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The Necessity and Feasibility of An Economic Growth Target of Around 5%

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China Forex 2024年第2期 22-31页

作者： WEN Bin WANG Jingwen chief economist of China Minsheng Bank Macro Research Center of China Minsheng Bank Research Institute

The Report on the Work of the Government 2024(hereinafter referred to as the Report)has set an annual GDP growth target of approximately 5%,aligning with market *** the economic fundamentals,there exists significant p... 详细信息

关键词： Government expectations market

Deepening Financial System Reform to Advancee Chinese Modernization

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China Forex 2024年第3期 28-32页

作者： LIAN Ping LIU Tao GDD-CCEF Industry Research Institute and the Chairman of the China chief economist Forum GDD-CCEF Industry Research Institute

In July 2024,the third plenary session of the 2oth Central Committee of the Communist Party of China was held in *** this session,the Resolution of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Further Deepening Reform Comprehensively to Advance Chinese Modernization(hereinafter referred to as"Resolution")was *** Resolution clearly defines the guiding philosophy,overall objectives,and general principles for further deepening reform *** emphasizes that"We must pursue coordinated reforms in the fiscal,tax,financial,and other major sectors",and outlines a series of significant deployments for deepening financial system reform.

关键词： deepening Financial Advance

Influence of RMB Cross-border Settlement on the Chinese Economy

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China & World Economy 2016年第1期24卷 104-122页

作者： Qiyuan Xu Fan He chief economist Caixin Insight Group and Senior Economic Fellow Institute for New Economic Thinking

In 2014, the amount of RMB cross-border settlement had reached RMB7.6tn. It is important to evaluate the potential influence of RMB internationalization on China＇s macroeconomy. In the present study, a framework that includes monetary supply and demand was created to analyze the influences of RMB cross-border settlement on China＇s domestic interest rate, asset price and foreign exchange reserves. It is found that RMB settlement in different BOP items leads to very different effects on China＇s real economy and the financial market. Based on the analysis, we provide a framework of the policy priorities for RMB internationalization, with the RMB cross-border settlement items divided into three groups with different priorities. Meanwhile, to support RMB internationalization, exchange rate reforms should be adopted as a priority and a prudent attitude maintained regarding capital account liberalization.

关键词： Chinese economy influence monetary policy RMB internationalization

Pass-through Effects of Global Commodity Prices on China's Inflation:An Empirical Investigation

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China & World Economy 2008年第6期16卷 22-34页

作者： Ligang Liu Andrew Tsang chief economist for China Research Department Bank Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria （BBVA）Hong Kong Branch Principal economist Research DepartmentBBVA Hong Kong Branch

The present paper uses a two-step approach to estimate the pass-through effects of changes in international commodity prices and the RMB exchange rate on domestic consumer price inflation in China. We first estimate the pass-through effects of international commodity prices on producer prices and then estimate the pass-through effects of producer price inflation on consumer price inflation. We find that a l O-percent increase in international commodity prices would lead to China＇ s producer prices increasing by 1.2 percent 3 months later, which in turn would increase China＇ s domestic inflation by 0.24 percent over the same period. However, a 10-percent appreciation of the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar would help to reduce increases in producer prices by 4.4 percent over the following 3 months, which in turn would lead to a 0. 89-percent decline in consumer price inflation over the same period. Our findings suggest that appreciation of the RMB in an environment of rising global commodity prices and a weak US dollar could be an effective instrument to help contain inflation in China.

关键词： China commodity price exchange rate pass-through

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Future Of Oil

China Oil & Gas 2018年第4期25卷 3-9页

作者： Laszlo Varro chief economist of International Energy Agency(IEA)

Oil is the number one energy source of the global economy. It became the number one energy source in the1950s, and has kept that title ever since. Around five years ago, when coal consumption was growing very rapidly here in China, we thought that coal might bypass oil, but that did not happen. Coal consumption slowed down in China, whereas oil demand is still growing at the rate of more than a million metric tons a year.

关键词：全球经济精力中国消费

Institutional Development of the Countries along the Belt and Road towards Attracting FDI

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China Economic Transition 2018年第1期1卷 20-35页

作者： Mao Zhenhua Yuan Haixia Renmin University of China chief economist Office in CCXI

Aglance over the development of the world economy shows that international capital flows are the surest way for allocating factor flows against the backdrop of *** countries along the Belt and Road are in the early stages of economic development,international direct investment can help these countries promote economic growth through facilitating capital formation,upgrading technologies,and other aspects.

关键词： investment upgrading Road

RMB Devaluation is Unlikely

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China International Business 2009年第2期 54-55页

作者： ANDY XIE Analyst and former MorganStanley chief Asia economist

Market expectation on the RMB has reversed and depreciation expectations are gaining traction. I think the RMB- dollar cross will remain stable over the next i2 months, but both the RMB and the dollar will likely depreciate against other currencies during the course of this year. In i998, the RMB-dollar peg played a stabilizing role, though they appreciated against other currencies. In 2009, the peg will again play a stabilizing role, though this time they will depreciate together.

关键词：市场预测货币贬值人民币货币流通

CHINA'S BANKING REFORM in Progress

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China's Foreign Trade 2009年第9期 56-60页

作者： Erh-Cheng Hwa chief economist ResearchChina Construction Bank

The World Bank （1997） once claimed that China＇s financial sector was the soft-belly in the economy. Financial sector reform has long been argued as neces- sary to raise efficiency in the use of the capital and in rebalancing the economy toward consumption-based growth, with- out which the country＇s growth sustain- ability is in jeopardy （see Lardy （1998）; Prasad （2007））. Indeed, not too long ago, China＇s state banks were deemed “techni-cally insolvent” and their survival hinged solely on the nation＇s abundant liquidity. However, after the launching of banking reform, strong profitability has returned to state commercial banks recently. The aim of this paper is not to evaluate the effect of banking reform on bank performance, which is better tackled after the completion of a full credit cycle. Rather, our aim is to take stock on the progress in reforming China＇s state banks by reviewing the banking reform strategy and analyzing their recent strong post-reform financial performance which, however, cannot be entirely separated from reform efforts undertaken thus far.

关键词：银行改革国有商业银行经济增长金融部门银行业绩银行业改革世界银行持续能力

China's Looming Transition——From Manufacturing to Consumption

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China's Looming Transition——From Manufacturing to Consumpt...