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Evaluation and Projection of Extreme High Temperature Indices in Southwestern China Using NEX-GDDP-CMIP6

Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第1期38卷 88-107页

作者： Fen ZHANG Linxiao WEI Yonghua LI Hongyu TANG Tianyu ZHANG Baogang YANG China Meteorological Administration Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resource to Economy Chongqing Climate CentreChongqing 401147

Based on the recently released NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections(NEX-GDDP)Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) dataset and the gridded observational daily dataset CN05.1, this study evaluates the performance of 26 CMIP6 models in simulating extreme high temperature(EHT) indices in southwestern China and estimates future changes in the EHT indices under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs) SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 using 11 optimal CMIP6 models. Five EHT indices are employed:annual maximum value of daily maximum temperature(TXX), high temperature days(T35), warm days(TX90P),heat wave frequency(HWF), and heat wave days(HWD). The main results are as follows.(1) NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 is highly capable of simulating the spatial patterns of TXX and T35 in southwestern China but it presents a weaker ability to simulate the spatial patterns of TX90P, HWF, and HWD.(2) The simulated time series of T35, TX90P, HWF,and HWD in southwestern China exhibit consistent upward trends with the observations. The linear trends of increase in TX90P and HWD are much greater than those of increase in TXX, T35, and HWF.(3) The estimated increases in TXX and T35 in southwestern China are significantly greater in Chongqing and the adjacent areas of Sichuan than in the other regions. Spatial distributions of the increases in TX90P, HWF, and HWD generally show higher values in the west and lower values in the east.(4) In the three different scenarios, the projected future TXX,T35, TX90P, and HWD in southwestern China all display a continuous increase with time and radiative forcing levels, whereas HWF initially increases but then decreases under the SSP5-8.5 scenario. By the end of the 21st century, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, TXX and T35 are projected to increase by 6.0℃ and 45.0 days, respectively. The duration of individual heat waves is also expected to increase.

关键词： NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 extreme high temperature(EHT) southwestern China evaluation projection

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Assessment of spongy moth infestation impacts on forest productivity and carbon loss using the Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing and eddy covariance flux data

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Ecological Processes 2024年第2期13卷 231-245页

作者： Nur Hussain Alemu Gonsamo Shusen Wang M.Altaf Arain School of Earth Environment and Society and McMaster Centre for Climate Change Mc Master University Canada centre for Remote Sensing Natural Resources Canada

Background Deciduous forests in eastern North America experienced a widespread and intense spongy moth（Lymantria dispar） infestation in 2021. This study quantified the impact of this spongy moth infestation on carbon（C） cycle in forests across the Great Lakes region in Canada, utilizing high-resolution（10 × 10 m2） Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing images and eddy covariance（EC） flux data. Study results showed a significant reduction in leaf area index（LAI） and gross primary productivity（GPP） values in deciduous and mixed forests in the region in *** Remote sensing derived, growing season mean LAI values of deciduous（mixed） forests were 3.66（3.18）, 2.74（2.64）, and 3.53（2.94） m2m-2in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively, indicating about 24（14）% reduction in LAI, as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. Similarly, growing season GPP values in deciduous（mixed） forests were 1338（1208）, 868（932）, and 1367（1175） g C m-2, respectively in 2020, 2021 and 2022, showing about 35（22）% reduction in GPP in 2021 as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. This infestation induced reduction in GPP of deciduous and mixed forests, when upscaled to whole study area（178,000 km2）, resulted in 21.1（21.4） Mt of C loss as compared to 2020（2022）, respectively. It shows the large scale of C losses caused by this infestation in Canadian Great Lakes *** The methods developed in this study offer valuable tools to assess and quantify natural disturbance impacts on the regional C balance of forest ecosystems by integrating field observations, high-resolution remote sensing data and models. Study results will also help in developing sustainable forest management practices to achieve net-zero C emission goals through nature-based climate change solutions.

关键词： Spongy moth Infestation Carbon Gross ecosystem productivity Leaf area index Temperate forest Remote sensing Sentinel-2 Eddy covariance

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Sub-Seasonal Predictability of the Northeast China Cold Vortex in BCC and ECMWF S2S Model Forecasts for 2006-2021

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 453-468页

作者： Yiqiu YU Jie WU Yihe FANG Chunyu ZHAO Zongjian KE Yitong LIN Liaoning Provincial climate centre Liaoning Provincial Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Key Opening Laboratory for Northeast China Cold Vortex Research China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Panjin National climate Observatory Panjin124000China China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Jilin Provincial climate centre Jilin Provincial Meteorological AdministrationChangchun130062China

As an important atmospheric circulation system in the mid-high latitudes of East Asia,the Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV)substantially influences weather and climate in this *** far,systematic assessment on the performance of numerical prediction of the NCCVs has not been carried *** on the Beijing climate centre(BCC)and the ECMWF model hindcast and forecast data that participated in the Sub-seasonal to Seasonal(S2S)Prediction Project,this study systematically examines the performance of both models in simulating and forecasting the NCCVs at the sub-seasonal *** results demonstrate that the two models can effectively capture the seasonal variations in the intensity,active days,and spatial distribution of NCCVs;however,the duration of NCCVs is shorter and the intensity is weaker in the models than in the *** analysis shows that the differences in the intensity and location of the East Asian subtropical westerly jet and the wave train pattern from North Atlantic to East Asia may be responsible for the deficient simulation of NCCV events in the S2S ***,in the deterministic forecasts,BCC and ECMWF provide skillful prediction on the anomalous numbers of NCCV days and intensity at a lead time of 4-5(5-6)pentads,and the skill limit of the ensemble mean is 1-2 pentads longer than that of individual *** the probabilistic forecasts of daily NCCV activities,BCC and ECMWF exhibit a forecasting skill of approximately 7 and 11 days,respectively;both models show seasonal dependency in the simulation performance and forecast skills of NCCV events,with better performance in winter than in *** results from this study provide helpful references for further improvement of the S2S prediction of NCCVs.

关键词： Northeast China cold vortex(NCCV) predictability sub-seasonal to seasonal(S2S)prediction deterministic forecast probabilistic forecast

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Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第5期21卷 1509-1521页

作者： Arshad ASHRAF Imran AHMAD climate Energy and Water Research InstituteNational Agricultural Research Centre(NARC)Islamabad 44000Pakistan

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., 100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic developm

关键词： climate change Erodibility Indus basin Land degradation Slope stabilization

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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Nina events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate Change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave climate change Yangtze River Basin

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate Change Research 2024年第4期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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Variations in Column Concentration of Greenhouse Gases in China and Their Response to the 2015-2016 El Niño Event

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 608-619页

作者： Ningwei LIU Lingjun XIA Youjun DOU Shaorou DONG Jing WEN Ying WANG Rui FENG Ruonan WANG Yuhe LI Institute of Atmospheric Environment China Meteorological AdministrationShenyang110166China Jiangxi Ecological Meteorology centre Nanchang330096China Beijing Xiangyuan Academy of Meteorological Observing Technology Beijing100081China climate centre of Guangdong Province Guangzhou510641China Guangdong Meteorological Service Guangzhou510062China Liaoning Provincial Meteorological Equipment Support centre Shenyang110166China Meteorological centre of Northeast Air Traffic Administration of Civil Aviation of China Shenyang110161China

Since the industrial revolution,enhancement of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations as a result of human activities has been the primary cause of global *** monitoring and evaluation of greenhouse gases are significant prerequisites for carbon emission *** monthly data of global atmospheric carbon dioxide(CO_(2))and methane(CH4)column concentrations(hereinafter XCO_(2) and XCH_(4),respectively)retrieved by the Greenhouse Gas Observation Satellite(GOSAT),we analyzed the variations in XCO_(2)and XCH_(4)in China during 2010-2022 after confirming the reliability of the ***,the influence of a strong El Niño event in 2015-2016 on XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations in China was further *** results show that the retrieved XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) from GOSAT have similar temporal variation trends and significant correlations with the ground observation and emission inventory data of an atmospheric background station,which could be used to assess the variations in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in ***_(2) is high in spring and winter while XCH_(4) is high in *** XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) gradually declined from Southeast China to Northwest and Northeast China,with variation ranges of 401-406 and 1.81-1.88 ppmv,respectively;and the high value areas are located in the middle-lower Yangtze River ***_(2) and XCH_(4) in China increased as a whole during 2010-2022,with rapid enhancement and high levels of XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) in several *** significant increases in XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) over China in 2016 might be closely related to the strong El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)event during *** a global warming background in 2015,XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) increased by 0.768%and 0.657%in 2016 in *** analysis reveals that both the XCO_(2) and XCH_(4) variations might reflect the significant impact of the ENSO event on glacier melting in the Tibetan Plateau.

关键词： greenhouse gases column concentration CO_(2) CH4 El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO) El Niño

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