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银行家 2004年第6期 98-98页

作者： Stephen Roach The wrtter chief economist at morgan stanley

The world has at last embraced the Chinese growth miracle. But in doing so it may be missing an important reality check. Two problems have recently emerged in the Chinese economy: a credit bubble and inflation. The good news is that China is already coping with these issues. The bad news is that the world may be unprepared for the impact of a Chinese slowdown.

关键词：中国经济增长率经济政策投资环境

China's Looming Transition--From Manufacturing to Consumption

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China's Looming Transition--From Manufacturing to Consumptio...

北京论坛（2005）文明的和谐与共同繁荣——全球化视野中亚洲的机遇与发展

作者： Stephen S.Roach economist morgan stanley

Beijing Forum 2005Ⅰ.Global context·China is the most important experiment in the laboratory of globalization·That means we must take the global context seriously in assessing Chinese prospects·My basic global premise is that an unbalanced world is in serious need ofrebalancing·The coming global rebalancing will involve all major countries in the world -- including the US, Europe,Japan,and even China·This rebalancing will entail important transitions for all

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Storm Clouds Ahead

China International Business 2006年第9期 31-31页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

The global macro environment looks to be evolving in the least favorable direction for Asia. United States retail sales are surprising on the downside, and oil prices are surprising, on the upside. The US is the biggest market for exportoriented Asia, and oil prices are the biggest input for the manufacturing-heavy region. If the current trend continues for another six months, I think it could push several economies in the region into recession.

关键词：中东冲突石油问题石油价格美国因素金融市场

Regional Constraints on Macro Management

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China International Business 2006年第10期 31-31页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

The five coastal provinces of Guangdong, Fujian, Zhejiang, Shanghai and Jiangsu account for one fifth of the country＇s population and dominate China＇s international competitiveness. Even though these provinces are experiencing faster increase in wage, land and other costs, their dominance in the country＇s international trade is still increasing. Any large country has substantial regional disparity but China＇s is bigger and more persistent than most.

关键词：宏观管理沿海城市城市经济中国贸易

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Beyond the Boom

China International Business 2006年第7期 31-31页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

＂At present, the two countries appear to favor a muddling-through approach, that is to deal with an issue only if it appears to be an imminent threat to growth＂.

关键词： GDP 中国经济印度经济发展模式

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Rate Hikes Ahead

China International Business 2006年第8期 31-31页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

Since 2003, the RMB appreciation expectation has exceeded the gap in interest rates between the United States and China. and this has prevented China＇s central bank from raising rates. As the potential for raising rates emerges, China is likely to seize this opportunity to tighten monetary policy, especially as lending is still substantially above the government＇s target. I believe that China could raise its deposit rate by 27 basic points before August and a further 27 basic points before year-end. Lending rates will likely rise in line with deposit rates but could be less given that China only raised lending rates, not deposit rates, last time.

关键词：人民币汇率中国美元利率银行

Sino-US Trade Relations

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China International Business 2006年第5期 28-28页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

United States senators Charles Schumer and Lindsey Graham have introduced a bill to impose a 27.5 percent across-the-board tariff on Chinese imports unless China revalues its currency by a similar amount. The two senators recently visited China. Media reports suggest that the view of at least one of the senators has since changed and the bill is likely to be postponed. This has been portrayed as a trade war averted.

关键词：中国美国对外贸易贸易摩擦贸易逆差

Avoiding a BoP Hangover

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China International Business 2006年第6期 31-31页

作者： ANDY XIE Asia Pacific economist of morgan stanley

How should China should best handle its massive balance of payment surplus？

关键词：中国收支平衡国内生产总值投资消费