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Human influence on the duration of extreme temperature events in Asia's hotspot regions

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 312-326页

作者： Zi-Meng WANG Hong-Yun MA Wei LI Hai-Shan CHEN collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters(CIC-FEMD)/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Observations and models indicate that human activities exert a considerable impact on the frequency and intensity of extreme temperature events,which are associated with global ***,changes in the duration of extreme temperature events and their association with human influence have not been considered in most ***,the possible relationship between the observed changes in the warm and cold spell duration(WSDI and CSDI)in hotspot regions during 1960-2014 and human influence was investigated based on the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis version 1 and Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)*** projection based on these attribution results was also *** optimal fingerprinting technique was used to compare observed changes in WSDI and CSDI to simulated changes averaged across eight CMIP6 *** show that anthropogenic(ANT)forcing contributed to the observed increase in WSDI in the three hotspot regions(West Asia,South Asia and Southeast Asia),with the majority of the changes being attributed to greenhouse gas ***,a generally weak ANT signal can be observed in the decreasing trend of CSDI and can be detected in South and Southeast *** influence of aerosol forcing remains undetected in either WSDI or CSDI,which differs from the results for frequency and intensity of extreme *** attribution results revealed that the constrained projection of WSDI is lower than the raw projection for 2015-2100 in West Asia and Southeast ***,no differences in future CSDI changes are found in Southeast Asia between the constrained and raw projections.

关键词： Extreme temperature events Duration Detection attribution Constraint projection Hotspot regions

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Fusion of Ground-Based and Spaceborne Radar Precipitation Based on Spatial Domain Regularization

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第2期38卷 285-302页

作者： Anfan HUANG Leilei KOU Yanzhi LIANG Ying MAO Haiyang GAO Zhigang CHU School of Atmospheric Physics Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044 collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044

High-quality and accurate precipitation estimations can be obtained by integrating precipitation information measures using ground-based and spaceborne radars in the same target *** the true precipitation state is a typical inverse problem for a given set of noisy radar precipitation *** regularization method can appropriately constrain the inverse problem to obtain a unique and stable *** different types of precipitation with different prior distributions,the L_(1) and L_(2) norms were more effective in constraining stratiform and convective precipitation,*** a combination of L_(1) and L_(2) norms,the Huber norm is more suitable for mixed precipitation *** study uses different regularization norms to combine precipitation data from the C-band dual-polarization ground radar(CDP)and dual-frequency precipitation radar(DPR)on the Global Precipitation Measurement(GPM)mission core *** to single-source radar data,the fused figures contain more information and present a comprehensive precipitation structure encompassing the reflectivity and precipitation *** 27 precipitation cases,the fusion results utilizing the Huber norm achieved a structural similarity index measure(SSIM)and a peak signal-to-noise ratio(PSNR)of 0.8378 and 30.9322,respectively,compared with the CDP *** fusion results showed that the Huber norm effectively amalgamate the features of convective and stratiform precipitation,with a reduction in the mean absolute error(MAE;16.1%and 22.6%,respectively)and root-mean-square error(RMSE;11.7%and 13.6%,respectively)compared to the 1-norm and ***,in contrast to the fusion results of scale recursive estimation(SRE),the Huber norm exhibits superior capability in capturing the localized precipitation intensity and reconstructing the detailed features of precipitation.

关键词： dual-frequency precipitation radar(DPR) dual-polarization radar data fusion regularization Huber norm

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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Traditional Meiyu-Baiu has been suspended by global warming

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National Science Review 2024年第7期11卷 126-134页

作者： Zhicong Yin Xiaolei Song Botao Zhou Wenhao Jiang Huopo Chen Huijun Wang Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

More than 1000 years, the Meiyu–Baiu have shaped the uniqueness of natural resources, civilization and culture in the Yangtze River Basin of China and the main islands of Japan. In recent decades, frequent rainstorms and droughts have seemingly diminished the misty features of traditional Meiyu–Baiu ***, there is still no consensus on whether their traditional nature is suspended. In this study, we quantitatively demonstrate that the Meiyu–Baiu almost completely lost their traditional features during 1961–2023, ～80% of which can be attributed to anthropogenic warming. Furthermore, in a warmer future,the traditional Meiyu–Baiu will be more unlikely to appear. This study underscores the urgency in adapting to climate shift because destructive extremes are measurably taking the place of mild and maternal rains.

关键词： global warming Meiyu–Baiu extremes human activity culture and civilization

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The forecast Skills and Predictability Sources of Marine Heatwaves in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Hindcasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1589-1600页

作者： Jing MA Haiming XU Changming DONG Jing-Jia LUO collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters/KLME/ILCEC/Institute of Climate and Application Research(ICAR) Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingJiangsu 210044China

Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and ***, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.

关键词： marine heatwaves NUIST-CFS1.0 hindcasts forecast skill predictability source ENSO

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Atlantic blocking events in a simplified nonlinear baroclinic model for local finite-amplitude wave activity

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 41-45页

作者： Ning Shi Bamidele Abiodun Paul Wencai Liu collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters School of Atmospheric SciencesNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Nigerian meteorological Agency AbujaNigeria

为研究北大西洋阻高的形成机制,本文在局部有限振幅波活动(LWA)框架下进行了一系列数值实验.采用的数值模型能显式地描绘出两种重要的大气内部动力过程,即非线性纬向位涡通量和Rossby波包传播.模拟结果显示,这两种动力学过程均是形成大... 详细信息

为研究北大西洋阻高的形成机制,本文在局部有限振幅波活动(LWA)框架下进行了一系列数值实验.采用的数值模型能显式地描绘出两种重要的大气内部动力过程,即非线性纬向位涡通量和Rossby波包传播.模拟结果显示,这两种动力学过程均是形成大西洋阻高的重要机理.具体地,非线性纬向位涡通量和Rossby波包传播,分别是大西洋阻高南部和北部LWA形成的主导因子.因此,本研究综合了前人关于大西洋阻高的研究成果,为其形成机理提供了新的认识.

关键词：斜压模式局地有限振幅波活动罗斯贝波传播非线性效应

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Impacts of external forcing and internal variability on the North Atlantic multidecadal variations since 1950

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第8期67卷 2699-2701页

作者： Wenjian HUA Aiguo DAI Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at AlbanyState University of New YorkAlbany 12222USA

The physical formation mechanisms of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability(AMV)in the context of global warming have been a key research topic(Vecchi et al.,2017).The conventional view is that the AMV is mainly driven by internal dynamics within the climate system,especially in the Atlantic Ocean(Zhang et al.,2019).However,some studies suggest that decadal to multidecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperature(SST)since around 1950 are related to anthropogenic and natural aerosol emissions(Otter?et al.,2010;Booth et al.,2012;Hua et al.,2019).

关键词： Atlantic decadal forcing

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Different ENSO Impacts on Eastern China Precipitation Patterns in Early and Late Winter Associated with Seasonally-Varying Kuroshio Anticyclonic Anomalies

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第9期41卷 1691-1703页

作者： Jingrui YAN Wenjun ZHANG Suqiong HU Feng JIANG Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China

Winter precipitation over eastern China displays remarkable interannual variability,which has been suggested to be closely related to El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).This study finds that ENSO impacts on eastern China precipitation patterns exhibit obvious differences in early(November-December)and late(January-February)*** early winter,precipitation anomalies associated with ENSO are characterized by a monopole spatial distribution over eastern *** contrast,the precipitation anomaly pattern in late winter remarkably changes,manifesting as a dipole spatial *** noteworthy change in precipitation responses from early to late winter can be largely attributed to the seasonally varying Kuroshio anticyclonic *** the early winter of El Niño years,anticyclonic circulation anomalies appear both over the Philippine Sea and Kuroshio region,enhancing water vapor transport to the entirety of eastern China,thus contributing to more precipitation *** the late winter of El Niño years,the anticyclone over the Philippine Sea is further strengthened,while the one over the Kuroshio dissipates,which could result in differing water vapor transport between northern and southern parts of eastern China and thus a dipole precipitation *** the opposite anomalies of circulation and precipitation are displayed during La Niña *** analysis suggests that the seasonally-varying Kuroshio anticyclonic anomalies are possibly related to the enhancement of ENSO-related tropical central-eastern Pacific convection from early to late *** results have important implications for the seasonal-tointerannual predictability of winter precipitation over eastern China.

关键词： precipitation eastern China ENSO early winter late winter Kuroshio anticyclone

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Differences in Variations of Long-Lived and Short-Lived Summer Heat Waves during 1981-2020 over Eastern China and Their Corresponding Large-Scale Circulation Anomalies

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 414-436页

作者： Liqun JI Haishan CHEN collaborative innovation center on forecast and evaluation of meteorological disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of EducationNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China

Using daily maximum temperature(Tmax)data from 516 observation stations in eastern China from 1981 to 2020,this study employed a relative threshold method to define short-and long-lived heat waves(HWs)by considering regional climate differences to investigate the spatial characteristics and evolution of large-scale circulation during summer *** results demonstrated spatial disparities in the frequency distribution of HWs of different durations and differences in the magnitude of duration and intensity between short-and long-lived *** orthogonal function analysis revealed three dominant spatial modes for both short-and long-lived *** first mode showed that short-lived HWs occur prominently in both northern and southern regions,whereas long-lived HWs mainly occur in the northern *** second mode was characterized by a meridional dipole pattern in both *** third mode exhibited a quadrupole pattern for short-lived HWs and a tripole pattern for long-lived *** in the center locations of anomalies in the 500-hPa geopotential height and 850-hPa wind fields significantly influenced the temperature and precipitation anomaly distribution of typical HWs by affecting the warm column in the lower troposphere,cloud distribution,and moisture ***,the atmospheric circulation evolution processes of typical HWs associated with the different modes of long-and short-lived HWs were linked to distinct teleconnection *** the three modes of long-lived(short-lived)HWs,there was stronger(weaker)wave flux activity with multiple(single)propagation *** westward Atlantic wave train activity at 300 hPa triggered the synergistic action of meridional and zonal wave fluxes,favoring the strengthening and maintenance of positive anomalies in geopotential height of 500 *** may have contributed to the formation of long-lived *** findings provide valuable insights to enhance our understanding and prediction of summer

关键词： short-lived heat waves(HWs) long-lived HWs empirical orthogonal function(EOF)modes large-scale atmospheric circulation

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Seasonal prediction of extreme high-temperature days over the Yangtze River basin

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2137-2147页

作者： Shifeng PAN Zhicong YIN Mingkeng DUAN Tingting HAN Yi FAN Yangyang HUANG Huijun WANG Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519080China

Extreme high temperatures occur frequently over the densely populated Yangtze River basin(YRB)in China during summer,significantly impacting the local economic development and ecological ***,accurate prediction of extreme high-temperature days in this region remains a ***,the Climate forecast System Version 2(CFSv2)exhibits poor performance in this ***,based on the interannual increment approach,we develop a hybrid seasonal prediction model over the YRB(HM_(YRB))to improve the prediction of extreme high-temperature days in *** HM_(YRB)relies on the following four predictors:the observed preceding April-May snowmelt in north western Europe;the snow depth in March over the central Siberian Plateau;the CFSv2-forecasted concurrent summer sea surface temperatures around the Maritime Continent;and the 200-hPa geopotential height over the Tibetan *** HM_(YRB)indicates good capabilities in predicting the interannual variability and trend of extreme high-temperature days,with a markable correlation coefficient of 0.58 and a percentage of the same sign(PSS)of 76% during 1983-2015 in the one-year-out ***,the HM_(YRB) maintains high PSS skill(86%)and robustness in the independent prediction period(2016-2022).Furthermore,the HM_(YRB) shows a good performance for years with high occurrence of extreme high-temperature days,with a hit ratio of 40%.These predictors used in HM_(YRB)are beneficial in terms of the prediction skill for the average daily maximum temperature in summer over the YRB,albeit with biases existing in the *** study provides promising insights into the prediction of 2022-like hot extremes over the YRB in China.

关键词： Hot extremes Yangtze River basin CFSv2 Seasonal prediction One-year-out cross-validation

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