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Construction and Application of a climate Risk Index for China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2018年第6期32卷 937-949页

作者： Yujie WANG Lianchun SONG Dianxiu YE Zhe WANG Rong GAO Xiucang LI Yizhou YIN Zunya WANG Yaoming LIAO Northwest climate center of gansu meteorological bureau Lanzhou 730020 National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 Caixin Insight Group Beijing 100027

In the context of global warming,China is facing with increasing climate *** is imperative to develop quantitative indices to reflect the climate risks caused by extreme weather/climate events and adverse climatic conditions in association with different *** on the observations at 2288 meteorological stations in China and the meteorological disasters data,a set of indices are developed to measure climate risks due to water-logging,drought,high temperature,cryogenic freezing,and typhoon.A statistical method is then used to construct an overall climate risk index(CRI)for China from these individual *** is a good correspondence between these indices and historical climatic *** CRI,the index of water-logging by rain,and the high temperature index increase at a rate of 0.28,0.37,and 0.65 per decade,respectively,from 1961 to *** cryogenic freezing index is closely related to changes in the consumer price index for *** high temperature index is correlated with the consumption of energy and *** correlation between the yearly growth in claims on household property insurance and the sum of the water-logging index and the typhoon index in the same year is as high as *** the growth rate of claims on agricultural insurance and the annual growth rate of hospital inpatients are positively correlated with the *** year-on-year growth in the number of domestic tourists is significantly negatively correlated with the CRI in the same *** efforts are needed to develop regional CRIs.

关键词： climate risk index construction economic activities correlation application and services

OBSERVATION AND ANALYSIS OF SEA SURFACE WIND OVER THE QIONGZHOU STRAIT

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2010年第4期16卷 402-408页

作者：许向春辛吉武梁国锋邢绪煌陈有龙谢寒生 Hainan Institute of meteorological Science Yangjiang meteorological bureau Guangdong Province Hainan climate center Hainan meteorological Observatory Hainan meteorological Information center

The spatial variation and diurnal fluctuation of sea surface wind over the Qiongzhou Strait were described using verified datasets from automatic weather stations on board a ferry, buoys, and on the coast. Results are as follows：（1） On average, sea surface wind speed is 34 m/s larger over the Qiongzhou Strait than in the coastal area. Sea surface wind speeds of 8.0 rrds or above （on Beaufort scale five） in the coastal area are associated with speeds 5-6 m/s greater over the surface of the Qiongzhou Strait. （2） Gust coefficients for the Qiongzhou Strait decrease along with increasing wind speeds. When coastal wind speed is less than scale five, the average gust coefficient over the sea surface is between 1.4 and 1.5; when wind speed is equal to scale five or above, the average gust coefficient is about 1.35. （3） In autumn and winter, the diurnal differences of average wind speed and wind consistency over the strait are less than those in the coastal area; when wind speed is 10.8 m/s （scale six） or above, the diurnal difference of average wind speed decreases while wind consistency increases for both the strait and the coast.

关键词： Qiongzhou Strait sea surface wind observational analysis statistical characteristics

ANALYSIS ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES MAKING LANDFALL ON DIFFERENT REGIONS OF CHINESE MAINLAND

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2013年第3期19卷 276-283页

作者：尹宜舟朱志存叶殿秀黄强 center for Earth System Science Tsinghua University National climate center China Meteorological Administer Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology Pinghu meteorological bureau Zhejiang Province Haining meteorological bureau Zhejiang Province

The locations(longitudes and latitudes)of the tropical cyclones(TCs)making landfall on the Chinese mainland from 1949 to 2008 are investigated in detail by using ArcGis and FORTRAN *** southeast coastline[110 to 122°E)with most landfall TCs was selected as the key region,which was divided into 12 subsections with 1°intervals of *** study period was from July to September in each *** result showed that the average sustaining time of TCs making landfall on the subsections east of 118°E is longer than those west of 118°*** landfall,the averaged TC intensity in the subsections east of118°E is stronger than that west of *** landfall,however,the difference between the west and east is not *** index of destructive potential for the period before/after landfall was defined as TDP1/*** maximum of TDP1/TDP2 occurred in the subsection of[119,120°E)/[110,111°E).The ENSO impact on the frequency and average location of landfall TC over the whole region at 110 to 122°E is not obvious,but the effect varies with specific *** is little differences of averaged TDP1 in the subsections between different phases of ENSO events,but the averaged TDP2 is larger in the warm events than that in the cold *** rainstorm days of each station caused by TCs in different subsections were counted *** results suggested that the rainstorm days of the subsections east of 118°E are much more than those west of 118°*** larger values are primarily distributed at the subsections of[119,120°E)and[110,111°E).

关键词： Chinese mainland landfall tropical cyclone characteristics analysis destructive potential rainstorm frequency

STUDY ON CLIMATIC CHARACTERISTICS OF CHINA-INFLUENCING TYPHOONS AND THE INTERRELATIONS BETWEEN THEM AND THEIR ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2008年第1期14卷 24-27页

作者：王咏梅李维京任福民王小玲 Yuncheng Weather bureau of Shanxi province National climate center China Meteorological Administration

Climatic characteristics of China-influencing typhoons (CIT) were analyzed in this paper. Main characteristics include:(1) CIT season is May-November, especially from July to September. (2) Frequency of the CIT shows a decreasing trend during 1951-2004, especially after the late period of the 1960s. (3) Strong CIT also shows an obvious decreasing trend. Meanwhile, there exist obvious interdecadal variations in the CIT genesis, being more southward and eastward than normal in 1960s-1970s, and more northward and westward than normal in the 1980s. In addition, the interrelations between CIT and its environmental factors show that CIT has close relationships with sea surface temperature and East Asian summer monsoon;the structure of the circulations in frequent CIT years is much different from that in infrequent CIT years.

关键词： China-influencing typhoons climatic characteristics interdecadal variations environmental factors

Sea surface temperature anomaly in the tropical North Atlantic during El Nino decaying years

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第6期14卷 14-19页

作者： Xinyu Duan Feng Xue Fei Zheng International center for climate and Environment Sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina climate center of meteorological bureau of gansu province LanzhouChina

Based on reanalysis data from 1979 to 2016,this study focuses on the sea surface temperature(SST)anomaly of the tropical North Atlantic(TNA)in El Nino decaying *** TNA SST exhibits a clear warm trend during this *** composite result for 10 El Nino events shows that the TNA SST anomaly reaches its maximum in spring after the peak of an El Nino event and persists until *** general,the anomaly is associated with three factors-namely,El Nino,the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and a long-term trend,leading to an increase in local SST up to 0.4℃,0.3℃,and 0.35℃,respectively.A comparison between 1983 and 2005 indicates that the TNA SST in spring is affected by El Niño,as well as the local SST in the preceding winter,which may involve a long-term trend *** addition,the lead-lag correlation shows that the NAO leads the TNA SST by 2-3 *** comparing two years with an opposite phase of the NAO in winter(i.e.,1992 and 2010),the authors further demonstrate that the NAO is another important factor in regulating the TNA SST anomaly.A negative phase of the NAO in winter will reinforce the El Nino forcing substantially,and vise *** other words,the TNA SST anomaly in the decaying years is more evident if the NAO is negative with El ***,the combined effects of El Nino and the NAO must be considered in order to fully understand the TNA SST variability along with a long-term trend.

关键词： Tropical North Atlantic Sea surface temperature anomaly North Atlantic Oscillation El Nino

Assessing the Ecological Quality of Nanjing during Its Urbanization Process by Using Satellite,meteorological,and Socioeconomic Data

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第2期34卷 280-293页

作者： Xin HANG Yachun LI Xiaochun LUO Min XU Xiuzhen HAN Jiangsu climate center Jiangsu Meteorological BureauNanjing 210008 Jiangsu meteorological Service center Jiangsu Meteorological BureauNanjing 210008 National Satellite meteorological center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Assessing the ecological status of different districts within a city undergoing urbanization is challenging given their complex surface types and fast pace of *** this study,we utilized satellite data obtained from Landsat5/TM(Thematic Mapper)and Landsat 8/OLI(Operational Land Imager)images in conjunction with meteorological and socioeconomic data to construct a remote sensing ecological index(RSEI)for monitoring the ecological quality of Nanjing,Jiangsu province.A higher RSEI value corresponded to better ecological *** ratings were associated with RSEI values of city districts:very poor,poor,average,good,and *** Nanjing,the percentage of areas evidencing good RSEI ratings decreased from 55.9%in 2000 to 48.0%in 2018,whereas there was a slight increase in areas with very poor RSEI ratings during this *** the 11 city districts,16.8%,21.8%,and 61.4%respectively evidenced the increasing,decreasing,and stable ecological quality relative to their quality in *** the11 administrative districts in Nanjing,the main urban districts evidenced increased RSEI values in 2018 compared with those in 2000,with the improved areas exceeding the ones that had deteriorated in these ***,the ecological quality of new urban and ed because of the urban expansion,with areas that had deteriorated exceeding the improved *** the three protected ecological zones,the quality of Zijin Mountain National Forest Park was considerably better than that of Laoshan and ***,the urbanization rate and RSEI evidenced a high negative correlation coefficient value(-0.76).The urbanization process of Nanjing induced a declining trend for the ecological quality,indicating the need of strong protection measures for the maintenance or improvement of its ecological environment.

关键词： ecological quality remote sensing ecological index(RSEI) urbanization

CHARACTERIZATION AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN DRY-WET CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN IN SOUTHWEST CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2015年第1期21卷 55-66页

作者：李栋梁徐栋夫王慧曲巧娜赵晓萌 Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Science NUIST meteorological bureau of Chengdu Shandong province Institute of meteorological Science climate center of Shaanxi province

Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 97 stations in Southwest China(SW China) from1960 to 2009, a dry-wet index is calculated. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditions,precipitation and temperature are studied. Then the abnormal atmospheric circulation characteristics are discussed using reanalysis data. The results show that SW China has exhibited an overall trend of autumnal drought since the late1980 s, and this drought trend became more significant early in the 2000 s, especially in the eastern SW China. Autumnal dry-wet variation in southwestern China showed two major modes: consistent change across the entire region and opposing changes in the eastern and western regions. The spatial distribution of dry-wet anomalies was more significantly affected by precipitation, while temporal variation in dry-wet conditions was more strongly influenced by temperature. The former mode is affected by the anomalies of the precedent SST near the Western Pacific Warm Pool,the Western Pacific Subtropical High, the East Asian Trough and the South Trough. The latter mode is related to the wind anomalies in the eastern SW China and the vertical movement in the western and eastern SW China. These are the main influencing factors for the autumn dry-wet variation in SW China, which are of great significance to the prediction of drought.

关键词： dry-wet characteristics EOF analysis Southwest China circulation characteristics SST

Bias Analysis and Correction of Ground Surface Temperature Observations across China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2020年第6期34卷 1324-1334页

作者： Yan CUI Wenhui XU Zijiang ZHOU Chunyu ZHAO Yihui DING Xue AO Xiaoyu ZHOU Shenyang Regional climate center Liaoning Meteorological BureauShenyang 110166 National meteorological Information center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081 National climate center China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

Based on the ground surface temperature(GST)and snow surface temperature(SST)measurements during the period of adjustment from manual to automatic observation systems in China,the influence of observation methods on GST and its relationship with snow cover is *** is corrected by SST,and the correction effect is *** results show that,during the parallel observation period,the winter GSTs from automatic observations are generally higher than those from manual observations,with the automatically observed national daily GST 1.18°C *** adjustment has a greater impact on GSTs at 0200,0800,and 2000 Beijing Time(BT)than at 1400 BT,and it has the greatest impact in Northeast and Northwest China,with deviations of 5.24 and 2.09°C,*** GST deviation is closely related to the snow depth and annual snow *** average daily GST deviation increases at the rate of 0.66°C per 1-cm increase of snow depth when it is<15 cm,while it tends to be stable at around 10°C for snow depth over 15 *** GST deviation at a station is affected by its winter snow totals in Northeast and Northwest China,where the largest deviations are found where snow totals are all above 1000 *** the correction with SST,the mean deviation between the automatic and manual observations as well as the false trend can be effectively *** the correction,the mean deviation of daily GST decreases by 5.8°C,and its trend decreases from 1.87 to 0.65°C decade-1.

关键词： ground surface temperature(GST)in winter snow cover correction China

climate Change Impacts on Central China and Adaptation Measures

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Advances in climate Change Research 2013年第4期4卷 215-222页

作者： REN Yong-Jian CUI Jiang-Xue WAN Su-Qin LIU Min CHEN Zheng-Hong LIAO Yu-Fang WANG Ji-Jun College of Atmospheric Science Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Wuhan Regional climate center meteorological bureau of Hubei province Hubei meteorological Service center climate center of Hunan province climate center of Henan province

In Central China, the obvious climate change has happened along with global warming. Based on the observational analysis, the climate change has significant effects, both positive and negative, in every field within the study area, and with the harmful effects far more prevalent. Under the A1B scenario, it is reported that temperature, precipitation, days of heat waves, and extreme precipitation intensity will increase at respective rates of 0.38℃ per decade, 12.6 mm per decade, 6.4 d and 47 mm per decade in the 21st century. It is widely believed that these climate changes in the future will result in some apparent impacts on agro-ecosystems, water resources, wetland ecosystem, forest ecosystem, human health, energy sectors and other sensitive fields in Central China. Due to the limited scientific knowledge and researches, there are still some shortages in the climate change assessment methodologies and many uncertainties in the climate prediction results. Therefore, it is urgent and essential to increase the studies of the regional climate change adaptation, extend the research fields, and enhance the studies in the extreme weather and climate events to reduce the uncertainties of the climate change assessments.

关键词： climate change impact assessment adaptation measure uncertainty Central China