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Mainstreaming the Full ENSO:Linking Present Weather and Future Climate

International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2022年第6期13卷 829-841页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Lino Naranjo-Diaz Qian Ye Gregory E.Pierce consortium for capacity building(CCB) University of Colorado BoulderBoulderCO 80301USA Integrated Risk Governance Program Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

In this article we propose that all countries that are striving to become a Weather-Ready Nation(WRN)would beneft greatly from including El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)-related research findings into their decision-making processes,not only when an El Niño or a La Niña forecast has been issued quasi-periodically.For an aspiring WRN,to beneft from ENSO information,such as disruptive or benefcial changes that could be foreseeably expected to occur in seasonal fow and in sub-seasonal hydrometeorological anomalies,requires its continuous mainstreaming about the status of the ENSO process into a WRN’s decision-making activities.The ENSO process provides a bridge between sub-seasonal weather anomalies and a sub-decadal climate phenomenon as well as a bridge between coping with weather extremes today and preparing for climate change-related hydrometeorological hazards in the future.ENSO extremes every few years provide a chance to evaluate a nation’s strategic and tactical responses to hydrometeorological hazard forecasts and disasters.Each successive ENSO extreme and its Neutral phase tests previously designed best practices.Involvement of today’s youth and young professionals on climate,water,and weather issues has been increasing and will do so in coming decades.Shifting awareness and attention to ENSO and away from ENSO extremes is crucial.The heightened urgency for understanding the full ENSO“cycle”especially by youth and young professionals today is because they will soon be in professional positions that enable them to advise decision makers about climate policy issues.Their understanding of the ENSO cycle is critically needed,as global warming is expected to continue to increase for the rest of the twentyfrst century.

关键词： ENSO WRN Hydromet Climate change Young professionals

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Disaster Risk Reduction Efforts in the Greater Horn of Africa

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2015年第1期6卷 49-61页

作者： Marie-Ange Baudoin Tsegay Wolde-Georgis consortium for capacity building Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) University of Colorado

This article assesses the current state of disaster risk reduction(DRR) in the Greater Horn of Africa(GHA),and focuses on interventions and policies to mitigate hydrometeorological risks. The research analyzes, as main case study, the program 'Regional Climate Prediction and Risk Reduction in the Greater Horn of Africa'funded by the Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance(USAID OFDA) in the early 2000 that targeted risk preparedness.The research method combines a desk review of relevant documents and research papers with surveys and interviews directed to key proponents of DRR across the GHA. Results highlight current strengths and weaknesses in the way DRR is implemented in the GHA. Significant improvements in the climate-forecasting capabilities in the GHA since the 2000 s are acknowledged, but the practice of DRR remains technology driven and impacts on the ground are limited. The key findings highlight the significant communication gaps that exist between the producers of climate information and their end users, the communities at risk. The article urges the establishment of bridges that connect climate experts, policymakers, and representatives of the local communities, and for the implementation of a feedback loop from forecast users to their producers, in order to strengthen risk resilience across the GHA.

关键词：气候变化灾难风险管理非洲的更大的角水象学的危险课学习了 Sub-Saharan 非洲

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Shades of Chaos: Lessons Learned About Lessons Learned About Forecasting El Nio and Its Impacts

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2015年第1期6卷 94-103页

作者： Michael H.Glantz consortium for capacity building (CCB) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) University of Colorado

The troubled forecast of El Nio’s onset in2014 requires an explanation as well as an open dialogue with the user community that depends on such an important forecast. A review of the forecasts on the Internet reflects two different perceptions about what transpired. The forecast community suggests they got it right, while the popular media suggests forecasters got it wrong. Why such a gap? The major El Nio that was alluded to by several organizations did not materialize when or even as expected. A science-fed media frenzy took place about an event considered in retrospect to have been an unusual borderline(weak) El Nio event, 'trickiest ever to forecast.'That is understandable, as the science of El Nio is still on a learning curve. But it suggests that the forecasting of El Nio’s onset is still in an experimental phase and not yet operational. Forecasting its onset(as a specific event)should be separated from forecasting its behavior and impacts(as a process) once the onset has been assured.Whenever a forecast is made, someone is responding to it.Therefore, such a distinction is necessary for the benefit of those societies and economic sectors affected by El Nio.

关键词： 2014 El Nio forecast El Nio ENSO Experimental forecast Oscillations Teleconnections

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The Letter and the Spirit of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction(a.k.a.HFA2)

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2015年第2期6卷 205-206页

作者： Michael H.Glantz consortium for capacity building (CCB) Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) University of Colorado

In the midst of assessing and critiquing the document produced by the World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction(WCDRR)in Sendai,Japan,I came to realize that we tend to focus on the document itself and less so on the... 详细信息

关键词： for as is it a.k.a.HFA2 HFA of

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Forecast Hesitancy: Why are People Reluctant to Believe, Accept, or Respond to Various Weather, Water, and Climate Hazard-Related Forecasts?

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2021年第4期12卷 600-609页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Gregory E.Pierce consortium for capacity building(CCB) Institute for Arctic and Alpine Research(INSTAAR)University of ColoradoBoulderCO80301USA

Current discussions of the social phenomenon of“vaccine hesitancy”with regard to Covid-19 provide an opportunity to use hesitancy as a means to shift thinking about untimely and delayed responses to forecasts of hydrometeorological hazards.Hesitancy,that is,provides a paradigm through which such regrettably delayed responses to hydromet hazards might be better understood and effectively addressed.Without exaggeration,just about every hydromet event provides an example of how hesitancy hinders individual,community,and national government risk-reducing preventive and mitigative responses to forecasts of foreseeable,relatively near-term climate,water,or weather hazards.Reasons for such hesitancy(for vaccine and forecast use alike)include—among others—lack of trust in the science,lack of confidence in government,and persistent concern about the uncertainties that surround forecasting—both meteorological and public health.As such,a better understanding of the causes that lead to individual and group hesitancy can better inform hydromet forecasters and affected communities about ways in which beneficial actions in response to timely forecasts are often delayed.This better understanding will facilitate,where necessary,targeted interventions to enhance the societal value of forecasting by reducing this long-observed challenge of“forecast hesitancy.”First,this article focuses on incidents of“vaccine hesitancy”that,for various reasons,people around the world are even now experiencing with regard to several now-available,and confirmed efficacious,Covid-19 vaccines.Reports of such incidents of indecisiveness first increased dramatically over the first few months of 2021,despite the strong scientific confidence that vaccination would significantly lower personal risk of contracting as well as spreading the virus.After,the notion of forecast hesitancy with regard to hydrometeorological hazards is discussed.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Forecast Forecast hesitancy Hesitancy Hydromet hazards Vaccine hesitancy

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El Nio and the Kppen–Geiger Classification: A Prototype Concept and Methodology for Mapping Impacts in Central America and the Circum-Caribbean

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2018年第2期9卷 224-236页

作者： Lino Naranjo Michael H.Glantz Sayat Temirbekov Ivan J.Ramírez consortium for capacity building/INSTAAR University of Colorado Department of Anthropology Colorado State University Colorado School of Public Health Colorado State University

The aim of this pilot study conducted by the consortium for capacity building was to develop a prototype concept and methodology for the classification and visualization of the geographic impacts of El Nio on annual climates and seasonality. Our study is based on the Kppen–Geiger climate classification scheme for a set of selected countries affected by strong El Nios in Latin America. By identifying and visualizing the annual and seasonal changes in regional, national, or subnational climate regimes that generally accompany an El Nio event,this research proposes an efficient way to detect and describe climate shifts and variability across time and space. Such knowledge provides a support tool for risk analysis and can potentially enhance government efforts of climate risk management, including disaster risk reduction activities that prevent, mitigate, and improve coping responses to El Nio-related hydrometeorological threats.Details of the conceptual approach and methodology to classifying and mapping El Nio's impacts are described and explained using the Central American and circumCaribbean region as a case study. The potential applications for disaster risk reduction as well as its limitations and future work are also discussed.

关键词： Caribbean Central America Disaster risk reduction El Nio impacts El Nio seasonality Kppen–Geiger classification

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From Yokohama to Sendai: Approaches to Participation in International Disaster Risk Reduction Frameworks

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2015年第2期6卷 128-139页

作者： Arielle Tozier de la Poterie Marie-Ange Baudoin consortium for capacity building Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR) University of Colorado Researcher & Course Convener African Climate & Development Initiative (ACDI) University of Cape Town

Taking the importance of local action as a starting point, this analysis traces the treatment of participation of local and community actors through the three international frameworks for disaster risk reduction(DRR): the Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a Safer World, the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005–2015, and the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030(SFDRR). The study finds a concerning shift away from valuing local community input and toward promoting technological advances. Community actors went from valued partners with their own expertise and relevant beliefs in Yokohama Strategy to ‘‘aid recipients’ ’ to whom tailored risk information must be transmitted(in SFDRR). This shift may reflect the top-down nature of negotiated international agreements or a broader shift toward investments in technological solutions. Whatever the cause, given widespread recognition of the importance of local knowledge and participation and growing recognition of the importance of intra-community differences in vulnerability, it suggests the need for reconsideration of both the discourse and the practice of involving community-level actors in DRR planning and implementation.

关键词：社区参予灾难风险减小讲话分析国际框架

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Understanding the El Nio Costero of 2017: The Definition Problem and Challenges of Climate Forecasting and Disaster Responses

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2017年第4期8卷 489-492页

作者： Ivan J.Ramírez Fernando Briones Department of Anthropology Colorado State University consortium for capacity building/INSTAAR University of Colorado Graduate Program in Public Health Colorado State University

This preliminary study examines the definition problem and challenges of climate forecasting and disaster responses associated with the El Nio costero(coastal) of2017, which developed rapidly with no warning and had catastrophic effects in Peru. Such a localized El Nio was not documented since 1925. An initial review suggests that in addition to the characteristics of the event(surprise),government responses may have been inadequate(as media reported) because of conflicting forecast reports(U.S. and Peru), which provoked a hydrometeorological debate and stifled decision making. Partly to blame was the El Nio definition problem, which can cause uncertainty and affect perception of risk, depending on which region of the equatorial Pacific one uses to identify an event. Responses were further complicated by the fact that some regions within Peru were experiencing drought prior to the El Nio costero's onset and impacts from the El Nio 2015–2016 were less than expected. Furthermore, a new government was in place, which may have hindered action. Thus, El Nio costero provides lessons to heed, not only with respect to the forecast information, but also with reference to the context of the forecast and disaster setting, which can influence disaster responses to hydrometeorological threats.

关键词： Disaster risk reduction Ecuador El Nio costero El Nio forecast El Nio-Southern Oscillation Peru Teleconnections

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Thoughts on Dealing with Climate Change…As if the Future Matters

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2013年第1期4卷 1-8页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Ilan Kelman consortium for capacity building INSTAARUniversity of ColoradoBoulderCO 80309U.S.A. Center for International Climate and Environmental Research–Oslo N-0318 OsloNorway

This article uses the need for more inspiration in people to act on climate change as a basis for exploring some thoughts on the societal and environmental challenges of climate change. It aims to provide ways of interpreting what is often presented on climate change without considering how the audience receives that information and might or might not be inspired to take action based on it. Different meanings of “change” are examined in the context of “climate change.” The term “adaptation” is similarly analyzed. Based on the understanding of those terms, four notions are defined and outlined in relation to decision-making for climate change adaptation: Ignorance versus “Ignore-ance,” surprise, foreseeability, and forecasting by analogy. The conclusions explore the interlinkages between society and the environment as well as how to turn lessons identified into lessons that are actually learned in order to be implemented. Achieving inspiration is not straightforward, but without it, the future will be bleak under a changing society and environment.

关键词： forecasting analogy straight

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Reviewing the Oceanic Nino Index(ONI) to Enhance Societal Readiness for El Nino’s Impacts

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International Journal of Disaster Risk Science 2020年第3期11卷 394-403页

作者： Michael H.Glantz Ivan J.Ramirez consortium for capacity building/INSTAAR.University of Colorado BoulderCO 80309USA Department of Health and Behavioral Sciences University of Colorado DenverDenverCO 80204USA

NOAA’s Oceanic Nino Index(ONI)is used to record for historical purposes the occurrence and duration of El Nino episodes,based on the monitoring of sea surface temperatures(SSTs)in the central Pacific Ocean.The ONI is used to identify the onset of an above average SST threshold that persists for several months,encompassing both the beginning and end of an El Nino episode.The first appearance of an anomalous seasonal value of 0.5℃suggests with a high probability that an El Nino could emerge,but for heightened warnings,one must wait for several months.In this article,we proposed that the ONI value of 0.7℃identifies a tipping point at which the El Nino event becomes locked in,which can provide additional lead time for mitigative actions to be taken by societal decision makers.Our preliminary findings suggest that a first appearance of 0.7℃value could serve as a credible marker of El Nino’s locked-in phase,which can provide additional credibility to the current 0.5℃El Nino onset indicator for at-risk societies to get ready for El Nino’s foreseeable societal and ecological impacts.

关键词： Advisory Disasters Early warning El Nino El Nino Southern Oscillation ENSO Hydrometeorological hazards Oceanic Nino Index ONI

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