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Human influence on the duration of extreme temperature events in Asia's hotspot regions

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 312-326页

作者： Zi-Meng WANG Hong-Yun MA Wei LI Hai-Shan CHEN collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global ***,changes in the duration of extreme temperature events and their association with human influence have not been considered in most ***,the possible relationship between the observed changes in the warm and cold spell duration(WSDI and CSDI)in hotspot regions during 1960-2014 and human influence was investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)*** projection based on these attribution results was also *** optimal fingerprinting technique was used to compare observed changes in WSDI and CSDI to simulated changes averaged across eight CMIP6 *** show that anthropogenic(ANT)forcing contributed to the observed increase in WSDI in the three hotspot regions(West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia),with the majority of the changes being attributed to greenhouse gas ***,a generally weak ANT signal can be observed in the decreasing trend of CSDI and can be detected in South and Southeast *** influence of aerosol forcing remains undetected in either WSDI or CSDI,which differs from the results for frequency and intensity of extreme *** attribution results revealed that the constrained projection of WSDI is lower than the raw projection for 2015-2100 in West Asia and Southeast ***,no differences in future CSDI changes are found in Southeast Asia between the constrained and raw projections.

关键词： Extreme temperature events Duration Detection attribution Constraint projection Hotspot regions

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Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1691-1703页

作者： Jingrui YAN Wenjun ZHANG Suqiong HU Feng JIANG Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability,which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early(November-December)and late(January-February)*** early winter,precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern *** contrast,the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes,manifesting as a dipole spatial *** noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic *** the early winter of El Niño years,anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region,enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China,thus contributing to more precipitation *** the late winter of El Niño years,the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened,while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates,which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation *** the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña *** analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late *** results have important implications for the seasonal-tointerannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.

关键词： precipitation eastern China ENSO early winter late winter Kuroshio anticyclone

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Record-breaking summer-autumn drought in southern China in 2022:Roles of tropical sea surface temperature and Eurasian warming

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第2期67卷 420-431页

作者： Yuepeng HU Botao ZHOU Huijun WANG Dapeng ZHANG collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters/Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing210044China

From summer to autumn in 2022,a severe drought lasted in southern China,posing serious effects on economic growth and ecological *** study explored the atmospheric circulations accounting for this persistent drought *** shows that the drought in southern China during the summer of 2022 was strongly linked to the divergence of water vapor flux and descending motions,which were respectively caused by the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward movement of the East Asian subtropical jet(EASJ).Differently,the atmospheric background responsible for the sustained drought in autumn is manly featured by a cyclonic circulation anomaly over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea,which led to decreased moisture and descending motions in southern *** investigation suggests that the rarely strong surface warming over northern Eurasia and the extreme La Nina-like pattern over the tropical Pacific jointly resulted in the anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the northward shift of the EASJ in the summer of 2022,while the cyclonic circulation anomaly prevailing over the region from the Bay of Bengal to the South China Sea in autumn was largely attributed to the extremely negative anomalies of the tropical Indian Ocean sea surface temperature.

关键词： Summer-autumn drought Southern China Tropical sea surface temperature Eurasian warming

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Interdecadal change and projection of the relationship between spring Arctic Oscillation and summer precipitation in the Yangtze River valley in CMIP6 models

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 15-22页

作者： Weikai Jia Botao Zhou Ziyi Song collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters/Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

评估了20个CMIP6模式对春季北极涛动(AO)与长江流域夏季降水(YRP)关系的模拟能力.结果表明, 4个模式(ACCESS-ESM1-5, CMC-CM2-SR5, MRI-ESM2-0, NorESM2-LM))能合理模拟出1990年代后期AO-YRP关系的减弱. 1980-1998年,当春季AO位于正位相时,夏季东亚急流北移,长江流域为异常下沉运动,同时西太平洋副热带高压减弱,减少向长江流域的水汽输送,结果导致降水减少. 1999-2014年,上述大气环流与春季AO的联系不显著,从而减弱AO-YRP的关系.利用这四个模式进一步预估了RCP4.5情景下2015-2100年期间AO-YRP的关系.两者在2015-2040年为显著负相关关系,随后再次减弱.

关键词：北极涛动降水长江流域年代际变化 CMIP6

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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the Climate forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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Impacts of external forcing and internal variability on the North Atlantic multidecadal variations since 1950

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第8期67卷 2699-2701页

作者： Wenjian HUA Aiguo DAI Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at AlbanyState University of New YorkAlbany 12222USA

The physical formation mechanisms of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability(AMV)in the context of global warming have been a key research topic(Vecchi et al.,2017).The conventional view is that the AMV is mainly driven by internal dynamics within the climate system,especially in the Atlantic Ocean(Zhang et al.,2019).However,some studies suggest that decadal to multidecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)since around 1950 are related to anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions(Otter?et al.,2010;Booth et al.,2012;Hua et al.,2019).

关键词： Atlantic decadal forcing

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Relationship between the Stratospheric Arctic Vortex and Surface Air Temperature in the Midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 39-52页

作者： Xue RAN Dingzhu HU Yang ZHANG Mei-Chen LIU Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023

It is known that different relationships exist between the strength and displacement of the stratospheric polar vortex(SPV),and the surface air temperature(SAT)patterns in Eurasia and North America,but the mechanisms behind these relationships remain unclear,especially on an interannual *** on empirical orthogonal function(EOF)analysis using NCEP reanalysis data over 1958–2018,this study attempts to ascertain the relationship between the SPV intensity and displacement over the Arctic and the SATs in the midlatitudes of the Northern *** results indicate that a strengthened SPV corresponds to an SAT increase in Eurasia and a decrease in eastern North America and *** the SPV is shifted towards Eurasia,however,a corresponding SAT increase occurs in both North America and Eurasia,with a larger increase in North America than in ***,a strengthened SPV tends to correspond to a positive North Atlantic Oscillation-like circulation in the troposphere with negative geopotential height(GH)anomalies in Greenland and eastern North American continent and positive GH anomalies to the north of 45°N in Eurasia,which corresponds to lower SATs in North America than in ***,when the SPV shifted towards Eurasia,it was accompanied by a positive Pacific/North American-like pattern with a deepened Aleutian low,which corresponds to the increasing SATs in North *** tropospheric circulation changes are related to the response of tropospheric planetary wave activity to the SPV.A strengthened SPV corresponds to the weakening of tropospheric planetary wave-1 waves,which is accompanied by a negative GH in North America but a positive GH in *** the SPV shifted towards Eurasia,the tropospheric planetary wave-1(-2)waves strengthened(weakened),and the combined effects of the planetary wave-1 and wave-2 waves would cause positive GH anomalies in both Eurasia and North America.

关键词： stratospheric polar vortex surface air temperature teleconnection patterns planetary waves

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Persistent greening against drying in northeast Asian semiarid grasslands:Asymmetrical responses of direct and legacy effects to intensified drought

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第1期15卷 9-20页

作者： Yu-Tong MA Hai-Shan CHEN Yao-Ming SONG Bo-Tao ZHOU Shan-Lei SUN Xin-Guan DU Yue SUN Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Despite experiencing a decadal shift towards drought conditions at the end of the 2Oth century,semiarid grasslands in northeast Asia(NEA)exhibited an evident greening trend from 1982 to ***,the mechanism behind this phenomenon remains ***,we analysed the interdecadal changes in vegetation response to drought on the basis of the standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index(SPEI)and Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies LAI4g datasets,with an emphasis on the differences between direct and legacy effects(as measured by resilience),to explore the mechanism of persistent grassland *** revealed that during the post-drought shift period(2000-2020),the sudden decrease in the water content of the intermediate soil layer triggered an intensified vegetation response to ***,although direct effects and resilience were amplified,they exhibited asymmetric *** was stronger than direct effects,and this difference increased with increasing drought(drought recovery)*** combined effects may account for persistent greening against intensified drying in the semiarid grasslands in *** the projected exacerbation of future droughts,this study holds notable importance for comprehending the long-term change dynamics of dryland ecosystems.

关键词： Semiarid grassland Drought decadal shift Direct effect Legacy effect(resilience) Northeast Asia

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Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第1期17卷 21-27页

作者： Yinjun Zhang Lin Chen Yuqing Li Zi-An Ge Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分... 详细信息

2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.

关键词：极端干旱中国东部归因分析人为强迫未来预估

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Characteristics and Mechanisms of Persistent Wet–Cold Events with Different Cold-air Paths in South China

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1171-1183页

作者： Xiaojuan SUN Li CHEN Chuhan LU Panxing WANG Key laboratory of meteorological disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Qianxinan Bouyei and Miao Autonomous Prefecture meteorological Bureau of Guizhou Province Xingyi 562400China

We investigate the characteristics and mechanisms of persistent wet–cold events(PWCEs)with different types of coldair *** show that the cumulative single-station frequency of the PWCEs in the western part of South China is higher than that in the eastern *** pattern of single-station frequency of the PWCEs are“Yangtze River(YR)uniform”and“east–west inverse”.The YR uniform pattern is the dominant mode,so we focus on this *** cold-air paths for PWCEs of the YR uniform pattern are divided into three types—namely,the west,northwest and north types—among which the west type accounts for the largest *** differences in atmospheric circulation of the PWCEs under the three types of paths are *** thermal inversion layer in the lower troposphere is favorable for precipitation during the *** positive water vapor budget for the three types of PWCEs mainly appears at the southern boundary.

关键词： persistent wet–cold events cold-air paths circulation characteristics water vapor

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