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Stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification applied to porosity modeling and igneous rock identification

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Petroleum Science 2024年第2期21卷 918-935页

作者： Fábio Júnior Damasceno Fernandes Leonardo Teixeira Antonio Fernando Menezes Freire Wagner Moreira Lupinacci Exploratory Interpretation and Reservoir Characterization Group(GIECAR) Department of Geology and GeophysicsFederal Fluminense UniversityNiter oiRJ24210-346Brazil Petrobras Rio de JaneiroRJ20231-030Brazil National Institute of Science and Technology of Petroleum Geophysics(INCT-GP/CNPQ) Niter oiRJ24210-346Brazil

We apply stochastic seismic inversion and Bayesian facies classification for porosity modeling and igneous rock identification in the presalt interval of the Santos Basin. This integration of seismic and well-derived information enhances reservoir characterization. Stochastic inversion and Bayesian classification are powerful tools because they permit addressing the uncertainties in the model. We used the ES-MDA algorithm to achieve the realizations equivalent to the percentiles P10, P50, and P90 of acoustic impedance, a novel method for acoustic inversion in presalt. The facies were divided into five: reservoir 1,reservoir 2, tight carbonates, clayey rocks, and igneous rocks. To deal with the overlaps in acoustic impedance values of facies, we included geological information using a priori probability, indicating that structural highs are reservoir-dominated. To illustrate our approach, we conducted porosity modeling using facies-related rock-physics models for rock-physics inversion in an area with a well drilled in a coquina bank and evaluated the thickness and extension of an igneous intrusion near the carbonate-salt interface. The modeled porosity and the classified seismic facies are in good agreement with the ones observed in the wells. Notably, the coquinas bank presents an improvement in the porosity towards the top. The a priori probability model was crucial for limiting the clayey rocks to the structural lows. In Well B, the hit rate of the igneous rock in the three scenarios is higher than 60%, showing an excellent thickness-prediction capability.

关键词： Stochastic inversion Bayesian classification Porosity modeling Carbonate reservoirs Igneous rocks

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To supervise or to self‑supervise:a machine learning based comparison on credit supervision

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Financial Innovation 2021年第1期7卷 562-582页

作者： JoséAmérico Pereira Antunes central bank of brazil Av Presidente Vargas730Rio de Janeiro 20231‑044Brazil

This study investigates the need for credit supervision as conducted by on-site banking *** builds on a real bank on-site credit examination to compare the performance of a hypothetical self-supervision approach,in which banks themselves assess their loan portfolios without external intervention,with the on-site banking supervision approach of the central bank of *** experiment develops two machine learning classification models:the first model is based on good and bad ratings informed by banks,and the second model is based on past on-site credit portfolio examinations conducted by banking *** findings show that the overall performance of the on-site supervision approach is consistently higher than the performance of the self-supervision approach,justifying the need for on-site credit portfolio examination as conducted by the central bank.

关键词： bank supervision Machine learning Loan loss provisions On-site credit supervision

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The Impact of the Monetary Policy During the COVID-19 in the brazilian banking Sector

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Chinese Business Review 2024年第2期23卷 60-75页

作者： Karina Robial Michele Nascimento Jucá Mackenzie Presbiterian University Sao PauloBrazil

The COVID-19 pandemic caused an outbreak on the global productive chains,transforming companies and society in *** adopted anticyclical policies such as basic interest rates reduction as *** basic interest rate is denominated *** application of these policies requires the protagonist of bank’s financial *** study aims to verify two events-under the perspective of the efficient markets’*** first is the communication of the first death by COVID-19-and the subsequent,Selic rate reduction to 2%p.a.-and its effects on bank’s shares *** hypotheses presented are:H1-The announcement of the first death by COVID-19 negatively impacts the banks’shares returns and H2-The announcement of the Selic interest rate-during the COVID-19-positively impacts the return of the banks’*** adopt event study methodology in a final sample of nine and 15 banks to Events 1 and 2 *** results confirm H1 as well as the semi-strong informational efficiency market.H2 is not *** confirm the non-effectiveness of the anticyclical policy of basic interest rate *** contributes to the discussion about the impacts of COVID-19 and the efficacy of anticyclical policies.

关键词： monetary policy COVID-19 banks brazil event study

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Congenital heart diseases trends in S?o Paulo State,brazil:a national live birth data bank analysis

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World Journal of Pediatrics 2022年第7期18卷 472-481页

作者： Paola Soares Fernandes Larissa Rosario Magalhaes Tainara Rita Pezzini Edige Felipe de Sousa Santos Mauricio Giusti Calderon Medical School Nine of July University(Uni9).Sao Bernardo do CampoSPBrazil Epidemiology Department Public Health SchoolSao Paulo University(USP)Sao PauloSPBrazil Pediatric Surgery Department Hospital Benficencia Portuguesa de Sao PauloRua Maestro Cardim768Sao PauloSP CEP 01323-011Brazil Pediatric Surgery Department Hospital Santa Catarina PaulistaAv.Paulista200.Sao PauloSP CEP:01310-000Brazil

Background Congenital heart diseases(CHD)are the most common type of birth defects,affecting millions of newborns every year;no prevalence data are available in S?o Paulo State,brazil's most populous *** objective is to identify trends in prevalence and risk factors for CHD in Sao Paulo State,*** We developed a population-based study to estimate the CHD trend of prevalence in recent years,stratified by maternal age and geographical clusters,using all cases of CHD identified by the Live Births Information System(SINASC-Sistema de Informa??o Sobre Nascidos Vivos)from January 1,2005,to December 31,*** calculated the trends of prevalence,the regression coefficient(β),the annual percent change(APC),and 95%confidence interval using the Prais-Winsten regression model,with the Durbin-Watson *** We found 10,594 cases of CHD among 8,536,101 live births(LB),a prevalence of 12.4/10,000 *** was no difference in the sex distribution;they are primarily Caucasian(60.2%),75.2%born at term,and 74.4%weight>2500 g,66.9%of births were by cesarean section.S?o Paulo State presented an increasing CHD trend of prevalence(APC=18.9%).The highest CHD prevalence rate was in mothers aged≥35 years(22.2/10,000 LB).There were 12,271 specific congenital heart defects among 10,594 patients(1.16 CHD/patient).Atrial septal defect has the highest number of cases(3835),with a prevalence of 4.49/10,000 LB,corresponding to 31.3%of all *** CHD had an increasing prevalence trend in recent years,being highest in S?o Paulo City and≥35-year mothers.

关键词： Congenital abnormalities Epidemiology Heart defects Interrupted time series PrevalencePublic health

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The spatial variability of actual evapotranspiration across the Amazon River Basin based on remote sensing products validated with flux towers

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Ecological Processes 2019年第1期8卷 67-86页

作者： Victor Hugo da Motta Paca Gonzalo E.Espinoza-Dávalos Tim M.Hessels Daniel Medeiros Moreira Georges F.Comair Wim G.M.Bastiaanssen IHE Delft Institute for Water Education Westvest 7Delft 2611 AXNetherlands TU Delft DelftNetherlands CPRM-Geological Survey of brazil Rio de JaneiroBrazil World bank WashingtonD.C.USA

Actual evapotranspiration(ET)is a major component of the water *** several international flux measurement programs have been executed in the tropical rain forest of the Amazon,those measurements represent the evaporative process at a few selected sites *** aim of this study is to obtain the spatial distribution of ET,using remote sensing techniques,across the entire Amazon River *** from six global ET products based on remote sensing techniques(GLEAM,SEBS,ALEXI,CMRSET,MOD16,and SSEBop)were merged to obtain an ensemble prediction of the ET rates for the complex and in-accessible environment of the Amazon at a spatial resolution of 250 *** study shows that the basinwide average ET is 1316 mm/year with a standard deviation of 192 mm/*** new ET-Amazon product was validated against seven different historic flux tower *** energy balance closure of the in situ measurements varied between 86 and 116%.Only months with more than 70%completeness of in situ measurements were considered for *** procedures for closure correction were included in the *** correlation between measured and remotely sensed ET is good(R2>0.97 for consecutive periods of 2 to 12months),and the bias correction is negligible for the energy balance residual method,which seemed most *** ET values have more *** monthly RMSE values vary between 7.4 and 27.8 mm/month(the average RMSE is 22.2mm/month),and the coefficient of determination(R2)varies between 0.48 and 0.87(the average R2 is 0.53).The ET from the water balance is 1380 mm/year,being−64 mm/year difference and 4.6%less than ET derived from the water *** evaporation from the Amazon basin inside brazil is 5063 km3/year,followed by Peru with 1165 km3/***-Amazon shows more spatial details and accuracy than alternative global ET products such as LandFlux-EVAL,Model Tree Ensemble(MTE),and *** justifies the development of new regional ET pro

关键词： Amazon River Basin Evapotranspiration Flux towers measurements ET-Amazon product

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Use of testicular sperm for intracytoplasmic sperm injection in men with high sperm DNA fragmentation： a SWOT analysis

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Asian Journal of Andrology 2018年第1期20卷 1-8页

作者： Sandro C Esteves Matheus Roque Nicolas Garrido ANDROFERT Andrology and Human Reproduction Clinic Referral Center for Male Reproduction Av. Dr. Heitor Penteado 1464 Campinas SP 13075-460 Brazil ORIGEN Center for Reproductive Medicine Rio de Janeiro Brazil Andrology Laboratory and Sperm bank IVI Foundation Valencia Spain

Spermatozoa retrieved from the testis of men with high levels of sperm DNA fragmentation （SDF） in the neat semen tend to have better DNA quality. Given the negative impact of SDF on the outcomes of Assisted Reproductive Technology （ART）, an increased interest has emerged about the use of testicular sperm for intracytoplasmic sperm injection （Testi-ICSI）. In this article, we used a SWOT （strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats） analysis to summarize the advantages and drawbacks of this intervention. The rationale of Testi-ICSI is bypass posttesticular DNA fragmentation caused by oxidative stress during sperm transit through the epididymis. Hence, oocyte fertilization by genomically intact testicular spermatozoa may be optimized, thus increasing the chances of creating a normal embryonic genome and the likelihood of achieving a live birth, as recently demonstrated in men with high SDF. However, there is still limited evidence as regards the clinical efficacy of Testi-ICSI, thus creating opportunities for further confirmatory clinical research as well as investigation of Testi-ICSI in clinical scenarios other than high SDF. Furthermore, Testi-ICSI can be compared to other laboratory preparation methods for deselecting sperm with damaged DNA. At present, the available literature supports the use of testicular sperm when performing ICSI in infertile couples whose male partners have posttesticular SDF. Due to inherent risks of sperm retrieval, Testi-ICSI should be offered when less invasive treatments for alleviating DNA damage have failed. A call for continuous monitoring is nonetheless required concerning the health of generated offspring and the potential complications of sperm retrieval.

关键词： intracytoplasmic sperm injection male infertility sperm DNA fragmentation sperm retrieval SWOT analysis testicular sperm

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Basel III and central banks With Multiple Objectives： Convergences Between Targets

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Chinese Business Review 2014年第2期13卷 75-93页

作者： Marcelo Zeuli Banco central do Brasil Rio de Janeiro Brazil IAG/PUC Rio de Janeiro Brazil

This text evaluates the convergence among the main targets of a central bank, like the brazilian central bank, with that deals with objectives such as inflation targeting, bank regulation, and financial inclusion, when it operates subject to the bank for International Settlements （BIS） recommendations gathered in the recent Basel III agreement. A brazilian conjuncture analysis starts with the economic stabilization plan known as Piano Real （July, 1994） and takes account that, from 2007 onwards, the world economy is going through troubled times unchained by the international financial crisis that motivated the recent Basel Agreement （Basel III）. There are two lines of analysis： macroeconomic and marketing. From the macroeconomic approach, there are plenty models to predict money supply and monetary aggregates. From a marketing perspective, it can be inferred that technologies potentially innovatives may alter the current scenario. The financial time series chosen are： daily money supply, banking reserves, and annual inflation （monthly announced）. The first statistical and empirical evidences from the period （July, 1994 to December, 2011） show that the management of banking reserves does not interfere with the continuous growth of the monetary base plus demand deposits （M1） and cash in circulation, which possibly indicates an increasing financial inclusion. Moreover, there is no evidence that it creates inflationary pressures. The future works may require competencies pertinent to prospective finance and consumer behavior （marketing）.

关键词： Basel III finance inclusion inflation targeting volatility

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Value-at-Risk Approach to Currency Crises： A brazilian Example With the central bank and Currency Based Assets＊

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Chinese Business Review 2013年第9期12卷 593-609页

作者： Marcelo Zeuli Banco central do Brasil Rio de Janeiro Brazil IAG/PUC Rio de Janeiro Brazil

This paper uses a Value at Risk （VaR） approach to evaluate a country financial vulnerability, by analyzing the risk exposure of its central bank, as if their assets are subject to market risk. The brazilian currency exchange swaps contracts （USS/brazilian Reais） are submitted to a delta-normal VaR method, in order to evaluate the market risk of each swaps series, by modeling the variance of the daily returns, from August 1999 to January 2003. All daily returns series exhibited heteroscedasticity in the conditional variance and sudden changes in the unconditional variance. The points of changes of the unconditional variance were determined through the Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares （ICSS） algorithm, and the conditional variance was modeled with Markov-Switching-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity （SWGARCH） in order to capture heteroscedasticity and regime change. The results lead to two main conclusions： First, a VaR model must incorporate heteroscedasticity and regime switching in order to describe the variance of the tested series, submitted to brisk changes of economic and political scenarios. Second, a volatility-based VaR do not necessarily generate forward-looking indicators, but rather coincident indicators of possible financial vulnerabilities. The future research will evolve towards evaluating the effects of the Basel III recommendations as if they could be applied to this crisis period.

关键词： emerging markets market risk volatility GARCH models regime switching

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Angola’s Awakening

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ChinAfrica 2011年第7期3卷 30-32页

作者： Simon Freemantle Jeremy Stevens the Standard bank

BRIC is dominant in Angola’s economic awakening,with China a special and prominent partner Since the end of the civil war in 2002, Angola has moved from the fringe to the center of African economic ***,Angola accounts for 6 percent of Africa’s GDP,10 percent of its trade and 5 percent of continental-wide investment flows. Importantly,Angola’s economic awakening has occurred in tandem with the resurgence of BRIC(brazil,Russia,India and China) commercial interest in *** such,Angola is,

关键词： Angola’s Awakening CITIC

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A New Approach for Global Economic Governance:The New Development bank’s Role

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Contemporary World 2023年第5期 22-27页

作者： [brazil]Dilma Rousseff New Development bank

THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC DYNAMICS AND ITS CHALLENGES,In our contemporary era,the world grapples with a profound sense of uncertainty,marked by a confluence of crises:a severe climate crisis,a stark surge in inequality,sluggish economic growth,and the rise of trade *** challenges intertwine with the disruption of global value chains,geopolitical turbulence and multifaceted conflicts,collectively fostering an environment where instability and insecurity have become the norm.

关键词： collective inequality turbulence

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