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Assessment of spongy moth infestation impacts on forest productivity and carbon loss using the Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing and eddy covariance flux data

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Ecological Processes 2024年第2期13卷 231-245页

作者： Nur Hussain Alemu Gonsamo Shusen Wang M.Altaf Arain School of Earth Environment and Society and McMaster Centre for Climate Change Mc Master University Canada centre for Remote Sensing Natural Resources Canada

Background Deciduous forests in eastern North America experienced a widespread and intense spongy moth（Lymantria dispar） infestation in 2021. This study quantified the impact of this spongy moth infestation on carbon（C） cycle in forests across the Great Lakes region in Canada, utilizing high-resolution（10 × 10 m2） Sentinel-2 satellite remote sensing images and eddy covariance（EC） flux data. study results showed a significant reduction in leaf area index（LAI） and gross primary productivity（GPP） values in deciduous and mixed forests in the region in *** Remote sensing derived, growing season mean LAI values of deciduous（mixed） forests were 3.66（3.18）, 2.74（2.64）, and 3.53（2.94） m2m-2in 2020, 2021 and 2022, respectively, indicating about 24（14）% reduction in LAI, as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. Similarly, growing season GPP values in deciduous（mixed） forests were 1338（1208）, 868（932）, and 1367（1175） g C m-2, respectively in 2020, 2021 and 2022, showing about 35（22）% reduction in GPP in 2021 as compared to pre-and post-infestation years. This infestation induced reduction in GPP of deciduous and mixed forests, when upscaled to whole study area（178,000 km2）, resulted in 21.1（21.4） Mt of C loss as compared to 2020（2022）, respectively. It shows the large scale of C losses caused by this infestation in Canadian Great Lakes *** The methods developed in this study offer valuable tools to assess and quantify natural disturbance impacts on the regional C balance of forest ecosystems by integrating field observations, high-resolution remote sensing data and models. study results will also help in developing sustainable forest management practices to achieve net-zero C emission goals through nature-based climate change solutions.

关键词： Spongy moth Infestation Carbon Gross ecosystem productivity Leaf area index Temperate forest Remote sensing Sentinel-2 Eddy covariance

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Projecting Spring Consecutive Rainfall Events in the Three Gorges Reservoir Based on Triple-Nested Dynamical Downscaling

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1539-1558页

作者： Yanxin ZHENG Shuanglin LI Noel KEENLYSIDE Shengping HE Lingling SUO Department of Atmospheric Science CMA-CUG Joint Centre for Severe Weather and Climate and Hydro-geological HazardsChina University of GeosciencesWuhan 430074China Institute of Atmospheric Physics and climate change Research Center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Three Gorges National Climatological Observatory Yichang 443099China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research centre Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

Spring consecutive rainfall events(CREs) are key triggers of geological hazards in the Three Gorges Reservoir area(TGR), China. However, previous projections of CREs based on the direct outputs of global climate models(GCMs) are subject to considerable uncertainties, largely caused by their coarse resolution. This study applies a triple-nested WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting) model dynamical downscaling, driven by a GCM, MIROC6(Model for Interdisciplinary Research on climate, version 6), to improve the historical simulation and reduce the uncertainties in the future projection of CREs in the TGR. Results indicate that WRF has better performances in reproducing the observed rainfall in terms of the daily probability distribution, monthly evolution and duration of rainfall events, demonstrating the ability of WRF in simulating CREs. Thus, the triple-nested WRF is applied to project the future changes of CREs under the middle-of-the-road and fossil-fueled development scenarios. It is indicated that light and moderate rainfall and the duration of continuous rainfall spells will decrease in the TGR, leading to a decrease in the frequency of CREs. Meanwhile, the duration, rainfall amount, and intensity of CREs is projected to regional increase in the central-west TGR. These results are inconsistent with the raw projection of MIROC6. Observational diagnosis implies that CREs are mainly contributed by the vertical moisture advection. Such a synoptic contribution is captured well by WRF, which is not the case in MIROC6,indicating larger uncertainties in the CREs projected by MIROC6.

关键词： triple-nested downscaling Three Gorges Reservoir area consecutive rainfall events geological hazards projection

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Climatic impacts induced by winter wheat irrigation over North China simulated by the nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7

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Advances in climate change Research 2024年第2期15卷 197-210页

作者： Jia WU Zhen-Yu HAN Xue-Jie GAO Zheng-Jia LIU National climate centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory for climate Studies China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China climate change Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China

Quantification of the impact of winter wheat irrigation on the climate and the occurrence of extreme climatic events over North China is crucial for regional adaptation *** related studies mainly focused on the impact on surface processes;however,few focused on the effects of extreme events using high-resolution nonhydrostatic regional climate ***,the 9-km-resolution nonhydrostatic RegCM4.7 was coupled with a crop irrigation scheme and an updated winter wheat irrigation dataset to better simulate irrigation *** experiments were conducted with and without winter wheat irrigation to isolate the effects of *** showed that irrigation simulation reduces the model biases in temperature,precipitation,latent heat flux,soil moisture,sensitive heat flux,and top-layer soil ***,it also reduces the bias and increases the correlation with observations obtained in irrigated areas,especially in summer,indicating better representation of irrigation *** wheat irrigation tends to cause substantial cooling of the local surface maximum,minimum,and mean air temperatures(by-1.68,-0.34,and-0.79℃,respectively)over irrigated areas of North China,with the largest changes observed in relation to maximum ***,precipitation is found to increase during spring and summer,which is strongly related to water vapor transport in the lower levels of the *** analyses indicated that the number of annual mean hot days decrease(-13.9 d),whereas the number of both comfort days(+10.2 d)and rainy days(days with total precipitation greater than 1 mm:+6.6 d)increase over irrigated areas,demonstrating beneficial feedback to human perception and ***,although the heat wave risk increases(number of annual mean heat wave days:+5.8 d),the impact is limited to small areas within irrigated ***,no notable change was found in terms of heavy rainfall events and precipitation intensity

关键词： Nonhydrostatic regional climate model Irrigation effect Extreme events North China

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Comprehending drivers of land use land cover change from 1999 to 2021 in the Pithoragarh District,Kumaon Himalaya,Uttarakhand,India

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第7期21卷 2394-2407页

作者： Mahika PHARTIYAL Sanjeev SHARMA centre for the study of Regional Development Jawaharlal Nehru UniversityNew Delhi 110067India

The Himalayan region has been experiencing stark impacts of climate change,demographic and livelihood pattern *** analysis of land use and land cover(LULC)change provides insights into the shifts in spatial and temporal patterns of *** changes are the combined effects of anthropogenic and natural/climatic *** present study attempts to monitor and comprehend the main drivers behind LULC changes(1999-2021)in the Himalayan region of Pithoragarh district,*** district is a border district,remotely located in the north-east region of Uttarakhand,*** study draws upon primary and secondary data sources.A total of 400 household surveys and five group discussions from 38 villages were conducted randomly to understand the climate perception of the local community and the drivers of *** imagery,CRU(Climatic Research Unit)climate data and climate perception data from the field have been used to comprehensively comprehend,analyze,and discuss the trends and reasons for LULC *** and remote sensing techniques were used to construct LULC *** multifaceted approach ensures comprehensive and corroborated *** classes were identified and formed viz-cultivation,barren,settlement,snow,and *** show that vegetation and builtup have increased whereas cultivation,barren land,and snow cover have *** study further aims to elucidate the causes behind LULC changes in the spatially heterogeneous region,distinguishing between those attributed to human activities,climate shifts,and the interconnected impacts of *** study provides a comprehensive picture of the study area and delivers a targeted understanding of local drivers and their potential remedies by offering a foundation for formulating sustainable adaptation policies in the region.

关键词： Himalayan region Land use/land cover change Anthropogenic factors climate change Socioecological system

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Evaluation of soil loss severity and ecological restoration approach for sustainable agriculture in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya region

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第5期21卷 1509-1521页

作者： Arshad ASHRAF Imran AHMAD climate Energy and Water Research InstituteNational Agricultural Research Centre(NARC)Islamabad 44000Pakistan

Soil erosion has resulted in removal of the topsoils containing fine soil particles and plant nutrients, causing decrease in soil fertility in the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalaya(HKH) region. The existing production of cereal crop grains has been reduced to one third of the potential crop grains production owing to land degradation and poor farming practices. It is necessary to assess risk of soil loss and identify appropriate controlling measures to address issues of low agriculture productivity and water insecurity in the region. In the present study, severity of soil loss was predicted using Revised Universal Loss Equation(RUSLE) and ecological measures were identified for sustainable mountain agriculture in the HKH region of Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. Overall 62.6% area was found to have very low risk of soil loss, i.e., 100 t/(ha·yr) in about 6.8% and 7.4% areas respectively. The mean rate of soil loss was about 41.9 t/(ha·yr) in the Hindu Kush, 31.1 t/(ha·yr) in the Himalayas, 18.8 t/(ha·yr) in the Karakoram and overall 29.7 t/(ha·yr) in the three HKH ranges. As such no considerable measures have been adopted by the communities for restoration of the degraded areas except raising fruit/farm trees and supporting limited social forestry for their livelihoods. The slopes cleared for cultivation and susceptible to erosion may be stabilized through sowing/planting of multi-purpose plant species and formation of proper bench terraces. The conservation of forest ecosystem and pastures at higher elevations would help in reducing overland water flow, risk of flash flood hazard and minimizing sediment loads in the downstream. It is essential to adopt site-specific resource conservation techniques and restore possible ecosystem health for sustainable agriculture and economic developm

关键词： climate change Erodibility Indus basin Land degradation Slope stabilization

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Winter extreme precipitation over the Tibetan Plateau influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale

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Advances in climate change Research 2024年第4期15卷 42-51页

作者： Qing-Quan LI Miao BI Song YANG Qing-Yuan WU Yi-Hui DING Xin-Yong SHEN Xiao-Ting SUN Meng-Chu ZHAO China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science and TechnologyNanjing 210044China CMA Key Open Laboratory of Transforming climate Resources to Economy Chongqing Institute of Meteorological SciencesChongqing 401147China School of Atmospheric Sciences and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for climate change and Natural Disaster Studies Sun Yat-sen University Zhuhai 519082China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

The Tibetan Plateau(TP)and the Arctic are the most sensitive regions to global climate ***,the interdecadal varibility of winter extreme precipitation over the TP and its linkage with Arctic sea ice are still *** this study,the characteristics and mechisnems of the TP extreme precipitation(TPEP)influenced by Arctic sea ice on interdecadal timescale are studied based on the daily precipitation,monthly sea ice concentration and ERA5 reanalysis data from 1980 to *** found that the dominant mode of the TPEP in winter mostly exhibits a uniform spatial variation on the interdecadal timescale,with an opposite weak variation in the southeastern TP,and the Arctic sea ice concentration(SIC)before 2002 are larger than that after *** interdecadal variation of TPEP is affected by two teleconnection wave trains regulated by the Barents and Kara Sea *** the light ice years,a remarkable positive geopotential height(HGT)anomaly appears over the Barents-Kara Sea and a remarkable negative HGT anomaly is located over the Lake *** wave trains originating over the Barents-Kara Sea can be *** southern branch forms a wave train through the North Atlantic along the subtropical westerly jet stream,showing a‘+-+-+'pattern of HGT anomalies from Arctic to the *** HGT anomaly controls the western TP,which creates dynamic and water vapor conditions for the *** northern branch forms a wave train through the Lake Baikal and the southeast of the TP,showing a‘+-+'HGT anomaly *** HGT anomaly controls the southeastern TP,which is not conducive to precipitation in the *** the SIC in the Barents-Kara Sea increases,the situation is *** above analysis also reveals the reason for the difference in the east-west distribution of the TPEP.

关键词： Arctic sea ice Tibetan Plateau Winter extreme precipitation Rossby wave activity Interdecadal variation

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Performance validation of High Mountain Asia 8-meter Digital Elevation Model using ICESat-2 geolocated photons

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Journal of Mountain Science 2024年第8期21卷 2562-2578页

作者： Giribabu DANDABATHULA Subham ROY Omkar Shashikant GHATAGE Vaibhav Balaso KOLASE Shwetambari SATPUTE Koushik GHOSH Sahibnoor KAUR Satyanarayana PONDARI Apurba Kumar BERA Sushil Kumar SRIVASTAV Regional Remote Sensing centre-West National Remote Sensing CentreIndian Space Research OrganisationJodhpur 342005India Department of Geography School of Earth SciencesBharathidasan UniversityTiruchirappalli 620024India centre for climate change and Water Research Suresh Gyan Vihar UniversityJaipur 302017India Department of Geography Panjab UniversityChandigarh 160014India National Remote Sensing centre Indian Space Research OrganisationHyderabad 500037India Regional centres National Remote Sensing CentreIndian Space Research OrganisationNew Delhi 110049India

High Mountain Asia(HMA),recognized as a third pole,needs regular and intense studies as it is susceptible to climate *** accurate and high-resolution Digital Elevation Model(DEM)for this region enables us to analyze it in a 3D environment and understand its intricate role as the Water Tower of *** science teams of NASA realized an 8-m DEM using satellite stereo imagery for HMA,termed HMA 8-m *** this research,we assessed the vertical accuracy of HMA 8-m DEM using reference elevations from ICESat-2 geolocated photons at three test sites of varied topography and land *** were made from statistical quantifiers and elevation *** the world’s highest mountain,Mount Everest,and its surroundings,Root Mean Squared Error(RMSE)and Mean Absolute Error(MAE)resulted in 1.94 m and 1.66 m,respectively;however,a uniform positive bias observed in the elevation profiles indicates the seasonal snow cover change will dent the accurate estimation of the elevation in this sort of test *** second test site containing gentle slopes with forest patches has exhibited the Digital Surface Model(DSM)features with RMSE and MAE of 0.58 m and 0.52 m,*** third test site,situated in the Zanda County of the Qinghai-Tibet,is a relatively flat terrain bed,mostly bare earth with sudden river cuts,and has minimal errors with RMSE and MAE of 0.32 m and 0.29 m,respectively,and with a negligible ***,in one more test site,the feasibility of detecting the glacial lakes was tested,which resulted in exhibiting a flat surface over the surface of the lakes,indicating the potential of HMA 8-m DEM for deriving the hydrological *** results accrued in this investigation confirm that the HMA 8-m DEM has the best vertical accuracy and should be of high use for analyzing natural hazards and monitoring glacier surfaces.

关键词： High Mountain Asia Digital Elevation Model ICESat-2 geolocated photons Accuracy assessment

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Mapping climate Services for Disaster Risk Management: A Systematic Review and Research Gaps from a Policy Process Perspective

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American Journal of climate change 2024年第2期13卷 314-360页

作者： Aboubacar Issaka Ousman Gaoh Wolfram Laube Georges Abbevi Abbey Moussa Waongo West African Science Service centre on climate change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Accra Ghana Department of Geography-DRP-climate change and Disaster Risk Management University of Lom Lom Togo Department of Political and Cultural change Centre for Development Research (ZEF) University of Bonn Bonn Germany Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Management School of Agriculture University of Lom Lom Togo Department of Training and Research Regional Centre for West Africa and the Sahel (AGRHYMET) Niamey Niger

climate services (CS) are crucial for mitigating and managing the impacts and risks associated with climate-induced disasters. While evidence over the past decade underscores their effectiveness across various domains, particularly agriculture, to maximize their potential, it is crucial to identify emerging priority areas and existing research gaps for future research agendas. As a contribution to this effort, this paper employs the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) methodology to review the state-of-the-art in the field of climate services for disaster risk management. A comprehensive search across five literature databases combined with a snowball search method using ResearchRabbit was conducted and yielded 242 peer-reviewed articles, book sections, and reports over 2013-2023 after the screening process. The analysis revealed flood, drought, and food insecurity as major climate-related disasters addressed in the reviewed literature. Major climate services addressed included early warning systems, (sub)seasonal forecasts and impact-based warnings. Grounded in the policy processes’ theoretical perspective, the main focus identified and discussed three prevailing policy-oriented priority areas: 1) development of climate services, 2) use-adoption-uptake, and 3) evaluation of climate services. In response to the limitations of the prevalent supply-driven and top-down approach to climate services promotion, co-production emerges as a cross-cutting critical aspect of the identified priority areas. Despite the extensive research in the field, more attention is needed, particularly pronounced in the science-policy interface perspective, which in practice bridges scientific knowledge and policy decisions for effective policy processes. This perspective offers a valuable analytical lens as an entry point for further investigation. Hence, future research agendas would generate insightful evidence by scrutinizing this critical aspect g

关键词： climate Services Disaster Risk Management Policy Process Science-Policy Interface Institutional Analysis

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Projecting Wintertime Newly Formed Arctic Sea Ice through Weighting CMIP6 Model Performance and Independence

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1465-1482页

作者： Jiazhen ZHAO Shengping HE Ke FAN Huijun WANG Fei LI Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change(ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate ResearchBergen 5007Norway School of Atmospheric Science Sun Yat-sen Universityand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Zhuhai 519082China Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center and Bjerknes centre for climate Research Bergen 5007Norway Nansen-Zhu International Research Center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai) Zhuhai 519082China

Precipitous Arctic sea-ice decline and the corresponding increase in Arctic open-water areas in summer months give more space for sea-ice growth in the subsequent cold seasons. Compared to the decline of the entire Arctic multiyear sea ice,changes in newly formed sea ice indicate more thermodynamic and dynamic information on Arctic atmosphere–ocean–ice interaction and northern mid–high latitude atmospheric teleconnections. Here, we use a large multimodel ensemble from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP6) to investigate future changes in wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice. The commonly used model-democracy approach that gives equal weight to each model essentially assumes that all models are independent and equally plausible, which contradicts with the fact that there are large interdependencies in the ensemble and discrepancies in models' performances in reproducing observations. Therefore, instead of using the arithmetic mean of well-performing models or all available models for projections like in previous studies, we employ a newly developed model weighting scheme that weights all models in the ensemble with consideration of their performance and independence to provide more reliable projections. Model democracy leads to evident bias and large intermodel spread in CMIP6 projections of newly formed Arctic sea ice. However, we show that both the bias and the intermodel spread can be effectively reduced by the weighting scheme. Projections from the weighted models indicate that wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice is likely to increase dramatically until the middle of this century regardless of the emissions ***, it may decrease(or remain stable) if the Arctic warming crosses a threshold(or is extensively constrained).

关键词： wintertime newly formed Arctic sea ice model democracy model weighting scheme model performance model independence

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Will the 2022 compound heatwaveedrought extreme over the Yangtze River Basin become Grey Rhino in the future?

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Advances in climate change Research 2024年第3期15卷 547-556页

作者： Ai-Qing FENG Qing-Chen CHAO Lu-Lu LIU Ge GAO Guo-Fu WANG Xue-Jun ZHANG Qi-Guang WANG China Meteorological Administration Key Laboratory for climate Prediction Studies National Climate CentreBeijing 100081China Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources ResearchChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100101China China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research Beijing 100038China China Meteorological Administration Training centre China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China

The increasingly frequent and severe regional-scale compound heatwave-drought extreme events(CHDEs),driven by global warming,present formidable challenges to ecosystems,residential livelihoods,and economic ***,uncertainty persists regarding the future trend of CHDEs and their insights into regional spatiotemporal *** integrating daily meteorological data from observations in 1961-2022 and global climate models(GCMs)based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways,the evolution patterns of CHDEs were compared and examined among three sub-catchments of the Yangtze River Basin,and the return periods of CHDE in 2050s and 210Os were *** findings indicate that the climate during the 2022 CHDE period was the warmest and driest recorded in 1961-2022,with precipitation less than 154.5 mm and a mean daily maximum temperature 3.4°C higher than the average of 1981-2010,whereas the char-acteristics in the sub-catchments exhibited temporal and spatial *** July-August 2022,the most notable feature of CHDE was its extremeness since 1961,with return periods of~200-year in upstream,80-year in midstream,and 40-year in downstream,*** 2050,the return periods witnessed 2022 CHDE would likely be reduced by *** towards 2100,under the highest emission scenario of SSP585,it was projected to substantially increase the frequency of CHDEs,with return periods reduced to one-third in the upstream and downstream,as well as halved in the *** findings provide valuable insights into the changing risks associated with forthcoming climate extremes,emphasizing the urgency of addressing these challenges in regional management and sustainable development.

关键词： Compound extreme event Joint return period Drought Heatwave climate change Yangtze River Basin

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