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A STAMP-Game model for accident analysis in oil and gas industry

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Petroleum Science 2024年第3期21卷 2154-2167页

作者： Huixing Meng Xu An Daiwei Li Shijun Zhao Enrico Zio Xuan Liu Jinduo Xing State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and safety protection Beijing Institute of TechnologyBeijing100081China School of Emergency Management and safety Engineering China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)Beijing100083China Energy Department Politecnico di MilanoVia La Masa 34Milan20156Italy Mines Paris PSL Centre de Recherche sur les Risques et les CrisesSophie Antipolis06904France School of Mechanical-Electronic and Vehicle Engineering Beijing University of Civil Engineering and ArchitectureBeijing100044China

Accidents in engineered systems are usually generated by complex socio-technical *** is beneficial to investigate the increasing complexity and coupling of these factors from the perspective of system *** on system and control theories,System-Theoretic Accident Model and Processes(STAMP)is a widely recognized approach for accident *** this paper,we propose a STAMP-Game model to analyze accidents in oil and gas storage and transportation *** in accident analysis by STAMP can be regarded as players of a *** theory can,thus,be adopted in accident analysis to depict the competition and cooperation between ***,we established a game model to study the strategies of both supervisory and supervised *** obtained results demonstrate that the proposed game model allows for identifying the effectiveness deficiency of the supervisory entity,and the safety and protection altitudes of the supervised *** STAMP-Game model can generate quantitative parameters for supporting the behavior and strategy selections of the supervisory and supervised *** quantitative data obtained can be used to guide the safety improvement,to reduce the costs of safety regulation violation and accident risk.

关键词： Accident analysis STAMP System engineering Gametheory Oil and gas storage and transportation systems

A semi-analytical pressure and rate transient analysis model for inner boundary and propped fractures exhibiting dynamic behavior under long-term production conditions

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Petroleum Science 2024年第4期21卷 2520-2535页

作者： Lin-Song Cheng Chong Cao Quan-Yu Pan Pin Jia Ren-Yi Cao Zhi-Kai Wang Jun-Jie Shi College of Petroleum Engineering China University of Petroleum (Beijing) Sinopec Petroleum Exploration and Production Research Institute CNOOC Research Institute State Key Laboratory of Water Resources protection and Utilization in Coal mining

The loss of hydrocarbon production caused by the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions has been widely reported in recent studies. However,the quantitative relationships for the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures have not been determined and incorporated in the semi-analytical models for the pressure and rate transient analysis. This work focuses on describing the variations of the inner boundary and propped fractures and capturing the typical characteristics from the pressure transient curves.A generalized semi-analytical model was developed to characterize the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures under long-term production conditions. The pressure-dependent length shrinkage coefficients, which quantify the length changes of the inner zone and propped fractures, are modified and incorporated into this multi-zone semi-analytical model. With simultaneous numerical iterations and numerical inversions in Laplace and real-time space, the transient solutions to pressure and rate behavior are determined in just a few seconds. The dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures on transient pressure curves is divided into five periods: fracture bilinear flow(FR1),dynamic PFs flow(FR2), inner-area linear flow(FR3), dynamic inner boundary flow(FR4), and outer-area dominated linear flow(FR5). The early hump during FR2 period and a positive upward shift during FR4period are captured on the log-log pressure transient curves, reflecting the dynamic behavior of the inner boundary and propped fractures during the long-term production *** transient pressure behavior will exhibit greater positive upward trend and the flow rate will be lower with the shrinkage of the inner boundary. The pressure derivative curve will be upward earlier as the inner boundary shrinks more rapidly. The lower permeability caused by the closure of un-propped fractures in the inner zo

关键词： Semi-analytical model Length shrinkage Dynamic behavior Boundary changes Transient behavior

Uncertainties of landslide susceptibility prediction: Influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors and errors reduction by low pass filter method

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Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering 2024年第1期16卷 213-230页

作者： Faming Huang Zuokui Teng Chi Yao Shui-Hua Jiang Filippo Catani Wei Chen Jinsong Huang School of infrastructure Engineering Nanchang UniversityNanchang330031China State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment protection Chengdu University of TechnologyChengdu610059China Department of Geosciences University of PadovaPadovaItaly College of Geology and Environment Xi’an University of Science and TechnologyXi’an710054China Discipline of Civil Surveying and Conditioning EngineeringPriority Research Centre for Geotechnical Science and EngineeringUniversity of NewcastleNewcastleNSWAustralia

In the existing landslide susceptibility prediction(LSP)models,the influences of random errors in landslide conditioning factors on LSP are not considered,instead the original conditioning factors are directly taken as the model inputs,which brings uncertainties to LSP *** study aims to reveal the influence rules of the different proportional random errors in conditioning factors on the LSP un-certainties,and further explore a method which can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning *** original conditioning factors are firstly used to construct original factors-based LSP models,and then different random errors of 5%,10%,15% and 20%are added to these original factors for con-structing relevant errors-based LSP ***,low-pass filter-based LSP models are constructed by eliminating the random errors using low-pass filter ***,the Ruijin County of China with 370 landslides and 16 conditioning factors are used as study *** typical machine learning models,*** perceptron(MLP),support vector machine(SVM)and random forest(RF),are selected as LSP ***,the LSP uncertainties are discussed and results show that:(1)The low-pass filter can effectively reduce the random errors in conditioning factors to decrease the LSP uncertainties.(2)With the proportions of random errors increasing from 5%to 20%,the LSP uncertainty increases continuously.(3)The original factors-based models are feasible for LSP in the absence of more accurate conditioning factors.(4)The influence degrees of two uncertainty issues,machine learning models and different proportions of random errors,on the LSP modeling are large and basically the same.(5)The Shapley values effectively explain the internal mechanism of machine learning model predicting landslide *** conclusion,greater proportion of random errors in conditioning factors results in higher LSP uncertainty,and low-pass filter can effectively reduce these random e

关键词： Landslide susceptibility prediction Conditioning factor errors Low-pass filter method Machine learning models Interpretability analysis

Load-bearing characteristics and energy evolution of fractured rock masses after granite and sandstone grouting

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Journal of Central South University 2024年第8期31卷 2810-2825页

作者： WU Xu-kun ZHAO Guang-ming MENG Xiang-rui LIU Chong-yan LIU Zhi-xi HUANG Shun-jie ZHANG Qi-hang Key Laboratory of Safe and Effective Coal mining Ministry of EducationAnhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan 232001China National Key Laboratory of Safe mining of Deep Coal and Environmental protection Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan 232001China Joint National-Local Engineering Research centre for Safe and Precise Coal mining Anhui University of Science and TechnologyHuainan 232001China

Experiments on grouting-reinforced rock mass specimens with different particle sizes and features were carried out in this study to examine the effects of grouting reinforcement on the load-bearing characteristics of fractured rock *** strength and deformation features of grouting-reinforced rock mass were analyzed under different loading manners;the energy evolution mechanism of grouting-reinforced rock mass specimens with different particle sizes and features was investigated;the energy dissipation ratio and post-peak stress decreasing rate were employed to evaluate the bearing stability of grouting-reinforced rock *** results show that the strength and ductility of granite-reinforced rock mass(GRM)under biaxial loading are higher than that of sandstone-reinforced rock mass(SRM)under uniaxial ***,the energy evolution characteristics of grouting-reinforced rock mass under uniaxial and biaxial loading mainly could be divided into early,middle,and late *** the early stage,total,elastic,and dissipation energies were quite small with flatter curves;in the middle stage,elastic energy increased rapidly,whereas dissipation energy increased slowly;in the late stage,dissipation energy increased *** energy dissipation ratio was used to represent the pre-peak plastic *** uniaxial loading,this ratio increased as the particle size increased and the pre-peak plastic deformation of grouting-reinforced rock mass became larger;under biaxial loading,it dropped as the particle size increased,and the pre-peak plastic deformation of grouting-reinforced rock mass became *** post-peak stress decline rate A_(v) was used to assess the post-peak bearing performance of grouting-reinforced rock *** uniaxial loading,parameter A_(v) exhibited reduction as the particle size kept increasing,and the ability of post-peak of grouting-reinforced rock mass to allow deformation development was greater,and the bearing capacity was greater;

关键词： grouting-reinforced rock mass particle size energy dissipation ratio post-peak stress decreasing rate load-bearing characteristics

Ecological-Based mining:A Coal-Water-Thermal Collaborative Paradigm in Ecologically Fragile Areas in Western China

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Engineering 2024年第7期38卷 209-222页

作者： Xiaoxiu Liu Yifan Zeng Qiang Wu Shihao Meng Jiyue Liang Zhuping Hou National Engineering Research Center of Coal Mine Water Hazard Controlling China University of Mining and TechnologyBeijing 100083China College of Geoscience and Surveying Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyBeijing 100083China University of mining and Technology(Beijing)Inner Mongolia Research Institute Ordos 017000China

A substantial reduction in groundwater level,exacerbated by coal mining activities,is intensifying water scarcity in western China’s ecologically fragile coal mining ***’s national strategic goal of achieving a carbon peak and carbon neutrality has made eco-friendly mining that prioritizes the protection and efficient use of water resources *** on the resource characteristics of mine water and heat hazards,an intensive coal-water-thermal collaborative co-mining paradigm for the duration of the mining process is *** integrated system for the production,supply,and storage of mining companion resources is achieved through technologies such as roof water inrush prevention and control,hydrothermal quality improvement,and deep-injection geological *** active preventive and control system achieved by adjusting the mining technology and a passive system centered on multiobjective drainage and grouting treatment are suggested,in accordance with the original geological characteristics and dynamic process of water *** implementing advanced multi-objective drainage,specifically designed to address the“skylight-type”water inrush mode in the Yulin mining area of Shaanxi Province,a substantial reduction of 50%in water drillings and inflow was achieved,leading to stabilized water conditions that effectively ensure subsequent safe coal *** integrated-energy complementary model that incorporates the clean production concept of heat utilization is also *** findings indicate a potential saving of 8419 t of standard coal by using water and air heat as an alternative heating source for the Xiaojihan coalmine,resulting in an impressive energy conservation of 50.2%and a notable 24.2%reduction in carbon *** ultra-deep sustained water injection of 100 m^(3)·h^(-1)in a single well would not rupture the formation or cause water leakage,and 7.87×10^(5)t of mine water could be effectively stored in the Liujiagou Formation,presenti

关键词： Dual carbon targets Coal-water-thermal co-mining Ecologically fragile areas Mine-water control Resource utilization

Syntheses and properties of associative acrylamide copolymers containing short hydrophobic chains used in a friction reducer for slick-water fracturing

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Petroleum Science 2024年第3期21卷 1889-1901页

作者： Ya-Xing Dai Xian-Li Zhang Si-Yuan Liu Feng-Run-Ze Zhang Yi-Xi Zhang Yu-Tong Sang Jing-Xi Zheng Zhao-Sheng Liu Peng Zhang College of Chemistry and Chemical Engineering Chongqing University of Science and TechnologyChongqing401331China College of Ecology and Environment Chongqing Resources and Environmental Protection of UniversityChongqing401331China China China Property Project Department of Dezhou Mining Property Service CenterShengli Oilfield Company of SinopecDezhou253000ShandongChina

Two allyldimethylalkyl quaternary ammonium salt(AQAS)monomers,N,N-dimethylallylphenylpropylammonium bromide(AQAS1)and N,N-dimethylallylnonylammonium bromide(AQAS2),were synthesized and used to prepare modified polyacrylamide *** new drag reducers were synthesized from acrylamide(AM),sodium acrylate(Na AA)and a cationic modified monomer(AQAS1 or AQAS2)via aqueous solution polymerization,and the copolymers were named P(AM/Na AA/AQAS1)and P(AM/Na AA/AQAS2),*** structures of the drag reduction agents were confirmed by IR and1H NMR *** molecular weight(Mw)of P(AM/Na AA/AQAS1)was 1.79×10^(6)g/*** the copolymer concentration was 1000 mg/L and the flow rate was 45 L/min,in fresh water the highest drag reduction rate was 75.8%,in 10,000 mg/L Na Cl solution the drag reduction rate decreased to 72.9%.The molecular weight of P(AM/Na AA/AQAS2)was 3.17×10^(6)g/*** the copolymer concentration was500 mg/L and the flow rate was 45 L/min,the drag reduction rate reached 75.2%,and in 10,000 mg/L Na Cl solution the drag reduction rate was 73.3%,decreased by approximately 1.9%.The drag reduction rate for partially hydrolyzed polyacrylamide(HPAM)was also investigated,and the results showed that the drag reduction rates for 500 and 1000 mg/L HPAM solutions were merely 43.2%and 49.0%in brine,*** with HPAM,both of the above copolymers presented better drag reduction capacities.

关键词： Shale gas Slick water Drag reducer Modified monomer Copolymerization

Time-domain Differential protection Based on Operating and Restraining Trajectory Indices for Lines Connecting Battery Storage Energy Stations

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Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy 2024年第4期12卷 1074-1086页

作者： Yingyu Liang Cunyue Pan School of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering China University of Mining and Technology(Beijing)BeijingChina

Battery energy storage stations(BESSs)pose sever-al challenges for both phasor-based differential protection and the newly-proposed time-domain differential *** challenges include low sensitivity and even ***,the negative impact of various nonideal conditions,including current transformer(CT)saturation,errors,and outliers,on the security of differential protection remains an important *** by the aforementioned issues,this study ac-counts for the trajectory distribution discrepancy on Cartesian plane under various conditions and proposes a time-domain dif-ferential protection *** this paper,the trajectory formed by operating and restraining current samples is ***,after considering different operating states,the fault severity levels,and nonideal conditions,the variances in trajectory distribution between internal and external faults are extensively *** this basis,the Cartesian plane is divided into operating,uncertainty,and restraining ***-ther,the operating and restraining trajectory indices are meticu-lously designed and a protection criterion based on these indi-ces is formed to accurately separate internal faults from other events,unaffected by CT saturation,errors,and *** exceptional performance of the proposed protection method is extensively validated through PSCAD simulations and a hard-ware-in-the-loop testing *** the dependability,sensitivity,and security,the proposed protection method outper-forms three state-of-the-art differential protection methods.

关键词： Battery energy storage station time-domain differential protection operating trajectory index(OTI) restraining trajectory index(RTI)

Physical and mechanical properties and microstructures of submarine soils in the Yellow Sea

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Deep Underground Science and Engineering 2024年第2期3卷 197-206页

作者： Zhuangcai Tian Yihua Chang Sichao Chen Gengchen Wang Yanhong Hu Chuan Guo Lei Jia Lei Song Jianhua Yue State Key Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhouChina School of Mechanics and Civil Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhouChina Research Center for Deep Ocean Science and Underwater Engineering China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhouChina School of Resources and Geosciences China University of Mining and TechnologyXuzhouChina

In recent years,the exploration of seabed has been intensified,but the submarine soils of silt and sand in the Yellow Sea area have not been well investigated so *** this study,the physical and mechanical properties of silt and sand from the Yellow Sea were measured using a direct shear apparatus and their microstructures were observed using a scanning electron *** test results suggest that the shear strength of silt and sand increases linearly with the increase of normal *** on the direct shear test,the scanning electron microscope was used to observe the section surface of *** is observed that the section surface becomes rough,with many“V”‐shaped *** particles appear on the surface of the silt structure and tend to be *** X‐ray diffraction experiment reveals that the sand and silt have different *** shear strength of sand is slightly greater than that of silt under high stress,which is related to the shape of soil particles and the mineral *** results can be a reference for further study of other soils in the Yellow Sea;meanwhile,they can serve as soil parameters for the stability and durability analyses of offshore infrastructure construction.

关键词： direct shear test microscope physical properties submarine soil Yellow Sea

Developing coal burst propensity index method for Australian coal mines

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International Journal of mining Science and Technology 2018年第5期28卷 783-790页

作者： Xiaohan Yang Ting Ren Lihai Tan Alex Remennikov Xueqiu He School of Civil Mining and Environmental Engineering University of Wollongong centre of infrastructure protection and mining safety University of Wollongong School of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of Science and TechnologyBeijing

Coal burst is the violent failure of overstressed coal, and it is often accompanied by sound, coal ejection and seismic events. It is subsequently recognized as a serious safety risk of Australia after double fatalities coal burst happened at Austar Coal Mine. Considering the increasing trend of coal burst severity and frequency with mining depth, it is an urgent task to develop the coal burst risk assessment methods for Australia underground coal mines. Coal burst propensity index method is a widely used method of burst risk evaluation of coal as it is summed up from the coal burst research and practice of many *** paper presents the experimental and theoretical research of coal burst propensity index method for coal burst risk assessment in Australia. The definition of four indexes including elastic strain energy index(W_(ET)), bursting energy index(K_E), dynamic failure time(DT) and uniaxial compression strength(RC)is introduced in the first part. Then, the standard laboratory test process and test parameter of coal burst propensity index is presented. DT test is conducted with 0.3 mm/min displacement control loading rate while other test is with 0.5 mm/min. Besides, modified data processing and risk classification method of test are proposed. Differentiate analysis of stress-strain curve is adopted in the data processing of DT and KEindex. A four level risk classification form of burst risk is recommended for Australian underground coal mines. Finally, two likely improvement methods of W_(ET) test, including volumetric strain indicator method and theoretical calculation method, are discussed.

关键词： Coal burst Coal burst propensity Risk evaluation Underground mining