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Forecast Hesitancy: Why are People Reluctant to Believe, Accept, or Respond to Various Weather, Water, and Climate Hazard-Related Forecasts?

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第4期12卷 600-609页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Gregory E.Pierce consortium for Capacity Building(CCB) Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research(INSTAAR)University of ColoradoBoulderCO80301USA

Current discussions of the social phenomenon of“vaccine hesitancy”with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological ***,that is,provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively *** exaggeration,just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual,community,and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable,relatively near-term climate,water,or weather *** for such hesitancy(for vaccine and forecast use alike)include—among others—lack of trust in the science,lack of confidence in government,and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public *** such,a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often *** better understanding will facilitate,where necessary,targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of“forecast hesitancy.”First,this article focuses on incidents of“vaccine hesitancy”that,for various reasons,people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available,and confirmed efficacious,Covid-19 *** of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021,despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the ***,the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Forecast Forecast hesitancy Hesitancy Hydromet hazards vaccine hesitancy

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Long-primed germinal centres with enduring affinity maturation and clonal migration

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四川生理科学杂志 2022年第9期44卷 1618-1618页

作者： Jeong Hyun Lee Center for Infectious Disease and vaccine Research La Jolla Institute for Immunology La Jolla CA USA consortium for hiv/aids vaccine development The Scripps Research Institute La Jolla CA USA IAVI Neutralizing Antibody Center The Scripps Research Institute La Jolla CA USA Department of Medicine Division of Infectious Diseases and Global Public Health University of California San Diego La Jolla CA USA Department of Immunology and Microbiology The Scripps Research Institute La Jolla CA USA Department of Integrative Structural and Computational Biology The Scripps Research Institute La Jolla CA USA Koch Institute for Integrative Cancer Research Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA Emory National Primate Research Center and Emory vaccine Center Emory University School of Medicine Atlanta GA USA Ragon Institute of Massachusetts General Hospital Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Harvard University Cambridge MA USA Department of Biological Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA Department of Materials Science and Engineering Massachusetts Institute of Technology Cambridge MA USA Howard Hughes Medical Institute Chevy Chase MD USA Tulane National Primate Research Center Tulane School of Medicine Covington LA USA Department of Surgery Laboratory for AIDS Vaccine Research & Development Duke University Medical Center Duke University Durham NC USA

Germinal centres are the engines of antibody evolution. Here, using human immunodeficiency virus (hiv) Env protein immunogen priming in rhesus monkeys followed by a long period without further immunization, we demonstrate germinal centre B (BGC) cells that last for at least 6 months. A 186-fold increase in BGC cells was present by week 10 compared with conventional immunization. Single-cell transcriptional profiling showed that both light- and dark-zone germinal centre states were sustained. Antibody somatic hypermutation of BGC cells continued to accumulate throughout the 29-week priming period, with evidence of selective pressure. Env-binding BGC cells were still 49-fold above baseline at 29 weeks, which suggests that they could remain active for even longer periods of time. High titres of hiv-neutralizing antibodies were generated after a single booster immunization. Fully glycosylated hiv trimer protein is a complex antigen, posing considerable immunodominance challenges for B cells1,2. Memory B cells generated under these long priming conditions had higher levels of antibody somatic hypermutation, and both memory B cells and antibodies were more likely to recognize non-immunodominant epitopes. Numerous BGC cell lineage phylogenies spanning more than the 6-month germinal centre period were identified, demonstrating continuous germinal centre activity and selection for at least 191 days with no further antigen exposure. A long-prime, slow-delivery (12 days) immunization approach holds promise for difficult vaccine targets and suggests that patience can have great value for tuning of germinal centres to maximize antibody responses.

关键词： sustained centre holds

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Skin as an immune organ and the site of biomimetic,non-invasive vaccination

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Medicine in Novel Technology and Devices 2022年第4期16卷 408-419页

作者： Amla Chopra Archi Gupta Dayalbagh Educational Institute DayalbaghAgra282005India consortium Biosolutions and Research Center DayalbaghAgra282005India

A vaccine must be sufficiently stable and cause no discernible discomfort or organ damage both during administration and at the injection site. To achieve these aims, the skin offers a viable platform, provided, antigens mustpenetrate the skin barrier and then exit the skin through deformable yet stable vesicular carriers to enter thelymphatic system. Even after such antigen delivery into the body, the intended immune response can only beattained if the following immune response has previously been correctly understood at the cellular and molecularlevels. Here we review, the underlying immunological decision tree that has several branching points to generatean optimal immune response. The tolerance versus immunity decision during and after the delivery of an antigen viaskin depends on i) antigen/pathogen application effects on the cutaneous microenvironment, ii) the variousinvolved cells type (skin resident cells or directly the lymph node resident cells), and regulatory molecules. Theskin microenvironment alters due to skin perturbation. The skin is perturbed directly by the antigens/pathogenswhich activate the release of mediators and cytokines and thus trigger an autocrine and paracrine effect, or,indirectly via the antigen/pathogen influence on the commensal microorganisms on the skin (which helpmaintain skin homeostasis). The skin microenvironment changes by the mode of antigen *** cue from cutaneous immunology in vaccine delivery across intact skin may provide insight for future noninvasive vaccination suggesting a possible shift in the vaccination protocols and the essential paradigmrefinement.

关键词： Skin immunity-cellular orchestra Optimization-non-invasive delivery Techniques-skin antigen-delivery Vaccination

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EBV conference establishes goals for defining disease-related EBV subtypes for vaccine development

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癌症 2009年第12期28卷 1233-1235页

作者： Laurie Goodman The 2008 International Association for Research on Epstein-Barr virus and Associated Diseases (IARES) International Epstein-Barr Virus Genome consortium (IEGC) GuangzhouChina Goodman Writing & Editiug14 Overbrook Terrace NaticMA 01760 USA

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), a γ-herpesvirus, was identified more than four decades ago. It is a ubiquitous infectious agent that infects more than 90% of the world’s adult population. Primary EBV infection in most

关键词：疱疹病毒病毒感染单核细胞症状

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Studying the mixed transmission in a community with age heterogeneity: COVID-19 as a case study

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2022年第2期7卷 250-260页

作者： Xiaoying Wang Qing Han Jude Dzevela Kong Department of Mathematics Trent University PeterboroughONK9L 0G2Canada Africa-Canada Artificial Intelligence and Data Innovation consortium(ACADIC)Laboratory for Industrial and Applied Mathematics(LIAM)Department of Mathematics and Statistics York University TorontoONM3J 1P3Canada

COVID-19 has been prevalent worldwide for about 2 years now and has brought unprecedented challenges to our *** vaccines were available,the main disease intervention strategies were *** December 2020,in Ontario,Canada,vaccines were approved for administering to vulnerable individuals and gradually expanded to all individuals above the age of *** the vaccine coverage reached a satisfactory level among the eligible population,normal social activities resumed and schools reopened starting September ***,when schools reopen for in-person learning,children under the age of 12 are unvaccinated and are at higher risks of contracting the *** propose an age-stratified model based on the age and vaccine eligibility of the *** fit our model to the data in Ontario,Canada and obtain a good fitting *** results show that a relaxed between-group contact rate may trigger future epidemic waves more easily than an increased within-group contact *** increasing mixed contact rate of the older group quickly amplifies the daily incidence numbers for both groups whereas an increasing mixed contact rate of the younger group mainly leads to future waves in the younger group *** results indicate the importance of accelerating vaccine rollout for younger individuals in mitigating disease spread.

关键词： COVID-19 Age-stratified model Mixed social contact pattern Disease mitigation strategy

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Incidence and consequences of varicella in children treated for cancer in Guatemala

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2016年第3期12卷 320-326页

作者： Amy E.Caruso Brown Edwin J.Asturias Mario Melgar Federico A.Antillon-Klussmann Pamela Mettler Myron J.Levin Center for Bioethics and Humanities and Department of Pediatrics SUNY Upstate Medical University Center for Global Health and Department of Epidemiology Colorado School of Public HealthAuroraColoradoUSA National Unit of Pediatric Oncology Guatemala CityGuatemala Department of Biostatistics and Informatics Colorado Biostatistics ConsortiumColorado School of Public HealthAuroraColoradoUSA Section of Pediatric Infectious Diseases Department of PediatricsUniversity of Colorado Denver Anschutz Medical CampusAuroraColoradoUSA

Background:Varicella-zoster virus infection is associated with significant morbidity and mortality in immune-compromised children,despite treatment with antiviral *** varicella vaccine programs have significantly decreased this risk in many highincome countries,but in most low-income and middleincome countries,the burden of varicella in children treated for malignancy is poorly defi ***:We retrospectively reviewed records of children at the National Unit of Pediatric Oncology(UNOP)in Guatemala diagnosed with varicella between January 2009 and March 2013 in order to calculate incidence of varicella and evaluate morbidity,mortality,treatment interruption,and ***:Fifty-nine cases of varicella were *** was 23.4 cases per 1000 person-years(p-y).66.1%of cases occurred in children with leukemia(median age 5.2 years;interquantile range 3.4-7 years)and 41.0%of these occurred during maintenance *** of exposure was identified for 14/59(23.7%)*** were hospitalized(71.2%)and given intravenous acyclovir(64.4%).Eight(13.6%)children required critical care,and two(3.4%)died from disseminated varicella with multiorgan *** was delayed or omitted due to varicella in 50%.No signifi cant differences in outcomes based on nutritional and immunologic status were *** minimum average cost of treatment per episode was 598.75 ***:Varicella is a significant problem in children treated for cancer in Guatemala,where effective post-exposure prophylaxis is *** the absence of universal varicella vaccination,strategies to improve recognition of exposure and the future use of novel inactivated vaccines currently under investigation in clinical trials could mitigate this burden.

关键词： cancer developing countries immunocompromised host oncology varicella

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Modeling vaccination strategies with limited early COVID-19 vaccine access in low-and middle-income countries:A case study of Thailand

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2023年第4期8卷 1177-1189页

作者： Suparinthon Anupong Tanakorn Chantanasaro Chaiwat Wilasang Natcha CJitsuk Chayanin Sararat Kan Sornbundit Busara Pattanasiri Dhammika Leshan Wannigama Mohan Amarasiri Sudarat Chadsuthi Charin Modchang Biophysics Group Department of PhysicsFaculty of ScienceMahidol UniversityBangkok10400Thailand Center for Disease Modeling Faculty of ScienceMahidol UniversityBangkok10400Thailand Ratchaburi Learning Park King Mongkut’s University of Technology ThonburiRatchaburiThailand Department of Physics Faculty of Liberal Arts and ScienceKasetsart University Kamphaeng Saen CampusNakhon Pathom73140Thailand Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection Control Yamagata Prefectural Central HospitalYamagataJapan Department of Microbiology Faculty of MedicineChulalongkorn UniversityKing Chulalongkorn Memorial HospitalThai Red Cross SocietyBangkokThailand Center of Excellence in Antimicrobial Resistance and Stewardship Faculty of MedicineChulalongkorn UniversityBangkokThailand School of Medicine Faculty of Health and Medical SciencesThe University of Western AustraliaNedlandsWestern AustraliaAustralia Biofilms and Antimicrobial Resistance consortium of ODA Receiving Countries The University of SheffieldSheffieldUnited Kingdom Pathogen Hunter’s Research Collaborative Team Department of Infectious Diseases and Infection ControlYamagata Prefectural Central HospitalYamagataJapan Laboratory of Environmental Hygiene Department of Health ScienceSchool of Allied Health Sciences/Graduate School of Medical SciencesKitasato UniversityKitasatoSagamihara-MinamiKanagawa252-0373Japan Department of Physics Faculty of ScienceNaresuan UniversityPhitsanulok65000Thailand Centre of Excellence in Mathematics Ministry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok10400Thailand Thailand Center of Excellence in Physics Ministry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and Innovation328 Si Ayutthaya RoadBangkok10400Thailand

Low-and middle-income countries faced significant challenges in accessing COVID-19 vaccines during the early stages of the *** this study,we utilized an agestructured modeling approach to examine the implications of various vaccination strategies,vaccine prioritization,and vaccine rollout speeds in Thailand,an upper-middleincome country experiencing vaccine shortages during the early stages of the *** model directly compares the effectiveness of several vaccination strategies,including the heterologous vaccination where CoronaVac(CV)vaccine was administered as the first dose,followed by ChAdOx1 nCoV-19(AZ)vaccine as the second dose,under varying disease transmission *** found that the traditional AZ homologous vaccination was more effective than the CV homologous vaccination,regardless of disease transmission ***,combining CV and AZ vaccines via either parallel homologous or heterologous vaccinations was more effective than relying solely on AZ homologous ***,prioritizing vaccination for the elderly aged 60 years and above was the most effective way to reduce mortality when community transmission is *** the other hand,prioritizing workers aged 20e59 was most effective in lowering COVID-19 cases,irrespective of the transmission ***,despite the vaccine prioritization strategy,rapid vaccine rollout speeds were crucial in reducing COVID-19 infections and *** findings suggested that in low-and middle-income countries where early access to high-efficacy vaccines might be limited,obtaining any accessible vaccines as early as possible and using them in parallel with other higherefficacy vaccines might be a better strategy than waiting for and relying solely on higher-efficacy vaccines.

关键词： COVID-19 Low-and middle-income countries vaccine inequality Thailand

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Redefining pandemic preparedness:Multidisciplinary insights from the CERP modelling workshop in infectious diseases,workshop report

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Infectious Disease Modelling 2024年第2期9卷 501-518页

作者： Marta C.Nunes Edward Thommes Holger Fröhlich Antoine Flahault Julien Arino Marc Baguelin Matthew Biggerstaff Gaston Bizel-Bizellot Rebecca Borchering Giacomo Cacciapaglia Simon Cauchemez Alex Barbier-Chebbah Carsten Claussen Christine Choirat Monica Cojocaru Catherine Commaille-Chapus Chitin Hon Jude Kong Nicolas Lambert Katharina B.Lauer Thorsten Lehr Cédric Mahe Vincent Marechal Adel Mebarki Seyed Moghadas Rene Niehus Lulla Opatowski Francesco Parino Gery Pruvost Andreas Schuppert Rodolphe Thiébaut Andrea Thomas-Bachli Cecile Viboud Jianhong Wu Pascal Crépey Laurent Coudeville Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens(CERP) Hospices Civils de Lyon(HCL)and Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie(CIRI)Équipe SantéPubliqueÉpidémiologie etÉcologieÉvolutive des Maladies Infectieuses(PHE3ID)Inserm U1111CNRS UMR5308ENS de LyonUniversitéClaude Bernard Lyon 1LyonFrance South African Medical Research Council Vaccines&Infectious Diseases Analytics Research UnitFaculty of Health SciencesUniversity of the WitwatersrandJohannesburgSouth Africa New Products and Innovation(NPI) Sanofi Vaccines(Global)TorontoOntarioCanada Department of Mathematics and Statistics University of GuelphGuelphOntarioCanada Fraunhofer Institute for Algorithms and Scientific Computing(SCAI) Department of BioinformaticsSchloss BirlinghovenSankt AugustinGermany University of Bonn Bonn-Aachen International Center for IT(b-it)BonnGermany Institute of Global Health Faculty of MedicineUniversity of GenevaGenevaSwitzerland and Swiss School of Public HealthZürichSwitzerland Department of Mathematics University of ManitobaWinnipegManitobaCanada MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis School of Public HealthImperial College LondonLondonUK Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Department of Infectious Disease EpidemiologyLondon School of Hygiene&Tropical MedicineLondonUK National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases(NCIRD) US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention(CDC)AtlantaGAUSA Departement of Computational Biology Departement of Global HealthInstitut PasteurParisFrance Institut de Physique des Deux Infinis de Lyon(IP2I) UMR5822IN2P3/CNRSUniversitéClaude Bernard Lyon 1VilleurbanneFrance Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit Institut PasteurUniversitéParis CitéUMR2000 CNRSParisFrance Decision and Bayesian Computation Institut PasteurUniversitéParis CitéCNRS UMR 3571France Fraunhofer-Institute for Translational Medicine and Pharmacology HamburgGermany Institute of Global Health Faculty of MedicineUniversity of

In July 2023,the Center of Excellence in Respiratory Pathogens organized a two-day workshop on infectious diseases modelling and the lessons learnt from the Covid-19 *** report summarizes the rich discussions that occurred during the *** workshop participants discussed multisource data integration and highlighted the benefits of combining traditional surveillance with more novel data sources like mobility data,social media,and wastewater *** advancements were noted in the development of predictive models,with examples from various countries showcasing the use of machine learning and artificial intelligence in detecting and monitoring disease *** role of open collaboration between various stakeholders in modelling was stressed,advocating for the continuation of such partnerships beyond the pandemic.A major gap identified was the absence of a common international framework for data sharing,which is crucial for global pandemic ***,the workshop underscored the need for robust,adaptable modelling frameworks and the integration of different data sources and collaboration across sectors,as key elements in enhancing future pandemic response and preparedness.

关键词： Modelling Covid-19 Infectious diseases Pandemic preparedness Workshop

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Immunogenicity, safety, and reactogenicity of heterologous COVID-19 primary vaccination incorporating mRNA, viral-vector, and protein-adjuvant vaccines in the UK (Com-COV2): a single-blind, randomised, phase 2, non-inferiority trial

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四川生理科学杂志 2021年第10期43卷 1819-1819页

作者： Arabella S V Stuart Oxford vaccine Group Department of Paediatrics University of Oxford Oxford UK Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Oxford UK Statistics Modelling and Economics Department UK Health Security Agency London UK Immunisation and Countermeasures Division National Infection Service UK Health Security Agency London UK Public Health Scotland Glasgow Scotland UK UK Health Security Agency Porton Down Salisbury UK Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine Liverpool UK Department of Infection Immunity and Cardiovascular Disease University of Sheffield Sheffield UK Department of Infection and Tropical Medicine Sheffield Teaching Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Sheffield UK The Newcastle upon Tyne Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Newcastle upon Tyne UK Translational and Clinical Research Institute Newcastle University Newcastle UK NIHR Southampton Clinical Research Facility and Biomedical Research Centre University Hospital Southampton NHS Foundation Trust Southampton UK Faculty of Medicine and Institute for Life Sciences University of Southampton Southampton UK School of Population Health Sciences and School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine University of Bristol Bristol UK Department of Infection and NIHR BRC Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust London UK MRC Clinical Trials Unit University College London London UK Wellcome Centre for Human Genetics Nuffield Department of Medicine University of Oxford Oxford UK Oxford NIHR—Biomedical Research Centre Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust Oxford UK

Background:Given the importance of flexible use of different COVID-19 vaccines within the same schedule to facilitate rapid deployment,we studied mixed priming schedules incorporating an adenoviral-vectored vaccine(ChAdOx1 nCoV-19[ChAd],AstraZeneca),two mRNA vaccines(BNT162b2[BNT],Pfizer-BioNTech,and mRNA-1273[m1273],Moderna)and a nanoparticle vaccine containing SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and Matrix-M adjuvant(NVX-CoV2373[NVX],Novavax).

关键词： Pfizer schedule COV

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