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Increased glacier melt enhances future extreme floods in the southern Tibetan Plateau

Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第3期15卷 431-441页

作者： He SUN Tan-Dong YAO Feng-Ge SU Tinghai Ou Zhihua HE Guoqiang TANG Deliang CHEN State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources(TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China Regional Climate Group Department of Earth SciencesUniversity of GothenburgGothenburg 40530Sweden centre for hydrology University of SaskatchewanSaskatoon S7N 1K2Canada Climate and Global Dynamics National Center for Atmospheric ResearchBoulder CO 80307USA

Mountainous areas are of special hydrological concern because topography and atmospheric conditions can result in large and sudden floods,posing serious risks to water-related safety in neighbouring *** Yarlung Zangbo(YZ)River basin is the largest river basin on the Tibetan Plateau(TP),but how floods will discharge in this basin and how the role of glacier melt in floods will change throughout the 21st-century under shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5)remain ***,we comprehensively address this scientific question based on a well-validated large-scale glacier-hydrology *** results indicate that extreme floods was projected to increase in the YZ basin,and was mainly reflected in increased duration(4–10 d per decade)and intensity(153–985 m^(3)s^(−1)per decade).Glacier runoff was projected to increase(2–30 mm per decade)throughout the 21st-century,but there was also a noticeable decrease or deceleration in glacier runoff growth in the late first half of the century under the SSP2-4.5,and in the latter half of the century under the *** melt was projected to enhance the duration(12%–23%)and intensity(15%–21%)of extreme floods under both SSPs,which would aggravate the impact of future floods on the socioeconomics of the YZ *** effect was gradually overwhelmed by precipitation-induced floods from glacier areas to YZ *** study takes the YZ basin as a projection framework example to help enrich the understanding of future flood hazards in basins affected by rainfall-or meltwater across the TP,and to help policy-makers and water managers develop future plans.

关键词： floods glacier Tibetan

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Spatiotemporal variability of rain-on-snow events in the arid region of Northwest China

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Journal of Arid Land 2024年第4期16卷 483-499页

作者： YANG Zhiwei CHEN Rensheng LIU Zhangwen ZHAO Yanni LIU Yiwen WU Wentong Qilian Alpine Ecology and hydrology Research Station Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 730000China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

Rain-on-snow(ROS)events involve rainfall on snow surfaces,and the occurrence of ROS events can exacerbate water scarcity and ecosystem vulnerability in the arid region of Northwest China(ARNC).In this study,using daily snow depth data and daily meteorological data from 68 meteorological stations provided by the China Meteorological Administration National Meteorological Information centre,we investigated the spatiotemporal variability of ROS events in the ARNC from 1978 to 2015 and examined the factors affecting these events and possible changes of future ROS events in the *** results showed that ROS events in the ARNC mainly occurred from October to May of the following year and were largely distributed in the Qilian Mountains,Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng Prefecture,and Altay Prefecture,with the Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay Mountains exhibiting the most *** on the intensity of ROS events,the areas with the highest risk of flooding resulting from ROS events in the ARNC were the Tianshan Mountains,Ili River Valley,Tacheng City,and Altay *** number and intensity of ROS events in the ARNC largely increased from 1978 to 2015,mainly influenced by air temperature and the number of rainfall ***,due to the snowpack abundance in areas experiencing frequent ROS events in the ARNC,snowpack changes exerted slight impact on ROS events,which is a temporary ***,elevation imposed lesser impact on ROS events in the ARNC than other *** the ARNC,the start time of rainfall and the end time of snowpack gradually advanced from the spring of the current year to the winter of the previous year,while the end time of rainfall and the start time of snowpack gradually delayed from autumn to *** may lead to more ROS events in winter in the *** results could provide a sound basis for managing water resources and mitigating related disasters caused by ROS events in the ARNC.

关键词： rain-on-snow events snowpack snowmelt climate change Spearman's rank correlation arid region of Northwest China

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An integrated land change modeler and distributed hydrological model approach for quantifying future urban runoff dynamics

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第10期67卷 3288-3301页

作者： Asad Hussain MUHAMMAD Waseem MUHAMMAD Ajmal MUHAMMAD Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq MUHAMMAD Jiaqing XIAO Tao YANG Pengfei SHI Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical ScienceNanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China College of hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering University of Engineering and TechnologyLahore 54890Pakistan Department of Agricultural Engineering Faculty of CivilAgricultural and Mining EngineeringUniversity of Engineering and TechnologyPeshawar 25120Pakistan

Climate and land use changes have a significant impact on the runoff generation process in urban environments, and these effects could get worse in the future. The combined contributions of these changes have increased the risk of ***, there is a need for integrated modeling to better understand the runoff variability, especially in small urban catchments. To quantify and separate the effects of land-use changes and climate change on the hydrological response of urban catchments with a distributed hydrological model(Storm Water Management Model, SWMM), this study introduces a new integrated approach based on the Machine Learning based land use change modeler and climate change scenarios under *** on supervised classification and land use change model analysis, accumulated impervious area increase from 22%(in2023) to 33%(in 2060) was observed in the study area. Furthermore, integrating this projected increase in imperviousness with future climate change into SWMM by considering three different scenarios i.e., S1(Climate Change), S2(Combined Land Use and Climate Change), and S3(Land use Change) resulted that climate change could cause an increase in runoff from 13.2% to18.3% in peak runoff and the contribution of land use could range from 9.1% to 18.6%. Similarly, in response to the coupled effects of climate and land-use change, the runoff would likely change from 24.53% to 39.66%. Conclusively, the study showed that despite climate change, intensive urban development by the substitution of impervious surfaces could also have a severe impact on the microclimate and hydrology of small catchments. Lastly, this study could provide a way forward for the future planning and management of water resources in small catchments which could be extended to larger catchments.

关键词： Climate change Land-use modeling Runoff simulation Percent Imperviousness TerrSet

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Assessment of Seasonal Rainfall Prediction in Ethiopia: Evaluating a Dynamic Recurrent Neural Network to Downscale ECMWF-SEAS5 Rainfall

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期41卷 2230-2244页

作者： Abebe KEBEDE Kirsten WARRACH-SAGI Thomas SCHWITALLA Volker WULFMEYER Tesfaye ABEBE Markos WARE Hawassa University College of Agriculture P.O.Box 05HawassaEthiopia Institute of Physics and Meteorology University of HohenheimP.O.Box 70599StuttgartGermany Arba Minch University Water Institute of Technology Faculty of Meteorology and HydrologyP.O.Box 21Arba MinchEthiopia

Seasonal rainfall plays a vital role in both environmental dynamics and decision-making for rainfed agriculture in Ethiopia, a country often impacted by extreme climate events such as drought and flooding. Predicting the onset of the rainy season and providing localized rainfall forecasts for Ethiopia is challenging due to the changing spatiotemporal patterns and the country's rugged topography. The Climate Hazards Group Infra Red Precipitation with Station Data(CHIRPS), ERA5-Land total precipitation and temperature data are used from 1981–2022 to predict spatial rainfall by applying an artificial neural network(ANN). The recurrent neural network(RNN) is a nonlinear autoregressive network with exogenous input(NARX), which includes feed-forward connections and multiple network layers, employing the Levenberg Marquart algorithm. This method is applied to downscale data from the European centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts fifth-generation seasonal forecast system(ECMWF-SEAS5) and the Euro-Mediterranean centre for Climate Change(CMCC) to the specific locations of rainfall stations in Ethiopia for the period 1980–2020. Across the stations, the results of NARX exhibit strong associations and reduced errors. The statistical results indicate that, except for the southwestern Ethiopian highlands, the downscaled monthly precipitation data exhibits high skill scores compared to the station records, demonstrating the effectiveness of the NARX approach for predicting local seasonal rainfall in Ethiopia's complex terrain. In addition to this spatial ANN of the summer season precipitation, temperature, as well as the combination of these two variables, show promising results.

关键词： station prediction downscaling artificial neural networks rainfall

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Health risk assessment of heavy metal pollution in groundwater of a karst basin,SW China

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Journal of Groundwater Science and Engineering 2024年第1期12卷 49-61页

作者： Fu-ning Lan Yi Zhao Jun Li Xiu-qun Zhu Karst Ecosystem National Observation and Research StationPingguo 531406GuangxiChina Institute of Karst Geology International Research Centre on KarstUnder the Auspices of UNESCOGuangxi Karst Resources and Environment Research Center of Engineering TechnologyChinese Academy of Geological SciencesKarst Dynamics LaboratoryMNR and GuangxiGuilin 541004China Hebei Key Laboratory of Water Quality Engineering and Comprehensive Utilization of Water Resources Hebei University of ArchitectureZhangjiakou 075000Hebei ProvinceChina College of hydrology and Water Resources Hohai UniversityNanjing 210098China

To investigate the presence of metal elements and assess their health risk for the populace in the Nandong Underground River Basin(NURB),we conducted an analysis of eleven common heavy metals in the water body.A Health risk assessment(HRA)model was employed to analyze 84 water samples from the *** detection results revealed the following order of heavy metals concentrations:Fe>Al>Mn>Zn>As>Cd>Pb>Cr>Ni>Cu>*** analysis indicated a certain similarity in material source and migration transformation among these eleven metal *** study identified that the health risks for local residents exposed to metal elements in the water of NURB primarily stem from carcinogenic risk(10^(−6)–10^(−4)a^(−1))through the drinking water ***,the health risk of heavy metal exposure for children through drinking water was notably higher than for *** maximum health risks of Cr in both underground and surface water exceeded the recommendation standard(5.0×10^(−5)a^(−1))from ICRP,surpassing the values recommended by the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency,the Dutch Ministry of Construction and Environment and the British Royal Society(5.0×10^(−6)a^(−1)).The results of the health risk assessment indicate that Cr in the water of NURB is the primary source of carcinogenic risk for local residents,followed by Cd and ***,it is imperative to control these three carcinogenic metals when the water was used as drinking water resource.

关键词： Water Pollution Correlation Analysis Toxicity of Heavy Metal Elements Underground River Basin Carcinogenicity Potential

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Typhoon-Induced Ocean Waves and Stokes Drift:A Case Study of Typhoon Mangkhut(2018)

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China Ocean Engineering 2024年第4期38卷 711-724页

作者： WU Zhi-yuan GAO Kai CHEN Jie ZHANG Hao-jian DENG Bin JIANG Chang-bo LIU Yi-zhuang LYU Zhao YAN Ren School of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Changsha University of Science&TechnologyChangsha 410114China Key Laboratory of Water-Sediment Sciences and Water Disaster Prevention of Hunan Province Changsha 410114China State Key Laboratory of hydrology-Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering Hohai UniversityNanjing 210024China State Key Laboratory of Coastal and Offshore Engineering Dalian University of TechnologyDalian 116024China School of Civil Engineering Hunan University of TechnologyZhuzhou 412007China

Ocean waves and Stokes drift are generated by *** study investigated the characteristics of ocean waves and wave-induced Stokes drift and their effects during Typhoon Mangkhut using European centre for MediumRange Weather Forecasts(ECMWF)ERA5 datasets and observational *** results revealed that the typhoon generated intense cyclones and huge typhoon waves with a maximum wind speed of 45 m/s,a minimum pressure of955 h Pa,and a maximum significant wave height of 12 *** Stokes drift caused by typhoon waves exceeded 0.6m/s,the Stokes depth scale exceeded 18 m,and the maximum Stokes transport reached 6 m^(2)/*** spatial distribution of 10-m wind speed,typhoon wave height,Stokes drift,Stokes depth,and Stokes transport during the typhoon was highly correlated with the typhoon *** distribution along the typhoon track showed significant zonal asymmetry,with greater intensity on the right side of the typhoon track than on the left *** findings provide important insights into the impact of typhoons on ocean waves and Stokes drift,thus improving our understanding of the interactions between typhoons and the ocean *** study also investigated the contribution of Stokes transport to the total net transport during typhoons using Ekman-Stokes Numbers as a comparative *** results indicated that the ratio of Stokes transport to the total net transport reached up to 50%within the typhoon radius,while it was approximately 30%outside the *** Stokes transport induced by typhoon waves led to divergence in the transport direction,which resulted in upwelling of the lower ocean as a compensation ***,Stokes transport played a crucial role in the vertical mixing of the ocean during *** findings suggested that Stokes transport should be paid more attention to,particularly in high latitude ocean regions,where strong winds can amplify its effects.

关键词： Stokes drift typhoon waves Ekman-Stokes transport vertical mixing Typhoon Mangkhut

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Changes in global land surface frozen ground and freeze-thaw processes during 1950-2020 based on ERA5-Land data

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Advances in Climate Change Research 2024年第2期15卷 265-274页

作者： Yong YANG Ren-Sheng CHEN Yong-Jian DING Hong-Yuan LI Zhang-Wen LIU Qilian Alpine Ecology and hydrology Research Station Key Laboratory of Ecological Safety and Sustainable Development in Arid LandsNorthwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73000China State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and ResourcesChinese Academy of SciencesLanzhou 73000China Shandong Provincial Key Laboratory of Water and Soil Conservation and Environmental Protection College of Resources and EnvironmentLinyi UniversityLinyi 276000China

Frozen ground(FG)plays an important role in global and regional climates and environments through changes in land freeze-thaw processes,which have been conducted mainly in different ***,the changes in land surface freeze-thaw processes under climate change on a global scale are still *** on ERA5-Land hourly land skin temperature data,this study evaluated changes in the global FG area,global land surface first freeze date(FFD),last freeze date(LFD)and frost-free period(FFP)from 1950 to *** results show that the current FG areas(1991-2020 mean)in the Northern Hemisphere(NH),Southern Hemisphere(SH),and globe are 68.50×10^(6),9.03×10^(6),and 77.53×10^(6)km^(2),which account for 72.4%,26.8%,and 60.4%of the exposed land(excluding glaciers,ice sheets,and water bodies)in the NH,SH and the globe,respectively;further,relative to 1951-1980,the FG area decreased by 1.9%,8.8%,and 2.8%,*** FG at lower latitudes degrades to intermittently FG,and intermittently FG degrades to non-frozen ground,which caused the global FG boundary to retreat to higher latitudes from 1950 to *** annual FG areas in the NH,SH,and globe all show significant decreasing trends(p<0.05)from 1950 to 2020 at-0.32×10^(6),-0.22×10^(6),and-0.54×10^(6)km^(2)per decade,*** FFP prolongation in the NH is mainly influenced by LFD advance,while in the SH it is mainly controlled by FFD *** prolongation trend of FFP in the NH(1.34 d per decade)is larger than that in the SH(1.15 d per decade).

关键词： Frozen ground Freeze-thaw processes Frost-free period First freeze date Global warming

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Semantic linking of complex properties,monitoring processes and facilities in web-based representations of the environment

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International Journal of Digital Earth 2016年第3期9卷 300-324页

作者： Adam M.Leadbetter Peter N.Vodden Marine Institute Co.GalwayIreland centre for Ecology and hydrology Lancaster Environment CentreLancasterUK

Where a virtual representation of the Earth must contain data values observed within the physical Earth system,data models are required that allow the integration of data across the silos of various Earth and environmental sciences *** a mapping between the well-defined terminologies of these silos is a stubborn *** paper presents a generalised ontology for use within Web 3.0 services,which builds on European Commission spatial data infrastructure *** presented ontology acknowledges that there are many complexities to the description of environmental properties which can be observed within the physical Earth *** ontology is shown to be flexible and robust enough to describe concepts drawn from a range of Earth science disciplines,including ecology,geochemistry,hydrology and *** paper also demonstrates the alignment and compatibility of the ontology with existing systems and shows applications in which the ontology may be deployed.

关键词： observable properties monitoring properties environmental monitoring facilities semantic web geospatial data integration

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Hydrological impacts of afforestation-A review of research in India

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Journal of Forestry Research 2014年第1期25卷 37-42页

作者： B.Venkatesh N.Lakshman B.K.Purandara Regional centre National Institute of Hydrology Department of Applied Mechanics National Institute of Technology Karnataka

We review the current status of experimental studies in India to understand the linkages between afforestation and hydrology. This discipline deals with the use and management of water, social awareness of environmental problems, and ecosystem limitations on provision of watershed services by river basins in the mountain regions of India. Our review begins with examination of experimental works in tropical countries and proceeds to discussion of initiatives of Indian research institutes and Government organizations towards establishing experimental watersheds to understand the impacts of land cover changes on hydrologic regimes in the Indian sub-continent. This is followed by the review of the experimental work carried out by various authors to assess the impact of land cover changes on major water balance components such as, runoff, groundwater, evapotranspiration and sediment yield. The spatial scales of these experiments have been limited to small watersheds or field plots. This paper also describes impacts of human interventions （such as planta- tions of exotic forest species to restore degraded landscapes） on the water balance components in diverse hydro-geo-environmental conditions in the Indian sub-continent. We focus on identifying the research areas which require immediate attention to develop tools to assist planners and policy makers in assessing and managing the water resources in these complex environments. The review is largely based on research results reported during the last 20 to 30 years.

关键词： afforestation Western Ghats experimental watersheds land-use/cover changes humid tropics

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Assessment of the Recent Hydromorphological Features of Nokoue Lake and Its Channels (South-East Benin)

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Open Journal of Modern hydrology 2024年第1期14卷 33-55页

作者： Tètchodiwèï Julie-Billard Yonouwinhi Gérard Alfred Franck Assiom d’Almeida Felix Kofi Abagale Akuemaho Virgile Onésime Akowanou Laboratory of Applied hydrology (LHA) National Institute of water (INE) African Centre of Excellence for Water and Sanitation (C2EA) University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Cotonou Benin International Chair in Mathematical Physics and Applications (ICMPA–UNESCO Chair) University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Cotonou Benin Laboratory of Geology Mining and Environment (LGME) Faculty of Science and Technology (FAST) University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Cotonou Benin West African centre for Water Irrigation and Sustainable Agriculture (WACWISA) University of Development Studies (UDS) Tamale Ghana Laboratory of Sciences and Technology for Water and Environment (LSTEE) University of Abomey-Calavi (UAC) Cotonou Benin

Based on 2022 and 2023 hydrometric data and satellite images (Sentinel 2022, SPOT 2010), this study aims to present the Nokoué Lake and its channels’ re-cent hydromorphological characteristics. Integrating flow, tributary morphology, and topography data determined specific power values along the axes studied. The values obtained range from 2.69 to 12.92 W/m2 for Ouémé River and 2.46 to 10.99 W/m2 for Sô River. The resulting water erosion on banks and bottoms is of linear, areolar, or gully and claw types. Lake bathymetry varies from -0.5 to -2.6 m (low flow period) and -1 to -4 m;in the Ouémé, Sô, and Totchè rivers, it varies from -5 m to -7 m, reaching -10 m at the Cotonou channel entrance (flood period). Bathymetric profiles reveal varied “U”, “V” and “Intermediate” bottom morphologies, influenced by erosion/sedimentation processes and human activities. The flow facies identified are lentic in the northern tributaries and lotic in the Cotonou and Totchè canals. Spatial analysis identified nine (09) thematic classes. In 2022, the surface area of the water body has increased from 274 km2 at low water to 280 km2 at high water, whereas in 2010 (a recent year of exceptional flooding), the surface area was 270 km2 at low water and 277 km2 at high water. Significant changes in land use are observed between 2010 and 2022. The floodplain area decreased slightly, from 421 km2 in 2010 (year of exceptional flooding) to 419 km2 in 2022. The evolution of land use shows a progressive expansion of the urban environment to the detriment of the natural environment. In the medium to long term, this trend could threaten the hydromorphological balance and even the existence of this important lagoon ecosystem.

关键词： Nokoué Lake Ouémé River Sô River Cotonou Channel Hydromorphology

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