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Impact of Assimilation of FY-4A GIIRS Three-Dimensional Horizontal Wind Observations on Typhoon Forecasts

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期42卷 467-485页

作者： Hao WANG Wei HAN Jun LI Hao CHEN Ruoying YIN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction center(CEMC) China Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China State Key Laboratory of Severe weather(LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China FYSIC National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological AdministrationBeijing 100081China Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Nanjing 210008China Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological AdministrationNanjing 210008China

Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information,but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal *** measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS),obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019),were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric *** work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the china meteorological administration(CMA-MESO),and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal *** standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min *** showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds,and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon *** typhoon prediction,assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track,and less influence on the maximum wind *** of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different *** of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by *** indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.

关键词： GIIRS 3D horizontal winds typhoon CMA-MESO

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Impact of Assimilation of FY-4A GIIRS Three-Dimensional Horizontal Wind Observations on Typhoon Forecasts

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2025年第3期 467-485页

作者： Hao WANG Wei HAN Jun LI Hao CHEN Ruoying YIN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction center (CEMC) China Meteorological Administration State Key Laboratory of Severe weather (LaSW) Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesChina Meteorological Administration FYSIC National Satellite Meteorological CenterChina Meteorological Administration Jiangsu meteorological Observatory Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology China Meteorological Administration

Measurements from a hyperspectral infrared(HIR) sounder onboard a satellite in geostationary orbit not only provide atmospheric thermodynamic information, but also can be used to infer dynamic information with high temporal *** measurements from the Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS), obtained with 15-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Maria(2018) and 30-min temporal resolution during Typhoon Lekima(2019), were used to derive three-dimensional(3D) horizontal winds by tracking the motion of atmospheric moisture. This work focused on the impact of assimilation of 3D winds on typhoon analyses and forecasts using the operational NWP model of the china meteorological administration(CMA-MESO), and improved understanding of the potential benefits of assimilating dynamic information from geostationary sounder data with higher temporal resolution. The standard deviation of the observations minus simulations revealed that the accuracy of the derived 3D winds with 15-min resolution was higher than that of derived winds with 30-min resolution. Experiments showed that the assimilation system can effectively absorb the information of the derived 3D winds, and that dynamic information from clear-sky areas can be transferred to typhoon areas. In typhoon prediction, assimilation of the derived 3D winds had greatest influence on the typhoon track, and less influence on the maximum wind speed. Assimilation of the derived 3D winds reduced the average track error by 17.4% for Typhoon Maria(2018) and by 3.5% for Typhoon Lekima(2019) during their entire 36-h forecasts initiated at different times. Assimilation of GIIRS dynamic information can substantially improve forecasts of heavy precipitation by CMAMESO. Results indicate that the assimilation of dynamic information from high-temporal-resolution geostationary HIR sounder data adds value for improved numerical weather prediction.

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Targeted sounding observations from geostationary satellite and impacts on high impact weather forecasts

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Science china Earth Sciences 2025年

作者： Wei HAN Ruoying YIN Jun LI Yongzhu LIU Jincheng WANG Yonghui LI Xiaohao QIN Zhiqing ZHANG Xueshun SHEN CMA Earth System Modeling and Prediction Centre (CEMC) State Key Laboratory of Severe weather (LaSW) National Satellite meteorological center State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences University of Chinese Academy of Sciences

In monitoring and predicting high-impact weather(HIW) events, targeted atmospheric temperature and moisture sounding observations in sensitive areas are more valuable than conventional observations. The conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) method and the linear singular vector(SV) method can be employed to identify these weather-sensitive areas for targeted observations. Such observations can be conducted by using hyperspectral infrared sounders onboard geostationary weather satellites. The Geostationary Interferometric Infrared Sounder(GIIRS) onboard china's Fengyun(FY)-4geostationary satellite series can provide atmospheric sounding observations with a temporal resolution of up to 15 min over areas prone to active weather events. GIIRS offers unprecedented opportunities for targeted observations, enabling flexible measurement modes that focus on weather-sensitive areas. High-temporal-resolution measurements not only reveal the threedimensional(3D) thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere, but also track moisture characteristics to capture the 3D dynamic structure. Moreover, high-temporal-resolution measurements of clear radiances can enhance atmospheric sounding retrievals(used for HIW situation awareness) and data assimilation(used to improve numerical weather prediction). The four-dimensional variational(4D-Var) system facilitates the utilization of the high-temporal-resolution GIIRS targeted observations. In this study,we explore the applications of FY-4A and FY-4B GIIRS targeted observations and focus on data assimilation based on the 4DVar system for improving HIW forecasts. Several typhoon cases are selected for impact analysis. Moreover, we compare CNOP and SV methods for identifying sensitive areas, and use the 4D-Var assimilation system of the Global Assimilation Forecasting System of the china meteorological administration(CMA-GFS) for real-time data assimilation. The results indicate hightemporal-resolution observations positively impact ty

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A COMPARISON OF THE BLENDING AND CONSTRAINING METHODS TO INTRODUCE LARGE-SCALE INFORMATION INTO GRAPES MESOSCALE ANALYSIS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2019年第2期25卷 227-244页

作者： YANG Mei-jin GONG Jian-dong WANG Rui-chun ZHUANG Zhao-rong XU Zhi-fang Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology center of numerical weather predication china meteorological administration National meteorological center

To solve the problem of mesoscale analysis error accumulation after a period of continuous cycle data assimilation(CCDA), a blending method and a constraining method are compared to introduce global analysis information into the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System mesoscale three-dimensional variational data assimilation system(GRAPES-Meso 3 DVar). Based on a spatial filter used to obtain a blended analysis,the blending method is weighted toward the T639 global analysis for scales larger than the cutoff wavelength of 1,200 km and toward the GRAPES mesoscale analysis for wavelengths below that. The constraining method considers the T639 global analysis data as an extra source of information to be added in the 3 DVar cost function. The cloud-resolving GRAPES-Meso system(3 km resolution) with a 3 h analysis cycle update is chosen, and forecast experiments on an extreme precipitation event over the eastern part of china are presented. The comparison shows that the inclusion of large-scale information with both methods has a positive impact on the regional model, in which the 3 h background forecasts are slightly closer to the radiosonde observations. The results also show that both methods are effective in improving large-scale analysis while reserving the well-featured mesoscale information, leading to an enhancement in the balance and accuracy of the analysis. Subjective verification reveals that the introduction of large-scale information has a visible beneficial impact on the forecast of precipitation location and intensity. The methodologies and experiences presented in this paper could serve as a reference for ongoing efforts toward the development of multi-scale analysis in GRAPES-Meso.

关键词： numerical prediction data assimilation blending and constraining method large-scale information GRAPES mesoscale analysis

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Modification of Cumulus Convection and Planetary Boundary Layer Schemes in the GRAPES Global Model

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Journal of meteorological Research 2015年第5期29卷 806-822页

作者：刘琨陈起英孙健 National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration numerical weather Prediction center of china meteorological administration

Cumulus convection is a key linkage between hydrological cycle and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Cumulus parameterization scheme is an important component in numerical weather and climate modeling studies. In the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System （GRAPES）, turbulent mixing and diffusion approach is applied in its shallow convection scheme. This method overestimates the vertical transport of heat and moisture fluxes but underestimates cloud water mixing ratio over the region of stratocumulus clouds. As a result, the simulated low stratocumulus clouds are less than observations. To overcome this problem, a mass flux method is employed in the shallow convection scheme to replace the original one. Meanwhile, the deep convection scheme is adjusted correspondingly. This modification is similar to that in the US NCEP Global Forecast System （GFS）, which uses the simplified Arakawa Schubert Scheme （SAS）. The planetary boundary layer scheme （PBL） is also revised by considering the coupling between the PBL and stratocumulus clouds. With the modification of both the cumulus and PBL schemes, the GRAPES simulation of shallow convective heating rate becomes more reasonable; total amounts of stratocumulus clouds simulated over the eastern Pacific and their vertical structure are more consistent with observations; the underestimation of stratocumulus clouds simulated by original schemes is less severe with the revised schemes. Precipitation distribution in the tropics becomes more reasonable and spurious precipitation is effectively suppressed. The westward extension and northward movement of the western Pacific subtropical high simulated with the revised schemes are more consistent with Final Operational Global Analysis （FNL） than that simulated with the original schemes. The statistical scores for the global GRAPES forecast are generally improved with the revised schemes, especially for the simulation of geopotential height in the Northern Hemisphe

关键词： GRAPES model cumulus parameterization boundary layer diffusion mass flux

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Evaluation of the NMC Regional Ensemble Prediction System During the Beijing 2008 Olympic Games

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Acta meteorologica Sinica 2011年第5期25卷 568-580页

作者：李晓莉田华邓国 The center of numerical weather Prediction China Meteorological Administration

Based on the B08RDP（Beijing 2008 Olympic Games Mesoscale Ensemble Prediction Research and Development Project） that was launched by the World weather Research Programme（WWRP） in 2004,a regional ensemble prediction system（REPS） at a 15-km horizontal resolution was developed at the National meteorological center（NMC） of the china meteorological administration（CMA）.Supplementing to the forecasters＇ subjective affirmation on the promising performance of the REPS during the 2008 Beijing Olympic Games（BOG）,this paper focuses on the objective verification of the REPS for precipitation forecasts during the BOG *** use of a set of advanced probabilistic verification scores,the value of the REPS compared to the quasi-operational global ensemble prediction system（GEPS） is assessed for a 36-day period（21 July-24 August 2008）.The evaluation here involves different aspects of the REPS and GEPS,including their general forecast skills,specific attributes（reliability and resolution）,and related economic *** results indicate that the REPS generally performs significantly better for the short-range precipitation forecasts than the GEPS,and for light to heavy rainfall events,the REPS provides more skillful forecasts for accumulated 6-and 24-h *** further identifying the performance of the REPS through the attribute-focused measures,it is found that the advantages of the REPS over the GEPS come from better reliability（smaller biases and better dispersion） and increased ***,evaluation of a decision-making score reveals that a much larger group of users benefits from using the REPS forecasts than using the single model（the control run） forecasts,especially for the heavy rainfall events.

关键词： regional ensemble prediction ensemble verification probabilistic scores

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VERIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE RAINFALL PREDICTIONS FROM CMA AND JMA GLOBAL MODELS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2012年第4期18卷 537-542页

作者：王雨沈学顺陈德辉 numerical weather Prediction center China Meteorological Administration

The number of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis over the South china Sea and the Northwest Pacific Ocean in 2009 is significantly less than the average (27.4). However, the number of landfall TC over china's Mainland and its associated rainfall is more than the average. This paper focuses on the performance of numerical weather prediction (NWP) of landfall TC precipitation over china in 2009. The china meteorological administration (CMA) and Japan meteorological Agency (JMA) models are compared. Although the schemes of physical processes, the data assimilation system and the dynamic frame are entirely different for the two models, the results of forecast verification are similar to each other for TC rainfall and track except for TC Goni. In this paper, a day with daily rainfall amount greater than 50 mm was selected as a storm rain day when there was a TC affecting the mainland. There are 32 storm rain days related to the landing of typhoons and tropical depressions. The rainfall forecast verification methods of National meteorological Centre (NMC) of CMA are selected to verify the models' rainfall forecast. Observational precipitation analyses related to TCs in 2009 indicate a U-shape spatial distribution in china. It is found that the rain belt forecasted by the two models within 60 hours shows good agreement with observations, both in the location and the maximum rainfall center. Beyond 3 days, the forecasted rainfall belt shifts northward on average, and the rainfall amount of the model forecasts becomes under-predicted. The rainfall intensity of CMA model forecast is more reasonable than that of JMA model. For heavy rain, the JMA model made more missing forecasts. The TC rainfall is verified in Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian and Hainan where rainfall amount related to TCs is relatively larger than in other regions. The results indicate that the model forecast for Guangdong and Guangxi is more skillful than that for Hainan. The rainfall forecast for Hainan remains diffi

关键词： tropical cyclone rainfall model verification

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Assimilation of Chinese Fengyun-3B Microwave Temperature Sounder radiances into the Global GRAPES system with an improved cloud detection threshold

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Frontiers of Earth Science 2016年第1期10卷 145-158页

作者： Juan LI Guiqing LIU numerical weather Prediction center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China National meteorological center China Meteorological Administration Beijing 100081 China

Fengyun-3B （FY-3B） is the second polar- orbiting satellite in the new Fengyun-three series. This paper describes the assimilation of the FY-3B Microwave Temperature Sounder （MWTS） radiances in the Chinese numerical weather prediction system - the Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System （GRAPES）. A quality control procedure for the assimilation of the FY- 3B MWTS radiance was proposed. Extensive monitoring before assimilation shows that the observations of channel 4 are notably contaminated. Channels 2 and 3 are used in this research. A cloud detection algorithm with an improved cloud-detection threshold is determined and incorporated into the impact experiments. The clear field- of-view （FOV） percentage increased from 42% to 57% with the new threshold. In addition, the newly added FOVs are located in the clear region, as demonstrated by the cloud liquid water path data from NOAA-18. The impact of the MWTS radiances on the prediction of GRAPES was researched. The observation biases ofFY-3B MWTS O-B （differences between satellite observations and model simulations） significantly decreased after an empirical bias correction procedure. After assimilation, the residual biases are small. The assimilation of the FY-3B MWTS radiances shows a positive impact in the Northern Hemisphere and a neutral impact in the Southern Hemisphere.

关键词： Fengyun-3B (FY-3B) MWTS quality control GRAPES

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Momentum Budget Diagnosis and the Parameterization of Subgrid-Scale Orographic Drag in Global GRAPES

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Journal of meteorological Research 2016年第5期30卷 771-788页

作者： CHEN qiying SHEN Xueshun SUN Jian LIU Kun National meteorological center Beijing 100081 numerical weather Prediction center of the china meteorological administration Beijing 100081

The initial tendency approach is used to diagnose systematic errors in global GRAPES （Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System）, including overly strong westerlies in the northern midlatitudes, cold/warm bias dipoles in the vicinity of the tropopause, and excessively strong southerlies in downstream regions of the Tibetan Plateau. This approach, involving the use of the assimilation system, focuses on the first few time steps of numerical weather forecasts to identify the deficiencies in diabatic forcing. The results show that there is insufficient diabatic dissipation in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere of the northern midlatitudes and the lower troposphere of most latitudes, which results from the absence of a parameterization of subgrid orographic drag in global GRAPES. A scheme to parameterize the effects of these drags is therefore tested and the experiments indicate that the newly introduced scheme reduces zonal momentum budget residuals, weakens the northern midlatitude westerlies and southerlies in the downstream regions of the Tibetan Plateau, decreases the cold/warm bias dipoles, and leads to improved objective verification scores.

关键词： momentum budget diagnosis initial tendency approach gravity-wave drag blocked-flow drag

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Assessing Hourly Precipitation Forecast Skill with the Fractions Skill Score

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Journal of meteorological Research 2018年第1期32卷 135-145页

作者： Bin ZHAO Bo ZHANG National meteorological center Beijing 100081 china meteorological administration numerical weather Prediction center Beijing 100081

Statistical methods for category（yes/no） forecasts, such as the Threat Score, are typically used in the verification of precipitation forecasts. However, these standard methods are affected by the so-called ＂double-penalty＂ problem caused by slight displacements in either space or time with respect to the observations. Spatial techniques have recently been developed to help solve this problem. The fractions skill score（FSS）, a neighborhood spatial verification method, directly compares the fractional coverage of events in windows surrounding the observations and *** applied the FSS to hourly precipitation verification by taking hourly forecast products from the GRAPES（Global/Regional Assimilation Prediction System） regional model and quantitative precipitation estimation products from the National meteorological Information center of china during July and August 2016, and investigated the difference between these results and those obtained with the traditional category score. We found that the model spin-up period affected the assessment of stability. Systematic errors had an insignificant role in the fraction Brier score and could be ignored. The dispersion of observations followed a diurnal cycle and the standard deviation of the forecast had a similar pattern to the reference maximum of the fraction Brier score. The coefficient of the forecasts and the observations is similar to the FSS; that is, the FSS may be a useful index that can be used to indicate *** with the traditional skill score, the FSS has obvious advantages in distinguishing differences in precipitation time series, especially in the assessment of heavy rainfall.

关键词： neighborhood spatial verification method fractions skill score traditional category score hourly precipitation heavy rainfall

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