in the ***,adverse shocks in economic complexity and FDI cause increased pollution in the long ***,the short-run coefficient signs are also similar to the longrun coefficient signs but different in significance level and *** has paved the way for a well-designed policy for leading clean-energy investment countries should focus on structural change,FDI,technology and renewable energy consumption.

关键词： Renewable energy Economic complexity NARDL Environmental technology SDGs Carbon emission FDI

Financial and non-financial determinants of the indebtedness of hospitals:the case of Poland

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Journal of Management Analytics 2024年第1期11卷 26-44页

作者： Katarzyna Miszczyńska Elżbieta Antczak department of banking Faculty of Economics and SociologyUniversity of LodzLodzPoland department of Spatial Econometrics Faculty of Economics and SociologyUniversity of LodzLodzPoland

The performance of Polish healthcare is still far from satisfactory,which is connected with growing indebtedness that adversely affects not only the development of healthcare but also the quality of medical services *** turn,the financial situation of hospitals depends on various indicators and the relationship between *** paper investigates the determinants of healthcare sector functioning in the context of hospitals’financial situation(dependent variable measured by total debt ratio).321 individual public units were examined between years 2007–*** specifically,the fixed effects panel data model in question measures and evaluates the impact of economic,regional,institutional,and social factors in determining the dependent *** study confirmed dependencies between financial and non-financial ratios along with their impact on the financial condition of studied *** management implications of our study lay the groundwork for the improvement of efficient resource management for public hospitals.

关键词： polish healthcare system hospitals’financial situation debt ratio panel data analysis

Collateral Monetary Policy,Regional Financial Development,and Nonfinancial Firms'Shadow banking Activities

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China & World Economy 2024年第5期32卷 166-196页

作者： Chao Yuan Hai Jiang Jiawen Ren Nikos Kapitsinis School of finance Guangdong University of Finance and EconomicsChina department of finance School of EconomicsJinan UniversityChina University of Copenhagen Denmark

The disparity in credit access between large firms and small and medium-sized enterprises contributes to the prevalence of shadow banking activities,where large,nonfinancial firms with high credit ratings have become new financial *** activities vary geographically and are afected significantly by collateral monetary *** paper examines the effect of collateral monetary policy,its reform,and regional financial development characteristics on large firms'shadow banking activities,with a focus on the medium-term lending facility(MLF),the primary collateral monetary policy instrument in *** results indicate that the MLF encouraged large firms'shadow banking ***,the MLF reform in 2018 mitigated this effect by broadening the range of acceptable *** financial development,such as a higher number of bank branches around firms,facilitated large firms'shadow banking activities and amplified the MLF's stimulating *** contrast,regional advancements in digital finance and market development limited both shadow banking activities and MLF's impact.

关键词： collateral monetary policy financial geography medium-term lending facilities shadow banking

FinTech Can Prevent the Formation of Zombie Firms:Evidence from China

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Social Sciences in China 2024年第1期45卷 111-133页

作者： Jiang Jiatong Yang Lu Yin Zhentao School of International Trade and Economics University of International Business and Economics School of Public Policy&Management Tsinghua University Institute of finance and banking Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

The interplay between financial technology(FinTech)and real economy firms has garnered considerable *** paper explores the relationship and mechanism between FinTech and corporate zombification using the data of Chinese A-share listed firms in China from 2011 to *** research findings reveal that FinTech significantly inhibits firm zombification,and FinTech breadth and depth both play a significant role in restraining firm *** exploration indicates that,on the one hand,FinTech reduces friction in the financial market,inhibiting firm zombification by improving firm investment efficiency,especially alleviating *** the other side,FinTech indirectly affects the technological investment,production,and operation of firms,thereby inhibiting firm zombification by increasing their total factor *** analysis suggests that the inhibitory effect of FinTech on corporate zombification is more pronounced for non-stateowned firms and small-sized firms,as well as those in manufacturing industries and highly competitive *** paper provides some novel evidence on evaluating the effect of FinTech on firms and also offers new insights for efficient governance of zombie firms.

关键词： FinTech zombie firms investment efficiency total factor productivity

SPARSE RECOVERY BASED ON THE GENERALIZED ERROR FUNCTION

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Journal of Computational Mathematics 2024年第3期42卷 679-704页

作者： Zhiyong Zhou department of Statistics and Data Science and Institute of Digital FinanceHangzhou City UniversityHangzhou 310015China

In this paper,we offer a new sparse recovery strategy based on the generalized error *** introduced penalty function involves both the shape and the scale parameters,making it extremely *** both constrained and unconstrained models,the theoretical analysis results in terms of the null space property,the spherical section property and the restricted invertibility factor are *** practical algorithms via both the iteratively reweighted■_(1)and the difference of convex functions algorithms are *** experiments are carried out to demonstrate the benefits of the suggested approach in a variety of *** practical application in magnetic resonance imaging(MRI)reconstruction is also investigated.

关键词： Sparse recovery Generalized error function Nonconvex regularization Itera-tive reweighted Li Difference of convex functions algorithms

Digital economy and carbon dioxide emissions:Examining the role of threshold variables

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 389-400页

作者： Qiang Wang Jiayi Sun Ugur Korkut Pata Rongrong Li Mustafa Tevfik Kartal School of Economics and Management China University of Petroleum(East China)Qingdao 266580China Osmaniye Korkut Ata University Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences Department of EconomicsMerkez80000 OsmaniyeTurkey department of banking and finance European University of LefkeLefkeNorthern CyprusTR-10 MersinTürkiye Adnan Kassar School of Business Lebanese American UniversityBeirutLebanon department of Economics and Management Khazar UniversityBakuAzerbaijan

Considering that previous literature has mainly focused on the impact of the digital economy(DE)on environmental degradation,ignoring the role of natural resources,this study uses two key factors(natural resource rent and anticorruption regulation)as threshold variables to reveal the effect of natural resources on the association between DE and carbon dioxide(CO_(2))*** doing so,the study covers 97 countries,uses annual data between 2003 and 2019,and applies a panel threshold *** outcomes present that the influence of the DE on CO_(2)emissions has a single-threshold effect(i.e.,there is an inverted U-shaped link between the DE and CO_(2)emissions)when natural resource rent is the threshold ***,the DE significantly increases CO_(2)emissions when the natural resource rent is at a low-to-medium level,but the DE suppresses CO_(2)emissions growth when natural resource rent exceeds the ***,the DE drives overall CO_(2)emissions growth when anticorruption regulation is the threshold variable and there are double thresholds for its impact on CO_(2)***,a rise in anticorruption regulation initially exacerbates the contribution of DE impact on CO_(2)emissions and then weakens it over *** on the results,the study proposes various implications,such as formulating a DE development strategy,considering natural resources in the development of the DE,and strengthening anti-corruption efforts in the field of environmental protection.

关键词： Digital economy Natural resource rent Anticorruption regulation CO_(2)emissions Threshold regression