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Regional climate response to global warming in the source region of the Yellow River and its impact on runoff

Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第3期67卷 843-855页

作者： Yiran ZHANG Degang ZHOU Xiaofeng GUO center for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

The source region of the Yellow River has experienced obvious climate and discharge changes in recent decades due to global warming, which largely affects the water resources and ecological and environmental security in the Yellow River basin. This study analyzed the changes in runoff and several climate factors in the source region of the Yellow River based on the observed discharges at the Tangnag hydrological station, routine meteorological data from China Meteorological Administration(CMA) stations within and near this source region, and several evaporation datasets. The results indicate that the runoff in the source region was relatively abundant from 1960 to 1989 and then declined sharply afterward. It recovered slightly after 2005 but was still below normal—10% less than that during 1960–1989. Similarly, the precipitation amounts in the source region were relatively low in the 1990s, but they increased significantly after 2003, with an average increase of 31.4 mm or 6% more when compared to that in 1960–1989. In addition, the temperatures in the source region continued to rise from 1960 to 2017, and the evaporation levels also showed an upward trend after 1990. The influences of the spatial and temporal variations in climatic factors on runoff in the source region were then further analyzed. The results indicate that the decreases in precipitation and the number of days of heavy rainfall in the source region from 1990 to 2002 were important reasons for the lower runoff during this period. After 2003, the precipitation in the southeastern part of the source region, which is a key area for runoff generation,increased only to a limited extent, but the evaporation in the entire source region generally increased with increasing temperature,which might have led to the low capacity for actual runoff production in each subbasin and persistent low runoff in the source region. Therefore, such a climate response to global warming in the source region might be unfavorable for increased runoff in the future. The above

关键词： The source region of the Yellow River Climate response Runoff variation Evaporation Precipitation

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Understanding the Low Predictability of the 2015/16 El Niño Event Based on a Deep Learning Model

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第7期41卷 1313-1325页

作者： Tingyu WANG Ping HUANG Xianke YANG center for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China National Space Science center Chinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China State Key Laboratory of Space Weather National Space Science CenterChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100190China College of Plant Science and Technology Huazhong Agricultural UniversityWuhan 430070China

The 2015/16 El Niño event ranks among the top three of the last 100 years in terms of intensity,but most dynamical models had a relatively low prediction skill for this event before the summer months.Therefore,the attribution of this particular event can help us to understand the cause of super El Niño–Southern Oscillation events and how to forecast them skillfully.The present study applies attribute methods based on a deep learning model to study the key factors related to the formation of this event.A deep learning model is trained using historical simulations from 21 CMIP6 models to predict the Niño-3.4 index.The integrated gradient method is then used to identify the key signals in the North Pacific that determine the evolution of the Niño-3.4 index.These crucial signals are then masked in the initial conditions to verify their roles in the prediction.In addition to confirming the key signals inducing the super El Niño event revealed in previous attribution studies,we identify the combined contribution of the tropical North Atlantic and the South Pacific oceans to the evolution and intensity of this event,emphasizing the crucial role of the interactions among them and the North Pacific.This approach is also applied to other El Niño events,revealing several new precursor signals.This study suggests that the deep learning method is useful in attributing the key factors inducing extreme tropical climate events.

关键词： ENSO attribution deep learning ENSO prediction extreme El Niño

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Arctic Sea Ice Variations in the First Half of the 20th Century:A New Reconstruction Based on Hydrometeorological Data

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1483-1495+1686-1693页

作者： Vladimir A.SEMENOV Tatiana A.ALDONINA Fei LI Noel Sebastian KEENLYSIDE Lin WANG A.M.Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS Institute of Geography RAS Geophysical Institute University of Bergen and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing center center for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of Sciences

The shrinking Arctic sea-ice area（SIA） in recent decades is a striking manifestation of the ongoing climate change.Variations of the Arctic sea ice have been continuously observed by satellites since 1979, relatively well monitored since the 1950s, but are highly uncertain in the earlier period due to a lack of observations. Several reconstructions of the historical gridded sea-ice concentration（SIC） data were recently presented based on synthesized regional sea-ice observations or by applying a hybrid model–empirical approach. Here, we present an SIC reconstruction for the period1901–2019 based on established co-variability between SIC and surface air temperature, sea surface temperature, and sea level pressure patterns. The reconstructed sea-ice data for March and September are compared to the frequently used Had ISST1.1 and SIBT1850 datasets. Our reconstruction shows a large decrease in SIA from the 1920 to 1940 concurrent with the Early 20th Century Warming event in the Arctic. Such a negative SIA anomaly is absent in Had ISST1.1 data. The amplitude of the SIA anomaly reaches about 0.8 mln km2in March and 1.5 mln km2in September. The anomaly is about three times stronger than that in the SIBT1850 dataset. The larger decrease in SIA in September is largely due to the stronger SIC reduction in the western sector of the Arctic Ocean in the 70°–80°N latitudinal zone. Our reconstruction provides gridded monthly data that can be used as boundary conditions for atmospheric reanalyses and model experiments to study the Arctic climate for the first half of the 20th century.

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Superiority of a Convolutional Neural Network Model over Dynamical Models in Predicting Central Pacific ENSO

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第1期41卷 141-154页

作者： Tingyu WANG Ping HUANG center for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Collaborative Innovation center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing 100049China

The application of deep learning is fast developing in climate prediction,in which El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO),as the most dominant disaster-causing climate event,is a key target.Previous studies have shown that deep learning methods possess a certain level of superiority in predicting ENSO indices.The present study develops a deep learning model for predicting the spatial pattern of sea surface temperature anomalies(SSTAs)in the equatorial Pacific by training a convolutional neural network(CNN)model with historical simulations from CMIP6 models.Compared with dynamical models,the CNN model has higher skill in predicting the SSTAs in the equatorial western-central Pacific,but not in the eastern Pacific.The CNN model can successfully capture the small-scale precursors in the initial SSTAs for the development of central Pacific ENSO to distinguish the spatial mode up to a lead time of seven months.A fusion model combining the predictions of the CNN model and the dynamical models achieves higher skill than each of them for both central and eastern Pacific ENSO.

关键词： ENSO diversity deep learning ENSO prediction dynamical forecast system

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Characteristics of super drought in Southwest China and the associated compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies

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Science China Earth Sciences 2024年第7期67卷 2084-2102页

作者： Lin WANG Wen CHEN Gang HAUNG Ting WANG Qiulin WANG Xiaoyun SU Zixuan REN Chakrit CHOTAMONSAK Atsamon LIMSAKUL Kritanai TORSRI CAS Key Laboratory of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Heavy Rain and Drought-Flood Disasters in Plateau and Basin Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Chengdu 610072China Department of Atmospheric Science Yunnan UniversityKunming 650500China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Carbon Neutrality research center Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Hangzhou Meteorological Bureau Hangzhou 310051China center for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Geography Faculty of Social SciencesChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand Environmental Science research center Faculty of ScienceChiang Mai UniversityChiang Mai 50200Thailand Climate Change and Environmental research center TechnopolisKlong 5Klong LuangPathumthani 12120Thailand Hydro-Informatics Innovation Division Hydro-Informatics InstituteMinistry of Higher EducationScienceResearch and InnovationBangkok 10900Thailand

In recent decades,Southwest China(SWC)has suffered from frequent super droughts,leading to severe economic losses and ecological degradation.This study investigates the characteristics of super droughts in SWC during 1961-2022,reveals the compounding effect of multiscalar anomalies,and explores the plausible atmospheric circulation mechanisms responsible.The nature of super drought is a compound drought caused by the superposition of extreme drought events across multiple time scales.By contrasting the typical drought cases in 2006 and 2022,the decisive role of multiscalar drought compounding is confirmed.Based on the Comprehensive Multiscalar Index(CMI),multiple super drought events in SWC were identified to be temporally clustered during 2006-2014.Among them,the decadal background of enhanced evaporation and precipitation deficit at long time scales is a necessary condition for shaping the overall pattern of super droughts,while the precipitation and evaporation anomalies at short time scales trigger the outbreak of super droughts,determining the exact timing of occurrence.These events include August-September 2006,November 2009 to May 2010,July-October 2011,April-May 2012,January-April 2013,etc.Statistical results suggest that the contribution of superposed precipitation anomalies to super drought is 2.4 times that of evaporation.As regards the circulation mechanisms affecting multiscalar precipitation,the anomalous spatial patterns at short-term and long-term scales are similar,featuring the cyclonic circulation over the South China Sea and the northeasterly wind anomalies together with the subsidence center over SWC.During 2006-2014,the possible causes for the cross-seasonal persistent precipitation reduction in SWC are the extreme negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)in the North Pacific as well as the pronounced warming of the warm pool in the western Pacific.The key dynamic processes are outlined as follows.On the one hand,the negative PDO phase generates anomalous anticyclonic circulatio

关键词： Super drought Multiscalar Compounding effect Mechanism analysis Southwest China

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Will the Globe Encounter the Warmest Winter after the Hottest Summer in 2023?

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第4期41卷 581-586页

作者： Fei ZHENG Shuai HU Jiehua MA Lin WANG Kexin LI Bo WU Qing BAO Jingbei PENG Chaofan LI Haifeng ZONG Yao YAO Baoqiang TIAN Hong CHEN Xianmei LANG Fangxing FAN Xiao DONG Yanling ZHAN Tao ZHU Tianjun ZHOU Jiang ZHU International center for Climate and Environment Science(ICCES) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Nansen-Zhu International research Centre(NZC) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China center for monsoon System research(CMSR) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China CAS Key Lab of Regional Climate-Environment for Temperate East Asia(RCE-TEA) Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China

In the boreal summer and autumn of 2023,the globe experienced an extremely hot period across both oceans and continents.The consecutive record-breaking mean surface temperature has caused many to speculate upon how the global temperature will evolve in the coming 2023/24 boreal winter.In this report,as shown in the multi-model ensemble mean(MME)prediction released by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Chinese Academy of Sciences,a medium-to-strong eastern Pacific El Niño event will reach its mature phase in the following 2−3 months,which tends to excite an anomalous anticyclone over the western North Pacific and the Pacific-North American teleconnection,thus serving to modulate the winter climate in East Asia and North America.Despite some uncertainty due to unpredictable internal atmospheric variability,the global mean surface temperature(GMST)in the 2023/24 winter will likely be the warmest in recorded history as a consequence of both the El Niño event and the long-term global warming trend.Specifically,the middle and low latitudes of Eurasia are expected to experience an anomalously warm winter,and the surface air temperature anomaly in China will likely exceed 2.4 standard deviations above climatology and subsequently be recorded as the warmest winter since 1991.Moreover,the necessary early warnings are still reliable in the timely updated mediumterm numerical weather forecasts and sub-seasonal-to-seasonal prediction.

关键词： winter climate El Niño seasonal forecast GMST

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COP 28: Challenge of coping with climate crisis

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The Innovation 2024年第1期5卷 21-22页

作者： Tong Jiang Xiaojia He Buda Su Peni Hausia Havea Ke Wei Zbigniew W.Kundzewicz Dong Liu research Institute of Climatic and Environmental Governance/Institute for Disaster Risk Management School of Geographical ScienceNanjing University of Information Science&TechnologyNanjing 210044China The Administrative center for China’s Agenda 21 Beijing 100038China Pacific Global Solution Nuku’alofaTongatapu 000676Tonga Centre for monsoon System research Institute of Atmospheric PhysicsChinese Academy of SciencesBeijing 100029China Department of Environmental Engineering and Mechanical Engineering Poznan University of Life Sciences60-637 PoznanPoland The Paper Shanghai United Media GroupShanghai 200040China

The 28th Conference of Parties(COP 28)of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC)is being held in Dubai,United Arab Emirates,from November 30 to December 12,2023,with the participation of over 160 world leaders(Figure 1).The tone of the COP 28 is set by the observation that,clearly,the nationally determined contributions related to CO_(2) emission reduction are not on track to curb the temperature rise as per the Paris Agreement.In order to hold the increase in global mean temperature to well below 2℃ above the pre-industrial level and to pursue efforts to limit the warming to 1.5℃,there is a need for ratcheting up ambition for near-term climate action.

关键词： Figure limit COP

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Time-lagged Effects of the Spring Atmospheric Heat Source over the Tibetan Plateau on Summer Precipitation in Northeast China during 1961–2020:Role of Soil Moisture

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第8期41卷 1527-1538页

作者： Yizhe HAN Dabang JIANG Dong SI Yaoming MA Weiqiang MA Institute of Atmospheric Physics Chinese Academy of Sciences State Key Laboratory of Tibetan Plateau Earth System Environment and Resources (TPESER)Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research Chinese Academy of Sciences National Institute of Natural Hazards Ministry of Emergency Management of China University of Chinese Academy of Sciences College of Atmospheric Sciences Lanzhou University National Observation and research Station for Qomolongma Special Atmospheric Processes and Environmental Changes Kathmandu center of research and Education Chinese Academy of Sciences China-Pakistan Joint research center on Earth Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences

The spring atmospheric heat source(AHS) over the Tibetan Plateau(TP) has been suggested to affect the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation over South China. However, its influence on the summer precipitation in Northeast China(NEC) remains unknown. The connection between spring TP AHS and subsequent summer precipitation over NEC from 1961 to 2020 is analyzed in this study. Results illustrate that stronger spring TP AHS can enhance subsequent summer NEC precipitation, and higher soil moisture in the Yellow River Valley-North China region(YRVNC)acts as a bridge. During spring, the strong TP AHS could strengthen the transportation of water vapor to East China and lead to excessive rainfall in the YRVNC. Thus, soil moisture increases, which regulates local thermal conditions by decreasing local surface skin temperature and sensible heat. Owing to the memory of soil moisture, the lower spring sensible heat over the YRVNC can last until mid-summer, decrease the land–sea thermal contrast, and weaken the southerly winds over the East Asia–western Pacific region and convective activities over the South China Sea and tropical western Pacific. This modulates the East Asia–Pacific teleconnection pattern, which leads to a cyclonic anomaly and excessive summer precipitation over NEC.

关键词： atmospheric heat source Northeast China soil moisture summer precipitation Tibetan Plateau

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Coral records of Mid-Holocene sea-level highstands and climate responses in the northern South China Sea

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Acta Oceanologica Sinica 2024年第2期43卷 43-57页

作者： Yuanfu Yue Lichao Tang Kefu Yu Rongyong Huang School of Marine Sciences Coral Reef Research Center of ChinaGuangxi UniversityNanning 530004China Guangxi Laboratory on the Study of Coral Reefs in the South China Sea Nanning 530004China

High-resolution sea-level data and high-precision dating of corals in the northern South China Sea(SCS)during the Holocene provide a reference and historical background for current and future sea-level changes and a basis for scientific assessment of the evolutionary trend of coral reefs in the SCS.Although sporadic studies have been performed around Hainan Island in the northern SCS,the reconstructed sea level presents different values or is controversial because the indicative meaning of the sea-level indicators were neither quantified nor uniform criteria.Here,we determined the quantitative relationship between modern living coral and sea level by measuring the top surfaces of 27 live Porites corals from the inner reef flat along the east coast of Hainan Island and assessed the accuracy of results obtained using coral as sea-level indicators.Additionally,three in situ fossil Porites corals were analyzed based on elevation measurements,digital X-ray radiography,and U-Th dating.The survey results showed that the indicative meanings for the modern live Porites corals is(146.09±8.35)cm below the mean tide level(MTL).It suggested that their upward growth limit is constrained by the sea level,and the lowest low water is the highest level of survival for the modern live Porites corals.Based on the newly defined indicative meanings,6 new sea-level index points(SLIPs)were obtained and 19 published SLIPs were recalculated.Those SLIPs indicated a relative sea level fluctuation between(227.7±9.8)cm to(154.88±9.8)cm MTL between(5393±25)cal a BP and(3390±12)cal a BP,providing evidences of the Mid-Holocene sea-level highstand in the northern SCS.Besides that,our analysis demonstrated that different sea-level histories may be produced based on different indicative meanings or criteria.The dataset of 276 coral U-Th ages indicates that coral reef development in the northern SCS comprised the initial development,boom growth,decline,and flourishing development again.A comparison with regional records indicated that synergistic ef

关键词： northern South China Sea Middle Holocene sea-level highstand Porites corals climate response

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Influence of Irregular Coastlines on a Tornadic Mesovortex in the Pearl River Delta during the monsoon Season. Part Ⅰ:Pre-storm Environment and Storm Evolution

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Advances in Atmospheric Sciences 2024年第6期41卷 1115-1131页

作者： Lanqiang BAI Dan YAO Zhiyong MENG Yu ZHANG Xianxiang HUANG Zhaoming LI Xiaoding YU Foshan Tornado research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryGuangdong Meteorological Serviceand Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory(Zhuhai)Guangdong 528000China Meteorological Observation Centre CMABeijing 100081China Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratorySchool of PhysicsPeking UniversityBeijing 100871China Guangzhou Meteorological Observatory CMAGuangdong 511430China Foshan Tornado research center and China Meteorological Administration Tornado Key LaboratoryCMAGuangdong 528000China China Meteorological Administration Training center CMABeijing 528000China

The Pearl River Delta(PRD),a tornado hotspot,forms a distinct trumpet-shaped coastline that concaves toward the South China Sea.During the summer monsoon season,low-level southwesterlies over the PRD’s sea surface tend to be turned toward the west coast,constituting a convergent wind field along with the landward-side southwesterlies,which influences regional convective weather.This two-part study explores the roles of this unique land–sea contrast of the trumpet-shaped coastline in the formation of a tornadic mesovortex within monsoonal flows in this region.Part I primarily presents observational analyses of pre-storm environments and storm evolutions.The rotating storm developed in a lowshear environment(not ideal for a supercell)under the interactions of three air masses under the influence of the land–sea contrast,monsoon,and storm cold outflows.This intersection zone(or“triple point”)is typically characterized by local enhancements of ambient vertical vorticity and convergence.Based on a rapid-scan X-band phased-array radar,finger-like echoes were recognized shortly after the gust front intruded on the triple point.Developed over the triple point,they rapidly wrapped up with a well-defined low-level mesovortex.It is thus presumed that the triple point may have played roles in the mesovortex genesis,which will be demonstrated in Part II with multiple sensitivity numerical simulations.The findings also suggest that when storms pass over the boundary intersection zone in the PRD,the expected possibility of a rotating storm occurring is relatively high,even in a low-shear environment.Improved knowledge of such environments provides additional guidance to assess the regional tornado risk.

关键词： tornado mesovortex surface boundary land–sea contrast monsoon

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