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Application of the improved dung beetle optimizer,muti-head attention and hybrid deep learning algorithms to groundwater depth prediction in the Ningxia area,china

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 18-23页

作者： Jiarui Cai Bo Sun Huijun Wang Yi Zheng Siyu Zhou Huixin Li Yanyan Huang Peishu Zong Collaborative Innovation Center on forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment ChangeNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong laboratory(Zhuhai) ZhuhaiChina china meteorological administration Key Laboratory of Transportation MeteorologyNanjingChina Jiangsu meteorological Observatory NanjingChina

Due to the lack of accurate data and complex parameterization,the prediction of groundwater depth is a chal-lenge for numerical *** learning can effectively solve this issue and has been proven useful in the prediction of groundwater depth in many *** this study,two new models are applied to the prediction of groundwater depth in the Ningxia area,*** two models combine the improved dung beetle optimizer(DBO)algorithm with two deep learning models:The Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Long Short Term Memory networks(MH-CNN-LSTM)and the Multi-head Attention-Convolution Neural Network-Gated Recurrent Unit(MH-CNN-GRU).The models with DBO show better prediction performance,with larger R(correlation coefficient),RPD(residual prediction deviation),and lower RMSE(root-mean-square error).Com-pared with the models with the original DBO,the R and RPD of models with the improved DBO increase by over 1.5%,and the RMSE decreases by over 1.8%,indicating better prediction *** addition,compared with the multiple linear regression model,a traditional statistical model,deep learning models have better prediction performance.

关键词： Groundwater depth Multi-head attention Improved dung beetle optimizer CNN-LSTM CNN-GRU Ningxia

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Interannual variability of boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the northwestern Pacific influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 6-11页

作者： Haoyu Zhou Pang-Chi Hsu Lin Chen Yitian Qian key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological DisastersNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

During the boreal summer,intraseasonal oscillations exhibit significant interannual variations in intensity over two key regions:the central-western equatorial Pacific(5°S-5°N,150°E-150°W)and the subtropical Northwestern Pacific(10°-20°N,130°E-175°W).The former is well-documented and considered to be influenced by the ENSO,while the latter has received comparatively less attention and is likely influenced by the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM),as suggested by partial correlation analysis *** elucidate the physical processes responsible for the enhanced(weakened)intraseasonal convection over the subtropical northwestern Pacific during warm(cold)PMM years,the authors employed a moisture budget *** findings reveal that during warm PMM years,there is an increase in summer-mean moisture over the subtropical northwestern *** increase interacts with intensified vertical motion perturbations in the region,leading to greater vertical moisture advection in the lower troposphere and consequently resulting in convective *** a process is pivotal in amplifying intraseasonal convection *** observational findings were further verified by model experiments forced by PMM-like sea surface temperature patterns.

关键词： Boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation Interannual variability Pacific Meridional Mode Moisture budget analysis

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Impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal forecast of the 2014/15 marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific Ocean

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 24-31页

作者： Tiantian Tang Jiaying He Huihang Sun Jingjia Luo Institute for Climate and Application Research(ICAR)/key laboratory of meteorological Disaster Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina

A remarkable marine heatwave,known as the“Blob”,occurred in the Northeast Pacific Ocean from late 2013 to early 2016,which displayed strong warm anomalies extending from the surface to a depth of 300 *** study employed two assimilation schemes based on the global Climate Forecast System of Nanjing University of Information Science(NUIST-CFS 1.0)to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilation on the seasonal prediction of this extreme marine *** sea surface temperature(SST)nudging scheme assimilates SST only,while the deterministic ensemble Kalman filter(EnKF)scheme assimilates observations from the surface to the deep *** latter notably improves the forecasting skill for subsurface temperature anomalies,especially at the depth of 100-300 m(the lower layer),outperforming the SST nudging *** excels in predicting both horizontal and vertical heat transport in the lower layer,contributing to improved forecasts of the lower-layer warming during the *** improvements stem from the assimilation of subsurface observational data,which are important in predicting the upper-ocean *** results suggest that assimilating ocean data with the EnKF scheme significantly enhances the accuracy in predicting subsurface temperature anomalies during the Blob and offers better understanding of its underlying mechanisms.

关键词： Seasonal forecast Ocean data assimilation Marine heatwave Subsurface temperature

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Impacts of the annual cycle of background SST in the tropical Pacific on the phase and amplitude of ENSO

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2025年第1期18卷 12-17页

作者： Song Jiang Congwen Zhu Ning Jiang State key laboratory of Severe Weather(LASW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary Sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

The dominant annual cycle of sea surface temperature(SST)in the tropical Pacific exhibits an antisymmetric mode,which explains 83.4%total variance,and serves as a background of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,there is no consensus yet on its anomalous impacts on the phase and amplitude of *** on data during 1982-2022,results show that anomalies of the antisymmetric mode can affect the evolution of ENSO on the interannual scale via Bjerknes feedback,in which the positive(negative)phase of the antisymmetric mode can strengthen El Niño(La Niña)in boreal winter via an earlier(delayed)seasonal cycle transition and larger(smaller)annual *** magnitude of the SST anomalies in the equatorial eastern Pacific can reach more than±0.3◦C,regulated by the changes in the antisymmetric mode based on random sensitivity *** reveal the spatial pattern of the annual cycle associated with the seasonal phase-locking of ENSO evolution and provide new insight into the impact of the annual cycle of background SST on ENSO,which possibly carries important implications for forecasting ENSO.

关键词： Annual cycle SST anomaly Antisymmetric mode ENSO

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A rapid modeling method for urban microscale meteorology and its applications

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Science china Earth Sciences 2023年第10期66卷 2224-2238页

作者： Xiaoran GUO Chao YAN Shiguang MIAO Institute of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100089China key laboratory of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100089China

This paper introduces a fast urban microscale meteorological model with a horizontal resolution of O(10)m,named urban(urban Rapid&Building-Aware Neighborhood),which is capable of rapid assessment of meteorological fields over key urban areas,including wind speed,air temperature,humidity and thermal comfort index,with the execution time less than10 minutes consuming 1 CPU *** uses a fast wind diagnostic method to construct three-dimensional(3-D)wind fields surrounding complex building clusters with their geometry resolved *** enhance the accuracy of wind reconstruction and the continuity of the initial wind field around irregular buildings,we propose a new parameterization method based on stream functions,which can accurately characterize the influences of complex urban building clusters on the three-dimensional wind *** model can provide various results for the meteorological service of large outdoor activities,including conventional meteorological elements(wind,temperature,humidity,radiation,etc.)and the Universal Thermal Comfort Index,which is derived from the relationship between physiological processes and environmental meteorological *** this paper,urban is applied to develop an automatic analysis and forecast system of microscale meteorological elements over the central Beijing region in summer during a large outdoor *** comparing with the half-hourly observations from three auto weather stations(AWSs)in the region,the root-mean-square errors(RMSEs)of the modeled 10-meter-height wind speed,2-meter-height air temperature and humidity are 0.98 m s^(-1),1.37℃and 7.37%,respectively.

关键词： urban microscale meteorology Wind diagnose Fast simulation Human comfort index Weather service

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Sensitivity Simulations of the 30 March 2020 Xichang Wildfire in Southwest china Based on the WRF-Fire Model

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第4期38卷 826-843页

作者： Yujue LIU Shiguang MIAO Hanbin ZHANG Institute of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 key laboratory of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089

This paper describes a fire forecast system—Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire(WRF-Fire)—that is employed to simulate a real wildfire case in Xichang,Sichuan Province,Southwest china on 30 March 2020 at a 100-m resolution over the fire area,in order to provide a fine representation of the terrain and fuel heterogeneities and explicitly resolve the atmospheric *** sensitivity experiments were conducted to analyze the impacts of atmospheric model grid spacing and fire–atmosphere interaction on simulated meteorological fields and fire *** results indicate that finer horizontal grid spacing in the atmospheric model improves the accuracy of wind,temperature,and moisture simulations in the near surface ***,it can better describe local wind field characteristics,capture microscale wind speed fluctuations,and produce more significant effect from fire–atmosphere *** mass and energy released by the fire model and its feedback to the atmospheric model exhibit enhanced heterogeneous *** simulated fire area aligns well with the observation,with KAPPA coefficient(KC)of 0.56–0.59 and spatial correlation coefficient(SC) of 0.52–*** this real case,the influence of heterogeneous land surface on the fire behavior is much greater than the atmosphere–fire *** study suggests that WRFFire holds high potential as a real wildfire simulation tool,offering a new and feasible approach for fire prediction.

关键词： Weather Research and Forecasting-Fire wildfire coupled fire–atmosphere modeling fire behavior large-eddy simulation(LES)

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Constrained high-resolution projection of hot extremes in the BeijingeTianjineHebei region of china

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2023年第3期14卷 387-393页

作者： Jia-Xi YANG Bai-Quan ZHOU Pan-Mao ZHAI Institute of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China key laboratory of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089China State key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences 100081BeijingChina

The BeijingeTianjineHebei(BTH)region is the political center and one of the largest and most dynamic economic centers in *** to other regions of china,it faces greater challenges from increasing hot ***,future projections of regional changes in hot extremes based on multi-model ensembles carry huge *** improve the reliability of regional projections,we used the latest highresolution outputs from nine GCMs in CMIP6-HighResMIP and constrained the projection of hot extremes in this *** the BTH,the historical scaling of the annual maximum temperature with the mean summer(JuneeAugust)temperatures(TXx scaling)showed a significant linear relationship with the future TXx scaling in the multi-model *** comparing the observed and simulated historical TXx scaling we identified an observational constraint that could reduce the uncertainty of TXx *** believed that the simulations of EC-Earth3P,ECEarth3P-HR,MPI-ESM1-2-HR and MPI-ESM1-2-XR show advantages in simulating surface air temperature and related hot extremes in this *** demonstrated that surface air temperature projection in the BTH region constrained by observational constraint is more *** constrained projections,by the 2040s,the increase in summer surface air temperatures is projected to exceed 1C compared to ***,the estimated number of days of compound(sequential hot day-night)hot extremes(HND),independent hot nights(HNi)and independent hot days(HDi)was found to increase by 0.3,0.3,and-0.03 d per year during 2015-2049,*** growth in numbers of days of HND,HNi and HDi was slower after observational ***,the estimated increase in surface air temperature variables after constraint also *** study provides support for adaptation policy-making and as a reference for the use of observational constraint in other regions of china.

关键词： Observational constraint High-resolution projection Hot extremes BeijingeTianjineHebei region

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Comparative analysis of empirical and deep learning models for ionospheric sporadic E layer prediction

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2025年第1期9卷 10-19页

作者： BingKun Yu PengHao Tian XiangHui Xue Christopher JScott HaiLun Ye JianFei Wu Wen Yi TingDi Chen XianKang Dou Institute of Deep Space Sciences Deep Space Exploration LaboratoryHefei 230088China CAS key laboratory of Geospace Environment School of Earth and Space SciencesUniversity of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Hefei National laboratory University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230088China Department of meteorology University of ReadingReading RG66BBUK

Sporadic E(Es)layers in the ionosphere are characterized by intense plasma irregularities in the E region at altitudes of 90-130 *** they can significantly influence radio communications and navigation systems,accurate forecasting of Es layers is crucial for ensuring the precision and dependability of navigation satellite *** this study,we present Es predictions made by an empirical model and by a deep learning model,and analyze their differences comprehensively by comparing the model predictions to satellite RO measurements and ground-based ionosonde *** deep learning model exhibited significantly better performance,as indicated by its high coefficient of correlation(r=0.87)with RO observations and predictions,than did the empirical model(r=0.53).This study highlights the importance of integrating artificial intelligence technology into ionosphere modelling generally,and into predicting Es layer occurrences and characteristics,in particular.

关键词： ionospheric sporadic E layer radio occultation ionosondes numerical model deep learning model artificial intelligence

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Quantify urbanization-Induced Precipitation and Runoff Anomalies over the Qinhuai River Basin of china: Sensitivity Experiments with WRF-Hydro

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Journal of meteorological Research 2024年第5期38卷 999-1020页

作者： Jie WANG Shiguang MIAO Fei CHEN Institute of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 key laboratory of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 china meteorological administration Hydro-meteorology key laboratory Beijing 100081 Division of Environment and Sustainability The Hong Kong University of Science and TechnologyHong Kong 999077China

urbanization-related precipitation and surface runoff changes have been widely investigated,but few studies have directly quantified these changes and their link to urbanization in the hydrological cycle.A two-way dynamically coupled atmospheric–hydrological modeling system,Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-Hydro,has been applied in this study to perform the *** offline WRF-Hydro was first calibrated and validated for several flooding events against gauge observed streamflow data,with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency reaching *** to the WRF model,WRF-Hydro resolves more detailed rainfall pattern features and reproduces the gauge rainfall with a correlation coefficient of ***,the impact of urbanization on hydrometeorological processes was investigated with coupled WRF-Hydro sensitivity simulations over the Qinhuai River basin of china during 2 June–31 July *** results indicate that urbanization enhances regional precipitation,resulting in an indirect increase in surface runoff,overland flow,and streamflow by 16.7,93.5,and 111.2 mm,respectively;however,the impervious area results in higher surface runoff,overland flow,and ***,changes in main hydrometeorological processes further impact the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget,resulting in a decrease in terrestrial water storage and an increase(a decrease)in precipitable water storage in the middle(lower)parts of the lower *** changes are likely associated with the warmer urban environment than rural *** water vapor and strengthened convective conditions in the middle part of the lower troposphere due to urban warming are advantageous to the formation of precipitation in urban areas,which in turn increases surface runoff,thereby facilitating the water cycle and altering the atmospheric–terrestrial water budget.

关键词： urbanization atmospheric-terrestrial water budget coupled Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF)-Hydro model thermodynamic condition

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Performance of the CRA-40/Land,CMFD,and ERA-Interim Datasets in Reflecting Changes in Surface Air Temperature over the Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of meteorological Research 2021年第4期35卷 663-672页

作者： Jiaxi YANG Mengtian HUANG Panmao ZHAI Institute of urban meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100089 State key laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081

We analyzed the spatiotemporal variations in surface air temperature and key climate change indicators over the Tibetan Plateau during a common valid period from 1979 to 2018 to evaluate the performance of different datasets on various *** used observations from 22 in-situ observation sites,the CRA-40/Land(CRA)reanalysis dataset,the china meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD),and the ERA-Interim(ERA)reanalysis *** three datasets are spatially consistent with the in-situ observations,but slightly underestimate the annual mean surface air *** daily mean surface air temperature estimated by the CRA,CMFD,and ERA datasets is closer to the in-situ observations after correction for *** CMFD shows the best performance in simulating the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau,followed by the CRA and ERA datasets with comparable *** CMFD is relatively accurate in simulating the daily mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau on an annual scale,whereas both the CRA and ERA datasets perform better in summer than in *** increasing trends in the annual mean surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau from 1979 to 2018 reflected by the CRA dataset and the CMFD are 0.5℃(10 yr)^(-1),similar to the in-situ observations,whereas the warming rate in the ERA dataset is only 0.3℃(10 yr)^(-1).The trends in the length of the growing season derived from the in-situ observations,the CRA,CMFD,and ERA datasets are 5.3,4.8,6.1,and 3.2 day(10 yr)^(-1),*** analyses suggest that both the CRA dataset and the CMFD perform better than the ERA dataset in modeling the changes in surface air temperature over the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： Tibetan Plateau surface air temperature CRA-40/Land(CRA) china meteorological Forcing Dataset(CMFD) ERA-Interim(ERA)

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