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From fundamental theory to realistic modeling of the birth of solar eruptions

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年

作者： Chaowei JIANG Shenzhen Key Laboratory of numerical prediction for Space Storm Harbin Institute of Technology

Solar eruptions, primarily manifested as solar flares, filament eruptions and coronal mass ejections, represent explosive releases of magnetic energy stored in the solar corona, with the potential to drive severe space weather. The initiation of solar eruptions remains an open question, leading to various theoretical models that are inferred from observations. However,these models are subjects of debate due to the absence of direct measurements of the three-dimensional(3D) magnetic fields in the corona. numerical simulations, based on solving magnetohydrodynamics(MHD) equations that govern the macroscopic dynamics of solar corona, serve as a touchstone for testing these theoretical models. One early proposed model suggested that eruptions could be triggered by reconnection within a single sheared magnetic arcade, which is known as the tether-cutting reconnection model, but it was never confirmed through 3D MHD simulations until very recently. Consequently, two models have gained more popularity: one involving the eruption of a twisted magnetic flux rope(MFR) due to ideal instability(or loss of equilibrium), and the other known as the breakout eruption, which requires a quadrupolar configuration with a delicately located magnetic null point. Other mixed mechanisms, involving both ideal instability and reconnection, are also proposed in association with localized magnetic flux emergence. Now with the validation of the tether-cutting model, the fundamental mechanisms are boiled down to two types of models, one primarily based on the ideal instability of a pre-existing MFR, and the other based on the reconnection of sheared field lines with or without an MFR. Recently, the modelling of the birth of solar eruption using observed data-based MHD simulations has advanced rapidly, becoming a crucial research tool in the study of the initiation mechanisms. These realistic modellings reveal a higher level of complexity compared to all currently available theories and idealized

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Characteristics and triggering mechanisms of early negative Indian Ocean Dipole

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第3期43卷 59-65页

作者： Yue Fang Shuangwen Sun Yongcan Zu Jianhu Wang Lin Feng First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical Modeling Qingdao Marine Science and Technology CenterQingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole(nIOD)can exert great impacts on global climate and can also strongly influence the climate in *** nIOD is a major type of nIOD,which can induce more pronounced climate anomalies in summer than La Niña-related ***,the characteristics and triggering mechanisms of early nIOD are *** results based on reanalysis datasets indicate that the early nIOD and La Niña-related nIOD are the two major types of nIOD,and the former accounts for over one third of all the nIOD events in the past six *** two types of nIODs are similar in their intensities,but are different in their spatial patterns and seasonal *** early nIOD,which develops in spring and peaks in summer,is one season earlier than the La Niña-related *** spatial pattern of the wind anomaly associated with early nIOD exhibits a winter monsoon-like pattern,with strong westerly anomalies in the equatorial Indian Ocean and eastly anomalies in the northern Indian *** to the triggering mechanism of early positve IOD,the early nIOD is induced by delayed Indian summer monsoon *** results of this study are helpful for improving the prediction skill of IOD and its climate impacts.

关键词： Indian Ocean Dipole(IOD) triggering mechanism Indian summer monsoon seasonal cycle negative IOD

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Statistical study of magnetic holes in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock

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Earth and Planetary Physics 2024年第2期8卷 326-337页

作者： GuoQiang Wang SuDong Xiao MingYu Wu YuanQiang Chen TieLong Zhang Institute of Space Science and Applied Technology Harbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Shenzhen Key Laboratory of numerical prediction for Space Storm Harbin Institute of TechnologyShenzhen 518055China Mengcheng National Geophysical Observatory University of Science and Technology of ChinaHefei 230026China Chinese Academy of Sciences center for Excellence in Comparative Planetology Hefei 230026China Space research Institute Austrian Academy of SciencesGrazAustria

Magnetic holes are magnetic depression structures that exist widely in many plasma *** magnetic holes with durations of>1 s in the solar wind at Mercury’s orbit have drawn much attention,but the properties of the magnetic holes with shorter durations are still ***,we investigate the magnetic holes with durations of 0.1-100 s in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock based on observations by the MESSENGER(MErcury Surface,Space ENvironment,GEochemistry,and Ranging)*** can be divided into two groups according to the distribution of their duration:small-duration magnetic holes(SDMHs,0.6 s).The duration of each group approximately obeys a log-normal distribution with a median of~0.25 s and 3 s,*** 1.7%(32.6%)of the SDMHs(LDMHs)reduce the magnetic field strength by more than 50%.For both groups,some structures have a linear or quasi-linear polarization,whereas others have an elliptical *** magnetic hole events in both groups tend to have a higher rate of occurrence when the interplanetary magnetic field strength is *** occurrence rates are also affected by Mercury’s foreshock,which can increase(decrease)the occurrence rate of the SDMHs(LDMHs).This finding suggests that Mercury’s foreshock might be one source of the SDMHs and that the foreshock can destroy some *** observations suggest that a new group of magnetic holes with durations of<0.6 s exist in the upstream region of Mercury’s bow shock.

关键词： magnetic hole solar wind Mercury foreshock

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The main strategies for soil pollution apportionment:A review of the numerical methods

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Journal of Environmental Sciences 2024年第2期136卷 95-109页

作者： Bin Shi Jing Meng TieyuWang Qianqian Li Qifan Zhang Guijin Su research center for Eco-Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100085China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Marine Disaster prediction and Prevention Shantou UniversityShantou 515063China

Nowadays,a large number of compounds with different physical and chemical properties have been determined in *** behaviors and source identification of pollutants in soil are the foundation of soil pollution *** and quantitative analysis of potential pollution sources are the prerequisites for its prevention and *** efforts have made to develop methods for identifying the sources of soil *** efforts have involved the measurement of source and receptor parameters and the analysis of their relationships via numerical statistics *** have comprehensively reviewed the progress made in the development of source apportionment methodologies to date and present our *** numerical methods,such as spatial geostatistics analysis,receptor models,and machine learning methods are addressed in *** most cases,however,the effectiveness of any single approach for source apportionment remains *** multiple methods to address soil quality problems can reduce uncertainty about the sources of soil *** review also constructively highlights the key strategies of combining mathematical models with the assessment of chemical profiles to provide more accurate source *** review intends to provide a comprehensive summary of source apportionment methodologies to help promote further development.

关键词： Soil pollutants Source attribution Methodologies Chemical profiles Mathematical models

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An Evaluation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Forecast over the Western North Pacific and the South China Sea from the CMA-TRAMS

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Journal of Tropical Meteorology 2024年第1期30卷 20-28页

作者：李梦婕陈子通戴光丰田群梁卓轩林青张艳霞 Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional numerical Weather prediction CMAGuangzhou 510641 China State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijing 100081 China Guangdong Meteorological Observatory Guangzhou 510641 China

Tropical cyclone(TC) genesis forecasting is essential for daily operational practices during the typhoon *** updated version of the Tropical Regional Atmosphere Model for the South China Sea(CMA-TRAMS) offers forecasters reliable numerical weather prediction(NWP) products with improved configurations and fine resolution. While traditional evaluation of typhoon forecasts has focused on track and intensity, the increasing accuracy of TC genesis forecasts calls for more comprehensive evaluation methods to assess the reliability of these predictions. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of the CMA-TRAMS for cyclogenesis forecasts over the western North Pacific and South China Sea. Based on previous research and typhoon observation data over five years, a set of localized, objective criteria has been proposed. The analysis results indicate that the CMA-TRAMS demonstrated superiority in cyclogenesis forecasts, predicting 6 out of 22 TCs with a forecast lead time of up to 144 h. Additionally, over 80% of the total could be predicted 72 h in advance. The model also showed an average TC genesis position error of 218.3 km, comparable to the track errors of operational models according to the annual evaluation. The study also briefly investigated the forecast of Noul(2011). The forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS depicted thermal and dynamical conditions that could trigger typhoon genesis, consistent with the analysis field. The 96-hour forecast field of the CMA-TRAMS displayed a relatively organized threedimensional structure of the typhoon. These results can enhance understanding of the mechanism behind typhoon genesis,fine-tune model configurations and dynamical frameworks, and provide reliable forecasts for forecasters.

关键词： CMA-TRAMS cyclogenesis numerical weather prediction tropical cyclone

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Current observation and analysis based on mooring systems in the Andaman Sea

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Journal of Oceanology and Limnology 2024年第2期42卷 484-491页

作者： Yimeng WANG Jingsong GUO Dapeng QU Zhixin ZHANG Chalermrat SANGMANEE Varintha VASINAMEKHIN Binghuo GUO First Institute of Oceanography and Key Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical ModelingMinistry of Natural ResourcesQingdao 266061China Laboratory for Regional Oceanography and numerical Modeling Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology(Qingdao)Qingdao 266237China Shandong Key Laboratory of Marine Science and numerical Modeling Qingdao 266061China Phuket Marine Biological center Department of Marine and Coastal ResourcesPhuket 83000Thailand Marine and Coastal Resources research&Development Institute Department of Marine and Coastal ResourcesBangkok 10210Thailand

The basic structure and intraseasonal evolution of currents in the southeastern Andaman Sea was analyzed based on data collected in 2017 from two subsurface moorings(C1 and C5).Periodic variation in the upper ocean currents of the Andaman Sea was investigated by combining observational and satellite *** observations show that rapid changes of current speed and direction occurred in May and June,with a significant increase in current velocity at the C1 *** the second half of the year,southward flow dominated at the C1 mooring,and alternating northward and southward flows were evident at the C5 mooring during the same period but the northward flow prevailed in boreal *** addition,analysis of the power spectra of the upper currents revealed that the tidal period at both moorings is primarily semidiurnal with weaker energy than that of the low-frequency *** upper ocean currents at the C1 and C5 moorings exhibited intraseasonal variation of 30-60 d and 120 d,while the zonal current at the C1 mooring exhibited a notable period of approximately 180 *** analysis indicated that the variability of currents in the Andaman Sea is influenced primarily by equatorial Kelvin waves and Rossby wave ***,our results suggest that equatorial Kelvin waves from the eastern Indian Ocean entered the Andaman Sea in the form of Wyrtki Jets and propagated primarily along two distinct pathways during the observation *** addition to coastal boundary Kelvin waves,it was found that a branch of the Wyrtki Jet that directly enters the Andaman Sea and flows northward along the slope of the continental shelf,and reflected Rossby wave packets by topography.

关键词： mooring observation Wyrtki Jet Rossby waves intraseasonal variation

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Classification analysis of prediction skill among ensemble members in MJO subseasonal predictions——based on the results of the CAMS-CSM subseasonal prediction system

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Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters 2024年第4期17卷 8-14页

作者： Yihao Peng Xiaolei Liu Jingzhi Su Xinli Liu State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather Chinese Academy of Meteorological SciencesBeijingChina center for Earth System Modeling and prediction of CMA(CEMC) BeijingChina Key Laboratory of Earth System Modeling and prediction China Meteorological Administration BeijingChina

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性... 详细信息

由于模式误差和初始误差所致,次季节-季节预报技巧整体偏低.国际上多数模式都采用集合预报的方式来提高次季节预报的准确率.热带大气季节内振荡(MJO)作为次季节尺度可预报性的重要来源,其预测水平取决于模式性能和MJO事件本身的物理特性.根据中国气象科学研究院气候系统模式次季节预测系统的回报结果,结合不同类型MJO事件的特征,对模式集合成员间的预报技巧进行了分类和比较.在集合成员预报技巧普遍较高的一类MJO事件中,对流异常信号持续时间较长,强度较大,强对流异常中心主要位于印度洋区域,并逐渐东传至西太平洋.在集合成员预报技巧多数较差的MJO事件中,对流异常信号的强度最弱,维持时间最短.在集合成员预报技巧优劣参半的类别中,MJO往往持续时间较短,强度较低,在后续传播过程中,对流异常中心多停驻在海洋性大陆区域.

关键词：次季节-季节预测预报技巧热带大气季节内振荡

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Influences of Graupel Microphysics on CMA-GFS Simulation of Summer Regional Precipitation

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Journal of Meteorological research 2024年第1期38卷 27-38页

作者： Zhe LI Qijun LIU Zhanshan MA CMA Earth System Modeling and prediction Centre China Meteorological Administration(CMA)Beijing 100081

The horizontal resolution of global numerical weather prediction models is continuously developing. However, due to the imperfect precipitation simulation/forecast of these models, the demand for considering riming particles in cloud microphysical schemes in these models is increasing. This study employed the latest versions of global atmospheric reanalysis data (ERA5), the satellite retrieval data of the Global Precipitation Observation Program (GPM),and station precipitation observations to explore the impacts of adding graupel to the cloud microphysical scheme in the China Meteorological Administration-Global Forecast System (CMA-GFS) on summer regional precipitation simulations in four Chinese climate zones. The results verify that the new graupel scheme can enable CMA-GFS to decently predict global graupel distribution, especially in tropical and midlatitude regions. The addition of graupel in the cloud microphysics increases the precipitation simulation in North China, while that in Southwest China is weakened and dispersed. Moreover, graupel scheme increases the precipitation simulations of almost all *** increase in light rain is obvious, and the absolute value of heavy rain is strengthened. This may be because graupel quickly melts into rain after falling out of the zero-temperature layer due to its large mass and fast falling speed, increasing surface precipitation. In summary, the addition of graupel in the cloud microphysical scheme can improve CMA-GFS’s underestimation of strong precipitation.

关键词： graupel cloud microphysical scheme precipitation China Meteorological Administration-Global Forecast System(CMA-GFS) climate zone

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What induced the trend shift of mixed-layer depths in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current region in the mid-1980s?

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第1期43卷 11-21页

作者： Shan Liu Jingzhi Su Huijun Wang Cuijuan Sui Key Laboratory of Marine Hazards Forecasting National Marine Environmental Forecasting CenterMinistry of Natural ResourcesBeijing 100081China center for Earth System Modeling and prediction of CMA Beijing 100081China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China Nansen-Zhu International research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

An obvious trend shift in the annual mean and winter mixed layer depth(MLD)in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC)region was detected during the 1960–2021 *** trends stopped in mid-1980s,followed by a period of weak *** MLD deepening trend difference between the two periods were mainly distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage,the areas north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land,and the central parts of the South Indian *** newly formed ocean current shear due to the meridional shift of the ACC flow axis between the two periods is the dominant driver for the MLD trends shift distributed in the western areas in the Drake Passage and the central parts of the South Indian *** saltier trends in the regions north to Victoria Land and Wilkes Land could be responsible for the strengthening mixing processes in this region.

关键词： mixed layer depth trend shift Antarctic Circumpolar Current(ACC) flow axis

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Understanding Simulated Causes of Damaging Surface Winds in a Derecho-Producing Mesoscale Convective System near the East China Coast Based on Convection-Permitting Simulations

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第11期41卷 2112-2130页

作者： Liping LUO Ming XUE Xin XU Lijuan LI Qiang ZHANG Ziqi FAN College of Civil Aviation Nanjing University of Aeronautics and AstronauticsNanjing 211106China State Key Laboratory of numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Key Laboratory of Mesoscale Severe Weather/Ministry of Education and School of Atmospheric Sciences Nanjing UniversityNanjing 210023China center for Analysis and prediction of Storms and School of Meteorology University of OklahomaNormanOklahoma 73072USA Civil Aviation North China Air Traffic Management Bureau Meteorological center Beijing 100621China

A mesoscale convective system(MCS) occurred over the East China coastal provinces and the East China Sea on 30April 2021, producing damaging surface winds near the coastal city Nantong with observed speeds reaching 45 m s^(–1). A simulation using the Weather research and Forecasting model with a 1.5-km grid spacing generally reproduces the development and subsequent organization of this convective system into an MCS, with an eastward protruding bow segment over the sea. In the simulation, an east-west-oriented high wind swath is generated behind the gust front of the MCS. Descending dry rear-to-front inflows behind the bow and trailing gust front are found to feed the downdrafts in the main precipitation regions. The inflows help to establish spreading cold outflows and enhance the downdrafts through evaporative cooling. Meanwhile, front-to-rear inflows from the south are present, associated with severely rearward-tilted updrafts initially forming over the gust front. Such inflows descend behind(north of) the gust front, significantly enhancing downdrafts and near-surface winds within the cold pool. Consistently, calculated trajectories show that these parcels that contribute to the derecho originate primarily from the region ahead(south) of the east-west-oriented gust front, and dry southwesterly flows in the low-to-middle levels contribute to strong downdrafts within the MCS. Moreover, momentum budget analyses reveal that a large westward-directed horizontal pressure gradient force within the simulated cold pool produced rapid flow acceleration towards Nantong. The analyses enrich the understanding of damaging wind characteristics over coastal East China and will prove helpful to operational forecasters.

关键词： damaging surface winds convection-permitting simulations mesoscale convective system gust front cold pool

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