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Index for climate change adaptation in China and its application

Advances in climate change Research 2021年第5期12卷 723-733页

作者： FU Lin CAO Ying KUANG Shu-Ya GUO Hao National Center for climate change Strategy and International Cooperation Beijing100035China Institute of climate change and Sustainable Development Tsinghua UniversityBeijing100084China

With the increasing awareness of the risks and impacts of climate change, scholars tend to pay more attention to the applications of indicators, which access the effectiveness of climate change adaptation. This study aims to evaluate the overall progress of climate change adaptation in China during 2010–2018 in a quantitative manner. The Index for climate change Adaptation in China (ICCAC) has been thus developed by adopting the analytic hierarchy process weighting and expert scoring method. Namely, ICCAC is composed of national climate change impacts, adaptation actions in key sectors, adaptation progress in key sectors, and the national adaptation policy framework. Overall, the ICCAC and its four sub-indexes increased significantly from 2010 to 2018, on a yearly-basis. Each sub-index implied that the socio-economic impacts caused by climate change in China have been alleviated gradually;specifically, the mainstream endeavor of key sectors has witnessed remarkable progress, however, it is worth noting that the gap between individual adaptation actions and policies still exists;the implementation effect of policies in key sectors is not as affluent as that of actions;the current adaptation endeavor in key areas is still closely related to the mainstream business of corresponding competent ministries rather than adaptation-aimed actions;the national adaptation policy framework has been primarily formed, but there are still some deficiencies. As a result, the gap in China's adaptation process could be mainly manifested in the following five aspects: i) adaptation effectiveness assessment in forestry and urban infrastructure is urgently needed;ii) policies in marine and water resources sectors need structural reforms;iii) evaluation criteria for national adaptation are not necessarily sufficient;iv) the improvement of adaptive management efficiency has stagnated recently;and v) the adaptation works of relevant Ministries should be coordinated and put forward the corres

关键词： climate change Adaptation Index Evaluation Risk assessment Policy recommendation

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risks and Influences of climate Hazards for Agro-Pastoral Development and Strategies Adopted by Agro-Pastoralist Communities in the Bougouni District, Mali

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American Journal of climate change 2023年第2期12卷 244-267页

作者： Tidiani Sanogo Koudzo Sokemawu Moussa Karembe West African Science Service Center on climate change and Adapted Land Use WASCAL Lomé Togo drp climate change and disaster risks management University of Lomé Lomé Togo Research Laboratory on the Dynamics of Environments and Societies Department of Geography University of Lomé Lomé Togo University of Technic and Technology Sciences of Bamako Tropical Ecology Laboratory Bamako Mali

In the southwest of Mali, pastoral resources play an important role in the production and reproduction of livestock. These pastoral resources are very sensitive to climatic hazards and negatively affected their availability in quantity and quality. The main objective of this study was to analyze the risks and influences of climate hazards on pastoral resources and the strategies taken by agropastoralists to cope with them. To achieve this objective, meteorological data trends from 1950 to 2022 were analyzed. The socio-economic data were collected through a semi-structured survey administered to 404 head households, from focus groups through discussion with local stakeholders by using climatic risks matrix. The results obtained indicate a concordance between agropastoralists perception on climate change and meteorological observations concerning the decrease of rainfall (−213 mm;63.3%), the increase of maximum and minimum temperature (+1.33˚C, +1.24˚C;93.1%), and the increase of wind speed (+0.59 m/s;97%) over the past 70 years. Respondents noted a deterioration in the conditions of pastoral resources due to climatic hazards compared to the last 40 years (44.8% for watering points;23.5% for pastures;63.1% for salty lands). Agro pastoralists have adopted measures that allow them to be resilient. These include the collection and storage of crop residues (49.5%), regular watering of animals (39.6%), changing of animals rhythms driving (35.9%), protection of pruning species (31.7%), and concerted reforestation (37.9%). Climatic risk-related hazards constitute a real threat to pastorals resources in the district of Bougouni.

关键词： Focus Groups Discussion Perception on climate change Meteorological Observations Pastoral Resources Pruning Species

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Typhoon Risk Perception: A Case Study of Typhoon Lekima in China

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2022年第2期13卷 261-274页

作者： Jiting Tang Saini Yang Yimeng Liu Kezhen Yao Guofu Wang Key Laboratory of Environmental change and Natural disaster Ministry of EducationBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China School of National Safety and Emergency management Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China Academy of disaster Reduction and Emergency management Faculty of Geographical ScienceBeijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China National climate Center Beijing 100081China

The typhoon is one major threat to human societies and natural ecosystems, and its risk perception is crucial for contextualizing and managing disaster risks in different social settings. Social media data are a new data source for studying risk perception, because such data are timely, widely distributed, and sensitive to ***, few studies have focused on crowd sensitivity variation in social media data-based typhoon risk perception. Based on the regional disaster system theory, a framework of analysis for crowd risk perception was established to explore the feasibility of using social media data for typhoon risk perception analysis and crowd sensitivity variation. The goal was to quantitatively analyze the impact of hazard intensity and social and geographical environments on risk perception and its variation among population groups. Taking the Sina Weibo data during Typhoon Lekima of 2019 as an example, we found that:(1)Typhoon Lekima-related Weibo public attention changed in accordance with the evolution of the typhoon track and the number of Weibo posts shows a significantly positive correlation with disaster losses, while socioeconomic factors,including population, gross domestic product, and land area, are not explanatory factors of the spatial distribution of disaster-related Weibo posts;(2) Females, nonlocals with travel plans, and people living in areas with high hazard intensity, low elevation, or near waterbodies affected by Lekima paid more attention to the typhoon disaster;and(3)Descriptions of rainfall intensity by females are closer to the meteorological observation data.

关键词： China Crowd sensitivity Regional disaster system theory Risk perception Social media Typhoon Lekima

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Drought Monitoring and Assessment of climate Parameters Variability in Koutiala and San Districts, Mali

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American Journal of climate change 2022年第3期11卷 230-249页

作者： Diarra Doukoro Georges Abbevi Abbey Traore Kalifa West African Science Service Center on climate change and Adapted Land Use WASCAL Lome Togo drp climate change disaster Risk management University of Lomé Lome Togo Department of Geography University of Lomé Lome Togo Department of Agronomy Agricultural Enterprises Management University of Lomé Lome Togo Institute of Rural Economy in Sotuba Bamako Mali

In Mali, the annual temperature, rainfall, and evapotranspiration are high variables. Their distributions are unevenly spread from north to south. climate change strengthens to increase air temperature and evapotranspiration. It also increases the intense rainstorms and the risk of drought associated heat waves. Drought is considered a natural disaster among all hydrologic extremes. It causes severe damage to the environment, agriculture, and livelihoods relying on water resources. The present study evaluated the variation of drought indices from 1989 to 2019 in Koutiala and San districts, respectively. Therefore, the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was applied. Hence, the Mann-Kendall (MK) test was used and for 12-month time-scales. Trend analysis of monthly precipitation, temperature, and evapotranspiration has been done by using the MK test. Based on the analysis result, the climate of the Koutiala and San districts has been classified as moderate to severe drought category. However, this result clearly shows SPEI pattern changes in both districts. The monthly precipitation showed a significant decreasing trend in Koutiala and San districts. In comparison, the monthly temperature and evapotranspiration displayed an increasing trend in both districts.

关键词： Drought climate Parameters SPEI Trend Mann-Kendall Koutiala San Mali

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Systemic risks: A Homomorphic Approach on the Basis of Complexity Science

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2018年第3期9卷 292-305页

作者： Klaus Lucas Ortwin Renn Carlo Jaeger Saini Yang Institute of Technical Thermodynamics Aachen University Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies (IASS) Economic and Social Science Department University of Stuttgart Academy of disaster Reduction and Emergency management School of Geography Beijing Normal University Global climate Forum Key Laboratory of Environmental change and Natural disasters Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University

Although the notion of systemic risk gained prominence with respect to financial systems, it is a generic term that refers to risks of increasing importance in many domains—risks that cannot be tackled by conventional techniques of risk management and governance. We build on a domain-overarching definition of systemic risks by highlighting crucial properties that distinguish them from conventional risks and plain disasters. References to typical examples from various domains are included. Common features of systemic risks in different domains—such as the role of agents and emergence phenomena, tipping and cascading, parameters indicating instability, and historicity—turn out to be more than noncommittal empirical observations. Rather these features can be related to fundamental theory for relatively simple and well-understood systems in physics and chemistry. A crucial mechanism is the breakdown of macroscopic patterns of whole systems due to feedback reinforcing actions of agents on the microlevel, where the reinforcement is triggered by boundary conditions moving beyond critical tipping *** the whole article, emphasis is placed on the role of complexity science as a basis for unifying the phenomena of systemic risks in widely different domains.

关键词： Complexity science Integrated risk governance Multiagent modeling Systemic risks

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Mapping climate Services for disaster Risk management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

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American Journal of climate change 2024年第2期13卷 314-360页

作者： Aboubacar Issaka Ousman Gaoh Wolfram Laube Georges Abbevi Abbey Moussa Waongo West African Science Service Centre on climate change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Accra Ghana Department of Geography-drp-climate change and disaster Risk management University of Lom Lom Togo Department of Political and Cultural change Centre for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn Bonn Germany Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness management School of Agriculture University of Lom Lom Togo Department of Training and Research Regional Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET) Niamey Niger

climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect g

关键词： climate Services disaster Risk management Policy Process Science-Policy Interface Institutional Analysis

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Coastline Dynamics Analysis in Dakar Region, Senegal from 1990 to 2040

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American Journal of climate change 2022年第2期11卷 23-36页

作者： Ibrahima Pouye Dieudonné Pessièzoum Adjoussi Jacques André Ndione Amadou Sall Kouami Dodji Adjaho Muhammad Leroy Albert Gomez West African Science Service Center on climate change and Adapted Land Use WASCAL Togo University of Lomé drp climate change disaster Risk management Lomé Togo Department of Geography University of Lomé Lomé Togo Académie Nationale des Sciences et Techniques du Sénégal (ANSTS) Dakar Senegal Centre de Suivi Ecologique Dakar Senegal

In the context of climate change, the study of shoreline dynamics is a critical issue concerning economic losses in coastal countries. Therefore, since it is an important parameter to study the impacts of climate change in coastal areas, scientists are more interested in littoral studies seeking deep existential knowledge. This study aims to depict separately the coastal dynamics from 1990 to 2020 in Dakar region. The difference in terms of geologic, geomorphologic and hydrodynamic conditions within the three different coasts of Dakar and the prediction until 2040 have been taken into account in comparison to the previous studies. To achieve this purpose, the Geographic Information System (GIS) approach which is among the most current methods to determine the coastline dynamics is used. Historical Landsat images from the USGS, QGIS 3.12.0, Arc GIS 10.4 and DSAS software have been used for the Landsat images pre-processing and coastline dynamic computation. After obtaining the coastline velocity rate, some predictions of future coastline position have been estimated using the formula of velocity. The results showed that the Dakar region is characterized by an average rate of retreat about −0.44 m/year on the northern coast. The western and southern coasts record respectively a rate of about 0.21 and −0.11 m/year. In 2030, the average rates of retreat of −4.4, 2.1 and −1.1 m/year were estimated respectively in the northern, western and southern coasts.

关键词： Coastline Dynamics DSAS Erosion Accretion Dakar Region

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Signifi cant Association Between Arctic Oscillation and Winter Wildfi res in Southern China

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2024年第5期15卷 820-830页

作者： Meng Meng Daoyi Gong Yunfei Lan Qichao Yao Lamei Shi Zhou Wang National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental change and Natural disaster Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Institute of disaster Risk Science Beijing Normal University Faculty of Geographical Science Beijing Normal University

The recent increase of regional wildfire occurrences has been associated with climate change. In this study, we investigated the association between the February to March wildfire points and burned area in the southern region of China(20°N–30°N and 105°E–115°E) and the simultaneous Arctic Oscillation(AO) index during 2001–2022 and 2001–2020, respectively. After removing the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole signals, time series of the regional mean fire points and burned area over the study area is significantly correlated with the AO index at-0.37 and-0.47, significant at the 0.1 level. Precipitation significantly aff ects wildfire variations. The positive AO could trigger a southeastward Rossby wave train and induce anomalous cyclone activity approximately located in the area encompassed by 15°N–27°N and 85°E–100°E. This outcome could help to enhance the southern branch trough and results in positive precipitation anomalies in southern China. This increasing moisture is conductive to reducing wildfire risks, vice versa. Our results are potentially useful for strengthening the understanding of the mechanisms of wildfire occurrences in southern China.

关键词： Arctic Oscillation climate change ENSO Southern China wildfires

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World Regionalization of climate change(1961–2010)

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2016年第3期7卷 216-226页

作者： Peijun Shi Shao Sun Daoyi Gong Tao Zhou State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology Beijing Normal University Key Laboratory of Environmental change and Natural disasters of Ministry of Education Beijing Normal University Academy of disaster Reduction and Emergency management Ministry of Civil Affairs & Ministry of Education

Traditional climate classification or regionalization characterizes the mean state of climate condition, which cannot meet the demand of addressing climate change currently. We have developed a climate change classification method, as well as the fundamental principles, an indicator system, and mapping techniques of climate change regionalization. This study used annual mean temperature and total precipitation as climatic indices, and linear trend and variation change as change indices to characterize climate change quantitatively. The study has proposed a scheme for world climate change regionalization based on a half century of climate data(1961–2010). Level-I regionalization divides the world into 12 tendency zones based on the linear trend of climate, level-II regionalization resulted in 28 fluctuation regions based on the variation change of climate. climate change regionalization provides a scientific basis for countries and regions to develop plans for adapting to climate change, especially for managing climate-related disaster or environmental risks.

关键词： climate change Regionalization Temperature Precipitation Tendency Fluctuation World

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Drought Adaptation and Coping Strategies Among the Turkana Pastoralists of Northern Kenya

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International Journal of disaster Risk Science 2015年第3期6卷 295-309页

作者： Francis Opiyo Oliver Wasonga Moses Nyangito Janpeter Schilling Richard Munang Department of Land Resource management and Agricultural Technology University of Nairobi United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) Global Policy Centre International Alert EnvironmentClimate Change and Security Program United Nations Environment Programme(UNEP) Regional Office for Africa

This study highlights drought characteristics and the many responses to drought stresses employed by Turkana pastoralists of northwestern Kenya. Multiple data sources, including socioeconomic interviews with 302 households, focus group discussions, and informal interviews with pastoralists were used to capture various aspects of drought and drought adaptation and coping *** precipitation index derived from long-term rainfall data obtained from the Kenya Meteorological Service was used to quantify different degrees of drought intensity between 1950 and 2012. Results revealed that extreme drought events were increasingly frequent, and have impacted negatively on pastoral livelihoods. In order to adapt to or cope with climatic anomalies, households are using a variety of strategies. In addition to the traditional short-term coping mechanisms, the long-term adaptation strategies used include diversification of livelihood sources; livestock mobility to track forage and water resources;diversification of herd composition to benefit from the varied drought and disease tolerance, as well as fecundity of diverse livestock species; and sending children to school for formal education as a long term investment expected to pay back through income from employment. Policies anddevelopment interventions that reduce risks, diminish livelihood constraints, and expand opportunities for increased household resilience to drought are critical complements to the existing pastoral strategies.

关键词： Adaptive capacity climate change Pastoralism Resilience Turkana

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