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Influence of biomass burning on ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico during the COVID-19 lockdown

Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第9期143卷 99-115页

作者： Victor Almanza Luis Gerardo Ruiz-Suárez Ricardo Torres-Jardón Agustín García-Reynoso Iván Y.Hernández-Paniagua Institute for Atmospheric Sciences and climate change National Autonomous University of MexicoCoyoacan 04510Mexico CityMexico

The massive reductions in anthropogenic emissions resulting from the COVID-19 lockdown provided a unique opportunity to evaluate the effect of mitigation measures aiming to abate air pollution.In Mexico,the total lockdown period took place during the dry-hot season when biomass burning activity is enhanced.Here,we investigate the role of biomass burning emissions on regional ozone levels in the Megalopolis of Central Mexico.The studied period covers the lockdown phases 2 and 3,and the first month of the New Normal.We applied a factor separation technique and process analysis to estimate the pure and synergistic contributions of emission reductions under lockdown and that from biomass burning to daily ozone maximum concentrations in 7 metropolitan areas of different states in the Megalopolis.The results revealed that biomass burning plumes likely masked the effect of massive reductions from mobile emissions,impacted the PBL development during phase 3 and favored transition and mixed NO_(x)-limited and VOC-limited regional regimes.This contributed to increased ozone production in the middle to lower PBL by changing the regional background levels which potentially could bias high ozone production efficiency estimations.Given the Megalopolis contribution to economic and societal development at national scale,our study suggests that ozone mitigation measures during the dry-hot season targeting mainly mobile emissions will likely be offset by biomass burning plumes.A regional and synergic policy aiming to control biomass burning would help to reduce the occurrence of high ozone levels in Central Mexico with the co-benefit of tackling short-lived climate pollutants.

关键词： COVID-19 Mexico Megalopolis Ozone Factor Separation Process Analysis

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Carbon sequestration in a bamboo plantation:a case study in a Mediterranean area

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Journal of Forestry Research 2024年第3期35卷 231-238页

作者： Tommaso Chiti Emanuele Blasi Maria Vincenza Chiriaco department for Innovation in Biological Agro-Food and Forest Systems(DIBAF)University of TusciaVia San C.De Lellis snc01100 ViterboItaly Foundation Euro-Mediterranean Center on climate change(CMCC) Division on Climate Change Impacts on AgricultureForests and Ecosystem Services(IAFES)Via Garbini5101100 ViterboItaly

In the Mediterranean region,despite bamboo being an alien species that can seriously alter plant and ani-mal biocoenosis,the area occupied by bamboo plantations continues to increase,especially for the purpose to seques-ter carbon(C).However,the C dynamics in the soil-plant system when bamboo is grown outside its native area are poorly understood.Here we investigated the C mitigation potential of the fast-growing Moso bamboo(Phyllostachys edulis)introduced in Italy for climate-change mitigation.We analyzed aboveground(AGB)and belowground(as root/shoot ratio)biomass,litter and soil organic C(SOC)at O-15-and 15-30-cm depths in a 4-year-old bamboo plantation in comparison with the former annual cropland on which the bamboo was established.To have an idea of the maximum C stored at an ecosystem level,a natural forest adjacent the two sites was also considered.In the plantation,C accumulation as AGB was stimulated,with 14.8±3.1 Mg C ha^(-1) stored in 3 years;because thinning was done to remove culms from the first year,the mean sequestration rate was 4.9 Mg C ha^(-1) a^(-1).The sequestration rates were high but comparable to other fast-growing tree species in Italy(e.g.,Pinus nigra).SOC was significantly higher in the bamboo plantation than in the cropland only at the 0-15 cm depth,but SOC stock did not differ.Possibly 4 years were not enough time for a clear increase in SOC,or the high nutrient uptake by bamboos might have depleted the soil nutrients,thus inhibiting the soil organic matter formation by bacteria.In comparison,the natural forest had significantly higher C levels in all the pools.For C dynamics at an ecosystem level,the bamboo plantation on the former annual cropland led to substantial C removal from the atmosphere(about 12 Mg C ha^(-1) a^(-1)).However,despite the promising C sequestration rates by bamboo,its introduction should be carefully considered due to potential ecological problems caused by this species in overexploited environments such as the Mediterranean area.

关键词： Carbon sequestration climate change mitigation Mediterranean area Moso bamboo Soil organic carbon

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Reliability ensemble averaging reduces surface wind speed projection uncertainties in the 21st century over China

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Advances in climate change Research 2024年第2期15卷 222-229页

作者： Zheng-Tai ZHANG Chang-Ai XU Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid climate change of the Ministry of Education College of Atmospheric SciencesLanzhou UniversityLanzhou 730000China

Accurate prediction of future surface wind speed(SWS)changes is the basis of scientific planning for wind turbines.Most studies have projected SWS changes in the 21st century over China on the basis of the multi-model ensemble(MME)of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6).However,the simulation capability for SWS varies greatly in CMIP6 multi-models,so the MME results still have large uncertainties.In this study,we used the reliability ensemble averaging(REA)method to assign each model different weights according to their performances in simulating historical SWS changes and project the SWS under different shared socioeconomic pathways(SSPs)in 2015-2099.The results indicate that REA considerably improves the SWS simulation capacity of CMIP6,eliminating the overestimation of SWS by the MME and increasing the simulation capacity of spatial distribution.The spatial correlations with observations increased from 0.56 for the MME to 0.85 for REA.Generally,REA could eliminate the overestimation of the SWS by 33%in 2015-2099.Except for southeastern China,the SWS generally decreases over China in the near term(2020-2049)and later term(2070-2099),particularly under high-emission scenarios.The SWS reduction projected by REA is twice as high as that by the MME in the near term,reaching-4%to-3%.REA predicts a larger area of increased SWS in the later term,which expands from southeastern China to eastern China.This study helps to reduce the projected SWS uncertainties.

关键词： Surface wind speed Uncertainty Multi-model ensemble Reliability ensemble averaging CMIP6

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The 2022 Extreme Heatwave in Shanghai,Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River Valley:Combined Influences of Multiscale Variabilities

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 593-607页

作者： Ping LIANG Zhiqi ZHANG Yihui DING Zeng-Zhen HU Qi CHEN Key Laboratory of Cities’Mitigation and Adaptation to climate change in Shanghai Shanghai Regional Climate CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationShanghai 200030China National climate Center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Prediction Center NCEP/NWS/NOAACollege ParkMD 20740USA

In the summer of 2022,China(especially the Yangtze River Valley,YRV)suffered its strongest heatwave(HW)event since 1961.In this study,we examined the influences of multiscale variabilities on the 2022 extreme HW in the lower reaches of the YRV,focusing on the city of Shanghai.We found that about 1/3 of the 2022 HW days in Shanghai can be attributed to the long-term warming trend of global warming.During mid-summer of 2022,an enhanced western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)and anomalous double blockings over the Ural Mountains and Sea of Okhotsk,respectively,were associated with the persistently anomalous high pressure over the YRV,leading to the extreme HW.The Pacific Decadal Oscillation played a major role in the anomalous blocking pattern associated with the HW at the decadal time scale.Also,the positive phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation may have contributed to regulating the formation of the double-blocking pattern.Anomalous warming of both the warm pool of the western Pacific and tropical North Atlantic at the interannual time scale may also have favored the persistency of the double blocking and the anomalously strong WPSH.At the subseasonal time scale,the anomalously frequent phases 2-5 of the canonical northward propagating variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation associated with the anomalous propagation of a weak Madden-Julian Oscillation suppressed the convection over the YRV and also contributed to the HW.Therefore,the 2022 extreme HW originated from multiscale forcing including both the climate warming trend and air-sea interaction at multiple time scales.

关键词： extreme heatwave multiscale variability air-sea interaction warming trend Yangtze River Valley Shanghai

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changes in snow cover extent in the Central Taurus Mountains from 1981 to 2021 in relation to temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric teleconnections

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第1期21卷 49-67页

作者： Ecmel ERLAT Fulya AYDIN-KANDEMİR department of Geography Ege UniversityIzmir 35100Türkiye climate change and Zero Waste department Antalya Metropolitan MunicipalityAntalya 07310Türkiye Hydropolitics Association Ankara 06680Türkiye

The snow cover over the Taurus Mountains affects water supply, agriculture, and hydropower generation in the region. In this study, we analyzed the monthly Snow Cover Extent(SCE) from November to April in the Central Taurus Mountains(Bolkar, Aladaglar, Tahtali and Binboga Mountains) from 1981 to 2021. Linear trends of snow cover season(November to April) over the last 41 years showed decreases in SCE primarily at lower elevations. The downward trend in SCE was found to be more pronounced and statistically significant for only November and March. SCE in the Central Taurus Mountains has declined about-6.3% per decade for 2500-3000 m in November and about-6.0% per decade for 1000-1500 m and 3000+ m in March over the last 41 years. The loss of SCE has become evident since the 2000s, and the lowest negative anomalies in SCE have been observed in 2014, 2001, and 2007 in the last 41 years, which are consistent with an increase in air temperature and decreased precipitation. SCE was correlated with both mean temperature and precipitation, with temperature having a greater relative importance at all elevated gradients. Results showed that there is a strong linear relationship between SCE and the mean air temperature(r =-0.80) and precipitation(r = 0.44) for all elevated gradients during the snow season. The Arctic Oscillation(AO), the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO), and the Mediterranean Oscillation(MO) winter indices were used to explain the year-to-year variability in SCE over the Central Taurus Mountains. The results showed that the inter-annual variability observed in the winter SCE on the Central Taurus Mountains was positively correlated with the phases of the winter AO, NAO and MO, especially below 2000 m elevation.

关键词： Snow cover extent Atmospheric teleconnection Central Taurus Mountains Air temperature and precipitation Geographic Information Systems Türkiye

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Differential colour-ring loss among Dalmatian Pelican(Pelecanus crispus) colonies and its consequence on survival estimates

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Avian Research 2024年第1期15卷 66-71页

作者： Anastasios Bounas Giorgos Catsadorakis Dionyssia Hatzilacou Theodoros Naziridis Jocelyn Champagnon Alain J.Crivelli department of Biological Applications and Technology University of IoanninaIoanninaGreece Society for the Protection of Prespa Agios GermanosGreece Natural Environment and climate change Agency 207 Mesogeion Ave.11525AthensGreece Natural Environment and climate change Agency Kerkini BranchKerkiniGR-62055Kato PoroiaGreece Tour du Valat Research Institute for Conservation of Mediterranean Wetlands13200ArlesFrance

The analysis of bird ringing data often comes with some potential sources of error and bias,as ring wear and/or loss could affect mark-recapture analyses and produce erroneous estimates of survival.Furthermore,ring wear and loss rates may differ between and within species based on the habitat they use or the species’ life-history traits and behaviour as well as the type of the ring.In this study we use resighting data from a long-term double marking experiment to directly estimate the rate of colour-ring loss among different Dalmatian Pelican colonies over time,evaluate any possible factors that could contribute to differential ring loss and assess how it may bias the results of mark-resighting analyses.Based on 14,849 resightings from 1275 individuals and using multi-state continuous-time hidden Markov models(HMMs) we showed that probability of ring loss was markedly different among colonies,ranging from 0.10 to 0.42 within the first year of marking,whereas the cumulative probability of losing a ring after ten years ranged 0.64 to 0.99.These rates are among the highest estimated when compared to previous studies in waterbirds.Our approach assessing the intra-specific variance in ring loss provided several factors potentially involved,such as the use of glue and the fledgling age accuracy and we could further hypothesise the effect of environmental factors.Finally,our results showed that ring loss can be a significant challenge for the assessment of the species’ population dynamics using mark-recapture methods as survival was consistently underestimated when not accounting for ring loss and varied significantly among different colonies.

关键词： Bias Capture-mark-recapture Colour-ring Double-marking Hidden Markov models

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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological Hazards China University of Geosciences Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate change Research Center Chinese Academy of Sciences Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes Centre for climate Research Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection Three Gorges Reservoir area triple-nested downscaling

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Taxonomy,distribution,and contemporary exposure of terrestrial mammals to floods and human pressure across different areas for biodiversity conservation in China

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Integrative Zoology 2024年第3期19卷 458-467页

作者： Roman SHARNUUD Eric I.AMECA MOE Key Laboratory for Biodiversity Science&Ecological Engineering College of Life SciencesBeijing Normal UniversityBeijingChina climate change Specialist Group Species Survival CommissionInternational Union for Conservation of NatureGlandSwitzerland

A significant research focus is placed on identifying animal species and areas at future risk to human-induced alterations of the environment and long-term changes in climatic conditions.Yet,the extent to which exposure to extreme climatic events and intense human pressure can increase the risk of harmful impacts on species remains poorly investigated.Focusing on terrestrial mammals in China,one of the world’s megadiverse countries,we investigated patterns of contemporary exposure to floods and human pressures and determined their taxonomic representation and distribution across three major area-based conservation schemes,namely,national nature reserves(NNRs),priority areas for biodiversity conservation(PABCs),and key biodiversity areas(KBAs).Among the 440 species assessed with moderate or high exposure to floods,327(∼75%)also qualified as moderate or high in exposure to intense human pressure.These species mainly belong to the orders Chiroptera,Eulipotyphla,and Rodentia.Likewise,there were 305,311,and 311 species with moderate or high exposure to flood and intense human pressure represented across NNRs,PABCs,and KBAs,respectively.Our findings support the prioritization of KBAs for expansion of site-based protection efforts such as NNRs in China,considering threats to species from exposure to adverse effects from both extreme climate and human pressure.

关键词： conservation floods human pressure mammals taxonomy

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Typhoon-and pollution-driven enhancement of reactive bromine in the mid-latitude marine boundary layer

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National Science Review 2024年第4期11卷 93-101页

作者： Shanshan Wang Qinyi Li Ruifeng Zhang Anoop Sharad Mahajan Swaleha Inamdar Nuria Benavent Sanbao Zhang Ruibin Xue Jian Zhu Chenji Jin Yan Zhang Xiao Fu Alba Badia Rafael P.Fernandez Carlos A.Cuevas Tao Wang Bin Zhou Alfonso Saiz-Lopez Institute for Interdisciplinary Science (ICB) National Research Council (CONICET) Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3) Department of Environmental Science and Engineering Fudan University Institute of Eco-Chongming(IEC) department of Atmospheric Chemistry and climate Institute of Physical Chemistry Blas CabreraCSIC department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Environment Research Institute Shandong University Centre for climate change Research Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyMinistry of Earth Sciences department of Chemistry University of Colorado Boulder Institute of Environment and Ecology Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate SchoolTsinghua University Sostenipra Research Group Institute of Environmental Science and Technology(ICTA)Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona(UAB)

Tropospheric reactive bromine is important for atmospheric chemistry,regional air pollution,and global climate.Previous studies have reported measurements of atmospheric reactive bromine species in different environments,and proposed their main sources,e.***.sea-salt aerosol（SSA）,oceanic biogenic activity,polar snow/ice,and volcanoes.Typhoons and other strong cyclonic activities（e.***.hurricanes） induce abrupt changes in different earth system processes,causing widespread destructive effects.However,the role of typhoons in regulating reactive bromine abundance and sources remains unexplored.Here,we report field observations of bromine oxide（BrO）,a critical indicator of reactive bromine,on the Huaniao Island（HNI）in the East China Sea in July 2018.We observed high levels of BrO below 500 m with a daytime average of9.7±4.2 pptv and a peak value of ～26 pptv under the influence of a typhoon.Our field measurements,supported by model simulations,suggest that the typhoon-induced drastic increase in wind speed amplifies the emission of SSA,significantly enhancing the activation of reactive bromine from SSA debromination.We also detected enhanced BrO mixing ratios under high NOxconditions（ppbv level） suggesting a potential pollution-induced mechanism of bromine release from SSA.Such elevated levels of atmospheric bromine noticeably increase ozone destruction by as much as ～40% across the East China Sea.Considering the high frequency of cyclonic activity in the northern hemisphere,reactive bromine chemistry is expected to play a more important role than previously thought in affecting coastal air quality and atmospheric oxidation capacity.We suggest that models need to consider the hitherto overlooked typhoon-and pollution-mediated increase in reactive bromine levels when assessing the synergic effects of cyclonic activities on the earth system.

关键词： reactive bromine atmospheric chemistry marine boundary layer atmospheric oxidation capacity marine emission

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Multi-Criteria Wildfire Risk Hazard Assessment in GIS Environment: Projection for the Future and Impact on RES Projects Installation Planning

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Journal of Geoscience and Environment Protection 2024年第5期12卷 242-265页

作者： Aggelos Pallikarakis Flora Konstantopoulou EXERGIA S.A. climate change Consultants Athens Greece

It is alarming for the fact that Wildfires number, severity and consequently impact have significantly increased during the last years, an aftermath of the climate change. One of the most affected areas worldwide is Mediterranean, due to the unique combination of its type of vegetation and demanding climatic conditions. This research is focused on the Region of Epirus in Greece, an area with significant natural vegetation and a range of geomorphological aspects. In order to estimate the Wildfire Risk Hazard, several factors have been used: geomorphological (slope, aspect, elevation, TWI, Hydrographic network), social (Settlements and landfils, roads, overhead lines and substations), environmental (land cover) and climatic (Fire Weather Index). Through a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) in a GIS environment, the Wildfire Risk Hazard has been estimated not only for current conditions but also for future projections for the near future (2031-2060) and the far future (2071-2100). The selected case study includes the potential impact of the Wildfires to the installed (or targeted to be installed) RES projects in the studied region.

关键词： RES Projects Greece Epirus Analytic Hierarchy Process Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis

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