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Observational Facts Regarding the Joint Activities of the Southwest Vortex and Plateau Vortex after Its Departure from the Tibetan Plateau

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2016年第1期33卷 34-46页

作者： Shuhua YU Wenliang GAO Dixiang XIAO Jun PENG Institute of Plateau Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationChengdu 610072 Ya'an meteorological bureau Ya'an 625000 Sichuan meteorological Observatory Chengdu 610072

Using atmospheric observational data from 1998 to 2013,station rainfall data,TRMM（Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission） data,as well as annual statistics for the plateau vortex and shear line,the joint activity features of sustained departure plateau vortexes（SDPVs） and southwest vortexes（SWVs） are *** new and useful observational facts and understanding are obtained about the joint activities of the two types of *** results show that：（1） The joint active period of the two vortexes is from May to August,and mostly in June and July.（2） The SDPVs of the partnership mainly originate near Zaduo,while the SWVs come from Jiulong.（3） Most of the two vortexes move in almost the same direction,moving eastward together with the low *** SDPVs mainly act in the area to the north of the Yangtze River,while the SWVs are situated across the Yangtze River valley.（4） The joint activity of the two vortexes often produces sustained regional heavy rainfall to the south of the Yellow River,influencing wide areas of China,and even as far as the Korean Peninsula,Japan and Vietnam.（5） Most of the two vortexes are baroclinic or cold vortexes,and they both become strengthened in terms of their joint activity.（6） When the two vortexes move over the sea,their central pressure descends and their rainfall increases,especially for SWVs.（7） The two vortexes might spin over the same area simultaneously when there are tropical cyclones in the eastern and southern seas of China,or move southward together if a tropical cyclone appears near Hainan Island.

关键词： plateau vortex southwest vortex observational study

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Deep learning-based subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction in southwest China:Algorithm comparison and sensitivity to input features

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2023年第4期7卷 471-486页

作者： GuoLu Gao Yang Li XueYun Zhou XiaoMing Xiang JiaQi Li ShuCheng Yin Ya’an meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauYa’an Sichuan 625000China Plateau and Basin Rainstorm Drought and Flood Key Laboratory of Sichuan ProvinceChengdu 610000China College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China meteorological Observation and Data Centre Sichuan Meteorological BureauChengdu 610072China Leshan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauLeshan Sichuan 614000China Quanzhou meteorological Observatory Fujian Meteorological BureauQuanzhou Fujian 362000China

The prediction of precipitation at subseasonal to seasonal(S2S)timescales remains an enormous challenge because of the gap between weather and climate *** study compares three deep learning algorithms,namely,the long short-term memory recurrent(LSTM),gated recurrent unit(GRU),and recurrent neural network(RNN),and selects the optimal algorithm to establish an S2S precipitation prediction *** models were evaluated in four subregions of the Sichuan Province:the Plateau,Valley,eastern Basin,and western *** results showed that the RNN model had better performance than the LSTM and GRU *** could be because the RNN model had an advantage over the LSTM model in the transformation of climate indices with positive and negative *** the validation of test datasets,the RNN model successfully predicted the precipitation trend in most years during the wet season(May-October).The RNN model had a lower prediction bias(within±10%),higher sign accuracy of the precipitation trend(~88.95%),and greater accuracy of the maximum precipitation month(>0.85).For the prediction of different lead times,the RNN model was able to provide a stable trend prediction for summer precipitation,and the time correlation coefficient score was higher than that of the National Climate Center of ***,this study proposed a method to measure the sensitivity of the RNN model to different input features,which may provide unprecedented insights into the nonlinear relationship and complicated feedback process among climate *** results of the sensitivity distribution are as ***,the Niño 4 and Niño 3.4 indices were equally important for the prediction of wet season ***,the sensitivity of the snow cover on the Tibetan Plateau was higher than that in the Northern ***,an opposite sensitivity appeared in two different patterns of the Indian Ocean and sea ice concentrations in the Arctic and the Barents Sea.

关键词： recurrent neural network long short-term memory recurrent sensitivity analysis artificial intelligence explainability complex terrain southwest China

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Comparative Analysis of Energy Characteristics of Two Southwest Vortices in Sichuan Under Similar Circulation Backgrounds

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第2期30卷 168-179页

作者：周春花张驹肖红茹 Sichuan meteorological Disaster Prevention Technology Center Chengdu 610072 China chengdu meteorological bureau Chengdu 610072 China Sichuan meteorological Observatory Chengdu 610072 China

Based on ERA5 reanalysis data,the present study analyzed the thermal energy development mechanism and kinetic energy conversion characteristics of two extreme rainstorm processes in relation to the shallow southwest vortex in the warm-sector during a“rain-generated vortex”process and the deep southwest vortex in a“vortex-generated rain”*** findings were as follows:(1)During the extreme rainstorm on August 11,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·11”process),intense surface heating and a high-energy unstable environment were *** mesoscale convergence system triggered convection to produce heavy rainfall,and the release of latent condensation heat generated by the rainfall promoted the formation of a southwest *** significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy preceded the increase(decrease)in *** contrast,the extreme rainstorm on August 16,2020(hereinafter referred to as the“8·16”process)involved the generation of southwest vortex in a low-energy and highhumidity *** dynamic uplift of the southwest vortex triggered rainfall,and the release of condensation latent heat from rainfall further strengthened the development of the southwest *** significant increase(decrease)in atmospheric diabatic heating and kinetic energy exhibited a delayed progression compared to the increase(decrease)in vorticity.(2)The heating effect around the southwest vortex region was non-uniform,and the heating intensity varied in different *** the“8·11”process,the heating effect was the strongest in the initial stage,but weakened during the vortex's *** the contrary,the heating effect was initially weak in the“8·16”process,and intensified during the development stage.(3)The available potential energy of the“8·11”process significantly increased in kinetic energy converted from rotational and divergent winds through baroclinic action,and the divergent wind energy continued to convert into rotatio

关键词： southwest vortex similar circulation background diabatic heating kinetic energy spatial non-uniform heating effect

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meteorological Tower Observed CO_(2)Flux and Footprint in the Forest of Xiaoxing’an Mountains,Northeast China

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Journal of meteorological Research 2023年第1期37卷 126-140页

作者： Pengfei SUN Zhe QU Chao YUAN Yuan YUAN Chao WANG Qingyu JIA Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang 110166 Wuying National Climate Observatory Fenglin 153036 Yichun meteorological bureau Yichun 153000 College of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225 Panjin meteorological bureau Panjin 124010 Heihe meteorological bureau Heihe 164300

The Xiaoxing’an Mountains,located in the temperate monsoon climate zone in Northeast China,have the largest and most complete virgin Korean pine forest in Asia,which has great potential for carbon *** on the observational data of the eddy-covariance system at Wuying National Climate Observatory in January 2015–November 2017,the CO_(2)flux in the forest ecosystem around the observatory was quantitatively studied and the distribution characteristics of the flux source area were analyzed by the Kljun model and the Agroscope Reckenholz–Tänikon footprint tool,providing references for assessing the carbon source/sink potential of the unique forest *** results showed that the annual total carbon flux around the observatory in 2015,2016,and 2017 was−756.84,−834.73,and−629.37 gC m−2,respectively,higher than that of other forest *** forest of the study area in the Xiaoxing’an Mountains was a strong carbon sink,with the strongest carbon fixation capacity in June and weakest in October,and the carbon flux of each month was less than *** flux source area under stable atmospheric conditions was larger than that under unstable conditions,and the source area was larger in the nongrowing season than in the growing *** size of the source area was largest in winter,followed by spring,autumn,and *** maximum length of the source area was 1614.12 m(5639.33 m)under unstable(stable)conditions when the flux contribution rate was 90%.The peak flux contribution was located near the sensor(i.e.,within 200 m)in all *** contribution of the source area from the coniferous and broadleaved mixed forest on the west side of the observatory was greater than(3.4 times)that from the Korean pine forest on the east side.

关键词： Xiaoxing’an Mountains forest ecosystem CO_(2)flux CO_(2)source/sink CO_(2)spectra carbon sequestration Kljun model footprint

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A hybrid model for short-term rainstorm forecasting based on a back-propagation neural network and synoptic diagnosis

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2021年第5期14卷 13-18页

作者： Guolu Gao Yang Li Jiaqi Li Xueyun Zhou Ziqin Zhou Yaan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauYaanChina College of Atmospheric Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengduChina Leshan meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauLeshanChina Nanchong meteorological Observatory Sichuan Meteorological BureauNanchongChina

Rainstorms are one of the most important types of natural disaster in *** order to enhance the ability to forecast rainstorms in the short term,this paper explores how to combine a back-propagation neural network(BPNN)with synoptic diagnosis for predicting rainstorms,and analyzes the hit rates of rainstorms for the above two methods using the county of Tianquan as a case *** showed that the traditional synoptic diagnosis method still has an important referential meaning for most rainstorm types through synoptic typing and statistics of physical quantities based on historical cases,and the threat score(TS)of rainstorms was more than ***,the accuracy for two rainstorm types influenced by low-level easterly inverted troughs was less than 40%.The BPNN method efficiently forecasted these two rainstorm types;the TS and equitable threat score(ETS)of rainstorms were 0.80 and 0.79,*** TS and ETS of the hybrid model that combined the BPNN and synoptic diagnosis methods exceeded the forecast score of multi-numerical simulations over the Sichuan Basin without *** kind of hybrid model enhanced the forecasting accuracy of *** findings of this study provide certain reference value for the future development of refined forecast models with local features.

关键词： Rainstorm Short-term prediction method Back-propagation neural network Hybrid forecast model

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A Scheme for Pixel-Scale Aerodynamic Surface Temperature over Hilly Land

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2004年第1期21卷 125-131页

作者：闵文彬陈忠明孙林生高文良罗秀陵杨廷荣蒲剑黄光伦杨秀蓉 The Institute of Plateau meteorological Sciences China Meteorological Administration Chengdu 610072 Meteorogical bureau of Lezhi County Sichuan Lezhi 641500 Sichuan Agrometeorological Center Chengdu 610072

Hilly-land satellite pixel-scale aerodynamic surface temperatures (AdST) are investigated using LAS (Large Aperture Scintillometer) and meteorological observations during 21-22 May 2001, indicating that the calculated temperatures are predominantly subject to estimated roughness lengths and, to a less extent, to estimated Bowen ratios, with errors to within 3.0 K between the AdST calculations and hilly radiometric surface temperatures retrieved from satellite data with the split window model. The errors depend heavily on the model used and the zenith angles and azimuth of the satellite and sun with respect to the observational site.

关键词： aerodynamic surface temperature large aperture scintillometer radiation temperature sensible heat flux

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A PROBABLE AVENUE TO EFFECT OF POLAR ICE ON NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 1987年第2期6卷 190-195页

作者：方之芳高玉庄代民 chengdu Institute of Meteorology chengdu meteorological Department of the Xing’an League Nei Mongol meteorological bureau Xing’an

This paper is based on the data for the period from 1953 to 1977, which are the monthly averaged ice cover in the Arctic area within 160° E-110° W and north of 50?N, the areal index of the North Pacific subtropical high and the monthly averaged sea surface temperature of the North Pacific. A statistical analysis of the lag correlations between the polar ice from November to July and the sea surface temperature from January to July, and the sea surface temperature from January to July and the subtropical high lagging zero through eleven months is *** analysis shows that the lag correlation regions between the polar ice during spring and the sea surface temperature almost coincide with the regions of the California Current and the paitial north equatorial current, and the regions of the California Current and the partial north equatorial current coincide with the principal lag correlation regions between the sea surface temperature and the subtropical high. All the results suggest that the tra

关键词： SST high A PROBABLE AVENUE TO EFFECT OF POLAR ICE ON NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL HIGH ICE

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Ground validation of Fengyun-4A and Global Precipitation Measurement satellite observations over an alpine and canyon basin of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau

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Journal of Mountain Science 2022年第12期19卷 3568-3581页

作者： LONG Yin-ping CHEN Gong-yan MA Qin-min CHEN Jun College of Environmental and Resource Science Chengdu University of Information TechnologyChengdu 610225China Linzhi meteorological bureau Linzhi 860000China

Satellite-based precipitation observations with high spatiotemporal resolution are essential for studying rainfall-induced natural hazards,especially in alpine and canyon areas of the southeastern Tibetan Plateau,which are prone to such hazards yet sparsely ***,we evaluated precipitation estimated from the Chinese Fengyun-4A meteorological satellite(FY-4A AGRI)versus the Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM(IMERG),by using rain gauge data collected in the Parlung Zangbo Basin from May through September in both 2018 and *** results showed that(1)FY-4A AGRI generated smaller values of RMSE(root mean square error)on hourly to daily scales,and larger correlation coefficients(R-values)and smaller RMSE values for both moderate and heavy rain,indicating its greater accuracy at rainfall estimation,which is most likely due to the denser rain gauge network at a finer temporal scale used when calibrating FY-4A AGRI;(2)Both satellite products underestimated the volume of moderate and heavy rain,with the larger degree of underestimation by FY-4A AGRI,which could lower their performance in flood monitoring and forecasting;(3)Worse performance and greater inconsistency between the two products were observed in high-elevation areas,perhaps because of orographic cloud effects in these mountainous areas;and(4)Both products revealed that the Gangrigabu Range blocked incoming water vapor from the southwest monsoon,with a better representation of the spatial pattern and spatial variability produced by *** improve precipitation estimation,the effects of complex terrain should be explicitly incorporated into the retrieval algorithms,with more gauged observations in a denser network and at a finer temporal scale needed to robustly calibrate the satellite-based estimates.

关键词： Satellite precipitation Evaluation Fengyun satellite IMERG Mountainous area Parlung Zangbo Basin

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Analysis of a Vortex Precipitation Event over Southwest China Using AIRS and In Situ Measurements

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2017年第4期34卷 559-570页

作者： Chengcheng NI Guoping LI Xiaozhen XIONG School of Atmospheric Sciences Chengdu University of Information Technology meteorological Observatory Chengdu Meteorological Bureau Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Centre of Satellite Application and Research NOAACollege Park

A strong precipitation event caused by the southwest vortex（SWV）, which affected Sichuan Province and Chongqing municipality in Southwest China on 10–14 July 2012, is investigated. The SWV is examined using satellite observations from AIRS（Atmospheric Infrared Sounder）, in situ measurements from the SWV intensive observation campaign, and MICAPS（Marine Interactive Computer-Aided Provisioning System） data. Analysis of this precipitation process revealed that：（1）heavy rain occurred during the development phase, and cloud water content increased significantly after the dissipation of the SWV;（2） the area with low outgoing longwave radiation values from AIRS correlated well with the SWV;（3） variation of the temperature of brightness blackbody（TBB） from AIRS reflected the evolution of the SWV, and the values of TBB reduced significantly during the SWV＇s development; and（4） strong temperature and water vapor inversions were noted during the development of the SWV. The moisture profile displayed large vertical variation during the SWV＇s puissant phase,with the moisture inversion occurring at low levels. The moisture content during the receding phase was significantly reduced compared with that during the developing and puissant phases. The vertical flux of vapor divergence explained the variation of the moisture profile. These results also indicate the potential for using AIRS products in studying severe weather over the Tibetan Plateau and its surroundings, where in situ measurements are sparse.

关键词： precipitation event AIRS southwest vortex temperature profile moisture profile

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CHARACTERIZATION AND CAUSAL ANALYSIS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL VARIATION IN DRY-WET CONDITIONS IN AUTUMN IN SOUTHWEST CHINA

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2015年第1期21卷 55-66页

作者：李栋梁徐栋夫王慧曲巧娜赵晓萌 Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of meteorological Disasters/Key Laboratory of meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education/School of Atmospheric Science NUIST meteorological bureau of chengdu Shandong Province Institute of meteorological Science Climate Center of Shaanxi Province

Based on the daily precipitation and temperature data of 97 stations in Southwest China(SW China) from1960 to 2009, a dry-wet index is calculated. The spatiotemporal variation characteristics of dry-wet conditions,precipitation and temperature are studied. Then the abnormal atmospheric circulation characteristics are discussed using reanalysis data. The results show that SW China has exhibited an overall trend of autumnal drought since the late1980 s, and this drought trend became more significant early in the 2000 s, especially in the eastern SW China. Autumnal dry-wet variation in southwestern China showed two major modes: consistent change across the entire region and opposing changes in the eastern and western regions. The spatial distribution of dry-wet anomalies was more significantly affected by precipitation, while temporal variation in dry-wet conditions was more strongly influenced by temperature. The former mode is affected by the anomalies of the precedent SST near the Western Pacific Warm Pool,the Western Pacific Subtropical High, the East Asian Trough and the South Trough. The latter mode is related to the wind anomalies in the eastern SW China and the vertical movement in the western and eastern SW China. These are the main influencing factors for the autumn dry-wet variation in SW China, which are of great significance to the prediction of drought.

关键词： dry-wet characteristics EOF analysis Southwest China circulation characteristics SST

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