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Optimization of multi-model ensemble forecasting of typhoon waves

Water Science and Engineering 2016年第1期9卷 52-57页

作者： Shun-qi Pan Yang-ming Fan Jia-ming Chen Chia-chuen Kao Hydro-environmental Research Centre School of Engineering Cardiff University coastal ocean monitoring center National Cheng Kung University Department of Hydraulic and ocean Engineering National Cheng Kung University

Accurately forecasting ocean waves during typhoon events is extremely important in aiding the mitigation and minimization of their potential damage to the coastal infrastructure, and the protection of coastal communities. However, due to the complex hydrological and meteorological interaction and uncertainties arising from different modeling systems, quantifying the uncertainties and improving the forecasting accuracy of modeled typhoon-induced waves remain challenging. This paper presents a practical approach to optimizing model-ensemble wave heights in an attempt to improve the accuracy of real-time typhoon wave forecasting. A locally weighted learning algorithm is used to obtain the weights for the wave heights computed by the WAVEWATCH III wave model driven by winds from four different weather models （model-ensembles）. The optimized weights are subsequently used to calculate the resulting wave heights from the model-ensembles. The results show that the opti- mization is capable of capturing the different behavioral effects of the different weather models on wave generation. Comparison with the measurements at the selected wave buoy locations shows that the optimized weights, obtained through a training process, can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasted wave heights over the standard mean values, particularly for typhoon-induced peak waves. The results also indicate that the algorithm is easy to imnlement and practieal for real-time wave forecasting.

关键词： Wave modeling Optimization Forecasting Typhoon waves WAVEWATCH III Locally weighted learning algorithm

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Seasonal and spatial variations of macrobenthic community in intertidal Sargassum field off Naozhou Island, South China Sea

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Journal of oceanology and Limnology 2021年第2期39卷 637-651页

作者： Caixue ZHANG Weinan ZHOU Xingli SUN Sheng KE Yaoqian LIU Zhiguang SONG monitoring center of ocean Resource and Environment Guangdong Ocean UniversityZhanjiang 524088China

Seasonal and spatial variations in the macrobenthic community in an intertidal gulfweed field off Naozhou Island were investigated from April 2011 to January *** identified 407 macrobenthic organism species:64 macroalgae(15.72%of total species);123 Arthropoda(30.22%);107 Mollusca(26.29%);67 Annelida(16.46%);15 Cnidaria(3.69%);14 Echinodermata(3.44%);8 Porifera(1.97%);4 Chordata(0.98%);2 Urochorda(0.49%);and 1 each of Echiura,Sipunculida and Angiospermae(0.25%).Arthropods,mollusks,annelids,and macroalgae were four main groups in the benthic organism community and accounted for 88.70%of the total *** terms of abundance of biomass,there were 15 dominant species,including 8 macroalgal,5 mollusk and 2 arthropod *** species diversity indices ranged from 1.21 to 4.42 with an average of 2.80;the annual average of evenness was *** richness indices varied from 2.97 to 7.24(average 4.97);and Simpson dominance indices varied from 0.20 to 0.92 in annual average of *** distribution showed clear vertical zonation and seasonal *** number of macroalgal species found in the high tide zone,upper middle tide zone,middle tide zone,lower middle tide zone,low tide zone,and below low tide zone were 1,8,10,16,22,and 32,*** among the benthic organisms,macroalgae and crustaceans had significant positive correlation(P<0.05)with the coefficients of 0.802,0.894,and 0.592,*** biomass showed a clearly negative correlation with the concentration of dissolved inorganic nitrogen(DIN)(R=0.486,P<0.05).During the winter and spring,when macroalgae were growing vigorously,DIN reached the lowest level in seawater and displayed a clear weak correlation between macroalgal growth and the nutrient concentration.

关键词： macrobenthic marine algae species diversity seasonal distribution spatial distribution Naozhou Island

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A numerical study of hydrodynamic characteristics and hydrological processes in the coastal wetlands during extreme events

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2023年第5期35卷 963-979页

作者： Ming-liang Zhang Xiao-sen Zhu Yu-jia Wang Heng-zhi Jiang Lei Cui College of ocean Science and Environment Dalian Ocean UniversityDalian116023China Technology Innovation center for coastal Ecological Environment and Disaster Protection Liaoning ProvinceDalian116023China National Marine Environmental monitoring center Dalian116023China

Providing accurate predictions of extreme water levels through numerical simulation has become essential for disaster prevention and damage mitigation in coastal wetland *** study applies the FVCOM model to simulate storm surges caused by several typhoons in the Bohai Sea and the North Huanghai *** vegetation drag force caused by salt marsh plants is inserted into the FVCOM model for model improvement with vegetation effect by integrating RS and GIS technologies.A parametric typhoon model is coupled with background wind fields derived to acquire the spatio-temporal variations of wind and pressure fields in the computational *** simulation results reproduce the extreme storm surges induced by typhoon events very *** modeling results are compared by validating with literature results to examine the effect of vegetation on tidal waves in tidal mud ***,the coupled model is also applied to explore storm surge attenuation and land intrusion during Typhoon Winnie in the wetlands of the Liao River *** simulation results indicate that salt marsh plants can reduce the flow current with little impact on tide flooding/ebbing in vegetated ***,the results show that typhoon presence increases the inundation depth and extendes the flood time in the tidal wetlands of the study *** FVCOM model incorporating the method with vegetation drag force can provide new insights to understand the comprehensive impact of tidal wetland plants on hydrodynamic characteristics in the Bohai Sea and other waters,hence presents a more accurate quantification of the hydrological process of storm surge in the tidal wetlands.

关键词： FVCOM circulation model Parametric typhoon model coastal wetlands storm surge hydrological process

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Simulation of Wave Impact on Three-Dimensional Horizontal Plate Based on SPH Method

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Transactions of Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics 2014年第6期31卷 701-709页

作者：郑坤孙家文陈昌平孙昭晨任喜峰 National Marine Enviromental monitoring center State Key Laboratory of coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology School of ocean and Civil Engineering Dalian Ocean University

An improved three-dimensional incompressible smooth particle hydrodynamics(ISPH)model is developed to simulate the impact of regular wave on a horizontal *** improvement is the employment of a corrective function to enhance angular momentum conservation in a particle-based *** a new estimation method is proposed to predict the pressure on the horizontal ***,the model simulates the variation characteristics of impact pressures generated by regular wave *** main features of velocity field and pressure field near the plate are *** present numerical model can be used to study wave impact load on the horizontal plate.

关键词： incompressible smoothed particle hydrodynamics(ISPH) wave impact three-dimensional horizontal plate

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Numerical investigation of the effects of aquatic plants on wind-induced currents in Taihu Lake in China

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2019年第4期31卷 778-787页

作者： Tian-ping Xu Ming-liang Zhang Hcng-zhi Jiang Jun Tang Hong-xing Zhang Hui-ting Qiao School of ocean Science and Environment Dalian Ocean University Dalian 116023 China National Marine Environmental monitoring center Dalian 116023 China State Key Laboratory of coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology Dalian 116023 China

Shallow lakes are an important part of the earth's water circulation system, and many factors may impact the evolution of the lake water circulation, including the wind, the topography, the human activities, and the aquatic plants. This paper proposes a depth-averaged 2-D hydrodynamic model to investigate the interaction of the wind-induced current and the aquatic plant in the lake. The model is based on the generalized shallow water equations solved by an explicit finite volume method with unstructured triangular grids. The drag force of the vegetation is considered into the momentum equations as the source term. Remote sensing techniques are applied to evaluate the aquatic vegetation in the Taihu Lake, China, based on Landsat TM satellite images. The study model is then used to simulate the characteristics of the wind-induced currents in the Taihu Lake, without and with the vegetation effects. The simulation results are in good agreement with the field measurements, demonstrating that the aquatic plants significantly affect the magnitude of the velocity and the flow circulation induced by the wind in the Taihu Lake. In addition, a sensitivity analysis reveals that the plant parameters (the density and the drag force coefficient) are significant factors influencing the velocity and the structure of the currents in the Taihu Lake.

关键词： Finite volume method Roe solver shallow lake wind-induced current aquatic plant

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Development of a skill assessment tool for the Korea operational oceanographic system

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Acta oceanologica Sinica 2013年第9期32卷 74-81页

作者： CHO Kyoung-Ho CHOI Jin-Yong JEONG Sang-Hun CHOI Jung-Woon KWON Jae-Il PARK Kwang-Soon coastal Disaster Research center Korea Institute of Ocean Science and Technology

A standard skill assessment （SA） tool was developed and implemented to evaluate the performance of op- erational forecast models in the Korea operational oceanographic system. The SA tool provided a robust way to assess model skill in the system by comparing predictions and observations, and involved the com- putation of multiple skill metrics including correlation and error skills. User- and system-based acceptance criteria of skill metrics were applied to determine whether predictions were acceptable for the system. To achieve this, the tool produced a time series comparison plot, a skill score table, and an advanced sum- marized diagram to effectively demonstrate the multiple skill scores. Moreover, the SA was conducted to evaluate both atmospheric and hydrodynamic forecast variables. For the atmospheric variables, acceptable error criteria were preferable to acceptable correlation criteria over short timescales, since the mean square error overwhelmed the observation variance. Conversely, for the hydrodynamic variables, acceptable root mean square percentage error （e.g., perms） criteria were preferable to acceptable error （e.g., erms） criteria owing to the spatially variable tidal intensity around the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, the SA indicated that predetermined acceptance error criteria were appropriate to satisfy a target central frequency （fc） for which errors fell within the specified limits （i.e., the .fc equals 70%）.

关键词： skill assessment tool operational forecast system Korea operational oceanographic system

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Fluctuation in Ommastrephe bartrami yield in the North Pacific

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Chinese Journal of oceanology and Limnology 2008年第4期26卷 353-356页

作者：郑蕊陈戈 Second monitoring and Application center CEA ocean Remote Sensing Institute Ocean Universiiy of China

The fluctuation in Ommastrephe bartrami yield from 1995 to 2001 in the North Pacific was shown obvious, on which this study was conducted using data of sea surface temperature （SST）, chlorophyll-a （chl-α） and statistical production. The study shows that, cool water and low food abundance caused by abnormal Kuroshio resulted in the reduction in abundance of O. bartrami, which was worsened by excessive catch and the unawareness to local fishery resources protection.

关键词： Ommastrephe bartrami SST chlorophyll-a North Pacific ocean RS yield fluctuation

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Lagrangian methods for water transport processes in a long-narrow bay-Xiangshan Bay, China

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2014年第4期26卷 558-567页

作者：梁书秀韩松林孙昭晨胡展铭 State Key Laboratory of coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology National Marine Environmental monitoring center

A better understanding of water transport processes is highly desirable for the exploitation of the ocean resources and the protection of the ocean ecological system. In this paper, the Lagrangian methods are used to study the water transport processes in Xiangshan Bay in China, a typical semi-closed and narrow-shaped bay with complex coastline and topography. A high-resolution 3-D hydrodynamic model is developed and verified, and the results from the model agree well with the field data. Based on the hydrodynamic model, the Lagrangian residual current is computed by using the particle tracking method. A concept based on the dynamical systems theory, the Lagrangian coherent structures （LCSs）, is introduced to uncover the underlying structures which act as the transport barriers in the flow. The finite-time Lyapunov exponent （FTLE） fields are computed from the hydrodynamic model results to extract the LCSs. The results indicate that the LCSs act as the internal structures of the Lagrangian residual current and the Lagrangian residual current displays the residual current speed and direction of different water regimes separated by the LCSs. The water masses with different transport characteristics can be identified and their exchange ability with other water masses can be estimated by combining the Lagrangian particle tracking with the LCSs methods. The comprehensive applications of these Lagrangian methods reveal the underlying structures and the inhomogeneous characteristics of the water transport in Xiangshan Bay.

关键词： water transport processes circulation Lagrangian coherent structures (LCSs) Xiangshan Bay

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Numerical Simulation of the Three-Dimensional Wave-Induced Currents on Unstructured Grid

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China ocean Engineering 2017年第5期31卷 539-548页

作者： WANG Ping ZHANG Ning-chuan YUAN Shuai CHEN Wei-bin National Marine Environmental monitoring center State Key Laboratory of coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of Technology

By coupling the three-dimensional hydrodynamic model with the wave model, numerical simulations of the three- dimensional wave-induced current are carried out in this study. The wave model is based on the numerical solution of the modified wave action equation and eikonal equation, which can describe the wave refraction and diffraction. The hydrodynamic model is driven by the wave-induced radiation stresses and affected by the wave turbulence. The numerical implementation of the module has used the finite-volume schemes on unstructured grid, which provides great flexibility for modeling the waves and currents in the complex actual nearshore, and ensures the conservation of energy propagation. The applicability of the proposed model is evaluated in calculating the cases of wave set-up, longshore currents, undertow on a sloping beach, rip currents and meandering longshore currents on a tri-cuspate beach. The results indicate that it is necessary to introduce the depth-dependent radiation stresses into the numerical simulation of wave-induced currents, and comparisons show that the present model makes better prediction on the wave procedure as well as both horizontal and vertical structures in the wave-induced current field.

关键词： three-dimensional wave-induced current undertow unstructured grid radiation stress numerical simulation

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Numerical study of water age influenced by tide and runoff in Daliaohe Estuary in China

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Journal of Hydrodynamics 2013年第1期25卷 39-47页

作者： WANG Peng-cheng ZHANG Xue-qing ZHAO Qian SHI Ming-zhu College of Environmental Science and Engineering Ocean University of China National Marine Environment monitoring center

Based on the concept of the age, the water transport characteristics as the response to the runoff and the tide in Daliaohe Estuary in China are studied under different hydrodynamic conditions using a three-dimensional convection-diffusion model. The results show that the relationship between the average age at a specific position and the runoff could be expressed by a power function approximately. In the river channel, the runoff controls the water transport： it might take about 52 d, 27 d and 15 d for the water parcel to be transported from Sanchahe to the mouth during the dry, normal and rainy seasons, respectively. Outside the mouth, the tide is dominant even though the difference between the spring tide and the neap tide is less than 5 d, and the water parcel transports mainly along the northwest direction through the West Waterway and the southeast direction through the East Waterway. A significant age stratification emerges in the vicinity of the mouth, in which there exists a strong interaction between the tide and the runoff, and the age differences between the surface and the bottom could reach 7 d.

关键词： Daliaohe Estuary water age passive tracer numerical simulation

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