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Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 222-229页

作者： Zheng-Tai ZHANG Chang-Ai XU Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind *** studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large *** this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in *** results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial *** spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for ***,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33%in *** for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission *** SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4%to-3%.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern *** study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.

关键词： Surface wind speed Uncertainty Multi-model ensemble Reliability ensemble averaging CMIP6

High-resolution short-term prediction of the COVID-19 epidemic based on spatial-temporal model modified by historical meteorological data

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 527-539页

作者： Bin Chen Ruming Chen Lin Zhao Yuxiang Ren Li Zhang Yingjie Zhao Xinbo Lian Wei Yan Shuoyuan Gao college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Collaborative Innovation Center of Western Ecological Security Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

In the global challenge of Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)pandemic,accurate prediction of daily new cases is crucial for epidemic prevention and socioeconomic *** contrast to traditional local,one-dimensional time-series data-based infection models,the study introduces an innovative approach by formulating the short-term prediction problem of new cases in a region as multidimensional,gridded time series for both input and prediction targets.A spatial-temporal depth prediction model for COVID-19(ConvLSTM)is presented,and further ConvLSTM by integrating historical meteorological factors(Meteor-ConvLSTM)is refined,considering the influence of meteorological factors on the propagation of *** correlation between 10 meteorological factors and the dynamic progression of COVID-19 was evaluated,employing spatial analysis techniques(spatial autocorrelation analysis,trend surface analysis,etc.)to describe the spatial and temporal characteristics of the *** the original ConvLSTM,an artificial neural network layer is introduced to learn how meteorological factors impact the infection spread,providing a 5-day forecast at a 0.01°×0.01°pixel *** results using real dataset from the 3.15 outbreak in Shanghai demonstrate the efficacy of Meteor-ConvLSTM,with reduced RMSE of 0.110 and increased R^(2) of 0.125(original ConvLSTM:RMSE=0.702,R^(2)=0.567;Meteor-ConvLSTM:RMSE=0.592,R^(2)=0.692),showcasing its utility for investigating the epidemiological characteristics,transmission dynamics,and epidemic development.

关键词： COVID-19 Prediction ConvLSTM Refined prediction Meteorological factors Spatial-temporal analysis

Development of the second version of Global Prediction System for Epidemiological Pandemic

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Fundamental Research 2024年第3期4卷 516-526页

作者： Jianping Huang Li Zhang Bin Chen Xiaoyue Liu Wei Yan Yingjie Zhao Siyu Chen Xinbo Lian Chuwei Liu Rui Wang Shuoyuan Gao Danfeng Wang Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Coronavirus disease 2019(COvID-19)is a severe global public health emergency that has caused a major cri-sis in the safety of human life,health,global economy,and social ***,CovID-19 poses significant challenges to healthcare systems *** prediction and early warning of infectious diseases on a global scale are the premise and basis for countries to jointly fight ***,because of the complexity of epidemics,predicting infectious diseases on a global scale faces significant *** this study,we developed the second version of Global Prediction System for Epidemiological Pandemic(GPEP-2),which combines statis-tical methods with a modified epidemiological *** GPEP-2 introduces various parameterization schemes for both impacts of natural factors(seasonal variations in weather and environmental impacts)and human so-cial behaviors(government control and isolation,personnel gathered,indoor propagation,virus mutation,and vaccination).The GPEP-2 successfully predicted the COVID-19 pandemic in over 180 countries with an average accuracy rate of 82.7%.It also provided prediction and decision-making bases for several regional-scale CovID-19 pandemic outbreaks in China,with an average accuracy rate of 89.3%.Results showed that both anthropogenic and natural factors can affect virus spread and control measures in the early stages of an epidemic can effectively control the *** predicted results could serve as a reference for public health planning and policymaking.

关键词： COVID-19 Epidemiological model Prediction GPEP SEIR Statistical-dynamic

Changes of Terrestrial Water Storage in the Yellow River Basin Under Global Warming

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 132-148页

作者：曾昕瑞管晓丹陈涵魏志敏王国栋 Collaborative Innovation Center for Western Ecological Safety College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000 China

The increasing temperature in the Yellow River Basin has led to a rapid rise in the melting level height,at a rate of 5.98 m yr^(-1)during the cold season,which further contributes to the transition from snowfall to rainfall *** 1979 and 2020,there has been a decrease in snowfall in the Yellow River Basin at a rate of-3.03 mm dec^(-1),while rainfall has been increasing at a rate of 1.00 mm dec^(-1).Consequently,the snowfall-to-rainfall ratio(SRR)has *** directly replenishes terrestrial water storage(TWS)in solid form until it melts,while rainfall is rapidly lost through runoff and evaporation,in addition to infiltrating underground or remaining on the ***,the decreasing SRR accelerates the depletion of water *** to the surface water balance equation,the reduction in precipitation and runoff,along with an increase in evaporation,results in a decrease in TWS during the cold season within the Yellow River *** addition to climate change,human activities,considering the region's dense population and extensive agricultural land,also accelerate the decline of ***,irrigation accounts for the largest proportion of water withdrawals in the Yellow River Basin(71.8%)and primarily occurs during the warm season(especially from June to August).The impact of human activities and climate change on the water cycle requires further in-depth research.

关键词： terrestrial water storage melting level height surface water balance human activities Yellow River Basin

Global trends of tropopause folds in recent decades

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 14-19页

作者： Yufeng Lin Wenshou Tian Haiyang Xue Jiali Luo Jiankai Zhang Hongying Tian Wenjun Liang college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhouChina School of atmospheric sciences Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Sun Yat-sen UniversityZhuhaiChina

对流层顶折卷是平流层-对流层物质交换的主要机制.本研究采用三维标记方法,利用1979-2020年间的ERA5再分析数据,分析了对流层顶折卷的时空变化特征及机理.研究结果表明,全球对流层顶折卷的多年变化趋势存在明显的季节性和区域性差异.总... 详细信息

对流层顶折卷是平流层-对流层物质交换的主要机制.本研究采用三维标记方法,利用1979-2020年间的ERA5再分析数据,分析了对流层顶折卷的时空变化特征及机理.研究结果表明,全球对流层顶折卷的多年变化趋势存在明显的季节性和区域性差异.总体上,对流层顶折卷呈增加趋势,其中北半球的春季,夏季和冬季,对流层顶折卷主要沿副热带急流区呈现明显增加的趋势.进一步分析表明,对流层顶折卷发生频率的增加与大气斜压性增大导致的锋生增强有关,而经向位温梯度的增大使得次级环流增强,也可能促进了对流层顶折卷活动的增多.

关键词：对流层顶折卷趋势锋生大气斜压性

Attribution of Biases of Interhemispheric Temperature Contrast in CMIP6 Models

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Advances in atmospheric sciences 2024年第2期41卷 325-340页

作者： Shiyan ZHANG Yongyun HU Jiankai ZHANG Yan XIA Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Studies Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic SciencesSchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China School of Systems Science Beijing Normal UniversityBeijing 100875China

One of the basic characteristics of Earth's modern climate is that the Northern Hemisphere(NH) is climatologically warmer than the Southern Hemisphere(SH). Here, model performances of this basic state are examined using simulation results from 26 CMIP6 models. Results show that the CMIP6 models underestimate the contrast in interhemispheric surface temperatures on average(0.8 K for CMIP6 mean versus 1.4 K for reanalysis data mean), and that there is a large intermodel spread, ranging from -0.7 K to 2.3 K. A box model energy budget analysis shows that the contrast in interhemispheric shortwave absorption at the top of the atmosphere, the contrast in interhemispheric greenhouse trapping, and the crossequatorial northward ocean heat transport, are all underestimated in the multimodel mean. By examining the intermodel spread, we find intermodel biases can be tracked back to biases in midlatitude shortwave cloud forcing in AGCMs. Models with a weaker interhemispheric temperature contrast underestimate the shortwave cloud reflection in the SH but overestimate the shortwave cloud reflection in the NH, which are respectively due to underestimation of the cloud fraction over the SH extratropical ocean and overestimation of the cloud liquid water content over the NH extratropical *** that underestimate the interhemispheric temperature contrast exhibit larger double ITCZ biases, characterized by excessive precipitation in the SH tropics. Although this intermodel spread does not account for the multimodel ensemble mean biases, it highlights that improving cloud simulation in AGCMs is essential for simulating the climate realistically in coupled models.

关键词： interhemispheric temperature contrast energy balance shortwave cloud forcing ITCZ CMIP6 AGCM

Comparison between ozonesonde measurements and satellite retrievals over Beijing,China

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atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 14-20页

作者： Jinqiang Zhang Yuejian Xuan Jianchun Bian Holger Vomel Yunshu Zeng Zhixuan Bai Dan Li Hongbin Chen Key Laboratory of Middle Atmosphere and Global Environment Observation Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina college of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina college of atmospheric sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhouChina National Center for atmospheric Research BoulderCOUSA Electronic Engineering college Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina

从2013年开始,作者团队使用自主研发电化学原理臭氧探空仪在华北平原北京地区进行每周一次观测.本研究首次使用2013-2019年期间北京地区臭氧探空数据评估Aqua卫星搭载大气红外探测仪(AIRS)和Aura卫星搭载微波临边探测器(MLS)反演垂直臭... 详细信息

从2013年开始,作者团队使用自主研发电化学原理臭氧探空仪在华北平原北京地区进行每周一次观测.本研究首次使用2013-2019年期间北京地区臭氧探空数据评估Aqua卫星搭载大气红外探测仪(AIRS)和Aura卫星搭载微波临边探测器(MLS)反演垂直臭氧廓线,并对比臭氧探空,AIRS和Aura卫星搭载臭氧监测仪(OMI)臭氧柱总量结果.尽管臭氧探空与卫星反演垂直臭氧廓线在局部高度处差异较大,但整体来说两者较为接近(相对偏差大多<10%).臭氧探空,AIRS和OMI三种仪器测量臭氧柱总量的年变化特征较为一致,其年均臭氧柱总量分别为351.8±18.4 DU,348.8±19.5 DU和336.9±14.2 DU.后续对国内多站点观测数据分析将有助于进一步理解臭氧探空与卫星反演臭氧资料在不同区域的一致性.

关键词：臭氧探空卫星反演垂直臭氧廓线臭氧柱总量华北平原

Responses of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi to straw return and nitrogen fertilizer reduction in a rainfed maize field

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Pedosphere 2024年第2期34卷 351-360页

作者： Zhenling PENG Hao XI Lin MAO Huyuan FENG Jianjun ZHANG Yongjun LIU State Key Laboratory of Herbage Improvement and Grassland Agro-ecosystems College of EcologyLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China college of Life sciences Northwest Normal UniversityLanzhou 730070China School of Life sciences Lanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China Dryland Agriculture Institute Gansu Academy of Agricultural SciencesLanzhou 730070China

Straw return can be used to reduce fertilizer input and improve agricultural sustainability and soil ***,how straw return and reduced fertilizer application affect beneficial soil microbes,particularly arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi(AMF),remains poorly ***,we conducted a five-year field experiment in a rainfed maize field on the Loess Plateau of northwestern *** tested four treatments with straw return combined with four nitrogen(N)application rates,i.e.,100%,80%,60%,and 0%of the common N application rate(225 kg N ha^(-1)year^(-1))in this region,and two reference treatments(full or no N application),with three replicates for each *** colonization was quantified and AMF communities colonizing maize roots were characterized using Illumina *** virtual taxa(VTs)of AMF were identified in root samples,among which VT113(related to Rhizophagus fasciculatus)and VT156(related to Dominikia gansuensis)were the predominant *** root length colonization and AMF VT richness were sensitive to N fertilization,but not to straw return;furthermore,both gradually increased with decreasing N application *** VT composition of the AMF community was also affected by N fertilization,but not by straw return,and the community variation could be well explained by soil available N and phosphorus ***,60%,80%,and full N fertilization produced similar maize ***,our study revealed the response patterns of AMF to straw return and N fertilizer reduction and showed that straw return combined with N fertilizer reduction may be a promising practice to maintain mycorrhizal symbiosis concomitantly with crop productivity.

关键词： agricultural sustainability crop productivity mycorrhizal colonization mycorrhizal symbiosis root length colonization virtual taxon

Short-term Association of Meteorological Elements on COVID-19 Pandemic in a Semi-arid City of Northwest China,2021-2022

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Biomedical and Environmental sciences 2024年第5期37卷 537-542页

作者： FENG Feng Liu MA Yu Xia CHENG Bo Wen LIU Zong Rui ZHAO Yu Han YANG Jie college of atmospheric sciences Key Laboratory of Semi-Arid Climate ChangeMinistry of EducationLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000GansuChina Minhe Meteorological Bureau Minhe 810800QinghaiChina

The coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19)outbreak in late 2019 significantly impacted global *** virus’s rapid spread,with its long incubation period and high infection level,caused substantial disruption to regular social frameworks,production,and lifestyles^([1]).COVID-19 is primarily transmitted through close contact,long-range contaminants,and airborne routes.

关键词： Northwest COV primarily