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Tropical cyclone genesis over the western north Pacific in La Ni?a decay summers: Comparison between 2018 and 2021

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Science China Earth sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3098-3109页

作者： Yunyun LIU Zhensong GONG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for Climate Prediction Studies National Climate Centre Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology

As the primary interannual signal of variability in the tropical ocean-atmosphere interaction, the El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation has a considerable impact on tropical cyclone(TC) activity over the western North Pacific(WNP). Both 2018 and2021 were La Ni?a decay years, but TC activity over the WNP during the two summers(June–August) showed notable differences. In 2018, summer TC activity was unusually high with a total of 18 TCs, and the region of TC genesis was mainly in the central and eastern WNP. In contrast, only 9 TCs were generated in summer 2021, and the region of TC genesis was primarily in the western WNP. By comparing the characteristics of the large-scale environmental conditions over the regions of TC genesis, the thermal factors of the tropical oceans, and the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation(MJO), this study revealed the possible causes for the marked differences in TC genesis over the WNP during the two summers, which both had a similar background of La Ni?a decay. The Indian Ocean Basin Mode(IOBM) transitioned of a cold anomaly in the winter of 2017/2018and persisted until summer 2018. At the same time, the Pacific Meridional Mode(PMM) maintained a positive phase, leading to eastward and northward displacement of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in summer, and eastward extension of the tropical monsoon trough, which presented conditions conducive to TC genesis over the Northwest Pacific. Moreover, the days when the MJO stagnated in phases 5 and 6 in the summer of 2018 increased by approximately 150% relative to climatological state,providing dynamic conditions favorable for TC formation. In 2021, the IOBM quickly turned to a warm anomaly in March and persisted until summer, whereas the PMM became a negative phase in January and remained so until summer. At the same time,the MJO stagnated in phases 2 and 3 for up to 47 days, with the center of convection located over the western Maritime Continent, producing conditions unconducive to TC ge

关键词： Tropical cyclone La Niña events Indian Ocean Basin Mode Pacific Meridional Mode Madden-Julian Oscillation Western Pacific Subtropical High Monsoon trough

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Interdecadal changes in the frequency of winter extreme cold events in North China during 1989–2021

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 1-7页

作者： Yali Zhu Fangwu Song Dong Guo Nansen‐Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2021年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2003和2013年发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2003-2012年,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南... 详细信息

全球变暖背景下,极端天气气候事件的变化受到关注.本文研究发现, 1989-2021年期间,华北地区极端冷日数在2003和2013年发生了年代际变化.极端冷日数先增加后减少. 2003-2012年,西伯利亚-乌拉尔高压偏强,极地西风急流偏弱,有利于冷空气南下入侵华北地区,华北极端冷日数偏多.而在1989-2002年和2013-2021年,情况相反.虽然三个时段华北极端冷日的强度没有显著差异,但与其相联系的冷空气强度变得更强, 2013-2021年冷空气中心区域往西北扩张到了贝加尔湖以西地区.

关键词：华北极端冷事件西伯利亚–乌拉尔高压北大西洋涛动极地急流东亚西风急流

Prediction of the burden of road traffic injuries in Iran by 2030: Prevalence, death,and disability-adjusted life years

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Chinese Journal of Traumatology 2024年第4期27卷 242-248页

作者： Mozhgan Seif Sedigheh Edalat Ali Majidpour Azad Shirazi Somayeh Alipouri Mohsen Bayati Non-communicable Diseases Research Center Department of EpidemiologySchool of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran health Human Resources Research Center School of Health Management and Information SciencesShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran health Policy Research Center Institute of HealthShiraz University of Medical SciencesShirazIran

Purpose:Road traffic accidents pose a global challenge with substantial human and economic *** a high incidence of road traffic injuries,leading to a significant burden on *** studyaims to predict the future burden of road traffic injuries in Iran until 2030,providing valuable insights forpolicy-making and interventions to improve road safety and reduce the associated human and ***:This analytical study utilized time series models,specifically autoregressive integrated movingaverage(ARIMA)and artificial neural networks(ANNs),to predict the burden of road traffic accidents byanalyzing past data to identify patterns and trends in Iran until *** required data related toprevalence,death,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)rates were collected from the Institute forhealth Metrics and evaluation database and analyzed using R software and relevant modeling andstatistical analysis ***:Both prediction models,ARIMA and ANNs indicate that the prevalence rates(per 100,000)of allroad traffic injuries,except for motorcyclist road injuries which have an almost flat trend,remaining ataround 430,increase by *** on estimations of both models,the rates of death and DALYs due tomotor vehicle and pedestrian road traffic injuries *** motor vehicle road injuries,estimatedtrends decrease to approximately 520 DALYs and 10 ***,for pedestrian road injuries these ratesreached approximately 300 DALYs and 6 deaths,according to the *** cyclists and other roadtraffic injuries,the predicted DALY rates by the ANN model increase to almost 50 and 8,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 40 and approximately ***,these rates for the prediction of death rate by the ANN model increased to 0.6 and 0.1,while predictionsconducted by the ARIMA model show a static trend,remaining at 0.43 and *** to the ANNmodel,the predicted rates of DALY and death for m

关键词： Accidents Traffic Accident prevention Motorcycles Road injury Forecasting

A 10-yr Rainfall and Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatology over Coastal and Inland Regions of Guangdong,China during the Pre-Summer Rainy Season

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Journal of Meteorological Research 2024年第3期38卷 469-488页

作者： Yuqing RUAN Rudi XIA Xinghua BAO Dong ZHENG Yan SHEN Jinfang YIN State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing210044China National Meteorological Information centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing100081China

A comparative analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of rainfall and lightning in coastal and inland areas of Guangdong Province of China during the pre-summer rainy season(PSRS)from 2008 to 2017 reveals distinct *** the inland target region(ITR),rainfall is concentrated in the central and eastern mountainous *** exhibits a bimodal diurnal variation,with peaks in the afternoon and *** afternoon peak becomes more pronounced during the post-monsoon-onset period because of the increased rainfall ***,in the coastal target region(CTR),rainfall concentrates around mountainous ***,CTR’s rainfall is weaker than ITR’s during the pre-monsoon-onset period,primarily associated with the lower-level moisture outflow in CTR,but it strengthens significantly during the post-monsoon-onset period owing to enhanced moisture ***’s diurnal rainfall variation transitions from bimodal to a single broad peak during the post-monsoon-onset period,influenced by changes in both rainfall frequency and *** contrast to rainfall,the spatiotemporal distribution of lightning centers remains relatively stable during the *** strongest center is located over ITR’s plains west of the rainfall center,with a secondary center in the western plains of *** activity significantly increases during the post-monsoon-onset period,particularly in ITR,primarily because of the increased lightning *** diurnal lightning flash density and lightning hours show a single afternoon peak in the two target regions,and the timing of the peak in ITR is approximately two hours later than in *** circulation analysis indicates that during early morning,the lower atmosphere is nearly neutral in *** advected warm,moist,unstable airflow,combined with topography,favors convection *** the afternoon,solar radiation increases thermal instability,further enhancing the convection frequency and in

关键词： rainfall lightning spatiotemporal distribution diurnal variation pre-summer rainy season

Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National Climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for Climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

Interdecadal changes in the western Siberian summer mean and extreme rainfall during 1982-2021

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第3期17卷 37-41页

作者： Yali Zhu Fangwu Song Dong Guo Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjingChina Carbon Neutrality Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina College of Earth and Planetary sciences University of Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijingChina

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2012年后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征... 详细信息

本文研究发现,西西伯利亚夏季降水在1995年后显著增加,2012年后又有所减少,极端降水日数和强度呈现一致的变化特征.伴随这两次降水的年代际增加/减少,西西伯利亚上空出现异常气旋/反气旋和水汽幅合/幅散.极端降水发生时的区域环流特征在三个时段基本一致:西西伯利亚低空出现气旋性异常,高空为西北-东南向的异常气旋-反气旋偶极子型.1995-2011年期间,极端降水日数更多,强度更强,上述异常环流型也更强.

关键词：西伯利亚夏季降水年代际变化乌拉尔高压北大西洋波流相互作用

A novel marine-derived anti-acute kidney injury agent targeting peroxiredoxin 1 and its nanodelivery strategy based on ADME optimization

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Acta Pharmaceutica Sinica B 2024年第7期14卷 3232-3250页

作者： Ping Yu Tanwei Gu Yueyang Rao Weimin Liang Xi Zhang Huanguo Jiang Jindi Lu Jianglian She Jianmin Guo Wei Yang Yonghong Liu Yingfeng Tu Lan Tang Xuefeng Zhou Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of New Drug Screening Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Joint Laboratory for New Drug ScreeningSchool of Pharmaceutical SciencesSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhou 510515China CAS Key Laboratory of Tropical Marine Bio-Resources and Ecology Guangdong Key Laboratory of Marine Materia MedicaSouth China Sea Institute of OceanologyChinese Academy of SciencesGuangzhou 510301China NMPA Key Laboratory for Research and evaluation of Drug Metabolism School of Pharmaceutical SciencesSouthern Medical UniversityGuangzhou 510515China Guangdong Lewwin Pharmaceutical Research Institute Co. Ltd.Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Drug Non-Clinical Evaluation and ResearchGuangdong Engineering Research Center for Innovative Drug Evaluation and ResearchGuangzhou 510990China

Insufficient therapeutic strategies for acute kidney injury(AKI)necessitate precision therapy targeting its *** study reveals the new mechanism of the marine-derived anti-AKI agent,piericidin glycoside S14,targeting peroxiredoxin 1(PRDX1).By binding to Cys83 of PRDX1 and augmenting its peroxidase activity,S14 alleviates kidney injury efficiently in Prdx1-overexpression(Prdx1-OE)***,S14 also increases PRDX1 nuclear translocation and directly activates the Nrf2/HO-1/NQO1 pathway to inhibit ROS *** to the limited druggability of S14 with low bioavailability(2.6%)and poor renal distribution,a pH-sensitive kidney-targeting dodecanaminechitosan nanoparticle system is constructed to load S14 for precise treatment of AKI.L-Serine conjugation to chitosan imparts specificity to kidney injury molecule-1(Kim-1)-overexpressed *** developed S14-nanodrug exhibits higher therapeutic efficiency by improving the in vivo behavior of S14 *** encapsulation with micelles,the AUC_(0-t),half-life time,and renal distribution of S14 increase 2.5-,1.8-,and 3.1-fold,*** main factors contributing to the improved druggability of S14 nanodrugs include the lower metabolic elimination rate and UDPglycosyltransferase(UGT)-mediated *** summary,this study identifies a new therapeutic target for the marine-derived anti-AKI agent while enhancing its ADME properties and druggability through nanotechnology,thereby driving advancements in marine drug development for AKI.

关键词： Acute kidney injury Piericidin glycoside Peroxiredoxin 1 Nanodrug Kim-1 targeted ADME Marine drug Druggability

Projected changes in Köppen-Trewartha climate zones under 1.5-4℃global warming targets over mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia using an ensemble of RegCM4 simulations

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 185-196页

作者： Jie WU Xue-Jie GAO Xian-Bing TANG Filippo GIORGI School of Geography and Environmental Engineering Gannan Normal UniversityGanzhou 341000China Climate Change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China The Abdus Salam International centre for Theoretical Physics Trieste 34100Italy

Mid-high latitude Northern Asia is one of the most vulnerable and sensitive areas to global warming,but relatively less studied *** used an ensemble of a regional climate model(RegCM4)projections to assess future changes in surface air temperature,precipitation and Köppen-Trewartha(K-T)climate types in Northern Asia under the 1.5-4℃global warming ***4 is driven by five CMIP5 global models over an East Asia domain at a grid spacing of 25 *** of the present day(1986-2005)simulations shows that the ensembles of RegCM4(ensR)and driving GCMs(ensG)reproduce the major characters of the observed temperature,precipitation and K-T climate zones reasonably *** and more realistic spatial detail is found in RegCM4 compared to the driving GCMs.A general warming and overall increases in precipitation are projected over the region,with these changes being more pronounced at higher warming *** projected warming by ensR shows different spatial patterns,and is in general lower,compared to ensG in most months of the year,while the percentage increases of precipitation are maximum during the cold *** future changes in K-T climate zones are characterized by a substantial expansion of Dc(temperature oceanic)and retreat of Ec(sub-arctic continental)over the region,reaching∼20%under the 4℃warming *** most notable change in climate types in ensR is found over Japan(∼60%),followed by Southern Siberia,Mongolia,and the Korean Peninsula(∼40%).The largest change in the K-T climate types is found when increasing from 2 to 3℃.The results will help to better assess the impacts of climate change and in implementation of appropriate adaptation measures over the region.

关键词： Mid-high latitudes of Northern Asia Köppen climate zones Global warming targets Regional climate model

El Niño and the AMO Sparked the Astonishingly Large Margin of Warming in the Global Mean Surface Temperature in 2023

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Advances in Atmospheric sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1017-1022页

作者： Kexin LI Fei ZHENG Jiang ZHU Qing-Cun ZENG International Center for Climate and Environment sciences Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China University of Chinese Academy of sciences Beijing 100049China

In 2023,the majority of the Earth witnessed its warmest boreal summer and autumn since *** 2023 will indeed turn out to be the warmest year on record and what caused the astonishingly large margin of warming has become one of the hottest topics in the scientific community and is closely connected to the future development of human *** analyzed the monthly varying global mean surface temperature(GMST)in 2023 and found that the globe,the land,and the oceans in 2023 all exhibit extraordinary warming,which is distinct from any previous year in recorded *** on the GMST statistical ensemble prediction model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics,the GMST in 2023 is predicted to be 1.41℃±0.07℃,which will certainly surpass that in 2016 as the warmest year since 1850,and is approaching the 1.5℃ global warming *** to 2022,the GMST in 2023 will increase by 0.24℃,with 88%of the increment contributed by the annual variability as mostly affected by El Niñ***,the multidecadal variability related to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO)in 2023 also provided an important warming background for sparking the GMST *** a result,the GMST in 2023 is projected to be 1.15℃±0.07℃,with only a 0.02℃ increment,if the effects of natural variability—including El Niño and the AMO—are eliminated and only the global warming trend is considered.

关键词： record-breaking temperature global mean surface temperature El Niño AMO global warming