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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards China University of Geosciences Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate change research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for climate research Nansen-Zhu International research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection Three Gorges Reservoir area triple-nested downscaling

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Influence of biomass burning on ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico during the COVID-19 lockdown

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第9期143卷 99-115页

作者： Victor Almanza Luis Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez Ricardo Torres-Jardón Agustín García-Reynoso Iván Y.Hernández-Paniagua Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and climate change National Autonomous University of MexicoCoyoacan 04510Mexico CityMexico

The massive reductions in anthropogenic emissions resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of mitigation measures aiming to abate air pollution.In Mexico,the total lockdown period took place during the dry-hot season when biomass burning activity is enhanced.Here,we investigate the role of biomass burning emissions on regional ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico.The studied period covers the lockdown phases 2 and 3,and the first month of the New Normal.We applied a factor separation technique and process analysis to estimate the pure and synergistic contributions of emission reductions under lockdown and that from biomass burning to daily ozone maximum concentrations in 7 metropolitan areas of different states in the Megalopolis.The results revealed that biomass burning plumes likely masked the effect of massive reductions from mobile emissions,impacted the PBL development during phase 3 and favored transition and mixed NO_(x)-limited and VOC-limited regional regimes.This contributed to increased ozone production in the middle to lower PBL by changing the regional background levels which potentially could bias high ozone production efficiency estimations.Given the Megalopolis contribution to economic and societal development at national scale,our study suggests that ozone mitigation measures during the dry-hot season targeting mainly mobile emissions will likely be offset by biomass burning plumes.A regional and synergic policy aiming to control biomass burning would help to reduce the occurrence of high ozone levels in Central Mexico with the co-benefit of tackling short-lived climate pollutants.

关键词： COVID-19 Mexico Megalopolis Ozone Factor Separation Process Analysis

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Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第5期21卷 1509-1521页

作者： Arshad ASHRAF Imran AHMAD climate Energy and Water Research InstituteNational Agricultural Research Centre(NARC)Islamabad 44000Pakistan

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., 100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic development in the region in future.

关键词： climate change Erodibility Indus basin Land degradation Slope stabilization

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate change research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate change research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation planning.Previous related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate models.Here,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation effects.Two experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of irrigation.Results showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil moisture.Moreover,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation schemes.Winter wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum temperature.Additionally,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the atmosphere.Further analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and agriculture.Fortunately,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated region.Additionally,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity,which might be an undereastimation caused by th

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for climate research Nansen-Zhu International research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai) Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions scenario.Thereafter, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： model democracy model independence model performance model weighting scheme wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice

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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006–2021

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Administration Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex research China Meteorological Administration Panjin National climate Observatory China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate Centre China Meteorological Administration Jilin Provincial climate centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological Administration

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid–high latitudes of East Asia, the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) substantially influences weather and climate in this region. So far, systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried out. Based on the Beijing climate centre(BCC) and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S) Prediction Project, this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal timescale. The results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity, active days, and spatial distribution of NCCVs; however, the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the observations. Diagnostic analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S models. Nonetheless, in the deterministic forecasts, BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4–5(5–6) pentads, and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1–2 pentads longer than that of individual members. In the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities, BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days, respectively; both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events, with better performance in winter than in summer.The results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex (NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme High Temperature Indices in Southwestern China Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第1期38卷 88-107页

作者： Fen ZHANG Linxiao WEI Yonghua LI Hongyu TANG Tianyu ZHANG Baogang YANG China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resource to Economy Chongqing Climate CentreChongqing 401147

Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.

关键词： NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 extreme high temperature(EHT) southwestern China evaluation projection

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Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

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Advances in climate change research 2024年第2期15卷 222-229页

作者： Zheng-Tai ZHANG Chang-Ai XU Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind turbines.Most studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large uncertainties.In this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in 2015-2099.The results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial distribution.The spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for REA.Generally,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33%in 2015-2099.Except for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission scenarios.The SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4%to-3%.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern China.This study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.

关键词： Surface wind speed Uncertainty Multi-model ensemble Reliability ensemble averaging CMIP6

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Carbon sequestration in a bamboo plantation:a case study in a Mediterranean area

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Journal of Forestry research 2024年第3期35卷 231-238页

作者： Tommaso Chiti Emanuele Blasi Maria Vincenza Chiriaco Department for Innovation in Biological Agro-Food and Forest Systems(DIBAF)University of TusciaVia San C.De Lellis snc01100 ViterboItaly Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on climate change(CMCC) Division on Climate Change Impacts on AgricultureForests and Ecosystem Services(IAFES)Via Garbini5101100 ViterboItaly

In the Mediterranean region,despite bamboo being an alien species that can seriously alter plant and ani-mal biocoenosis,the area occupied by bamboo plantations continues to increase,especially for the purpose to seques-ter carbon(C).However,the C dynamics in the soil-plant system when bamboo is grown outside its native area are poorly understood.Here we investigated the C mitigation potential of the fast-growing Moso bamboo(Phyllostachys edulis)introduced in Italy for climate-change mitigation.We analyzed aboveground(AGB)and belowground(as root/shoot ratio)biomass,litter and soil organic C(SOC)at O-15-and 15-30-cm depths in a 4-year-old bamboo plantation in comparison with the former annual cropland on which the bamboo was established.To have an idea of the maximum C stored at an ecosystem level,a natural forest adjacent the two sites was also considered.In the plantation,C accumulation as AGB was stimulated,with 14.8±3.1 Mg C ha^(-1) stored in 3 years;because thinning was done to remove culms from the first year,the mean sequestration rate was 4.9 Mg C ha^(-1) a^(-1).The sequestration rates were high but comparable to other fast-growing tree species in Italy(e.g.,Pinus nigra).SOC was significantly higher in the bamboo plantation than in the cropland only at the 0-15 cm depth,but SOC stock did not differ.Possibly 4 years were not enough time for a clear increase in SOC,or the high nutrient uptake by bamboos might have depleted the soil nutrients,thus inhibiting the soil organic matter formation by bacteria.In comparison,the natural forest had significantly higher C levels in all the pools.For C dynamics at an ecosystem level,the bamboo plantation on the former annual cropland led to substantial C removal from the atmosphere(about 12 Mg C ha^(-1) a^(-1)).However,despite the promising C sequestration rates by bamboo,its introduction should be carefully considered due to potential ecological problems caused by this species in overexploited environments such as the Mediterranean area.

关键词： Carbon sequestration climate change mitigation Mediterranean area Moso bamboo Soil organic carbon

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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