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Predicting Hurricane Evacuation Decisions with Interpretable Machine Learning Methods

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2024年第1期15卷 134-148页

作者： Yuran Sun Shih‑Kai Huang Xilei Zhao department of Civil and Coastal Engineering University of FloridaGainesvilleFL 32611USA department of Emergency Management and Public administration Jacksonville State UniversityJacksonvilleAL 36265USA

Facing the escalating effects of climate change,it is critical to improve the prediction and understanding of the hurricane evacuation decisions made by households in order to enhance emergency *** studies in this area often have relied on psychology-driven linear models,which frequently exhibited limitations in *** present study proposed a novel interpretable machine learning approach to predict household-level evacuation decisions by leveraging easily accessible demographic and resource-related predictors,compared to existing models that mainly rely on psychological *** enhanced logistic regression model(that is,an interpretable machine learning approach) was developed for accurate predictions by automatically accounting for nonlinearities and interactions(that is,univariate and bivariate threshold effects).Specifically,nonlinearity and interaction detection were enabled by low-depth decision trees,which offer transparent model structure and robustness.A survey dataset collected in the aftermath of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,two of the most intense tropical storms of the last two decades,was employed to test the new *** findings show that,when predicting the households’ evacuation decisions,the enhanced logistic regression model outperformed previous linear models in terms of both model fit and predictive *** outcome suggests that our proposed methodology could provide a new tool and framework for emergency management authorities to improve the prediction of evacuation traffic demands in a timely and accurate manner.

关键词： Artifcial Intelligence(AI) Decision-making modeling Hurricane evacuation Interpretable machine learning Nonlinearity and interaction detection

Whether to Abolish or Introduce Dual Regulation as Trade and Environmental Policy?

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China & World Economy 2024年第1期32卷 57-95页

作者： Yoshihiro Hamaguchi department of Economics Faculty of Economics and Business AdministrationKyoto University of Advanced ScienceJapan

China,which has already introduced an environmental tax in an effort to decarbonize,has recently begun emissions trading and is using two environmental policies in tandem,but there are concerns about the impact on growth and *** and environmental policies affect firms'entry and exit,resulting in changes in aggregate productivity and pollution *** study compares the impacts of single regulation and dual regulation on welfare,using a research-and-development based growth model with heterogeneous *** single regulation,the cleansing effect of trade liberalization could be *** dual regulation,trade liberalization decreases pollution and improves average productivity whereas decreasing total permits reduces *** the perspective of improving welfare it is desirable to choose dual regulation because trade liberalization can reduce total pollution emissions via the cleansing effect of trade liberalization.

关键词： dual regulation heterogeneous firm Porter hypothesis research and development difficulty trade liberalization

Association of complement components with risk of colorectal cancer:A systematic review and meta-analysis

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World Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology 2024年第5期16卷 2168-2180页

作者： Xiao-Lin Zhu Lu Zhang Su-Xia Qi department of Gastroenterology Qingdao Municipal HospitalQingdao 266071Shandong ProvinceChina department of Medical administration Qingdao Municipal HospitalQingdao 266071Shandong ProvinceChina

BACKGROUND Complement components could contribute to the tumor microenvironment and the systemic immune ***,their role in colorectal cancer(CRC)remains a contentious *** To elucidate the relationship between complement components and CRC risk and clinical *** Searches were conducted in PubMed,the Cochrane Library,and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure database until June 1,*** included cohort studies encompassing participants aged≥18 years,investigating the association between complement components and *** studies were of moderate quality or above,as determined by the Agency for Healthcare Research and *** meta-analysis employed fixed-effects or random-effects models based on the I^(2)test,utilizing risk ratio(RR)and their corresponding 95%confidence interval(CI)for *** and subgroup analyses were performed to validate the robustness of the collective estimates and identify the source of *** Data from 15 studies,comprising 1631 participants that met the inclusion criteria,were included in the *** findings indicated that protein levels of cluster of differentiation 46(CD46)(RR=3.66,95%CI:1.75-7.64,P<0.001),CD59(RR=2.86,95%CI:1.36-6.01,P=0.005),and component 1(C1)(RR=5.88,95%CI:1.75-19.73,P=0.004)and serum levels of C3(standardized mean difference=1.82,95%CI:0.06-3.58,P=0.040)were significantly elevated in patients with CRC compared to healthy *** expression of CD55 or CD59 was associated with a higher incidence of lymph node metastasis,whereas strong CD46 expression correlated with a higher incidence of tumor differentiation compared to low CD46 expression(P<0.05 for all).Although specific pooled results demonstrated notable heterogeneity,subgroup analyses pointed to regional differences as the primary source of inconsistency among the *** Our analysis underscores that increased levels of specific complement components are

关键词： Complement components Colorectal cancer Lymph node metastasis Systematic review Meta-analysis

Testing the LCC hypothesis by considering environmental sustainability and economic development:Role of green energy and resource management

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 419-430页

作者： Sunil Tiwari Syed Ali Raza Shiv Kumar Gupta Irum Shahzadi Mahendra Babu Kuruva department of Tourism Studies School of Business StudiesCentral University of KeralaIndia department of Business administration IQRA UniversityKarachi 75300Pakistan Centre for Mountain Tourism and Hospitality Studies HNB Garhwal Central UniversitySrinagarUttarakhand 246174India department of Production Engineering São Paulo State University(UNESP)BauruBrazil department of Business administration IQRA University Karachi-75300Pakistan department of Business Management HNB Garhwal Central UniversitySrinagar GarhwalUttarakhand 246174India

This study aims to demystify the role of green energy and green technology in establishing the nexus between behavioural intentions of tourists,technologies,and digital payments by using Perceived value(PV),Compatibility(CO),Perceived Enjoyment(PE),and Social Influence(SI)as a predictor variables,Trust(TR)and Satisfaction(SA)as a mediating variables and Behavioural Intentions(BI)as an outcome *** the empirical estimation,we employ smart PLS-SEM,TAM(Technology Acceptance Model)and SPSS and Tested the LCC *** findings suggest that green energy and perceived value have the highest positive impact on tourists’trust towards digital payments followed by compatibility,social influence and perceived ***,tourists’satisfaction and green technology is one of the important determinants of choosing any digital mode of payment,is mostly influence by perceived value,perceived enjoyment,compatibility and social ***,if we choose between trust and satisfaction,trust plays a significant role in exploring the behavioural intentions of tourists about green energy and green technology followed by tourists’*** addition,Tourists’trust and satisfaction are highly correlated and influence each *** study offers novel policy implications in terms of use of green technology and green energy in enhancing trust and satisfaction of tourists in order to deeper understanding of different dimensions of digital payments and M-wallets,and allowing them to explore the long-term value inherent of digital payments and M-wallets.

关键词： Digital payment Green technology Green energy Tourism LCC hypothesis

Editor-in-Chief articles of choice and comments from January to June 2024

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World Journal of Gastroenterology 2024年第34期30卷 3875-3882页

作者： Andrzej S Tarnawski department of Gastroenterology Research University of California Irvine and the Veterans Administration Long Beach Healthcare SystemLong BeachCA 90822United States

As the Editor-in-Chief of the World Journal of Gastroenterology,I carefully review all articles every week before a new issue’s online publication,including the title,clinical and research importance,originality,novelty,and ratings by the peer *** on this review,I select the papers of choice and suggest pertinent changes(e.g.,in the title or text)to the company editors responsible for *** process,while time-consuming,is essential for assuring the quality of publications and highlighting important articles that readers may revisit.

关键词： Papers of choice Weekly review Suggested changes/revisions Hepatocellular carcinoma Pancreatic cancer Liver cirrhosis Liver injury Gastric cancer Colorectal cancer Inflammatory bowel diseases

Environmental Conditions Conducive to the Formation of Multiple Tropical Cyclones over the Western North Pacific

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第10期41卷 2027-2042页

作者： Yining GU Ruifen ZHAN Xiaomeng LI department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences/Institute of Atmospheric Sciences Fudan University CMA-FDU Joint Laboratory of Marine Meteorology Institute of Desert and Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

There is limited understanding regarding the formation of multiple tropical cyclones(MTCs). This study explores the environmental conditions conducive to MTC formation by objectively determining the atmospheric circulation patterns favorable for MTC formation over the western North Pacific. Based on 199 MTC events occurring from June to October 1980–2020, four distinct circulation patterns are identified: the monsoon trough(MT) pattern, accounting for 40.3% of occurrences, the confluence zone(CON) pattern at 26.2%, the easterly wave(EW) pattern at 17.8%, and the monsoon gyre(MG) pattern at 15.7%. The MT pattern mainly arises from the interaction between the subtropical high and the monsoon trough, with MTCs forming along the monsoon trough and its flanks. The CON pattern is affected by the subtropical high,the South Asian high, and the monsoon trough, with MTCs emerging at the confluence zone where the prevailing southwesterly and southeasterly flows converge. The EW pattern is dominated by easterly flows, with MTCs developing along the easterly wave train. MTCs in the MG pattern arise within a monsoon vortex characterized by strong southwesterly flows. A quantitative analysis further indicates that MTC formation in the MT pattern is primarily governed by mid-level vertical velocity and low-level vorticity, while mid-level humidity and vertical velocity are significantly important in the other patterns. The meridional shear and convergence of zonal winds are essential in converting barotropic energy from the basic flows to disturbance kinetic energy, acting as the primary source for eddy kinetic energy growth.

关键词： barotropic energy conversion circulation pattern monsoon trough multiple tropical cyclones western North Pacific

Implication of machine learning techniques to forecast the electricity price and carbon emission:Evidence from a hot region

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 259-271页

作者： Suleman Sarwar Ghazala Aziz Aviral Kumar Tiwari department of Finance and Economics College of BusinessUniversity of JeddahJeddahSaudi Arabia department of Business administration College of Administrative and Financial SciencesSaudi Electronic UniversityJeddahSaudi Arabia Indian Institute of Management BodhgayaIndia

The current study examines the significant determinants of electricity consumption and identifies an appropriate model to forecast the electricity price *** main contribution is focused on eastern region of Saudi Arabia,a relatively hottest geographical area full of energy resources but with different electricity consumption *** relative irrelevance of temperature as predicting factor of electricity consumption is quite surprising and contradicts the previous *** the eastern region,electricity price has negative association with electricity *** comparing traditional and machine learning,it is found that machine learning techniques offer better *** the machine learning techniques,the support vector machine has the lowest errors in forecasting the electricity ***,the support vector machine approach is used to forecast the trend of carbon emissions caused by electricity *** findings have policy implications and offer valuable suggestions to policymakers while addressing the determinants of electricity consumption and forecasting electricity prices.

关键词： Electricity consumption Carbon emission Artificial neural network Support vector machine Saudi Arabia

Importance of dietary supplementation of soluble and insoluble fibers to sows subjected to high ambient temperatures during late gestation and effects on lactation performance

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Animal Nutrition 2024年第1期16卷 73-83页

作者： Seung Min Oh Abdolreza Hosseindoust Sang Hun Ha Jun Young Mun Joseph Moturi Habeeb Tajudeen Yo Han Choi Su Hyup Lee Jin Soo Kim Gyeongbuk Livestock Research Institute department of Animal Industry Convergence Kangwon National University Swine Division National Institute of Animal Science Rural Development Administration department of Swine Science Korea National University of Agriculture and Fisheries

Heat stress adversely affects sows' performance, which can be improved by applying proper nutritional strategies. This study was conducted to investigate the interactive effects of dietary fiber levels and sources on sows' reproductive performance, metabolic response during gestation, and the carry-over influence on litter performance in the lactation period during heat stress(average room temperature of 27.1°C). Fifty-four multiparous sows(Landrace × Yorkshire; initial body weight of 236.3 ± 16 kg; 2, 3and 4 parities) at d 90 of gestation were assigned to a 2 × 3 factorial arrangement(9 sows/treatment),involving 2 dietary fiber levels(4.5% and 6% crude fiber) and 3 dietary fiber sources(wheat bran [WB],palm kernel meal [PK], and beet pulp [BP]). Sows fed the BP diet had highest(P < 0.01) feed intake and constipation index and lowest(P < 0.01) farrowing duration. Piglet weight(P = 0.041) and litter weight(P < 0.01) at weaning were higher in sows in the BP treatment compared to PK treatment. Sows in the BP treatment showed the greatest(P < 0.01) digestibility of crude protein and neutral detergent fiber. The fecal concentration of acetate was the lowest(P < 0.01) in the PK treatment. Total short-chain fatty acid production was increased in the WB and BP treatments compared with the PK. Sows in the BP treatment showed the lowest(P = 0.036) hair cortisol. The blood insulin concentration of sows was higher(P = 0.026) in the high fiber(6%) treatment compared with the low fiber(4.5%) treatment at 90 min and120 min after the meal. The concentration of phthalic acid, succinic acid, phenylethylamine, hydrocinnamic acid, iron, linoleic acid, glycerol, ketone, and formamide were increased(P < 0.05) in the BP treatment compared with the WB. The BP treatment with high soluble fiber content improved the constipation index, farrowing duration, and litter performance, while high insoluble fibers increased sows comfort and reduced stress factors including respiratory rate and rectal

关键词： Soluble fiber Insoluble fiber Beet pulp Wheat bran Palm kernel Metabolites

Oil revenue and production cost disconnect and its impact on the environment:Economic globalization in Asia-Pacific economic cooperation countries

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Geoscience Frontiers 2024年第3期15卷 14-30页

作者： Zhou Li Sager Alharthi Business School The University of New South WalesSydneyAustralia Business administration department College of Administrative and Financial SciencesSaudi Electronic UniversityJeddahKingdom of Saudi Arabia

The global economy relies heavily on oil production,but it is not without *** the period of economic globalization,the revenue and costs associated with oil production have become disjointed,which has had a detrimental effect on the *** a result,environmental protection has been compromised,environmental regulations have been weakened,natural resources have been exploited,and climate change has been *** study examines the impact of revenue minus the production cost of oil,energy use,and shadow economy on environmental degradation in APEC countries from 1991 to 2020,using the economic globalization index as a moderating *** result explains that revenue minus the oil production cost and the shadow economy are negatively associated with environmental *** use and economic globalization are positively associated with environmental degradation in APEC *** minus the production cost of oil and shadow economy improve the *** use and economic globalization degrade the environment in APEC *** are encouraged to advance technologies and upgrade infrastructure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions;also,promoting energy-efficient practices in other sectors,like transportation and manufacturing,could contribute to a healthier environment.

关键词： Greenhouse gas emissions Revenue minus production cost of oil Economic globalization Shadow economy APEC countries